Playoff Scenarios & This Week's Game

[Mitch]

1. If Minnesota wins tonight or next week, all scenarios point to the Cardinals playing the Packers in the first round. There is no scenario in which they wouldn't.

The simple reasons are that the Packers hold the tie-breakers over both the Eagles and Cowboys, if they both wind up with the same record. And in the one sceanrio where the Cardinals earn the #3 seed by virtue of Dallas beating Philadelphia (the Cardinals hold the tie-breaker over the Cowboys) and the Cardinals beating the Packers, the seeds would look like this:

1. New Orleans (14-2)
2. Minnesota (12-4)
3. Arizona (11-5)
4. Dallas (11-5)
5. Philadelphia (11-5)
6. Green Bay (10-6)

This means: The Cardinals host the Packers and Dallas hosts Philadelphia. Imagine that! Has this ever happened that the two first round games are exact repeats of the games in Week 17...same teams, same sites?

Here are the other scenarios:

If Philadelphia wins the #2 spot by beating Dallas and the Vikings lose to either the Bears or Giants:

1. New Orleans (14-2)
2. Philadelphia (12-4)
3. Minnesota (12-4)
4. Arizona (11-5, or 10-6)
5. Green Bay (11-5 or 10-6)
6. Dallas (10-6)

Minnesota hosts Dallas and the Cardinals host the Packers.

If Dallas beats Philadelphia and the Cardinals lose to the Packers:

1. New Orleans (14-2)
2. Minnesota (12-4)
3. Dallas (11-5)
4. Arizona (10-6)
5. Green Bay (11-5)
6. Philadelphia (11-5)

Same scenario: Dallas hosts Philadelphia, the Cardinals host the Packers.

If Minnesota wins twice, Philadelphia beats Dallas and the Cardinals beat the Packers:

1. New Orleans (14-2)
2. Minnesota (13-3)
3. Phildelphia (12-4)
4. Arizona (11-5)
5. Green Bay (10-6)
6. Dallas (10-6)

In this case, Philadelphia hosts Dallas and the Cardinals host the Packers.

If Minnesota wins twice, Phildelphia beats Dallas and the Cardinals lose to the Packers:

1. New Orleans (14-2)
2. Minnesota (13-3)
3. Phildelphia (12-4)
4. Arizona (10-6)
5. Green Bay (11-5)
6. Dallas (10-6)

Same scenario: Phildelphia hosts Dallas and the Cardinals host the Packers.

Thus, with one Minnesota win, no matter what: The Cardinals host the Packers.

Therefore, if the Vikings win tonight, Coach Whisenhunt will know the Cardinals are playing the Packers in back to back games. How should Coach Whisenhunt approach this week's game? Does he:

A. Rest as many starters as possible?

B. Play the starters like he did versus the Rams until the game is in hand?

C. See what the Packers do and follow suit? (In other words, if the Packers are playing their starters, the Cardinals will play theirs)

D. Run the most vanilla package possible and concede the game.

This is pretty much a meaningless game...the only real incentive may be to earn the #3 seed if Dallas beats Philadelphia...which likely would mean having to play at Minnesota rather than at New Orleans. Would that be the preference anyway?

However...could this be a statement game? Could Whiz go into this game with the thought of having his team pound on the Packers to make them sore and perhaps a little demoralized for the following week?

What kind of an impact on the first round playoff game might it have if the Cardinals allow the Packers to whip them good this week? One might think that if the starters aren't playing it would have relatively no impact. But, enduring a three hour beating would not be pretty in the least.

Funny, but, I actually think the Colts' decision to cash it in on a perfect season to rest their starters may have an impact on Whiz's decision. That was a sad affair in Indianapolis yesterday, one that was very difficult and awkward for the players and the fans. Here the Colts were foregoing a shot at NFL history for the sake of resting their players and proceeded to get their butts whipped. This was not good for their morale or their momentum and it certainly was not good for the game of football.

Thus, I think Whiz is going to go after this game with the Packers and make it a statement game. I think he is going to want to pound on them and give them something to think about. Obviously, he won't throw the whole playbook at them, but he will stress being physically dominant and mentally sharp.

In order to make this decision easier, Whiz just needs to remind himself that the "bye weeks" are often more of a hindrance than a help for the top teams. Resting players often means disprupting routines and timing.

Thus, I think Whiz will want to try to keep his team sharp and will try to keep building momentum. Yesterday's game...another relatively meaningless game in several respects for a team that had already sewn up the #4 seed in the NFC...showed how motivated the players are right now and how hungry they are to hit the playoffs in mid-stride. I don't think Whiz will want to change any of that.

 

[NuttinButTDs]

There is a slim possibility that all wild card games may be the repeat of games in week 17. AFC has the same scenarios but less likely.

 

[TigToad]

I found it really interesting that if Philly wins, we cannot do anythign to stop them from getting the 3 seed over us. If Philly loses, they cannot get the 3 seed over us. Since my only real fear in seeding comes from not wanting to travel to Philly in bad weather, I think this is going to be a resting starters game. It looks like it will be that way for both teams.

By the way - thanks Mitch. I was working on this earlier this morning and you saved me a bunch of time. Great info.

 

[Cardiac]

Don't get cute and try to out think all the what ifs etc. Just play football like it's supposed to be played.

The Colts are a great Organization and need no advice from me but I don't like how they handle this just about every year.

I do think we have some players that have been playing dinged up that should see limited action against the Packers. Hayes and Dansby have been playing through injuries and quite honestly not as effective so let them get some rest.

I would also play Branch and Iwebema more than normal.

The passing game actually needs the reps to get better in sync. Just be smart about it.
KW don't hold the ball to long. Give Bridges some help.

Whis knows how and when to push each players button so that he gets the best out of everyone over the course of a season. He still has some opportunity to avoid the weekly let downs like the 49ers, Colts and Panthers games.

Win or lose in week 17 the Cards come out with their A Game in round 1 of the playoffs.

 

[Brewster10]

The team needs to do whatever it can to assure that they don't have to go to Philly for a potential NFC title game.

 

[TigToad]

Reading Mitch's scenerios shows we don't control that. If Philly wins and the Vikings win, we cannot take the 3 seed from them. If the Cowboys beat Philly, they cannot get a higher seeding than us (Philly). Its on the Cowboys if its possible for us to travel to Philly or not.

The team needs to do whatever it can to assure that they don't have to go to Philly for a potential NFC title game.

 

[Vermont Maverick]

Though not very likely, there is a chance that we play the Cowboys in the 4/5 game. There would have to be a Cowboys/Eagles Tie and a win by us. (and Minnesota would have to win a game.)

The Colts have been my AFC team for awhile, and their resting (quitting) style has never worked. The year the won the Superbowl, they were the 3 seed, and had to claw right to the end. I'm pulling a Jimmy Johnson, and putting a fork in them for their organizational decision to throw away something special.

 

[Catfish]

Good stuff to think about Mitch-----Like you, I believe that Whiz will try to make a statement game with the Pack this week. Soften them up, so to speak. I think he tries to put them on the field Sunday playing mentally and physically sharp, and just a little nasty.

 

[CardLogic]

C. See what the Packers do and follow suit? (In other words, if the Packers are playing their starters, the Cardinals will play theirs).

Nice work, Mitch. However, there is no possibility of this scenario. Whisenhunt will have made a prior decision and will stay with it.

 

[CardLogic]

As an interesting aside...

I wonder if the Packers might decide to remain in Arizona during the week between games?

 

[LVG]

As an interesting aside...

I wonder if the Packers might decide to remain in Arizona during the week between games?

Maybe, but they'd have to have a place to work out, practice, etc., and usually this is all worked out way ahead of time - the Pack may just not be able to do it given the short amount of notice.

 

[40yearfan]

As an interesting aside...

I wonder if the Packers might decide to remain in Arizona during the week between games?

Now why would they want to stay in this 50 to 60 degree weather when they could go back to their -10 degree.

 

[Matt L]

IF the packers stayed in town for a full week, we would have to assign someone "hotel duty" and pull the fire alarm every night at 3am....

Is anyone on this board up for it?

 

[DemsMyBoys]

You've had some great info and ideas this week, Mitch. Thanks very much!

It's going to be interesting to see how Whiz coaches Sunday's game. (Strategy is one of the reasons I love this game.) My first thoughts have been to not show 'em nuttin'. I have the song for the week in my head already. "You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em..."

I personally never count my money when I'm sittin' at the table.

 

[seesred]

The most important GB game is our first playoff game, everyone knows that and so does Green Bay. I see Vanilla on both sides next Sunday. Kurt playing the first half with the rest of the starters .The second half O-line starters with a switch on RT to Kieth and moving Brown to LG. We will see alot more Doucet, Toler, Branch who is having a good year,Davis, and maybe Herman Johnson. Both backs should play in their regular roles, with an uptick of carries.

If we beat them good for us, but it's just not important from any stand point. Show a little, save a lot!

GBR
40

 

[OKCardFan]

Nice post Mitch and I think your statement here will hold out, "Thus, with one Minnesota win, no matter what: The Cardinals host the Packers."

However, until the Vikings win tonight, I still like this scenario better:

Vikings lose to Bears tonight,
Cowboys beat Eagles,
Giants beat Vikings,
Cardinals beat Packers

= Cardinals finish #2 seed, skip wild-card weekend and rest, then host next round!

Almost as crazy an idea of last year's hosting the NFC Championship game, right?

 

[Buckybird]

IF the packers stayed in town for a full week, we would have to assign someone "hotel duty" and pull the fire alarm every night at 3am....

Is anyone on this board up for it?

Or have hotel employees putting Exlax into all the players meals the Saturday before the playoff game

 

[Buckybird]

The most important GB game is our first playoff game, everyone knows that and so does Green Bay. I see Vanilla on both sides next Sunday. Kurt playing the first half with the rest of the starters .The second half O-line starters with a switch on RT to Kieth and moving Brown to LG. We will see alot more Doucet, Toler, Branch who is having a good year,Davis, and maybe Herman Johnson. Both backs should play in their regular roles, with an uptick of carries.

If we beat them good for us, but it's just not important from any stand point. Show a little, save a lot!

GBR
40

& many carries from LSH & Jason Wright. Keep THT & Wells legs fresh with no chance of injury.

 

[az1965]

1. New Orleans (14-2)
2. Minnesota (12-4)
3. Arizona (11-5)
4. Dallas (11-5)
5. Philadelphia (11-5)
6. Green Bay (10-6)

This is pretty much a meaningless game...the only real incentive may be to earn the #3 seed if Dallas beats Philadelphia...which likely would mean having to play at Minnesota rather than at New Orleans. Would that be the preference anyway?

It can be important if an upset happens in the divisional round like last year. If that happens and we beat #2 on the road, then we host the NFC championship game! That is huge, IMO. We must try to get the #3 seed.

 

[az1965]

As an interesting aside...

I wonder if the Packers might decide to remain in Arizona during the week between games?

Read somewhere they are not inclining to do that...

 

[john h]

1. If Minnesota wins tonight or next week, all scenarios point to the Cardinals playing the Packers in the first round. There is no scenario in which they wouldn't.

The simple reasons are that the Packers hold the tie-breakers over both the Eagles and Cowboys, if they both wind up with the same record. And in the one sceanrio where the Cardinals earn the #3 seed by virtue of Dallas beating Philadelphia (the Cardinals hold the tie-breaker over the Cowboys) and the Cardinals beating the Packers, the seeds would look like this:

1. New Orleans (14-2)
2. Minnesota (12-4)
3. Arizona (11-5)
4. Dallas (11-5)
5. Philadelphia (11-5)
6. Green Bay (10-6)

This means: The Cardinals host the Packers and Dallas hosts Philadelphia. Imagine that! Has this ever happened that the two first round games are exact repeats of the games in Week 17...same teams, same sites?

Here are the other scenarios:

If Philadelphia wins the #2 spot by beating Dallas and the Vikings lose to either the Bears or Giants:

1. New Orleans (14-2)
2. Philadelphia (12-4)
3. Minnesota (12-4)
4. Arizona (11-5, or 10-6)
5. Green Bay (11-5 or 10-6)
6. Dallas (10-6)

Minnesota hosts Dallas and the Cardinals host the Packers.

If Dallas beats Philadelphia and the Cardinals lose to the Packers:

1. New Orleans (14-2)
2. Minnesota (12-4)
3. Dallas (11-5)
4. Arizona (10-6)
5. Green Bay (11-5)
6. Philadelphia (11-5)

Same scenario: Dallas hosts Philadelphia, the Cardinals host the Packers.

If Minnesota wins twice, Philadelphia beats Dallas and the Cardinals beat the Packers:

1. New Orleans (14-2)
2. Minnesota (13-3)
3. Phildelphia (12-4)
4. Arizona (11-5)
5. Green Bay (10-6)
6. Dallas (10-6)

In this case, Philadelphia hosts Dallas and the Cardinals host the Packers.

If Minnesota wins twice, Phildelphia beats Dallas and the Cardinals lose to the Packers:

1. New Orleans (14-2)
2. Minnesota (13-3)
3. Phildelphia (12-4)
4. Arizona (10-6)
5. Green Bay (11-5)
6. Dallas (10-6)

Same scenario: Phildelphia hosts Dallas and the Cardinals host the Packers.

Thus, with one Minnesota win, no matter what: The Cardinals host the Packers.

Therefore, if the Vikings win tonight, Coach Whisenhunt will know the Cardinals are playing the Packers in back to back games. How should Coach Whisenhunt approach this week's game? Does he:

A. Rest as many starters as possible?

B. Play the starters like he did versus the Rams until the game is in hand?

C. See what the Packers do and follow suit? (In other words, if the Packers are playing their starters, the Cardinals will play theirs)

D. Run the most vanilla package possible and concede the game.

This is pretty much a meaningless game...the only real incentive may be to earn the #3 seed if Dallas beats Philadelphia...which likely would mean having to play at Minnesota rather than at New Orleans. Would that be the preference anyway?

However...could this be a statement game? Could Whiz go into this game with the thought of having his team pound on the Packers to make them sore and perhaps a little demoralized for the following week?

What kind of an impact on the first round playoff game might it have if the Cardinals allow the Packers to whip them good this week? One might think that if the starters aren't playing it would have relatively no impact. But, enduring a three hour beating would not be pretty in the least.

Funny, but, I actually think the Colts' decision to cash it in on a perfect season to rest their starters may have an impact on Whiz's decision. That was a sad affair in Indianapolis yesterday, one that was very difficult and awkward for the players and the fans. Here the Colts were foregoing a shot at NFL history for the sake of resting their players and proceeded to get their butts whipped. This was not good for their morale or their momentum and it certainly was not good for the game of football.

Thus, I think Whiz is going to go after this game with the Packers and make it a statement game. I think he is going to want to pound on them and give them something to think about. Obviously, he won't throw the whole playbook at them, but he will stress being physically dominant and mentally sharp.

In order to make this decision easier, Whiz just needs to remind himself that the "bye weeks" are often more of a hindrance than a help for the top teams. Resting players often means disprupting routines and timing.

Thus, I think Whiz will want to try to keep his team sharp and will try to keep building momentum. Yesterday's game...another relatively meaningless game in several respects for a team that had already sewn up the #4 seed in the NFC...showed how motivated the players are right now and how hungry they are to hit the playoffs in mid-stride. I don't think Whiz will want to change any of that.

Great great work man. You had to do some research to come up with this.

I suggest we rest our wounded such as Fitz and Warner and any other key player. The guys who do play should go all out and try to win. I think it is time for Matt to step up and show us he is our future. I am sure our receivers wonder what happens when Kurt leaves? They need to have confidence that Matt can do the job. I think Green Bay is going to take the same approach. You cannot risk losing your QB on the last game. Neither team should show the other what offense they might use. This will be a strange game but those who do play should play like it is for the superbowl. Taking it easy is one of the best ways to get injured.

Here is a question. Our current kicker is playing rather good to say the least. He is no Rackers but Rackers, if he comes back, will be in not the best shape. His type of injury is very slow to heal. Yet, he is our kicker and helped get us here. I am sure the players will want him in there. What do the coaches do? If Rackers says he is ready do you have a kick off between the two. Do you keep both on the roster just in case. The current guy is getting the ball to the goal line. Has made all the extra points and I think made two field goals. One in excess of 40 yards. I am surprised he has not made some team in the NFL after watching him with us. Looks like he has been on the team all year. He has no Racker leg but he is not dog meat either.

From what I have seen of our punter he should be considered for all pro. On one play last week he appeared to be the only guy to stop a player from going all the way. He stepped right in front of him and took him on head to head. As a short punter he has been great and with that crazy spin he puts on the ball he causes some difficulties with the return guys. Watching his punt in slow motion it is sort of strange. He drops the ball and appears to hit it long after he drops it compared to other kickers. Where did we find this guy? Our punters, kickers, and special team players are doing the job. One player seems to always be the first to hit a returner on kickoffs. I think it may be Cowling as whoever I am thinking of is super fast and evasive.

Cromartie is a lot bigger than I thought he was. He is listed at 6'2" but add to that his very long arms, speed, and jumping ability. He will likely be an all pro someday. Another good draft pick. Graves if you are responsible then you are not as much a turkey as I have thought you were all these years. Maybe you just took the input from the scouts and coaches but at any rate you were likely responsible. About the time Whiz got here all the good players seemed to come on to the scene. We have added people like Campbell and used him differently than his old team and now he is a real difference maker. We finally put Rolle in a position where he could shine. Our OL has now been together for over a year and it really shows. Deuce apparently learned how to play defense. Brown is not making so many early jumps and is knocking people on their butts. Add to this two RB's who are big and fast and young. They did not even fumble last week. The Cards lead the league in scoring in the red zone. We have one of the best stadiums in the NFL that are filled with screaming fans. Life is good as a Cardinal fan. We deserve it if anyone does. One cannot forget a half filled 120 degree stadium that was so empty it looked like a high school game. Like most things it took some leadership to get us out of a 60 year funk. Young Bidwill, Coach Whiz and his assistants brought what this team had been missing. Did anyone notice Coach Whiz going over to his new OC and giving him a big pat on the back and smile near the end of las weeks game? It is not an accident that good teams seem to be good year after year. They have leadership at the top.

 

[Buckybird]

John, my thoughts on the kicker situation is I believe wiz will keep both on the roster because as you say Rackers groin could flare up & be a problem at anytime. This team can't afford to not have a kicker in a playoff game if it does. Hopefully Rackers is ready to go come january.

 

[devilalum]

Vikings are dead in the water. Cards will know at game time if there is a possibility of stealing the #2 seed. If Vikings win rest everybody. If they lose go all out.

My money is on Dallas at home against the Eagles.

 

[Stallion]

Vikings lose to Bears tonight,
Cowboys beat Eagles,
Giants beat Vikings,
Cardinals beat Packers

= Cardinals finish #2 seed,

Go Giants, Cowboys and Cards!

 

[TheHopToad]

Go Giants, Cowboys and Cards!

Yeah, that really hurts to say......go cowboys.