Pac 12 Football predictions

[Absolute Zero]

Well the PAC 12 media poll is in:

UCLA finished with 12 first-place votes and 135 overall points to edge Arizona State in the South division. The Sun Devils collected 10 first-place points and 130 points. USC picked up four first-place votes.
South Division
1. UCLA (12), 135.
2. ASU (10), 130.
3. USC (4), 117.
4. Arizona, 76.
5. Utah, 60.
6. Colorado, 28.
In the North, Oregon had 15 first-place votes and 145 overall points. The Ducks, under first-year coach Mark Helfrich, edged Stanford by six points. The Cardinal had 11 first-place votes and 139 points.
North Division
1. Oregon (15), 145.
2. Stanford (11), 139.
3. Oregon State, 95.
4. Washington, 84.
5. California, 47.
6. Washington State, 33.
Media picked Oregon to win the Pac-12 championship game

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/colleges/articles/20130726pac-12-football-media-poll-2013-asu-second-south-arizona-fourth.html


Seems about what I expected. Whether the season will actually play out that way or not, well....

 

[Absolute Zero]

In the interest of full disclosure, I am drinking the ASU Koolaid. With that out of the way, here's my predictions:

South Division
1. ASU
2. USC
3. UCLA
4. Arizona
5. Colorado
6. Utah

North Division
1. Stanford
2. Oregon
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. Washington State
6. California

 

[HooverDam]

My completely random guesses:

South
1. ASU
2. USC
3. UCLA
4. UofA
5. Utah
6. Colorado

I took SC over UCLA just because UCLA has to go to Oregon and to Stanford, that's tough. SC misses Oregon and plays the Cardinal at home. SC could theoretically lose to UCLA and still finish ahead of them.

UofA, with their insanely weak schedule, ought to be able to eek into a bowl at 6-6, but I think they're very likely to be 7-5 (losses to ASU, SC, UCLA, Washington & Oregon).

North
1. Stanford
2. Oregon
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. Wazzu
6. Cal

Wazzu could very well finish in the basement again, that was kind of a coin flip w/ Cal. Only put Wazzu 4 because they're in year 2 of Leach versus year 1 of Dykes for Cal.

Oregon and Stanford is a total toss up as well. The game is in Palo Alto, and they're not dealing with a coaching change, so thats why I went w/ Stanford.

 

[Absolute Zero]

Good picks. Its almost like you have to go against conventional wisdom if you want any chance at predicting them correctly. The preseason experts are seldom 100% accurate. There are always a few surprises.

 

[Absolute Zero]

USC goes down to Washington State at home. Wow. Especially after the fiasco's last season, USC's program seems to be in decline.

 

[Russ Smith]

USC goes down to Washington State at home. Wow. Especially after the fiasco's last season, USC's program seems to be in decline.

Combination of a crappy coach and having to compete on a even playing field because of the NCAA sanctions IMO. Not really even since they got docked scholarships but they went from stockpiling talent in part because they were cheating, to being like everyone else with far less depth than before.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Combination of a crappy coach and having to compete on a even playing field because of the NCAA sanctions IMO. Not really even since they got docked scholarships but they went from stockpiling talent in part because they were cheating, to being like everyone else with far less depth than before.

More to do with having terrible QB's but yes that has to do with the coaching angle.

 

[Russ Smith]

More to do with having terrible QB's but yes that has to do with the coaching angle.

Yeah and IMO it also has to do with the NCAA sanctions angle. Not as easy to recruit a highly touted QB and get him to sit like it was during Pete's years.

So they had to take some chances on QB's and right now it's not clear they have one.

Barkley was a solid QB for them for 4 years, but they weren't able to convince another touted one to sit behind him, in the past it was ea$y to do so.

 

[Absolute Zero]

Yeah and IMO it also has to do with the NCAA sanctions angle. Not as easy to recruit a highly touted QB and get him to sit like it was during Pete's years.

So they had to take some chances on QB's and right now it's not clear they have one.

Barkley was a solid QB for them for 4 years, but they weren't able to convince another touted one to sit behind him, in the past it was ea$y to do so.

Don't they still have a bunch of 4 and 5 star recruits on there at other positions? If you compare their recruiting classes to ASU's, I am guessing USC's were ranked higher than ASU's

 

[Gaddabout]

Don't they still have a bunch of 4 and 5 star recruits on there at other positions? If you compare their recruiting classes to ASU's, I am guessing USC's were ranked higher than ASU's

I'm with you. I tend to think the entire offensive staff is making a stable of talent look awful. They don't have a teacher at any position. They have professional coaches, and pro coaches tend to not understand why players don't know what they know. That, and Lane Kiffin is a horrible details guy -- I don't care that Pat Haden thinks otherwise.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

I don't agree with the premise that USC got heralded recruits because they cheated and their struggles are due to a level playing field FYI. They're still bringing in monster classes and are stocked with NFL talent even with the harsh NCAA penalties. It's just really hard to win when you can't move the ball on offense. Much of that has to do with Lane's horrendous offense and coaching. They'll probably win 10 games next year when they bring in somebody who's not a total con artist.

 

[TucsonDevil]

It's early and I've already I seen a few surprises... Yes, USC losing to WSU was a surprise, but Oregon State losing to lowly Eastern Washington was a killer. Utah beating Utah State was a big surprise, IMO... not to mention the way the Huskies took care of Boise State.

I still think ASU finishes first in the South (yeah, I'm a homer), and Oregon is first in the North - but the Conference is strong and wins on the road are going to be tough for everyone (Oregon has to play Stanford and Washington on the road). If there is one team that has a relatively easier road schedule, it is Stanford - that might make the difference is winning the North.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Still so early and of course, anything can happen... But, my two pennies worth is: I think the South will ultimately boil down to ASU and UCLA. If Kiffen weren't the coach at USC, I would put them there alongside UCLA and take out ASU, as ASU has a brutal schedule...
I think the North will be boil down to Oregon and Stanford. I think Oregon is the better team and I think they have a slightly easier schedule than that of Stanford...

Oregon will then easily win the Pac-12 Championship as ASU, UCLA or USC are not in the same stratosphere as Oregon...

 

[AzStevenCal]

It's early and I've already I seen a few surprises... Yes, USC losing to WSU was a surprise, but Oregon State losing to lowly Eastern Washington was a killer. Utah beating Utah State was a big surprise, IMO... not to mention the way the Huskies took care of Boise State.

I still think ASU finishes first in the South (yeah, I'm a homer), and Oregon is first in the North - but the Conference is strong and wins on the road are going to be tough for everyone (Oregon has to play Stanford and Washington on the road). If there is one team that has a relatively easier road schedule, it is Stanford - that might make the difference is winning the North.

It does hurt the conference profile but "lowly" is probably a bit harsh. Yes, they are an FCS team but they lost in the semis last year and won their championship 2 years before that. They played UW and WSU once each over the past two years and lost both games by a combined 7 points. I have no idea how the Beavers ended up 27 point favorites especially since they are geographic rivals and the state of Oregon is well represented on the Eagles. I agree with most everything else you said there though.

Steve

 

[Dback Jon]

It does hurt the conference profile but "lowly" is probably a bit harsh. Yes, they are an FCS team but they lost in the semis last year and won their championship 2 years before that. They played UW and WSU once each over the past two years and lost both games by a combined 7 points. I have no idea how the Beavers ended up 27 point favorites especially since they are geographic rivals and the state of Oregon is well represented on the Eagles. I agree with most everything else you said there though.

Steve

Yup - using Sagarin ratings (not perfect, but a good guide), EWU ended 2012 rated higher than 41 FBS teams, including 9 from "power conferences", including several Pac-12 teams.

 

[Absolute Zero]

some of these preseason predictions are already going by the wayside. The PAC 12 Media poll is hanging in there in several respects. This weekend will be huge though

 

[Absolute Zero]

USC won handily at Oregon State last night. And Oregon State went into the game 6-2 with a pretty good season so far and an impressive passing game. It may be that USC is getting its act together under their new coach. If they keep this up, this is good news for ASU fans.

We already have the tie breaker against them, but the best thing is that they play our main challenger for the Pac 12 South, UCLA, to close out the season. Although USC is bowl eligible, they will be looking at the UCLA game as the biggest game of the year. And with USC's tough defense I like their chances.

Here's the current Pac 12 standings with ASU in first place in the South.

http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/ncf/conferences/standings?confId=9&year=2013

That really doesn't mean anything at this point in the season especially with several challenging games still ahead for ASU. Here's who we play:

@Utah
Oregon State
@UCLA
Arizona

But check this out. I would argue that UCLA has an even tougher road ahead. They play:

@ Arizona
Washington
Arizona State
"@" USC

So although anything can still happen, I like our our current mojo, and I like our chances of winning the Pac 12 South at this point.

 

[82CardsGrad]

One week at a time... Utah on Saturday is a MUST win!


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[Absolute Zero]

Ducks could be in trouble here

 

[Absolute Zero]

Yep, the Ducks loss to Stanford makes the North interesting.

Stanford still has to play at USC and the Ducks have to go down to Tucson and also play Oregon State

 

[82CardsGrad]

That Stanford win could be huge for the Devils... If ASU can take care of their own business, they could set up a rematch vs Stanford for the PAC 12 Championship! Which I like a ton better versus a matchup with the Ducks...


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[Absolute Zero]

That Stanford win could be huge for the Devils... If ASU can take care of their own business, they could set up a rematch vs Stanford for the PAC 12 Championship! Which I like a ton better versus a matchup with the Ducks...


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Wouldn't that be awesome. I would love to see that. Hopefully, ASU can keep playing well and get there.

 

[Absolute Zero]

That Stanford win could be huge for the Devils... If ASU can take care of their own business, they could set up a rematch vs Stanford for the PAC 12 Championship! Which I like a ton better versus a matchup with the Ducks...


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Bingo!

 

[Absolute Zero]

Well, here's how the North/South standings finished up, the Pac 12-Media was wrong again by picking UCLA and Oregon in the Championship at the start of the season:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/standings

Pac-12 Standings
NORTH CONF OVERALL
* - Stanford 7-2 10-2
* - Oregon 7-2 10-2
* - Washington 5-4 8-4
* - Oregon State 4-5 6-6
* - Washington State 4-5 6-6
x - California 0-9 1-11

SOUTH CONF OVERALL
* - Arizona State 8-1 10-2
* - UCLA 6-3 9-3
* - USC 6-3 9-4
* - Arizona 4-5 7-5
x - Utah 2-7 5-7
x - Colorado 1-8 4-8

 

[HooverDam]

My completely random guesses:

South
1. ASU
2. USC
3. UCLA
4. UofA
5. Utah
6. Colorado


North
1. Stanford
2. Oregon
3. Oregon State
4. Washington
5. Wazzu
6. Cal

I was pretty close! I mixed up USC and UCLA, and also Oregon St and Washington, but otherwise pretty good. Got the division champs right, thats the key thing.