Real GM: '09 Mock Draft

[mojorizen7]

http://www.realgm.com/src_feature/1524/20090602/2009_nba_mock_draft_version_70_(post_measurements)/
By Christopher Reina

Other than Tyler Hansbrough being taller than expected, the biggest surprise of the measurements might have been Blake Griffin's mediocre wingspan. The 2009 number one overall pick certainly has enough skill and athleticism to compensate for that obviously.

Jrue Holiday's stock has improved over the past week or two, so we leave him in the fourth slot where we first slotted him on the night of the lottery as soon as Sacramento fell backwards. He looks like a top-9 lock with the Raptors being his basement, but he still hasn't hired an agent. It is a good strategy for someone with his standing, as it creates a situation where a soft guarantee becomes more likely. For domestic players, it is really the closest thing to leverage that the foreign players like Ricky Rubio can use.

Which leads us to Rubio and the fact that he remains in the second overall slot. I expect Memphis to find a creative solution where they use his value to trade down, with Sacramento and Minnesota being the teams in the most uncomplicated position to get a deal done.

We have also seen more executives publicly calling this draft better than it was initially advertised. It seems to be as good in overall depth as 2008 and probably better than 2007, though clearly it is positionally skewed towards point guards/combo guards. It has also benefited from some 'will they declare' bubble players like Holiday, Austin Daye, Rubio and Evans staying in. Willie Warren is the only significant player of note who decided not to enter who could have become a lottery pick.

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1. Blake Griffin
Power Forward. Oklahoma

The Clippers wasted no time in declaring Griffin their guy and there won't be too many sleepless nights for Mike Dunleavy leading up to June 25th.
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2. Ricky Rubio
Point Guard. DKV Joventut

Combining backcourt depth and how serious they seem to be taking the threats coming out of Rubio's camp that he will remain in Spain if the situation doesn't suit his wishes, the Grizzlies fully appear to be considering alternatives. Rubio is good enough in comparison to Thabeet to call the bluff or even wait him out and risk getting nothing in return, but they should be able to get a deal done to trade down and pick up additional compensation.
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3. Hasheem Thabeet
Center. Connecticut

James Harden is definitely in play for the Thunder, who surely realize the need to have multiple scorers who can work off the dribble in the playoffs. This will be Sam Presti's final chance to have a high draft pick, so selecting an off guard of Harden's caliber here would make sense because defensive bigs are usually easier to find later in the draft or via trade/free agency.
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4. Jrue Holiday
Combo Guard. UCLA

Straight copy and paste from what I wrote right after the lottery: If they stay put, Holiday would present the best value for what they need. He was essentially in hiding during his one season at UCLA because he wasn't able to play his natural position of point guard. He has every skill you need from a point guard and high enough of a ceiling to be picked this high. He has been working out impressively, a trend that will continue over the next month.
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5. Jordan Hill
Power Forward. Arizona

Hill is ready to contribute immediately to a Wizards team that is still clutching to the idea that they can contend if they get healthy. A starting five of Arenas, Butler, Jamison, Hill and Haywood with McGee, Blatche and Young coming off the bench is surely a good enough blend to at least get back into the playoffs.
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6. James Harden
Shooting Guard. Arizona State

The best situation for Harden would be OKC, where he could be a secondary scorer and get team's second best wing defender, but he would be a nice fit in Minnesota where he can offset the interior scoring of Jefferson and Love.
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7. Tyreke Evans
Combo Guard. Memphis

Evans is garnering serious attention from teams picking ahead of Golden State, but ultimately there will likely be too many question marks and he'll fall here, where he was almost born for Nellie's system.
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8. Stephen Curry
Combo Guard. Davidson

I still believe Jeff Teague is the better option than Curry (better athlete, better point guard, better defender, 44.7% 3-point shooter), but this marriage looks like an inevitability. This is a risky strategy because Curry is only worth this high of a pick if the Knicks get LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. World class shooters like Curry need space and the only way that happens is if one of those two players ends up in New York.
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9. Brandon Jennings
Point Guard. Roma

The player Toronto selects here could tip their hand on whether Bosh is staying or going by 2010. Jennings represents Bosh going, while someone like Terrence Williams means the Raptors will do whatever they can to keep him. In terms of upside at this slot, Earl Clark is the only player that probably has more of it.
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10. Jonny Flynn
Point Guard. Syracuse

In my draft report on Flynn I said that he is the surest bet to have a very solid 10-year NBA career other than Blake Griffin and that is a similar sentiment held by many scouts. He is impossible not to like and who you want running your offense if you can't get a franchise player at the point guard.
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11. Earl Clark
Combo Forward. Louisville

It would be absolutely scary to see Clark end up on a team that already had an established young core like Portland or on a team with a superstar like LeBron or Wade because he does so many things well that we almost never see from players of his size. He is more likely to have a Lamar Odom career than fellow Rick Pitino grad Ron Mercer.
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12. Demar DeRozan
Guard/Forward. USC

If Terrence Williams is on the board, he would be Larry Brown's preferred choice, but DeRozan represents the upside that Charlotte needs as much as a token playoff appearance.
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13. DeJuan Blair
Power Forward. Pittsburgh

Blair has more skill in the low post than Mike Sweetney ever did, so those comparisons are a little unfair. Indiana is talking point guard, but Blair or even James Johnson make much more sense.
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14. Jeff Teague
Point Guard. Wake Forest

Teague might pull his name from the draft if he doesn't get an assurance that he will be in the lottery. This should be as low as he goes because Phoenix desperately needs a point guard of his caliber and would be a significantly better option for them than Lawson or Maynor.
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15. Austin Daye
Combo Forward. Gonzaga

Last summer Daye looked like a top-five pick to me, but his physical development was slower than anticipated. He will never be too athletic and definitely not too strong, but he will almost certainly come into his own two or three years after arriving in the NBA the way Bargnani did this season.
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16. Terrence Williams
Shooting Guard. Louisville

Williams wouldn't be able to replace Gordon's abilities as a scorer should he leave, but he is an excellent utility man who would pair very well with Rose.
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17. Ty Lawson
Point Guard. North Carolina

Lawson might not ever play an 82-game season, but the development of his perimeter shot to add to his quickness makes this his basement, at least in my eyes.
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MINNESOTA 18. B.J. Mullens
Center. Ohio State

With three first round picks, Minnesota can afford to take a chance on developing Mullens, who has enough athleticism and latent skill to eventually be a top-8 center.
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19. Eric Maynor
Point Guard. VCU

Eric Maynor is Acie Law the 5th, so I think Darren Collison would be the better option for Atlanta if they decide to look at a point guard replacement for Mike Bibby, but Maynor might represent better slot value.
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20. Omri Casspi
Small Forward. Maccabi Tel Aviv

Casspi has remarkable skill considering his length and would absolutely thrive in Utah's system. In terms of upside, Casspi is a much better option than Henderson or Hansbrough.
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21. James Johnson
Power Forward. Wake Forest

Johnson adds a lot of toughness that the Hornets were clearly missing this year. Like David West, Johnson is a power forward that enjoys the face-up game, but I think he will eventually be a near the bucket scrapper.
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22. Patrick Mills
Point Guard. St. Mary\'s

Mills isn't ready to be handed the keys to a team, but if he plays spot minutes for an established team like the Mavericks, he will be able to effectively utilize his quickness and perimeter shooting.
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SACRAMENTO 23. Gerald Henderson
Shooting Guard. Duke

If you're not going for a home run in the 20's, then Henderson represents great value because he is almost certain to develop into a serviceable NBA wing. His star potential is nil and it is even hard to envision him being a starter, but he could have a similar rookie season as Nicolas Batum had in Portland this year.
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24. DaJuan Summers
Small Forward. Georgetown

In terms of getting some toughness and someone who can mix it up inside, Summers represents that perfectly for the Blazers. His skill level is underrated and though he is a need based pick, this will be considered a steal for Portland.
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OKLAHOMA CITY 25. Nick Calathes
Point Guard. Florida

Calathes is a pure point guard and would complement Russell Westbrook whenever they share floor time in the backcourt.
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26. Chase Budinger
Small Forward. Arizona

Playing with a point guard like Rose, who collapses defenses with his penetration will be the best thing that could happen to Budinger's career.
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MEMPHIS 27. Gani Lawal
Forward/Center. Georgia Tech

Lawal is a role player waiting to happen, but he will happily be someone's lunch pale kind of big.
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MINNESOTA 28. Darren Collison
Point Guard. UCLA

Collison fits into the culture of Minnesota and will almost immediately contribute. His ceiling is a fringe starter, but his upside is higher than the common opinion.
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29. Wayne Ellington
Shooting Guard. North Carolina

Kobe Bryant's minutes will soon be decreasing and a pure shooting guard with athleticism and a perimeter game is something the Lakers don't have on their roster whatsoever.
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30. Marcus Thornton
Shooting Guard. LSU

The Cavaliers need some help up front, but they also need some dynamic shotmaking from the wing and Thornton would provide that. Similar to the way LeBron maximizes the value of players like Delonte West and Mo Williams, Thornton is good enough to take advantage of that type of situation.
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Welcome ....NBA fans to discuss.
Timberwolves with 3 first round picks,the pressures on not to screw that up i'd say.


I'm just happy that Chase "Bust"inger isn't listed as a possibility for my SUNS here....I've seen & heard to much of that. Just say no to Budinger.
Please Kerr: Don't Chase the Bud.

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

James Harden should be a productive starter in the league, maybe not an All-star, but certainly a good contributing starter. Wish the suns could get him, he's already a better defender than Richardson...

 

[binkar]

Teague reportedly is climbing on a lot of boards right now. There are reports that the Bucks are strongly considering him at 10 which surprised me. The kid is a terrific athlete and has the ability to be a great scorer in this league, but his challenge is showing that he can create for those around him and run an offense.