QB Value in relation to Wins - Sando - FWIW

[JC_AZ]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/99159/how-many-victories-qbs-are-really-worth

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Interesting article.

Yet, I don't care what kind of QB rating is used, a QB's success still is reliant on the offensive line in front of them.

Yeah, yeah, the Tom Brady's of the NFL can help out a bad offensive, but that is to a point.

Cause San Fran has one of, if not the best offensive line in the NFL, and Seattle is not to far behind.

I know the media thinks this league is a QB driven league, but the best two QB's in the league were not in the Superbowl last year, but arguably the two best offensive lines in the league were.

Just sayin'

That is why Jonathan Cooper is such a huge deal for the Cardinals.

 

[Goldfield]

Interesting article.

Yet, I don't care what kind of QB rating is used, a QB's success still is reliant on the offensive line in front of them.

Yeah, yeah, the Tom Brady's of the NFL can help out a bad offensive, but that is to a point.

Cause San Fran has one of, if not the best offensive line in the NFL, and Seattle is not to far behind.

I know the media thinks this league is a QB driven league, but the best two QB's in the league were not in the Superbowl last year, but arguably the two best offeopnsive lines in the league were.

Just sayin'

That is why Jonathan Cooper is such a huge deal for the Cardinals.

This is a good point. We all know if you don't have a good QB you have no shot.

But the oline determines how effective each and every play will be.

That why I feel the Cardinals are going to be much much better this year. Improved line play and also improved QB, and probably improved RBs.

 

[Hollywood]

Interesting article.

Yet, I don't care what kind of QB rating is used, a QB's success still is reliant on the offensive line in front of them.

Yeah, yeah, the Tom Brady's of the NFL can help out a bad offensive, but that is to a point.

Cause San Fran has one of, if not the best offensive line in the NFL, and Seattle is not to far behind.

I know the media thinks this league is a QB driven league, but the best two QB's in the league were not in the Superbowl last year, but arguably the two best offensive lines in the league were.

Just sayin'

That is why Jonathan Cooper is such a huge deal for the Cardinals.

Agree, the QB's may be driving the league but the o-line's are the engine. And without an engine a driver is just a guy sitting down.

 

[DoTheDew]

Interesting article.

Yet, I don't care what kind of QB rating is used, a QB's success still is reliant on the offensive line in front of them.

Yeah, yeah, the Tom Brady's of the NFL can help out a bad offensive, but that is to a point.

Cause San Fran has one of, if not the best offensive line in the NFL, and Seattle is not to far behind.

I know the media thinks this league is a QB driven league, but the best two QB's in the league were not in the Superbowl last year, but arguably the two best offensive lines in the league were.

Just sayin'

That is why Jonathan Cooper is such a huge deal for the Cardinals.

Tell it to the Colts. Tons of success with Peyton Manning. Same OLine the next year and the worst record in the league. Same basic OLine the year following with Luck and back in the playoffs.

OLine matters but QB matters more.

 

[kerouac9]

Interesting article.

Yet, I don't care what kind of QB rating is used, a QB's success still is reliant on the offensive line in front of them.

Yeah, yeah, the Tom Brady's of the NFL can help out a bad offensive, but that is to a point.

Cause San Fran has one of, if not the best offensive line in the NFL, and Seattle is not to far behind.

I know the media thinks this league is a QB driven league, but the best two QB's in the league were not in the Superbowl last year, but arguably the two best offensive lines in the league were.

Just sayin'

That is why Jonathan Cooper is such a huge deal for the Cardinals.

Mmm... Not so much. You should add that the two teams in the Super Bowl had the best run-blocking offensive linemen in the league. Because historical data supports the argument that running backs are supported by offensive lines, but there's really not that much correlation between great offensive line play and great quarterback play. By all accounts, Brandon Weeden played with a great offensive line in front of him, as did Matt Cassel in Kansas City.

 

[john h]

Mmm... Not so much. You should add that the two teams in the Super Bowl had the best run-blocking offensive linemen in the league. Because historical data supports the argument that running backs are supported by offensive lines, but there's really not that much correlation between great offensive line play and great quarterback play. By all accounts, Brandon Weeden played with a great offensive line in front of him, as did Matt Cassel in Kansas City.

How much did Peyton Manning improve Denver. Some great QBs who have a fast delivery, can recognize defenses and change the call at the line, are going to be successful without a great OL. This new breed of QB like in Seattle or SF make the OL not as important. You have to be very careful in rushing RGIII or he will eat you alive. Our own Kurt Warner even though slow afoot could read defenses so well and change his call at the line that he was very successful. I do not think his Ol was great. Certainly a great OL makes for a much better team but a Peyton Manning can make for a Superbowl with an average OL. (IMHO). One thing any good team needs is a very good QB otherwise you are doomed to being a middle of the pack team no matter who you have in your OL. The Vikings lose Manning and go from contender or champ to last. Denver gets Manning and goes from average to contender. Let uis all hope our new QB rises up and makes us a winner. If he can make us an 8/8 or 9/7 he will have performed a miracle. I am sorry we did not draft a QB at all. Not that he would beat out Palmer. I would draft one every year until we got a real one. We need to stay healthy, have good coaching, have the ball bounce our way more often than not get a little lucky, have Palmer play over his head to reach a 9/7 otherwise we win 6 or 7.

 

[john h]

Mmm... Not so much. You should add that the two teams in the Super Bowl had the best run-blocking offensive linemen in the league. Because historical data supports the argument that running backs are supported by offensive lines, but there's really not that much correlation between great offensive line play and great quarterback play. By all accounts, Brandon Weeden played with a great offensive line in front of him, as did Matt Cassel in Kansas City.

How much did Peyton Manning improve Denver. Some great QBs who have a fast delivery, can recognize defenses and change the call at the line, are going to be successful without a great OL. This new breed of QB like in Seattle or SF make the OL not as important. You have to be very careful in rushing RGIII or he will eat you alive. Our own Kurt Warner even though slow afoot could read defenses so well and change his call at the line that he was very successful. I do not think his Ol was great. Certainly a great OL makes for a much better team but a Peyton Manning can make for a Superbowl with an average OL. (IMHO). One thing any good team needs is a very good QB otherwise you are doomed to being a middle of the pack team no matter who you have in your OL. The Vikings lose Manning and go from contender or champ to last. Denver gets Manning and goes from average to contender. Let us all hope our new QB rises up and makes us a winner. If he can make us an 8/8 or 9/7 team he will have performed a miracle. I am sorry we did not draft a QB at all. Not that he would beat out Palmer. I would draft one every year until we got a real one. We need to stay healthy, have good coaching, have the ball bounce our way more often than not get a lucky, have Palmer play over his head to reach a 9/7 otherwise we win 6 or 7.

 

[ARZCardinals]

if we had Manning....we'd be in a whole new world of football.

He makes the entire team better

IMO he's the best to have ever played the game

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Tell it to the Colts. Tons of success with Peyton Manning. Same OLine the next year and the worst record in the league. Same basic OLine the year following with Luck and back in the playoffs.

OLine matters but QB matters more.

How many rings does Peyton Manning have?

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Mmm... Not so much. You should add that the two teams in the Super Bowl had the best run-blocking offensive linemen in the league. Because historical data supports the argument that running backs are supported by offensive lines, but there's really not that much correlation between great offensive line play and great quarterback play. By all accounts, Brandon Weeden played with a great offensive line in front of him, as did Matt Cassel in Kansas City.

Interesting. I can buy into that logic.

Maybe there is a comprise somewhere. Cause I am not disputing the QB is not extremely important, most important to be honest, but it is far and few that have won it all with only a great QB.

You still need something else to win the big one.

 

[kerouac9]

Interesting. I can buy into that logic.

Maybe there is a comprise somewhere. Cause I am not disputing the QB is not extremely important, most important to be honest, but it is far and few that have won it all with only a great QB.

You still need something else to win the big one.

I just think that the "won it all" metric is a little too limiting. There's only one team that can win the Super Bowl every year, does that mean that in 2013 Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady were all abject failures? Of course that's not the case.

But I think we can say that Rodgers and Brees have managed to excel as quarterbacks despite having their offensive lines collapse around them or not be that good to begin with.

I can't find it right now, but I know I saw a headline somewhere that was "The Kansas City Chiefs are Bound For Disappointment" and the argument was that left tackles only need to be "good enough" for their quarterbacks to succeed.

The reality is that Peyton Manning might have won the Super Bowl if his defensive back not mysteriously failed to drop back in overtime in Denver. Did he not go to the Super Bowl because he isn't good enough? That's nonsense.

EDIT: What I said on a different thread was that for a team to become an elite team, they need two of an elite quarterback, an elite pass rusher, or an elite cornerback. I think that the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints have shown that you can be a very good team with only one of those components, but it's much harder.

EDIT: Here's the article that I was talking about. It's E$PN In$ider, so you may not be able to see all of it: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...ansas-city-chiefs-regret-drafting-eric-fisher

 

[Darkside]

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/99159/how-many-victories-qbs-are-really-worth

Interesting article but poor argument. For their extrapolations to be accurate, all offensive lines, RB's, etc need to be identical in caliber, and that's simply not the case. It also doesn't take into account time of possession or # of offensive possessions. QBR fluctuates too drastically if you put these QB's on other teams, and therefore it's rather useless to use in an analysis on win variation. And you can't use Carson's QBR from when he was with the Raiders and claim it'll be the same here and result in only 2 extra wins.

 

[Jim Otis]

Interesting article but poor argument. For their extrapolations to be accurate, all offensive lines, RB's, etc need to be identical in caliber, and that's simply not the case. It also doesn't take into account time of possession or # of offensive possessions. QBR fluctuates too drastically if you put these QB's on other teams, and therefore it's rather useless to use in an analysis on win variation. And you can't use Carson's QBR from when he was with the Raiders and claim it'll be the same here and result in only 2 extra wins.

Excellent post Darkside , 32 different set's of circumstances for 32 different QB's . Coaching Staffs , supporting cast of players , it's all relevant .

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I just think that the "won it all" metric is a little too limiting. There's only one team that can win the Super Bowl every year, does that mean that in 2013 Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady were all abject failures? Of course that's not the case.

But I think we can say that Rodgers and Brees have managed to excel as quarterbacks despite having their offensive lines collapse around them or not be that good to begin with.

I can't find it right now, but I know I saw a headline somewhere that was "The Kansas City Chiefs are Bound For Disappointment" and the argument was that left tackles only need to be "good enough" for their quarterbacks to succeed.

The reality is that Peyton Manning might have won the Super Bowl if his defensive back not mysteriously failed to drop back in overtime in Denver. Did he not go to the Super Bowl because he isn't good enough? That's nonsense.

EDIT: What I said on a different thread was that for a team to become an elite team, they need two of an elite quarterback, an elite pass rusher, or an elite cornerback. I think that the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints have shown that you can be a very good team with only one of those components, but it's much harder.

EDIT: Here's the article that I was talking about. It's E$PN In$ider, so you may not be able to see all of it: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...ansas-city-chiefs-regret-drafting-eric-fisher

I think you hit the nail on the head.

Your offensive line has to be "good enough".

Thus you cannot just roll anyone out there and expect the QB to make that person go away.

Could Peyton Manning win with lets say ?

LT: D'Anthony Batiste
LG: Chris Dishman
OC: Alex Stepanovich
RG: Rich Ohrnberger
RT: D.J. Young

I don't think any QB is winning with that.

BTW - I totally buy into the elite QB, elite DB*, elite pass rusher idea.

If you look at all the great QB's, when they one they had an edge. Like a gunfighter who always has his back to the sun

Manning had that ridiculous pass rush of Freeney and Mathis to help hold onto the lead when he got it.

Brady had an incredible defense when he won his Superbowls.

Rogers had the still PEDing Clay Matthews and the still young Charles Woodson on his win.

The last QB that I feel really won it all was Drew Brees, but even that SB win was massaged by a on-side kick, and a very poor throw by Peyton Manning.

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That all being said, and debated to a good point of agreement, this article is post for the reason of asking what Carson Palmer is going to do for the Cardinals.


Tough to say in my opinion. The offensive line for the Cardinals has improved but to the point where it is "good enough" ?

To be honest I think the Cardinals are close, real close to having that happen. I cannot force myself into forgetting how bad Daryn Colledge is and how much Lyle Sendlein is overrated. Until there is just one weak link on this offensive line then I don't think it is "good enough" to protect even the most wise, and decisive QB. DT's just blow up the middle of our line habitually.

Where I do think the Caridnals are "good enough" is at tackle. I believe in Bobby Massie at RT. I think a year of work with an NFL team is going to make him stronger, quicker, and a better technician. He was pretty good last year for a raw rookie who was a little too weak, slow, and raw for the NFL. But, you know what ? What I really like about Massie is that he got beaten to death, and embarrassed for a 1/2 a season, and then instead of pouting and quitting, he "bucked up" and worked his butt off in the 2nd half of his rookie season to improve, and improve and improve. While most rookies were hitting a wall, our rookie RT was climbing over it.

At left tackle, I truly believe that either Levi Brown will come back and show us that he is a pros-pro and be that guy we saw at the end of 2011, or at worst Nate Potter goes back in at LT. Neither are great, and dare I say neither are good.......but "good enough" I think Potter showed he can be "good enough" at worst for the Cardinals.

Thus while I do not think Carson Palmer is elite. He can be effective enough, if the line holds up with the receivers he has to throw to here in the desert.

We definitely have the DB we need in Peterson.

Pass rusher.....work in progress to say the least.


Good stuff guys.

 

[kerouac9]

Interesting article but poor argument. For their extrapolations to be accurate, all offensive lines, RB's, etc need to be identical in caliber, and that's simply not the case. It also doesn't take into account time of possession or # of offensive possessions. QBR fluctuates too drastically if you put these QB's on other teams, and therefore it's rather useless to use in an analysis on win variation. And you can't use Carson's QBR from when he was with the Raiders and claim it'll be the same here and result in only 2 extra wins.

I think the idea is that stuff gets washed out by the sheer amount of data put into the hopper. Yes, Drew Brees playing with Darren Sproles is in there, but so is Ryan Lindley playing with LaRod Stephens-Howling. The entire idea of an average is that you take the very best and very worst and everything else in the middle and stir them together to build a baseline.

What I like about QBR is that it uses thousands if not hundreds of thousands of data points--every QB drop back from 2008 to the present.

If you read Sando's article, I think his POV is that we might consider Palmer's 2012 performance with the Raiders as the floor for his ability and that fans could reasonably expect for him to return to Pro Bowl form and outperform that expectation.