Pro Football Prospectus

[Totally_Red]

I perused this publication at the local Barnes & Noble earlier this week. They have some very interesting insights into the Cardinals which I thought I'd share with the message board.

1. Arizona has the most stable (secure) coaching staff in the division, coming off the best season won-loss wise in many years, despite critical injuries to their best defender in Adrian Wilson and young QB Matt Leinart. They say Mike Nolan barely survived in Frisco and was forced to hire controversal Mike Martz as his O.C. Scott Linehan is on very thin ice in St. Louis. And how will Mike Holmgren's swan song in Seattle work with his successor on board and possibly looking over his shoulder?

They make the point that offensive line coach and defensive secondary coach are the two areas where assistants can have the most impact and for O-line coach point to the difference Tom Cable(sp.) made in Oakland last season. They are high on Russ Grimm. PFP notes the very rare continuity in the Cardinals O-line, but say the right side has to improve. They fault Deuce Lutui for inconsistency and note Levi Brown's performance against Seattle.

2. They note the failure to add a "speed back" in the offseason and say Ken Whisenhunt won't be able to execute the same type of run-based attack he had in Pittsburgh. While half the league would kill to have the Cardinal's elite wide receiver combo, Whis isn't totally comfortable passing the ball as much as Arizona did in 2007.

3. While Rod Hood was regarded as nothing more than a nickle corner in Philly, they are very complimentary of his 2007 performance, while noting some lapses in his play. They are highly critical of Eric Green and Antrel Rolle's play at CB, noting especially Rolle's propensity as one of the most penalized players in the NFL over the last two seasons. As they say, it was obvious he could not play CB at the NFL level, and project that he could excel at safety. They say the sooner DRC hits the field and relegates Green to nickle corner the better. They do however question his tackling ability, but say he has solid potential and "let the other 10 defenders make the tackles."

4. From memory, they faulted the hugmonous number of Cardinal penalties and said the Cardinals were 1st in special teams and offensive penalties, and 4th in defensive penalties, and were #1 by a wide margin in number of penalties. Antrel Rolle, Wayne Gandy, and Leonard Pope were the most penalty-prone.

5. They were very critical of the decision to cut Player and sign Mike Barr and the resulting falloff in the punting game. OTOH, Neil Rackers led the league in kickoff distance in 2007, after coming in second to Olindo Mare in both 2006 and 2005.

 

[JeffGollin]

I love Pro Football Prospectus because their analysis drills down all the way to such esoteric stuff like the percentage (& productivity) of plays run wide left, med. left, up the middle., med. right and wide right and likewise how the kinds (& productivity) of plays run at the defense.

They also include stuff like "Percentage of Passes Caught" figures for each receiver.

It can't help but make its readers "football smarter."

Only danger is that, once you're hooked, you may stop "having a life" and wind up being one of those guys you see muttering as they stumble along the sidewalk.

 

[Duckjake]

They do however question his tackling ability, but say he has solid potential and "let the other 10 defenders make the tackles."

Make that the "other 9 defenders" because Hood doesn't tackle well either.

This of course applies to run support or tackling TE/RBs after short passes not dragging down wide receivers after the catch.

 

[DaisyCutter]

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb...otes-from-pro-football-prospectus-115421.html

 

[CardinalChris]

Make that the "other 9 defenders" because Hood doesn't tackle well either.

This of course applies to run support or tackling TE/RBs after short passes not dragging down wide receivers after the catch.

CBs must tackle and jam off the line in a 3-4 defense.

 

[football karma]

the defense has to get better at 3rd down defense ( i.e all the variables that go into that-- better coverage, a little better pass rush, etc)

the koolaid drinker thinks that Rolle switching for Holt, DRC playing nickel and Wilson coming back dramatically increases the speed and athleticism of the secondary

the offense has to cut down on the penalties -- I am willing to bet that fewer penalties = fewer 2nd / 3rd and long = fewer turnovers

the optimist in me says that by being more comfortable/familiar with the scheme will lead to better concentration and fewer penalties --

still plenty of time for optimism

 

[DaisyCutter]

the defense has to get better at 3rd down defense ( i.e all the variables that go into that-- better coverage, a little better pass rush, etc)

One of the notes that the Prospectus makes in the intro is that defenses that are sound on 1st and 2nd down, but fail on third almost always improve in the following season. Mostly because coaching staffs focus on this in all of their offseason planning and training camp.

The bottom line of the Prospectus seems to be that the Cards are going to have about the same record (2008 mean projection: 7.5 wins), but "Don't be surprised if it is the defense, not offense, that finally leads Arizona to the postseason."

The probability that we'll be a "Playoff Contender" or "Super Bowl Contender" (9+ wins) is 37%, according to FO.

 

[Duckjake]

One of the notes that the Prospectus makes in the intro is that defenses that are sound on 1st and 2nd down, but fail on third almost always improve in the following season. Mostly because coaching staffs focus on this in all of their offseason planning and training camp.

Except for the Cardinals. It seems to many of us long suffering Cards fans that they've been doing the 1 stuff, 2 stuff, 3 first down
for a long time.

Could be a result of the constant turnover of coaches.

 

[JeffGollin]

I picked up my copy yesterday. It is scary detailed.

For example, when you browse through its tables, it will tell you that, if you wanted to run against the Cardinals last year, you did it over RT (where the Cardinal ranked 30th in stopping the run). Cards ranked 11th or better against runs around both ends, up the middle or off LT.

And you'd discover that the Cards ranked dead last (a year ago and in 2005) in runs longer than 10 yards from the LOS and that Edge's overall RB efficiency (the way PFP does it) is 1% below the league average.

Those among a thousand other cool things.

I hope to include a lot of these in my preseason team analysis for the BRS, but to be quite frank, they make my brain hurt.

 

[DaisyCutter]

You're totally right, Jeff. There are new comparative tables in the back, as well. I'm sad that they weren't in earlier editions.

For example, Steve Breaston as a punt returner was one of the 20 best over average production. But he was among the 20 worst as a kickoff returner.

The other "problem" is that the individual essays aren't outlined in the Table of Contents, so you have to search through the teams to discover them. The most interesting of these is the "Expectations by Week" tables in the Pittsburgh Steelers section. There's a really cool table showing the amount of wins a team can expect depending on their record at certain points in the season.

Interestingly, a team that is 3-1 entering Week 5 is twice as likely to make the postseason as a team that's 2-2, some 56% to 23%.

 

[DaisyCutter]

Another interesting note from the back tables: Antrel Rolle was one of the five worst CBs in the NFL in yielding yards after catch. I'm a little worried that Wolfley might be right about his ability to tackle in the open field.

 

[Pariah]

Another interesting note from the back tables: Antrel Rolle was one of the five worst CBs in the NFL in yielding yards after catch. I'm a little worried that Wolfley might be right about his ability to tackle in the open field.

Nah. He was just too far away from his assignment to even try to tackle them.

 

[cgolden]

2. They note the failure to add a "speed back" in the offseason and say Ken Whisenhunt won't be able to execute the same type of run-based attack he had in Pittsburgh.

I understand that we need a homerun threat but Whiz mastered the Steelers offense without Fast Willie Parker. They were highly successful with Bettis and even Duece Staley.

 

[abomb]

Picked up my copy last weekend. Love it.