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College players' stock falling in NBA Draft
08:34 AM EDT on Thursday, April 29, 2004
BY KEVIN McNAMARA
Journal Sports Writer
Journal file photo / Glenn Osmundson With the influx of foreign players and high school stars eligible for the NBA Draft, college stars like PC All-American Ryan Gomes are no longer shoo-ins as top-20 picks, or for the money that goes with that.
PROVIDENCE -- The days of the college superstar dominating the NBA Draft appear to be over, and while that makes Danny Ainge's job tougher than ever, it could mean very good news for Providence College men's basketball fans.
In each of the last two drafts, a high school star (LeBron James) and a foreign prospect (Yao Ming) were the top picks. That combination of peach-fuzzed prepsters and 7-foot foreigners only seems to be growing. In fact, pro scouts and basketball knowledgeable agree that players from those two groups of talent will be the lifeblood of this year's draft.
Example A comes in the travels of Ainge, the Boston Celtics' basketball chief. The Celts own three picks (15, 24, 25) in the draft's first round, and Ainge and his top lieutenants have scattered all over Europe and the Middle East for the last few months. Back on the mainland, they have popped in at every major high school all-star game to check on the top talent.
"This summer is huge for us, and we'll know more by training camp if we've had a good summer," Ainge said a few days ago. "I'm optimistic about this draft. I think there are guys that can help (right away) and there are some developmental guys. That's always a tough thing to weigh -- the developmental guy that has a chance to be a special player and the guys who are further along."
This isn't good news for college players -- especially those like PC's Ryan Gomes -- who are interested in leaving school early for the NBA. Gomes has until May 10 to declare for the draft and he's likely to pull the trigger sometime early next week. But his chances of landing in the draft lottery -- or the first 14 picks -- are slim. Slipping into the top 20 appears a long-shot, too, due in large part to the presence of relative unknowns like Andris Biedrins, Kosta Perovic and Josh Smith. They're the players who are drawing the attention of scouts this spring.
"The truth is, there are more international players and high school players who are influencing the first round than ever before," said Chris Ekstrand, a consultant to the NBA who helps run the league's pre-draft camp in Chicago. "A lot of these players don't have a long track record, or none at all, and that makes it a hard job for the scouts right now."
What Gomes and many other current college stars will do is apply for the draft but not retain an agent. That will enables Gomes and the others to return to their schools next season if they don't like where they're selected, if they are selected. Over the next month, Gomes will try to line up workouts with several pro teams and have them give him a more well-informed read on his chances of being a first-round draft pick.
First-rounders are rewarded with guaranteed three-year contracts on a predetermined wage scale. The top pick will earn about $3.4 million in his rookie season, while the 29th and final selection in the first round is slated to earn about $690,000.
"Ryan needs a feel for where he stands, and we've talked a few times, and it looks like (applying for the draft) is what he's thinking about doing," said PC coach Tim Welsh. "He's doing a lot of homework. He understands who the guys are coming out (of college) probably more than I do. I think Ryan will make an informed, smart decision."
Gomes has said that if he's not assured of a spot in the top 20 of the first round (there are 29 picks), he'll return to school. As a returning first-team All-American, Gomes will draw plenty of notice next season. Welsh has said big-name opponents and ESPN executives are talking about scheduling PC if Gomes returns. Welsh said he spent time two weeks ago watching Marcus Douthit at the Portsmouth Invitational pre-draft camp and spoke with several scouts about Gomes.
He's also helped Gomes contact the NBA and take advantage of a program run by the league that provides college players with a best-guess of where they stand in the draft. Underclassmen who don't sign with an agent have until June 17 to withdraw their names from the June 24th draft.
"The scouts I've talked to all say the same thing: possible first round, later in the round," Welsh said. "But next year it's a lock he'd be in the top 15, if not higher, if Ryan continues to show the progression he's enjoyed the last two years with us."
The NBA isn't ruling out the best college players, of course. So far, a slew of underclassmen have declared and are dealing with agents, officially ending their college careers. That group includes UConn's Emeka Okafor (possibly the top pick overall) and Ben Gordon, Minnesota freshman Kris Humphries, Arizona's Andre Iguodala, Colorado big man David Harrison and Nevada's Kirk Snyder. All six players are considered first-rounders.
Like Gomes, many other talented college players haven't decided to apply for the draft or won't sign with an agent. Those players include Duke's Luol Deng, a possible top-five pick, Wisconsin's Devin Harris, Stanford's Josh Childress, Syracuse's Hakim Warrick and Mississippi State's Lawrence Roberts.
Then there are the few seniors the NBA deems first-round ready. The only senior who looks like a sure-fire first-rounder is St. Joseph's guard Jameer Nelson. BYU's Rafael Araujo, Oregon's Luke Jackson, Xavier's Romain Sato, Duke's Chris Duhon and a few others are holding out hope that they are chosen early.
First-round material
The following are high school and foreign prospects scouts say could be first-round draft picks in the June NBA Draft. Some players listed have yet to apply for the draft. The deadline is May 10.
HIGH SCHOOL
NAME HT WEIGHT HOMETOWN
Dwight Howard 6-10 240 Atlanta
Shaun Livingston 6-7 175 Peoria, Ill.
Al Jefferson 6-9 250 Prentiss, Miss.
J.R. Smith 6-5 210 Newark, N.J.
Sebastian Telfair 6-0 170 Brooklyn, N.Y.
Robert Swift 7-0 245 Bakersfield, Cal.
Dorell Wright 6-7 195 Los Angeles
FOREIGN
NAME HT WEIGHT COUNTRY
Andris Biedrins 6-11 240 Latvia
Peter John Ramos 7-4 260 Puerto Rico
Ivan Chiriaev 7-1 245 Russia
Kosta Perovic 7-2 260 Serbia
Pavel Podkolzine 7-3 300 Poland
Predrag Samardziski 7-0 245 Serbia
Tiago Splitter 6-11 235 Spain
Sasha Vujacic 6-6 190 Slovenia
08:34 AM EDT on Thursday, April 29, 2004
BY KEVIN McNAMARA
Journal Sports Writer
Journal file photo / Glenn Osmundson With the influx of foreign players and high school stars eligible for the NBA Draft, college stars like PC All-American Ryan Gomes are no longer shoo-ins as top-20 picks, or for the money that goes with that.
PROVIDENCE -- The days of the college superstar dominating the NBA Draft appear to be over, and while that makes Danny Ainge's job tougher than ever, it could mean very good news for Providence College men's basketball fans.
In each of the last two drafts, a high school star (LeBron James) and a foreign prospect (Yao Ming) were the top picks. That combination of peach-fuzzed prepsters and 7-foot foreigners only seems to be growing. In fact, pro scouts and basketball knowledgeable agree that players from those two groups of talent will be the lifeblood of this year's draft.
Example A comes in the travels of Ainge, the Boston Celtics' basketball chief. The Celts own three picks (15, 24, 25) in the draft's first round, and Ainge and his top lieutenants have scattered all over Europe and the Middle East for the last few months. Back on the mainland, they have popped in at every major high school all-star game to check on the top talent.
"This summer is huge for us, and we'll know more by training camp if we've had a good summer," Ainge said a few days ago. "I'm optimistic about this draft. I think there are guys that can help (right away) and there are some developmental guys. That's always a tough thing to weigh -- the developmental guy that has a chance to be a special player and the guys who are further along."
This isn't good news for college players -- especially those like PC's Ryan Gomes -- who are interested in leaving school early for the NBA. Gomes has until May 10 to declare for the draft and he's likely to pull the trigger sometime early next week. But his chances of landing in the draft lottery -- or the first 14 picks -- are slim. Slipping into the top 20 appears a long-shot, too, due in large part to the presence of relative unknowns like Andris Biedrins, Kosta Perovic and Josh Smith. They're the players who are drawing the attention of scouts this spring.
"The truth is, there are more international players and high school players who are influencing the first round than ever before," said Chris Ekstrand, a consultant to the NBA who helps run the league's pre-draft camp in Chicago. "A lot of these players don't have a long track record, or none at all, and that makes it a hard job for the scouts right now."
What Gomes and many other current college stars will do is apply for the draft but not retain an agent. That will enables Gomes and the others to return to their schools next season if they don't like where they're selected, if they are selected. Over the next month, Gomes will try to line up workouts with several pro teams and have them give him a more well-informed read on his chances of being a first-round draft pick.
First-rounders are rewarded with guaranteed three-year contracts on a predetermined wage scale. The top pick will earn about $3.4 million in his rookie season, while the 29th and final selection in the first round is slated to earn about $690,000.
"Ryan needs a feel for where he stands, and we've talked a few times, and it looks like (applying for the draft) is what he's thinking about doing," said PC coach Tim Welsh. "He's doing a lot of homework. He understands who the guys are coming out (of college) probably more than I do. I think Ryan will make an informed, smart decision."
Gomes has said that if he's not assured of a spot in the top 20 of the first round (there are 29 picks), he'll return to school. As a returning first-team All-American, Gomes will draw plenty of notice next season. Welsh has said big-name opponents and ESPN executives are talking about scheduling PC if Gomes returns. Welsh said he spent time two weeks ago watching Marcus Douthit at the Portsmouth Invitational pre-draft camp and spoke with several scouts about Gomes.
He's also helped Gomes contact the NBA and take advantage of a program run by the league that provides college players with a best-guess of where they stand in the draft. Underclassmen who don't sign with an agent have until June 17 to withdraw their names from the June 24th draft.
"The scouts I've talked to all say the same thing: possible first round, later in the round," Welsh said. "But next year it's a lock he'd be in the top 15, if not higher, if Ryan continues to show the progression he's enjoyed the last two years with us."
The NBA isn't ruling out the best college players, of course. So far, a slew of underclassmen have declared and are dealing with agents, officially ending their college careers. That group includes UConn's Emeka Okafor (possibly the top pick overall) and Ben Gordon, Minnesota freshman Kris Humphries, Arizona's Andre Iguodala, Colorado big man David Harrison and Nevada's Kirk Snyder. All six players are considered first-rounders.
Like Gomes, many other talented college players haven't decided to apply for the draft or won't sign with an agent. Those players include Duke's Luol Deng, a possible top-five pick, Wisconsin's Devin Harris, Stanford's Josh Childress, Syracuse's Hakim Warrick and Mississippi State's Lawrence Roberts.
Then there are the few seniors the NBA deems first-round ready. The only senior who looks like a sure-fire first-rounder is St. Joseph's guard Jameer Nelson. BYU's Rafael Araujo, Oregon's Luke Jackson, Xavier's Romain Sato, Duke's Chris Duhon and a few others are holding out hope that they are chosen early.
First-round material
The following are high school and foreign prospects scouts say could be first-round draft picks in the June NBA Draft. Some players listed have yet to apply for the draft. The deadline is May 10.
HIGH SCHOOL
NAME HT WEIGHT HOMETOWN
Dwight Howard 6-10 240 Atlanta
Shaun Livingston 6-7 175 Peoria, Ill.
Al Jefferson 6-9 250 Prentiss, Miss.
J.R. Smith 6-5 210 Newark, N.J.
Sebastian Telfair 6-0 170 Brooklyn, N.Y.
Robert Swift 7-0 245 Bakersfield, Cal.
Dorell Wright 6-7 195 Los Angeles
FOREIGN
NAME HT WEIGHT COUNTRY
Andris Biedrins 6-11 240 Latvia
Peter John Ramos 7-4 260 Puerto Rico
Ivan Chiriaev 7-1 245 Russia
Kosta Perovic 7-2 260 Serbia
Pavel Podkolzine 7-3 300 Poland
Predrag Samardziski 7-0 245 Serbia
Tiago Splitter 6-11 235 Spain
Sasha Vujacic 6-6 190 Slovenia
