My long take, skip over if you want....
The NFL is nowhere near being over saturated imo. 16 games per team make nearly every game relevant. Even 18 would be fine, perhaps even ideal from a fans perspective, but player wise is a longshot.
But that doesn't mean the NFL doesn't face some potential problems down the road. Goodell has been massively tinkering with the NFL. Like rugby said so great about ignoring real issues and tinkering with what already works. In many ways those changes piss off fans and make little to no sense. This could become a problem. But we haven't reached that point yet, and any rules implemented can be reversed. He's also made a couple of decent decisions. But Cuban makes a good deal of sense when talking about what is basically hubris and how it can negatively affect anything, the NFL included. Given enough time on top, and enough idiotic moves and business deal maneuvers, the NFL too could fall prey to such a trap.
I don't think the NFL is going for NFL football being on every day. As is we have Thursday through Monday football from JV high school through Pros. But the NFL on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday...with the vast majority on Sunday is not a big deal. I like the Saturday playoff games. I also think that for the most part they try to not conflict with college football.
It's not the NFL's fault that the college bowl system and playoffs are expanding into NFL playoff territory. It's the NCAA that will get the blowback from its hubris, if any. But overall this is a small issue as I don't see people losing interest in the NFL because their college team's bowl game might come on during an NFL playoff game. The biggest game of the year, the Superbowl is well outside the college timeframe. So you might have some specific conflicts in various locales, but for the most part, they can co-exist.
It is funny though, the NCAA is the one that keeps encroaching on the NFL with more average games per season per college team, more and later dated bowl games, and now a playoff system after having all these bowl games. It's no wonder the NFL has over the course of Jim Kelly and Troy Aikman to Russell Wilson and Kaepernick been pushing the Superbowl from late January into February. As an added bonus it might also help with weather, and if they ever do go to 18 games and add an extra bye week, it would probably then push the NFL playoffs back past the college one.
Ticket prices are both a big and small deal. As long as people can watch the NFL on tv, it takes the pressure off. Most NFL fans rarely go to games, even if they live in an NFL market. But the prices have long been crazy and are now approaching Rockefeller-esque in some places (which is one reason why). The problem is much more prevalent in bigger markets with more competition for tickets, as well as housing bubble inflated prices of land and stadiums which resulted in some open air stadiums costing over a billion to build. Yes that is a housing bubble tax on your Giants ticket ma'am.
So whether you are talking about the insane money given by networks that the networks then must justify in higher advertising costs to advertisers which in turn raises prices on the goods we buy and cable packages we subscribe to in an ever deepening depression, then yes, there can come a breaking point on that. I do think it's amazing the TV deal they got in recent years that powers the current CBA and salary cap. So I agree on that point we could have something happen. Maybe one of the networks collapse under the weight or something. How many TV series could be funded for $1 billion? I'm sure a lot.
In depressions, while more and more have a lower standard of living, there are still pockets that remain lavish. So like in the great depression, while you had long soup lines, you also had plenty of lavish parties. The NFL has such a broad reach and people have such a deep affection for the sport, it should withstand much more pressure being applied then other sports or industries. It's one of the ones that will have a much greater chance of surviving and it should take much more to topple or collapse it.
A network collapse could be a major blow, but at least in the NFL all player contracts are not guaranteed. So teams could survive.
Personally when I read Cuban's comments yesterday, I was thinking he was actually using the NFL as a metaphor to attack the NBA and it's downward path since the lockout/Jordan retired.
Because what I see going on with the NBA is far closer to what Cuban was talking about, then the NFL. The NBA is nothing like it was in the 80's and 90's, and hubris helped create that. But it also was never sustainable from a competitive standpoint. They kept adding teams when they shouldn't of had. Now we have a long history with a bunch of mediocre teams that have no chance to win a championship, and only a couple of teams have a shot. We as fans know that. What is it, something like 7 or 8 different teams have won every championship since the late 70's?
All-star weekend has become a joke. They stopped getting marquee names for dunk contests, and now have to resort to crap that makes the dunk contests unwatchable and the judges scoring it just as bad. At this point all the tinkering only makes the weekend worse.
We have some crazy conference disparity between the West and East, where say the Suns would be doing quite well in the East, but whether the Suns or someone else fails to make the playoffs, a team worthy to make it, won't. But some pretty bad teams will be making the playoffs in the East.
True we have that in the NFL, but it doesn't happen every year, in the NBA it happens every year, and usually to multiple teams, and that's with having 8 playoff spots per conference. But of course since there is such disparity at the top, in a 1 vs 8 matchup, even a worthy 8 has virtually no shot. Often times it's the same for 2 vs 7 and sometimes even beyond. In the NFL, any given Sunday the worst team can beat the best team. So when playoffs roll around nothing is a given, and of course the whole format of having a playoff series versus one game is a big reason why.
Personally I think having the top 16 regardless of conference in the NBA would be a better choice.
In the NFL each game matters, in the NBA the playoffs are almost a season themselves, and besides your team, there isn't really much meaning in watching until at least the 2nd round of it.
Part of it also has to do with the setup. In the NBA the players get their money and there is no reason to cut someone. In the NFL players can get cut and lose their money and the hard salary cap forces moves. This does help level the playing field. Perhaps the new uber luxury tax (and 3 year penalty that increases it again) can change some of this. Most likely not. Some of this comes down to the sport itself. Because in the end, the top players create the disparity, and the top players won't be cut.
In the NBA you don't need to be smart to win, you just need to get lucky and get a hold of the few superstar players of the decade. The LeBron's, Shaq's, Kobe's, Jordan's, Duncan's, etc. One or two players can put you on the easy path the win/compete for championships for a decade. They are no brainer picks. Hell in the NBA you only have 2 rounds of the draft, and everyone knows most of the picks will turn out as nothing.
Jerry Colangelo was shrewd, and he gave us years and years of winning basketball, but never that title. Because we didn't have Jordan, and couldn't overcome Tim Donaghy aiding the Spurs with Duncan.
In the NFL we have a stark contrast where shrewd moves in many areas - cap, draft, free agency, coaching, scouting, etc. can all make or break a team. Defense wins championships. Offense can win championships. You can have Trent Dilfer winning a ring, and Manning after the best season for a QB ever can lose 43-8 in a Superbowl. The Seahawks defense made Manning look horrible. Turned him into Matt Leinart as the new Captain checkdown. You have 22 starting spots plus special teams and not just five. You have 7 rounds of the draft, and many of the guys drafted low can be big contributors, and even on rare occasion, a Tom Brady.
Plus again in the NFL, your team only plays once a week, sometimes shifted to Thursday, which then you need to wait about 10 days afterwards for the next game, or similarly with Monday night with 6 days. Anticipation grows, and with only 16 games you are always left wanting more. (unless you really suck and you really want the offseason to come in hopes of improving your team)
There are things the NFL should worry about, and that correspond with Cuban's comments, but saturation isn't it. I love Thursday football. I don't really like it when it happens with the Cardinals because you never know how it impacts your team, but other teams? I couldn't care less. No matter who plays, I still want to watch it. Sometimes it could be say, a Texans vs Jaguars matchup, but I'd still rather watch that then most NBA games, even some NBA playoff games.
The NBA, MLB, and NHL is saturation. Meaningless games being played every day for months. Look at baseball. About 30 games of Spring training. 162 regular season. Then multiple rounds of playoff series. February to November. That's saturation. But it survives, and has for over a hundred years. Even before ~1962 they played 154 games, so it's been saturated for a long while. So all these other sports survive with many more games per team, longer seasons, and many more meaningless games. The NFL faces issues, mostly involving hubris like Cuban suggested, but saturation isn't one of them.
I'd say the increasing costs of televising it, along with idiotic rule changes and gimmick proposals (no kickoffs, long xp's, idiotic safety rules, etc) are the manifestation of hubris Cuban should focus on. But again, I think he's doing a two-fer, lambasting the NBA, and warning the NFL that it could be next. Indeed it could be, but it has a lot of rope left to hang itself with, and the implosion won't come via saturation.
It is true though that since television makes up a larger percentage of revenue then these other sports (a guess, but a solid one), then any decrease in what they gain would impact the league more. But as I said, contracts aren't guaranteed, so a blood-letting spree could happen and suddenly every team's accounting books can rapidly decrease their expenditures.
Fans of the NFL have a reason to be invested, because there is no Lebron in the NFL. It's a team sport, not a one man show.
I'm all for prudent safety, but not stupid safety. I also believe rather then changing rules in a violent game where the risks are known, now more then ever, they could increase safety a whole bunch more via better equipment. They can make rules like concussion rules, baseline assessment, and increase awareness of the issue, etc. Sure there are flaws, but they can do it. If someone cheats it, then they won't have a good lawsuit and know what they are doing.
The NFL's helmet investment is a joke, and they can do alot more in other areas. A good rule was to force players to wear their pads. They should also help research better equipment, materials, designs, etc.
