Pretty sure we clinched the division...

[hsandhu]

Unless pittsburgh makes up 3 games on bengals.

If we lose out and Seattle wins out, tiebreakers are

1. Head to head, would be 1-1
2. Division record, both would be 4-2
3. Record In common games, would both be 9-2, both 3-1 vs nfc and afc north
4. Conference record, would both be 8-4
5. Strength of victory, both had same wins losses in nfc west and nfc north
They beat dallas in nfc we beat new orleans , both same record



But we beat cincy , who is three games better then pitt, who they beat.

As long as cincy/n.o. remains better than pitt/dallas we win?

Am I missing something? Let's go cincy, beat pitt this week, still will probably root for dallas to beat green bay though

 

[TJ]

Unless pittsburgh makes up 3 games on bengals.



If we lose out and Seattle wins out, tiebreakers are



1. Head to head, would be 1-1

2. Division record, both would be 4-2

3. Record In common games, would both be 9-2, both 3-1 vs nfc and afc north

4. Conference record, would both be 8-4

5. Strength of victory, both had same wins losses in nfc west and nfc north

They beat dallas in nfc we beat new orleans , both same record







But we beat cincy , who is three games better then pitt, who they beat.



As long as cincy/n.o. remains better than pitt/dallas we win?



Am I missing something? Let's go cincy, beat pitt this week, still will probably root for dallas to beat green bay though

Strength of schedule.

Seattle has played Carolina, which is the only thing keeping their division hopes alive. If they win out and we lose out. They win the West.

 

[hsandhu]

Strength of schedule.

Seattle has played Carolina, which is the only thing keeping their division hopes alive. If they win out and we lose out. They win the West.

No, look at official tie breakers, strength of victory is 5, strength of schedule is 6.

 

[TJ]

No, look at official tie breakers, strength of victory is 5, strength of schedule is 6.

If they win out and we lose out, that means they beat an 11-win Cards team.

 

[hsandhu]

If they win out and we lose out, that means they beat an 11-win Cards team.

And we beat an 11 win Seattle team, it cancels out

 

[TJ]

And we beat an 11 win Seattle team, it cancels out

Exactly, which then goes to strength of schedule; hence, the Carolina game

 

[hsandhu]

Exactly, which then goes to strength of schedule; hence, the Carolina game

No, we beat cincy they beat pittsburgh, that is 3 games up on strength of victory.

 

[TJ]

No, we beat cincy they beat pittsburgh, that is 3 games up on strength of victory.

You have to factor in all games played in SOV. I'm too lazy to go back thru both schedules, but if FiveThirtyEight and every other site indicate we haven't clinched the division, it's because of SOV or SOS.

Remember, too, other teams' performances matter down the stretch.

 

[Bert]

Yeah putting it in the playoff machine the way you described, I dont see any way it changes us from the division champ.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/home/results/400791616~2~400791571~2~400791689~2

 

[hsandhu]

You have to factor in all games played in SOV. I'm too lazy to go back thru both schedules, but if FiveThirtyEight and every other site indicate we haven't clinched the division, it's because of SOV or SOS.

I checked, yes the reason it is not official because still a chance dallas,pitt wins mean more than cincy,no which was my original post.

But right now we have 3 games up, likely pittsburgh needs to catch cincy for us to lose, or dallas extends lead over new orleans to make up that difference.

We're pretty solid to win west even in worst case we lose out, my original point.

 

[AZfaninMN]

Yeah putting it in the playoff machine the way you described, I dont see any way it changes us from the division champ.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/home/results/400791616~2~400791571~2~400791689~2

I did the same thing and set it as the better record team winning every game except the cardinals losing out and if Dallas wins 2 or Pittsburgh plus Dallas each win one they surpass us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Bert]

I did the same thing and set it as the better record team winning every game except the cardinals losing out and if Dallas wins 2 or Pittsburgh plus Dallas each win one they surpass us.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's crazy! so many scenarios lol. It's fun.

 

[TJ]

Here you go

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[babedimancheff]

if the Cards lose the next two games and then lose to Seattle...they become a 5th seed...if Seattle wins up to then.

if the Cards beat Seattle, they get a 2 seed and Bucs are in playoffs if Bucs win out

 

[TheHopToad]

Yeah putting it in the playoff machine the way you described, I dont see any way it changes us from the division champ.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/home/results/400791616~2~400791571~2~400791689~2

Here is the one scenario where we finish second and get the 5th seed:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0791689~2~400791620~2~400791610~1~400791563~2

It does indeed come down to Pittsburgh and SOV for Seattle. The Steelers do not have to catch Cincinnati, but they do need to win their remaining four games, combined with four Seattle victories and the Cards losing the rest of their games. Far fetched, but if ALL of that happens, we'll not win the divison.

 

[TJ]

FiveThirtyEight gives Seattle a 3% chance of all of that happening and winning the division.

Let's just beat philly and not worry about all of the other stuff.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Where's the stickman!? Don't jinx us!!!

 

[TheCardinal]

Yes, the Cardinals are close, but not division champs yet. We need any of the following:

Arizona with one more win/tie

OR

Seattle with one more loss/tie

OR

Six wins in the following fifteen games over the next four weeks:
CIN over PIT (counts as two wins)
NO over TB
GB over DAL
CIN over SF
NO over DET
NYJ over DAL
DEN over PIT
CIN over DEN
NO over JAC
BUF over DAL
BAL over PIT
CIN over BAL
NO over ATL
WSH over DAL
CLE over PIT

Let the countdown begin! If Seattle beats Baltimore, we could still clinch before our Sunday night kickoff next week. Still, I agree that we should probably pull for GB to lose to DAL.

 

[TheHopToad]

Yeah, it's still pretty complicated. We could get to the last week of the season and still be in play for the #2 seed and a bye or even the #6 seed, if the Vikings run the table, including a win at Green Bay in week 17.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0791660~1~400791565~1~400791683~2~400791575~2

Gonna be fun regardless!

 

[TheCardinal]

If we only get five of the things on my list above, our strength-of-victory (SOV) would be tied and it would come down to strength-of-schedule (SOS). Our only differences are that we played PHI/NO and Seattle played DAL/CRL. The Seahawks' lead in this would be insurmountable because in order to tie us on SOV, it would force enough DAL wins or NO losses to make it mathematically impossible to catch them on SOS. So, no need to worry about the NEXT step beyond that, with that messy combined offensive/defensive ranking stuff.

 

[Azlen]

Yes, the Cardinals are close, but not division champs yet. We need any of the following:

Arizona with one more win/tie

OR

Seattle with one more loss/tie

OR

Six wins in the following fifteen games over the next four weeks:
CIN over PIT (counts as two wins)
NO over TB
GB over DAL
CIN over SF
NO over DET
NYJ over DAL
DEN over PIT
CIN over DEN
NO over JAC
BUF over DAL
BAL over PIT
CIN over BAL
NO over ATL
WSH over DAL
CLE over PIT

Let the countdown begin! If Seattle beats Baltimore, we could still clinch before our Sunday night kickoff next week. Still, I agree that we should probably pull for GB to lose to DAL.

Yep, If we lose out and Seattle wins out then it all comes down to how New Orleans, Dallas, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh all do over the last four weeks. We want Cincy and New Orleans to win as much as possible and Dallas and Pittsburgh to lose as much as possible. We're currently 3 games up there as currently Dallas and New Orleans have the same record and Cincy is 3 games up on Pittsburgh.

Or we could just win one of our last three and make it easy. Really just beat Green Bay and we've clinched the NFC West and a first round bye.

 

[babedimancheff]

you wont know anything till the final week

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Yes, the Cardinals are close, but not division champs yet. We need any of the following:

Arizona with one more win/tie

OR

Seattle with one more loss/tie

OR

Six wins in the following fifteen games over the next four weeks:
CIN over PIT (counts as two wins)
NO over TB
GB over DAL
CIN over SF
NO over DET
NYJ over DAL
DEN over PIT
CIN over DEN
NO over JAC
BUF over DAL
BAL over PIT
CIN over BAL
NO over ATL
WSH over DAL
CLE over PIT

Let the countdown begin! If Seattle beats Baltimore, we could still clinch before our Sunday night kickoff next week. Still, I agree that we should probably pull for GB to lose to DAL.

There is no, "if," for Shaub is crappy enough, but it appears Jimmy Freaking Claussen is starting.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Just freaking win a game... Unless Wilson gets hurt, they (Seattle) ain't losing again...they had a bye, 3 consecutive road games, and end the season--before us--with 3 lames on the schedule.

Meanwhile, will have played 4-6 on the road and may finish the season's finals 8 games with 7 games vs. playoff teams.

Seattle is healthy and rested and Cards are battered and tired.

Just win.

 

[TheCardinal]

If you think these scenarios are complicated, just be thankful our game today didn't end in a draw! This, and then another tie against the Packers in a few weeks would have led to a nightmare tie-breaker at 10-4-2 vs 11-5 (equivalent W-L-T percentages). Our common games would be 8-2-2 vs 9-3 (same). Our conference records would be 7-3-2 vs 8-4 (same). Then, on SOV, I assume you could only count the records in our 10 wins versus their 11 wins, so with an unequal number of games, you'd have to break it down to the W-L-T percentages of each of those teams, instead of canceling out the common wins. Yikes!