Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Drafting a QB is almost always a matter of taking what you see and imaging how he plays in the NFL. The last sure thing I saw was Eli Manning. That’s how rare that is. Luck was close. Everyone else was an estimation. Even the best analysts miss as often as they hit. If someone could hit consistently they’d open a consulting firm and be the richest person associated with the NFL. With everything done except the Pro Days, I think every team has made up their collective mind on the QBs.
Still you have to take your guess and here’s what I see.
I still have Mayfield on top. He has all the physical tools and the performance numbers that says he knows how to use them. His height concerns some, but he’s learned how to deal with that. They’ll be an adjustment due to NFL defensive athleticism, but he’ll be fine. Then there’s demeanor. It’s only bragging if you can’t do it. With guys like a Fitz and Peterson around him, he’ll fall in line. Keeping Fitz was huge in this respect.
I’ve got Darnold next. He’s another guy with all the tools. He needs to mature a little, but he reminds me of Rothlisberger. He’s not your typical great athlete but he’s got an elite arm and a real feel for the game.
I’d take Allen third. He’s got the most to learn but he also has rare arm strength and accuracy. Put him with a couple of awesome receivers and he’ll put points on the board. He may never be a great game manager, but he’s going to be functional in the NFL. It’s hard to tell how far he can go but you can’t teach arm strength to any great extent. If the price to move up is more than a first and second (which it will be) I’d pass.
Next comes Rosen. I’ve got to admit I can’t figure him out. My instincts just tell me he’s not big time. Of course I said the same thing about Rodgers. Rosen on paper has it all. I just don’t see the presence on the field. It’s just an impression but I can’t shake it. I would not move up to take him.
The toughest call is Jackson. His durability is an issue, especially if he runs. He also needs to improve his accuracy. Forget the numbers, he makes too many ill advised throws. He’s taken some big steps forward but can he go further? The answer is probably yes, but he’s not a sure thing. Like Tebow he’s said I’m only a QB. He’s 2 years from starting if he gets there. I’m not opposed to taking hi at 15, but moving up would be an error.
Finally there’s Rudolph. He has a good arm, is very coachable and has the makings of a solid game manager. He’s a little like Andy Dalton. He may not get you to a Super Bowl, but he’ll be an NFL QB for years. He’d be okay at 15, but nothing special.
No one else is a round 1 candidate. Statistically the odds of any of them taking you any place is daunting. In fact anyone after the first 6 picks is typically not outstanding.
Still you have to take your guess and here’s what I see.
I still have Mayfield on top. He has all the physical tools and the performance numbers that says he knows how to use them. His height concerns some, but he’s learned how to deal with that. They’ll be an adjustment due to NFL defensive athleticism, but he’ll be fine. Then there’s demeanor. It’s only bragging if you can’t do it. With guys like a Fitz and Peterson around him, he’ll fall in line. Keeping Fitz was huge in this respect.
I’ve got Darnold next. He’s another guy with all the tools. He needs to mature a little, but he reminds me of Rothlisberger. He’s not your typical great athlete but he’s got an elite arm and a real feel for the game.
I’d take Allen third. He’s got the most to learn but he also has rare arm strength and accuracy. Put him with a couple of awesome receivers and he’ll put points on the board. He may never be a great game manager, but he’s going to be functional in the NFL. It’s hard to tell how far he can go but you can’t teach arm strength to any great extent. If the price to move up is more than a first and second (which it will be) I’d pass.
Next comes Rosen. I’ve got to admit I can’t figure him out. My instincts just tell me he’s not big time. Of course I said the same thing about Rodgers. Rosen on paper has it all. I just don’t see the presence on the field. It’s just an impression but I can’t shake it. I would not move up to take him.
The toughest call is Jackson. His durability is an issue, especially if he runs. He also needs to improve his accuracy. Forget the numbers, he makes too many ill advised throws. He’s taken some big steps forward but can he go further? The answer is probably yes, but he’s not a sure thing. Like Tebow he’s said I’m only a QB. He’s 2 years from starting if he gets there. I’m not opposed to taking hi at 15, but moving up would be an error.
Finally there’s Rudolph. He has a good arm, is very coachable and has the makings of a solid game manager. He’s a little like Andy Dalton. He may not get you to a Super Bowl, but he’ll be an NFL QB for years. He’d be okay at 15, but nothing special.
No one else is a round 1 candidate. Statistically the odds of any of them taking you any place is daunting. In fact anyone after the first 6 picks is typically not outstanding.