Mitch
Crawled Through 5 FB Fields
For those of us who have been NFL fans for the past half century we have watched a rather stunning evolution of the game.
The run first, pass second offenses that we grew up watching are now a distant memory---the old rages were running plays such as the Packers' vaunted power sweep taught so religiously by Vince Lombardi as his staple, bread and butter play. If a team couldn't slow that play down, they didn't have a chance to beat the Packers.
Then there was the Redskins' famous "Counter Trey" where they down-blocked one side of the hogs and pulled both the back side guard and tackle. At times this play seemed unstoppable.
And one of the great memories I have of meeting John Madden in 1984 is when he diagrammed his bread and butter weak side off tackle play and the three different blocking variations his Raiders used in order to make the play even more impossible to defend. Madden said he would spend almost the entire first day of training camp on this one play and its three variations---he said, he believed that you always teach the hardest play to perfect first, when the players are fresh---and that everything else would seem easy in comparison.
But---along came the AFL---and it brought forth a new sexy way to play---the vertical passing game.
Interesting---if you look back---how was it even remotely possible that the Jets managed to beat the Colts in Super Bowl IV? They ran their offense in reverse of the trend: they passed first and ran second. And because Joe Namath was able to put the Colts' defense on its heels with an array of flashy downfield passes and quick underneath passes to the RB---by the time the 4th quarter came, the Colts' defense was so out of sorts, the Jets just hammered the ball right down their throats in the running game.
Yes---the formula had been reversed---pass first, run second.
And thanks to creative offensive pass happy geniuses like Don Coryell---the trend started gathering greater and greater momentum.
Nowadays the NFL has evolved into an aerial extravaganza---gone are the the preponderance of rugby scrums in favor of turning the game into an art form that virtually resembles the Metropolitan ballet.
When one looks at the evolution of the NFL Draft---the only things that have remained the same over the past 40 years are Mel Kiper's hairline...and the #1 priority for all NFL Teams: landing a franchise QB.
The top of the NFL draft will always be reserved for QBs---because if you don't have a franchise QB you don't have a chance in this league---pure and simple.
As a result---over the past two years 11 QBs have been taken in the first two rounds---and you could make the argument that of those 11, less than a handful of them appear to have the total skill set that would warrant 1st or 2nd round grades. Yet---the hope is---you can roll the dice earlier than the sixth round to find the next Tom Brady---you know, that solid college QB who in the right system can morph into a repeated Super Bowl MVP.
As they say---for every action there is an equal opposite reaction.
The second priority has become teams' obsession for sacking the QB.
Get this---in the last two drafts---nearly a quarter of the selections in the first and second round have been OLB/DEs---26 of them---followed closely by 17 defensive tackles---that's over 1/3 of all players taken in the first two rounds.
So if pass rushers/defensive linemen are the top priority number-wise---what position is of next highest demand?
It's a tie---that works both ways: offensive tackles and cornerbacks---14 each.
But wait---what about WRs?
What's very interesting is that only 11 WRs have been selected in the first two rounds the past two years. 11 QBs and 11 WRs.
How come?
The nature of the passing offenses has changed.
Because teams are becoming so adept at rushing the passer, the vertical passing game is no longer in vogue, basically because teams can't buy enough time for their QBs to run it.
What offenses have evolved into are three step and throw "get the ball out quickly" offenses---
One defensive minded coach who has been trying to perfect this new art of short to intermediate passing attack is Bill Belichick.
What Belichick learned while preparing his defenses to beat Peyton Manning is the value of the TE (Dallas Clark) and slot WR (Brandon Stokely) and how difficult it was to defend. The short to intermediate middle is always harder to defend, because the passes are shorter and come out faster.
So what did Belichick do? A few years back he traded a 2nd rounder for diminutive slot WR Wes Welker---which at the time had the fans scratching their heads.
Next he makes an effort to stockplie the TE position in the hope of finding his version of Dallas Clark---and managed to hit the jackpot when he was able to draft Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in the 2nd and 3rd rounds respectively in the 2010 draft.
When has anyone used a 2nd and 3rd round pick on TEs in the same draft?
With the trio of Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez---and despite the fact that the Patriots lacked big play WRs on the outside and were very suspect and vulnerable on defense---the Patriots accrued a 26-6 regular season record the past two years (14-2, 12-4).
Teams used to run up the middle to control the games and move the chains---now they pass up the middle to control the games and move the chains.
Therefore, what we about to see is a continued change in priorities and how they will pertain to the NFL Draft.
QB and pass rushers will remain the top draws.
But now---look for teams to draft higher than they normally would for the following:
1. Pass Catching Tight Ends.
2. Slot WRs.
3. Guards/Centers who can protect the three step drop.
4. Three down ILBers who can cover.
5. Safeties who can cover short and deep and be physical.
6. Hybrid CB/S types.
7. 34 DEs/OLBers who are tall, athletic and tough to pass over.
As a result---it would not be surprising to see the following players in this draft be taken higher than you might think:
1. Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford. Orson Charles, TE, Georgia.
2. Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor. Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas.
3. David DeCastro, G, Stanford. Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia. Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin.
4. Luke Keuchly, ILB, Boston College. Tank Carder, ILB, TCU.
5. Mark Barron, S, Alabama, Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame.
6. Trumaine Johnson, CB/S, Montana. Josh Norman, CB/S, Coastal Carolina.
7. Chandler Jones. DE/OLB, Syracuse. Taylor Thompson, DE, SMU.
Perfect Fits:
1. Fleener: #18 to San Diego. Antonio Gates is on the decline---and having Fleener opposite him or their new slot WR in Roscoe Parrish would make them prolific over the middle.
2. Wright: #21 to Cincinnati. Imagine having Wright play inside of A.J. Green. A DC's nightmare.
3. DeCastro: #11 to Kansas City. They want to run the ball and throw a controlled passing game---this guy is perfect for them.
4. Keuchly: #10 to Buffalo. They have to cover the trio of Gronk, Hernandez and Welker---they added the pass rushers now adding the best cover ILB in the draft would be a boon.
5. Barron: #9: to Miami. Same reasons as Buffalo---how are you going to beat the Patriots and their middle passing game?
6. Trumaine Johnson: #31 to New England. His versatility would do wonders for their underachieving secondary.
7. Chandler Jones: #37 to Cleveland. Great fit for them---especially if they draft for offense on their first two picks at #4 and #22.
How about the Cardinals and what they have at these positions?
1. Pass catching TE---Rob Housler.
2. Slot WR---Andre Roberts. Early Doucet. Jaymar Johnson.
3. Guards who can protect the three step drop---Daryn Colledge and Adam Snyder.
4. Three down ILBers who can cover---Daryl Washington.
5. Safeties who can cover short and deep and play physically---Adrian Wilson. Kerry Rhodes. Wilson is good short, but not deep...Rhodes can play short and deep...Wilson is physical, Rhodes less so. Neither can do all three.
6. Hybrid CB/S types---William Gay, Crezdon Butler.
7. Tall athletic 34DEs---Calais Campbell (who is revolutionizing the position, imo. We are going to start seeing tall 34 DE types emerge in college and the pros because of the short passing game and how hard it is to throw over an athletic 6'8" 34 DE).
The run first, pass second offenses that we grew up watching are now a distant memory---the old rages were running plays such as the Packers' vaunted power sweep taught so religiously by Vince Lombardi as his staple, bread and butter play. If a team couldn't slow that play down, they didn't have a chance to beat the Packers.
Then there was the Redskins' famous "Counter Trey" where they down-blocked one side of the hogs and pulled both the back side guard and tackle. At times this play seemed unstoppable.
And one of the great memories I have of meeting John Madden in 1984 is when he diagrammed his bread and butter weak side off tackle play and the three different blocking variations his Raiders used in order to make the play even more impossible to defend. Madden said he would spend almost the entire first day of training camp on this one play and its three variations---he said, he believed that you always teach the hardest play to perfect first, when the players are fresh---and that everything else would seem easy in comparison.
But---along came the AFL---and it brought forth a new sexy way to play---the vertical passing game.
Interesting---if you look back---how was it even remotely possible that the Jets managed to beat the Colts in Super Bowl IV? They ran their offense in reverse of the trend: they passed first and ran second. And because Joe Namath was able to put the Colts' defense on its heels with an array of flashy downfield passes and quick underneath passes to the RB---by the time the 4th quarter came, the Colts' defense was so out of sorts, the Jets just hammered the ball right down their throats in the running game.
Yes---the formula had been reversed---pass first, run second.
And thanks to creative offensive pass happy geniuses like Don Coryell---the trend started gathering greater and greater momentum.
Nowadays the NFL has evolved into an aerial extravaganza---gone are the the preponderance of rugby scrums in favor of turning the game into an art form that virtually resembles the Metropolitan ballet.
When one looks at the evolution of the NFL Draft---the only things that have remained the same over the past 40 years are Mel Kiper's hairline...and the #1 priority for all NFL Teams: landing a franchise QB.
The top of the NFL draft will always be reserved for QBs---because if you don't have a franchise QB you don't have a chance in this league---pure and simple.
As a result---over the past two years 11 QBs have been taken in the first two rounds---and you could make the argument that of those 11, less than a handful of them appear to have the total skill set that would warrant 1st or 2nd round grades. Yet---the hope is---you can roll the dice earlier than the sixth round to find the next Tom Brady---you know, that solid college QB who in the right system can morph into a repeated Super Bowl MVP.
As they say---for every action there is an equal opposite reaction.
The second priority has become teams' obsession for sacking the QB.
Get this---in the last two drafts---nearly a quarter of the selections in the first and second round have been OLB/DEs---26 of them---followed closely by 17 defensive tackles---that's over 1/3 of all players taken in the first two rounds.
So if pass rushers/defensive linemen are the top priority number-wise---what position is of next highest demand?
It's a tie---that works both ways: offensive tackles and cornerbacks---14 each.
But wait---what about WRs?
What's very interesting is that only 11 WRs have been selected in the first two rounds the past two years. 11 QBs and 11 WRs.
How come?
The nature of the passing offenses has changed.
Because teams are becoming so adept at rushing the passer, the vertical passing game is no longer in vogue, basically because teams can't buy enough time for their QBs to run it.
What offenses have evolved into are three step and throw "get the ball out quickly" offenses---
One defensive minded coach who has been trying to perfect this new art of short to intermediate passing attack is Bill Belichick.
What Belichick learned while preparing his defenses to beat Peyton Manning is the value of the TE (Dallas Clark) and slot WR (Brandon Stokely) and how difficult it was to defend. The short to intermediate middle is always harder to defend, because the passes are shorter and come out faster.
So what did Belichick do? A few years back he traded a 2nd rounder for diminutive slot WR Wes Welker---which at the time had the fans scratching their heads.
Next he makes an effort to stockplie the TE position in the hope of finding his version of Dallas Clark---and managed to hit the jackpot when he was able to draft Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in the 2nd and 3rd rounds respectively in the 2010 draft.
When has anyone used a 2nd and 3rd round pick on TEs in the same draft?
With the trio of Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez---and despite the fact that the Patriots lacked big play WRs on the outside and were very suspect and vulnerable on defense---the Patriots accrued a 26-6 regular season record the past two years (14-2, 12-4).
Teams used to run up the middle to control the games and move the chains---now they pass up the middle to control the games and move the chains.
Therefore, what we about to see is a continued change in priorities and how they will pertain to the NFL Draft.
QB and pass rushers will remain the top draws.
But now---look for teams to draft higher than they normally would for the following:
1. Pass Catching Tight Ends.
2. Slot WRs.
3. Guards/Centers who can protect the three step drop.
4. Three down ILBers who can cover.
5. Safeties who can cover short and deep and be physical.
6. Hybrid CB/S types.
7. 34 DEs/OLBers who are tall, athletic and tough to pass over.
As a result---it would not be surprising to see the following players in this draft be taken higher than you might think:
1. Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford. Orson Charles, TE, Georgia.
2. Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor. Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas.
3. David DeCastro, G, Stanford. Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia. Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin.
4. Luke Keuchly, ILB, Boston College. Tank Carder, ILB, TCU.
5. Mark Barron, S, Alabama, Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame.
6. Trumaine Johnson, CB/S, Montana. Josh Norman, CB/S, Coastal Carolina.
7. Chandler Jones. DE/OLB, Syracuse. Taylor Thompson, DE, SMU.
Perfect Fits:
1. Fleener: #18 to San Diego. Antonio Gates is on the decline---and having Fleener opposite him or their new slot WR in Roscoe Parrish would make them prolific over the middle.
2. Wright: #21 to Cincinnati. Imagine having Wright play inside of A.J. Green. A DC's nightmare.
3. DeCastro: #11 to Kansas City. They want to run the ball and throw a controlled passing game---this guy is perfect for them.
4. Keuchly: #10 to Buffalo. They have to cover the trio of Gronk, Hernandez and Welker---they added the pass rushers now adding the best cover ILB in the draft would be a boon.
5. Barron: #9: to Miami. Same reasons as Buffalo---how are you going to beat the Patriots and their middle passing game?
6. Trumaine Johnson: #31 to New England. His versatility would do wonders for their underachieving secondary.
7. Chandler Jones: #37 to Cleveland. Great fit for them---especially if they draft for offense on their first two picks at #4 and #22.
How about the Cardinals and what they have at these positions?
1. Pass catching TE---Rob Housler.
2. Slot WR---Andre Roberts. Early Doucet. Jaymar Johnson.
3. Guards who can protect the three step drop---Daryn Colledge and Adam Snyder.
4. Three down ILBers who can cover---Daryl Washington.
5. Safeties who can cover short and deep and play physically---Adrian Wilson. Kerry Rhodes. Wilson is good short, but not deep...Rhodes can play short and deep...Wilson is physical, Rhodes less so. Neither can do all three.
6. Hybrid CB/S types---William Gay, Crezdon Butler.
7. Tall athletic 34DEs---Calais Campbell (who is revolutionizing the position, imo. We are going to start seeing tall 34 DE types emerge in college and the pros because of the short passing game and how hard it is to throw over an athletic 6'8" 34 DE).
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