Pivotal Year

[Harry]

Ever ask yourself why in many recent years a number of pundits have selected the Cards to move forward only to be proven wrong? If you look at impact players, the Cards have as many as most of the playoff teams. Yet year after year they fail to reach their potential. Now we enter another year with quite a few people saying the Cards will contend. Will they? Here’s my concerns and assessment.

The Cards have issues with 3 basic concepts of success: winning in the trenches, having an edge in turnovers and team morale. Any success this year will require improvement in these areas.

First, everyone seems to use the cliché “winning in the trenches.” One of the reason phrases become clichés is that they are often true. On offense the Cards have counted on continuity to achieve substantial improvement. That theory is already in jeopardy with Johnson done for the season. Sendlein may prove adequate, but he is not exceptional. Johnson came in with injury concerns and this situation was foreseeable. The depth is slightly better than last season, but this O-line will not be dominant, which bodes poorly for the running game and protecting the Cards’ fragile QBs. On the other side of the ball, things are much better. I like the Cards defense a great deal. If they had a ball control offense, they would surely be a playoff team. Watson’s injury will hurt. If he can’t return soon it could hard for the defense to be the dominant unit it should become. However, if he is back in week two, as suggested, the Cards’ defense should win its share of games. To win in the NFL a team typically has to run and stop the run. Sure the Rams with Warner bucked that trend, but that’s a risky way to play the game. I have real doubts that the Cards can run with any consistency and if Watson doesn’t return, stopping the run may also be an issue.

Then there’s the turnover concern. Whisenhunt had hoped the Leinart would win the QB job, primarily by playing within his skill set and not making turnovers. That didn’t happen. As the Sporting News recently noted, “Since 2002, when the NFL adopted its eight-division format, two-thirds of the teams that have finished in the top 12 in turnover margin have made the playoffs.” The Cards in ’07 were -7. I do not believe this team is strong enough to contend without improving this stat and Warner’s history would suggest he is not the man for this part of the job.

Finally team morale seems to constantly hold this franchise back. Dansby, Boldin, Wilson and Dockett are four key components of this team’s likely success, yet each has major contract issues. You would be hard pressed to find a contending team with any similar situation. These guys will play well, but this was a distraction that didn’t need to happen. Hopefully the Cards will sign a couple of these players as the year goes forward.

So, how do I see this year? The schedule is weird. It’s almost like the NFL manipulated it so the Cards would stay in the hunt. It would not surprise me to see this team start 7-2. Then things get nasty. Perhaps a couple of the components of the last 7 games will have their seasons fall apart, like New Orleans last season. Keep in mind that 8-8 against a much tougher schedule would be a step forward. I see 9-7 or 8-8 as this team’s likely end result. The playoffs are possible and the best route looks like winning the West.

The Cards are headed in the right direction, especially if they can resolve the contract issues. Don't get discouraged if this year isn't a huge move forward. This is finally a team worth supporting. They will be both exciting and frustrating. They won't be dull.

 

[Cardiac]

Thanks Harry.

What upgrade(s) does the O-line need? Did you get a chance to watch B. Keith and does he get a chance this year or ever to contribute? Does Wells make sense as the long term answere at Center.

I ask the above since I get from your article that the O-line is what's holding us back.

 

[Redrage]

Ever ask yourself why in many recent years a number of pundits have selected the Cards to move forward only to be proven wrong? If you look at impact players, the Cards have as many as most of the playoff teams. Yet year after year they fail to reach their potential. Now we enter another year with quite a few people saying the Cards will contend. Will they? Here’s my concerns and assessment.

The Cards have issues with 3 basic concepts of success: winning in the trenches, having an edge in turnovers and team morale. Any success this year will require improvement in these areas.

First, everyone seems to use the cliché “winning in the trenches.” One of the reason phrases become clichés is that they are often true. On offense the Cards have counted on continuity to achieve substantial improvement. That theory is already in jeopardy with Johnson done for the season. Sendlein may prove adequate, but he is not exceptional. Johnson came in with injury concerns and this situation was foreseeable. The depth is slightly better than last season, but this O-line will not be dominant, which bodes poorly for the running game and protecting the Cards’ fragile QBs. On the other side of the ball, things are much better. I like the Cards defense a great deal. If they had a ball control offense, they would surely be a playoff team. Watson’s injury will hurt. If he can’t return soon it could hard for the defense to be the dominant unit it should become. However, if he is back in week two, as suggested, the Cards’ defense should win its share of games. To win in the NFL a team typically has to run and stop the run. Sure the Rams with Warner bucked that trend, but that’s a risky way to play the game. I have real doubts that the Cards can run with any consistency and if Watson doesn’t return, stopping the run may also be an issue.

Then there’s the turnover concern. Whisenhunt had hoped the Leinart would win the QB job, primarily by playing within his skill set and not making turnovers. That didn’t happen. As the Sporting News recently noted, “Since 2002, when the NFL adopted its eight-division format, two-thirds of the teams that have finished in the top 12 in turnover margin have made the playoffs.” The Cards in ’07 were -7. I do not believe this team is strong enough to contend without improving this stat and Warner’s history would suggest he is not the man for this part of the job.

Finally team morale seems to constantly hold this franchise back. Dansby, Boldin, Wilson and Dockett are four key components of this team’s likely success, yet each has major contract issues. You would be hard pressed to find a contending team with any similar situation. These guys will play well, but this was a distraction that didn’t need to happen. Hopefully the Cards will sign a couple of these players as the year goes forward.

So, how do I see this year? The schedule is weird. It’s almost like the NFL manipulated it so the Cards would stay in the hunt. It would not surprise me to see this team start 7-2. Then things get nasty. Perhaps a couple of the components of the last 7 games will have their seasons fall apart, like New Orleans last season. Keep in mind that 8-8 against a much tougher schedule would be a step forward. I see 9-7 or 8-8 as this team’s likely end result. The playoffs are possible and the best route looks like winning the West.

The Cards are headed in the right direction, especially if they can resolve the contract issues. Don't get discouraged if this year isn't a huge move forward. This is finally a team worth supporting. They will be both exciting and frustrating. They won't be dull.

Last year I felt that the OL was more cohesive with Sendlein than Johnson. I'm hoping that the consistency of having the same group back intact plays to their advantage. With a good portion of the line being made up of youngsters, one would hope that there is ample room for improvement.

 

[black]

I like your views Harry, but towards the end there is a conflict with me. If you can see a probable 7-2 start wouldn't Watson be back by then? And it would seem our 0-line would jell more than fold.

 

[Garthshort]

Harry"s Analysis

Harry, thank you very much. Reading between the lines, IMO, you're saying that the team's success will come down to how well they can run the ball. And that means how well the OL plays. Since the OL has been playing together for the second year, well almost in tack, they should at least be better than last year. Will Sendlein be the key to whether they are much or marginally improved? I would guess so, so he's worth watching, closely. Harry is high on the "D", but he didn't go into details, but their improvement will show with an improved pass rush. Like Harry, I'm assuming that Gabe is back soon. But talking pass defense, DRC showed me enough in preseason that he should be playing the nickel corner and letting Rolle play center field. Francisco and Ware make me nervous in the CF position. Special Teams is a big question mark, and one area that I have no idea how they'll do, though I'm hopeful. If Harry is right and the team opens 7-2, momentum might help in the tough second half. Like I started, Harry, thanks very much.

 

[Buckybird]

Thanks Harry.

What upgrade(s) does the O-line need? Did you get a chance to watch B. Keith and does he get a chance this year or ever to contribute? Does Wells make sense as the long term answere at Center.

I ask the above since I get from your article that the O-line is what's holding us back.

I don't have the answers on who stays and who goes, but watch our Oline closely. Very seldom do they get push at the point of attack. Ususally it is a stalmate at the line, making it hard to run the ball. My #1 concern heading into this season was this line. I've said it all along, to take this team to a championship level, changes STILL need to be made!!!

 

[Mitch]

Great writeup as always, Harry. All three of your points (winning the trenches, improving the turnover ratio and maintaining a positive morale) have significant merit.

What's interesting is that last year, despite falling short in two of the three criteria you mentioned, the Cardinals went 8-8...and of their eight losses six of them were by a touchdown or less (SF 20-17, BAL 26-23, WASH 21-19, TB 17-10, SF 37-31 OT, NO 31-24). The other two losses were lopsided scores (CAR 25-10--a game in which newcomer Tim Rattay started at QB; and SEA 42-21---a game in which Patrick Kerney dominated).

Interestingly, six of the the eight Cardinals wins were by 8 points or less (SEA 23-20, PIT 21-14, STL 34-31, CIN 35-27, CLE 27-21, ATL 30-27 OT). The two lopsided wins were DET 31-21 and STL 48-19.

What this shows is that the Cardinals had a legitimate chance to win 14 of their 16 games...something that we could not say about the Cardinals even in 1998, when they made the playoffs.

Some pundits and fans understate the Cardinals competitiveness in 2007 to the relative easiness of their schedule...however, it should be noted that the Cardinals' record last year versus teams with winning records was 3-2.

Therefore, one way of thinking about the team's chances this year is that they have to do a better job of winning the close games...which would entail getting similar offensive production to last year's and getting improved defensive and special teams (field goals, especially) in crunch time.

While the Cardinal offensive line was somewhat improved generating a running game, they were consistently good in pass protection...and if they improve their run blocking just a little and continue to give the QB time to throw, and continue their good play in the red zone, there's reason to believe that they can continue to put up points in the 20s and 30s.

As for getting better defensive play, there's no question the Cardinals did a very good job this off-season improving their front seven and their pass rush in particular...and the depth they have assembled should allow the Cardinals to rush the passer with reasonably fresh legs in the fourth quarters.

The question then becomes...will Clancy Pendergast conceive more aggressive pass coverage schemes? Late in games under his watch, the Cardinals have typically rushed three men (ineffectively, understandably) and played soft zones, allowing for too much cushion and easy completions. With an improved pass rush the ball is likely to come out quicker, and if the Cardinals can get sticky in their coverages, it could be turnover city. Will this happen this year?

Lastly, the Cardinals have been notorious for both giving up the backbreaking big play on special teams just when they have momentum on their side...and the punting and kicking games have let them down far too often in close games. it would appear that the Cardinals have better tacklers on their special teams now, but the fact that the Cardinals elected to retain Neil Rackers--without any camp competition, no less---and only sign one punter who was out of football almost entirely last year----was not the kind of planning that stirs confidence. Hopefully, Rackers and Johnson will prove the Cardinal front office right...otherwise, the front office will and should have some explaining to do for ignoring an essential part of winning in today's NFL.

As for the morale...I think this could become quite ugly if the Cardinals don't win. There will be a lot of finger pointing and squabbling.

You said this was a "pivotal year" for Whiz and the team...and that's right on the money. If the Cardinals show progress...the program could be very good for years to come. If they regress...there's no telling what will happen especially with the prospects of heading into next year with such uncertainty about Warner, Leinart, Boldin, Dockett, Dansby, and Wilson.

 

[slanidrac16]

IMO, the NFL has changed drastically in the "must run the ball" theory. Although running the ball may make things easier at times, if you don't have a good red zone offense or your team has a propensity to turn the ball over, it just won't matter.
We need to come out like Corvettes. We have to use the talent at wr to force defenses to account for Fitz, Boldin, Pope, Breaston and the likes which will keep 8 men out of the box. When teams try to blitz to control our passing game we need to hit the outlet receiver and make them pay for blitzing. These tactics will help open our running game to a point where it can be effective.
If we do make the payoffs we will look back and attribute that success to 3 major things. Our defensive front 7, the offense (Warner) not making critical turnovers, and an improved special teams which includes our kicking game.

Last but not least, injuries. Every team that turns out to be good goes thru the season with very little MAJOR injuries.

Player's morale will soar with success. There will be plenty of money to go around next year to keep anybody and everybody we want to keep.

 

[Pariah]

IMO, the NFL has changed drastically in the "must run the ball" theory.

If teams are built for it, I agree. I think we need to use the short, safe passing game as a staple.