Palmer is a very good QB...

Russ Smith

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I'd be pretty surprised if the Colts don't lock Andrew Luck up for years. He may not be in a perfect situation right now but they are not stupid, they remember what it was like before Manning and what it's been like since Luck. They don't want to go down that route again.

I would be ecstatic to see the Cards get him and yeah I'd trade 2 number 1 picks for him, but it's just not going to happen.

Maybe our next QB is a freshman at UCLA right now, although I don't see us being bad enough to get him in 2 years without some kind of trade.
 

TigToad

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Pretty surprising series of articles out there. One from January stating that locking up Luck was a priority last January. The article expected it to be done before the Wilson deal.

The next article was about Luck's option for next year being picked up. Then a third stating that extending Luck would be an issue for this off-season.

Maybe just a tiny bit of smoke.
 

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I don't think it's that farfetched to think that Luck could play out his contract in Indy and sign elsewhere.. and it's easy to believe that he loves Arians, so the Cardinal connection isn't farfetched, either. Look at what he has in Indy - a lunatic drug addict of an owner, an idiot GM who probably will only be around another year, and a lame-duck coach who has never done anything. The roster is a mess, and he's gonna get killed eventually if they don't give him some kind of OL protection. Their OL situation reminds me of the Wiz/Graves years here, where the line sucked year in and year out, and almost nothing was done to try to improve it.

Sure, it's just a dream at this point, but don't rule it out. The situation here is far better than in Indy, and neither is likely to change significantly between now and when his contract is up.
 

Russ Smith

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I don't think it's that farfetched to think that Luck could play out his contract in Indy and sign elsewhere.. and it's easy to believe that he loves Arians, so the Cardinal connection isn't farfetched, either. Look at what he has in Indy - a lunatic drug addict of an owner, an idiot GM who probably will only be around another year, and a lame-duck coach who has never done anything. The roster is a mess, and he's gonna get killed eventually if they don't give him some kind of OL protection. Their OL situation reminds me of the Wiz/Graves years here, where the line sucked year in and year out, and almost nothing was done to try to improve it.

Sure, it's just a dream at this point, but don't rule it out. The situation here is far better than in Indy, and neither is likely to change significantly between now and when his contract is up.

Just that it's not that easy for a franchise QB to do that. They will just franchise him and make it that much harder to do it.

Luck is a smart kid, his dad is obviously very savvy, wouldn't shock me if he decided to buck the status quo and try to go somewhere else. I just don't think it's going to be that easy for him to do it.

If he really wants out my guess is the Colts would franchise him, probably exclusive not the one that allows other teams to negotiate. after 1 year where he has no guarantee of another contract if he gets hurt.

It's just not that easy for a young franchise QB to force his way out. Luck is a unique guy ,maybe he has what it takes to fight through all the red tape, but it won't be easy.

But if they do put him in a situation where he's a restricted franchise guy,I could certainly see us throwing a huge offer at him knowing if they don't match we lose 2 picks but get Luck.
 

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Just that it's not that easy for a franchise QB to do that. They will just franchise him and make it that much harder to do it.

Luck is a smart kid, his dad is obviously very savvy, wouldn't shock me if he decided to buck the status quo and try to go somewhere else. I just don't think it's going to be that easy for him to do it.

If he really wants out my guess is the Colts would franchise him, probably exclusive not the one that allows other teams to negotiate. after 1 year where he has no guarantee of another contract if he gets hurt.

It's just not that easy for a young franchise QB to force his way out. Luck is a unique guy ,maybe he has what it takes to fight through all the red tape, but it won't be easy.

But if they do put him in a situation where he's a restricted franchise guy,I could certainly see us throwing a huge offer at him knowing if they don't match we lose 2 picks but get Luck.

short of the Colts becoming an abject disaster (which they aren't haven't gone one round further in the playoffs every year since he got there), there's no way he leaves/the Colts don't match whatever's offered him with the franchise tag.
 

Russ Smith

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short of the Colts becoming an abject disaster (which they aren't haven't gone one round further in the playoffs every year since he got there), there's no way he leaves/the Colts don't match whatever's offered him with the franchise tag.

Right that's my thought too. We can offer him the moon but they could match it if he's restricted.

I assumed they'd just make him a franchise that can't negotiate and then try to get him to sign.

If a player REALLY wants to leave there probably is a way to make it so untenable for the team, they just agree to let you go either in trade or just the 2 number 1 picks, but it would be pretty amazing to do that with a star QB.
 

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short of the Colts becoming an abject disaster (which they aren't haven't gone one round further in the playoffs every year since he got there), there's no way he leaves/the Colts don't match whatever's offered him with the franchise tag.

Right that's my thought too. We can offer him the moon but they could match it if he's restricted.

I assumed they'd just make him a franchise that can't negotiate and then try to get him to sign.

If a player REALLY wants to leave there probably is a way to make it so untenable for the team, they just agree to let you go either in trade or just the 2 number 1 picks, but it would be pretty amazing to do that with a star QB.

Not quite how that works.

What is the NFL franchise tag?

It's a mechanism which allows a team, if it chooses, to tender a one-year offer to just one of its potential free agents. With slight variations to the calculus, the tag is basically worth the average of the top five salaries at the player's position. However a previously well-compensated player, such as Detroit Lions DT Ndamukong Suh, would receive 120% of his prior year's salary if it represents a better raise.

A player given an "exclusive" tag, which is worth slightly more, cannot negotiate with other teams. A player given the "non-exclusive" tag can deal with outside clubs, but if he's allowed to sign with a new team, his previous club is compensated with two first-round draft picks. (Four teams used the non-exclusive tag in 2014.)

So, he is 99.9999999% getting the "exclusive" tag, but if by some chance they give him the "non-exclusive" because he told them he is done with them, another team sings him, they do not have the right to match unless he wants them to. So, if he wants out, they give him the "non-exclusive" and get 2 first ruonders out of it.

Now, I am not saying it will happen, but fun to think about.

Let's not forget that Luck went to school partly because of who would have drafted him. I can see him wanting a better situation.
 

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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/03/24/irsay-says-colts-wont-extend-luck-this-year/

So much trash has been talked around Indy about how good a GM Grigson is but his drafting and free agent signings have been for the most part awful, particularly on the offensive and defensive line. They got out of the cap hell the Manning trade got them in and proceeded to go out and write a bunch of garbage contracts for mediocre talent.

It would not surprise me to see Luck try to go elsewhere particularly if Pagano is fired and the team continues to struggle. People around here grouse about Luck's decision making but he's running for his life half of the time.
 

Russ Smith

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Not quite how that works.



So, he is 99.9999999% getting the "exclusive" tag, but if by some chance they give him the "non-exclusive" because he told them he is done with them, another team sings him, they do not have the right to match unless he wants them to. So, if he wants out, they give him the "non-exclusive" and get 2 first ruonders out of it.

Now, I am not saying it will happen, but fun to think about.

Let's not forget that Luck went to school partly because of who would have drafted him. I can see him wanting a better situation.


Am I wrong in thinking that the non exclusive player can only leave if the original team declines to match?

I thought the rule was if the Cards offer him 40 million a year, the Colts would then be able to match that offer, or let him go and get the 2 first rounders.

The Colts would only make him non exclusive if they were willing to let him leave if the money was just too big. I don't think it's his choice though, if they match, he has to stay with the original team doesn't he?
 

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Am I wrong in thinking that the non exclusive player can only leave if the original team declines to match?

I thought the rule was if the Cards offer him 40 million a year, the Colts would then be able to match that offer, or let him go and get the 2 first rounders.

The Colts would only make him non exclusive if they were willing to let him leave if the money was just too big. I don't think it's his choice though, if they match, he has to stay with the original team doesn't he?

I've always understood it to mean that you either match and if you do then the player has to stay or if you don't then here comes two first rounders if you chose not to match.

It's a good question and the way it's worded in wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_tag

It doesn't really say that they have to sign your matching offer specifically but it seems implied to me that they would have to stay.

Good question though.
 

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If they use an exclusive tag, that's it. He gets the avg of the top 5, or about 18 million.

If you use a non-exclusive tag, he gets the average of the top 5 for the last 5 years, or about 16.5 million, but another team can offer a contract. If they do, you have the right to match or receive two first round picks from that team.

If you use the franchise tag in consecutive years, you pay them the avg of the top 5 or 120% of what you paid them the year before, whichever is more.

So realistically, if he really, really wants out, he has to hold out multiple years until that yearly salary is completely untenable. (18 million becomes 21.6 million becomes 26 million, becomes 31.2 million, etc).

He's not leaving the Colts for at least 3 years and that's only if he really, really gets stubborn about wanting out.
 

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Then there is that age factor when we look at the age of BA and some of his assistants , then throw in the age of BA's QB . I could envision major Org. changes when Palmer calls it a career including BA and Palmer riding off into that sunset together . I could envision Bettcher becoming the next Cardinals Head Coach .
 

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Then there is that age factor when we look at the age of BA and some of his assistants , then throw in the age of BA's QB . I could envision major Org. changes when Palmer calls it a career including BA and Palmer riding off into that sunset together . I could envision Bettcher becoming the next Cardinals Head Coach .

I think Goodwin would become the next HC if anything.
 

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I don't envision him leaving. Has he said anything?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 

Jim Otis

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I don't envision him leaving. Has he said anything?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk


The reference of BA and Carson riding off into the sunset together , was made sometime back by BA himself . I just added the reality that coaches like Pratt --- Zeirlein ---- Moore will not coach forever . I can see the timing being right at the end of Palmer's contract .BA is enjoying a high degree of success here now , exit Moore ---- Pratt --- Zeirline ----- Palmer and things can go in a different direction . BA is a smart guy .
 

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I'd be pretty surprised if the Colts don't lock Andrew Luck up for years. He may not be in a perfect situation right now but they are not stupid, they remember what it was like before Manning and what it's been like since Luck. They don't want to go down that route again.

I would be ecstatic to see the Cards get him and yeah I'd trade 2 number 1 picks for him, but it's just not going to happen.

Maybe our next QB is a freshman at UCLA right now, although I don't see us being bad enough to get him in 2 years without some kind of trade.

Max Browne at USC will be better than Rosen. And he is available in 3 years.
 

Russ Smith

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Max Browne at USC will be better than Rosen. And he is available in 3 years.

I haven't really seen Browne play since he doesn't start, he's a RS soph now isn't he? Technically that makes him draft eligible if he's old enough but I imagine he'll want to start at least one year next season before NFL.

He has the size.

I'm not saying Rosen is the chosen one or anything but for an 18 year old true freshman his grasp of the offense is impressive. They're already doing things in the pass game with him they couldn't do with Hundley. He can't run like Brett could but he's a much better pocket QB. 2 years to fill out and get stronger he has a chance to be really good. Donahue was telling people at the first game that he thinks Rosen is significantly better as a freshman than Aikman was as a RS soph. The difference of course is Rosen had 3-4 years of private coaching in school after he stopped playing tennis, Aikman grew up in an era where they didn't do that, and he didn't really play in a pass oriented offense until he got to UCLA.



Kessler is an interesting guy very productive, terrific numbers, but at his size I don't think the NFL teams are all that enamored with him. He might turn out to be a surprise to an NFL team.
 

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I haven't really seen Browne play since he doesn't start, he's a RS soph now isn't he? Technically that makes him draft eligible if he's old enough but I imagine he'll want to start at least one year next season before NFL.

He has the size.

I'm not saying Rosen is the chosen one or anything but for an 18 year old true freshman his grasp of the offense is impressive. They're already doing things in the pass game with him they couldn't do with Hundley. He can't run like Brett could but he's a much better pocket QB. 2 years to fill out and get stronger he has a chance to be really good. Donahue was telling people at the first game that he thinks Rosen is significantly better as a freshman than Aikman was as a RS soph. The difference of course is Rosen had 3-4 years of private coaching in school after he stopped playing tennis, Aikman grew up in an era where they didn't do that, and he didn't really play in a pass oriented offense until he got to UCLA.



Kessler is an interesting guy very productive, terrific numbers, but at his size I don't think the NFL teams are all that enamored with him. He might turn out to be a surprise to an NFL team.

Rosen has played 2 games against far inferior competition. The second game didn't go as well as the first. I know many within USC including Sarkesian say that Browne is a better QB than Kessler right now and will surely be a first round pick in the NFL. Whereas Kessler might not be. I also know that Jordan palmer has worked with both. He puts Browne on top.
 

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Indy has the franchise tag, can equal anyone's offer, and is the most likely to offer Luck the most influence in future personnel decisions. The Colts needed Luck to transition from Manning without major upheaval--odds are they won't be that fortunate again, even if they do have the #1 pick.

If he absolutely wants to leave, then that's a different story, but he's going to have as many suitors as are capable of...suiting.
 

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