Record adjusted for close games...

[football karma]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/not-all-close-nfl-wins-were-actually-close/

for those that like probabilities, etc

suggests that the Seahawks probably aren't as good as their record, and the Rams aren't as bad as theirs

 

[TheCardFan]

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[TheCardFan]

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[TheCardFan]

Dang...the first game vs Lions with Brock dropping the INT.

I can't remember the game but the opposing QB dropped a dart into a WR on 3rd down to seal the win (we would have gotten the ball back down by <7 but our 2m offense is awful!).

Every team has these and you better be good enough to win them or you won't be in the playoffs.

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[football karma]

I can't remember the game but the opposing QB dropped a dart into a WR on 3rd down to seal the win (we would have gotten the ball back down by <7 but our 2m offense is awful!).

Ravens / Lamar Jackson

 

[Jetstream Green]

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[AZman5103]

Dang...the first game vs Lions with Brock dropping the INT.

I can't remember the game but the opposing QB dropped a dart into a WR on 3rd down to seal the win (we would have gotten the ball back down by <7 but our 2m offense is awful!).

Every team has these and you better be good enough to win them or you won't be in the playoffs.

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This to me was the most frustrating game of the season, and the biggest indicator that we are not a good team yet.

We got the ball UP by 3, with like 4 min left.

Elite teams run out the clock and never give the opposing team the ball back.

Good teams run the clock way down, force the use of timeouts, and give the ball back with under a minute left, bad field position, and no time outs...giving them a really good chance to win.

We lost that game by 10 points!!

 

[AZCrazy]

You are what your record says you are, but teams that are 'close' lose the tight games and teams that are 'there' win them.
How else do you account for a craptastic team like the 49ers last year 4-12 going to 13-3 in one offseason? They didn't add THAT much.
Just enough to get over the fulcrum. We're right there in most of our games, a one possession outcome.

 

[Solar7]

Let me preface this with: This team is better than 2018, but (hi DVontel) in 2018, we were 10 points away from being a 7 win team or so, as bad as we were.

Plenty of woulda-coulda-shouldas. A lot of these losses this year came with the ball in our hands with an opportunity to win, and we couldn't make it happen in the clutch.

 

[football karma]

in reality, and the posted article never says this:

while the Cards could have gone 9-7, they also could have gone 3-13 --- and if the "coin flip" games were split 50 / 50 -- it adds one win to the record for 6-9-1

pretty much where they are

 

[DVontel]

Let me preface this with: This team is better than 2018, but (hi DVontel) in 2018, we were 10 points away from being a 7 win team or so, as bad as we were.

Plenty of woulda-coulda-shouldas. A lot of these losses this year came with the ball in our hands with an opportunity to win, and we couldn't make it happen in the clutch.

I remember the argument we had about you saying Kirk Cousins replacing Bradford/Rosen would’ve improved our win total in a hypothetical situation. Still funny tbh.

 

[kerouac9]

What I don't like about this model is that Burke's Win Probability Metric is based — I think — on the betting line at kickoff. You have to start somewhere — the game is only technically 50/50 at kickoff when you're dealing with the Rams and Cards. IMO, the one-score metric is just fine for me.

 

[AZCrazy]

Let me preface this with: This team is better than 2018, but (hi DVontel) in 2018, we were 10 points away from being a 7 win team or so, as bad as we were.

Plenty of woulda-coulda-shouldas. A lot of these losses this year came with the ball in our hands with an opportunity to win, and we couldn't make it happen in the clutch.

Usually our offense left the field with a lead or tie, that the D couldn't hold in the last drive. A few key additions to the D should make us 8-8 all by itself.
Whether we grow beyond that is up to adding more talent all over.

 

[cardpa]

The bottom line is the good teams overcome bad bounces, or create one themselves, the bad teams don't. All this coin flip crap is just that crap. Every team makes a dozen or more mistakes during a game. Good teams make them up, bad teams don't. I doubt most games are decided by one play. You can look at any game and point out multiple plays where if a WR hadn't dropped a pass right in his hands, or a lineman didn't blow an assignment or a DB taking the wrong coverage or a QB missing a wide open receiver, or a RB missing a blitz pickup and on and on and on. The good teams execute more plays correctly and take advantage of other teams mistakes than bad teams do. That is where games are won and loss.

 

[football karma]

The bottom line is the good teams overcome bad bounces, or create one themselves, the bad teams don't.

this is a tautology

i.e. the Seahawks are a good team because they went 5-1 in coin flip games, while the Rams arent a good team because they went 0-4 in those games.

the Falcons and Dolphins were 3-0 and 3-1 in the coin flip games. Not sure if they are good teams or not

 

[Solar7]

I remember the argument we had about you saying Kirk Cousins replacing Bradford/Rosen would’ve improved our win total in a hypothetical situation. Still funny tbh.

I still stand by it, haha. That was a rough trio.

 

[cardpa]

this is a tautology

i.e. the Seahawks are a good team because they went 5-1 in coin flip games, while the Rams arent a good team because they went 0-4 in those games.

the Falcons and Dolphins were 3-0 and 3-1 in the coin flip games. Not sure if they are good teams or not

What's your point, tautologies are used in the English language all the time. (Ex: As an "added bonus" or "new innovation")

 

[ajcardfan]

What's your point, tautologies are used in the English language all the time. (Ex: As an "added bonus" or "new innovation")

A tautology is also a form of logic in which a statement is made in such a way that is by necessity true due to how it is phrased. He promptly gave you data which showed your logic to be flawed.

 

[kerouac9]

What's your point, tautologies are used in the English language all the time. (Ex: As an "added bonus" or "new innovation")

Because there's no logical foundation to it. Good teams don't win more 50/50 games than bad teams do. That's why they're 50/50. The only coach who has been meaningfully better in one-score games with any sample size is Bruce Arians, and this season he was 3-6 in one-score games.

Good teams blow out weaker opponnents, and bad teams get dominated by good teams (which is what happened to us last year and, largely, this one). The best argument that the 2019 Cards are NOT Actually Good is that we had 1 win by 7+ points. Everything else were squeakers against teams that fired their coach (and a tie). Cool.

This is why pythagorean winning percentage is a more reliable indicator of performance the next season than straight wins.

You bring up this Zombie Idea every offseason, it gets promptly disproven, and then you slink back into the forest, only to come out again a year later and say "Actually, Good Teams Win More Close Games."

 

[Son of RedRage]

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If the LA Chargers had scored 8 more points in each of their games, they'd be 14-2.

 

[cardpa]

Because there's no logical foundation to it. Good teams don't win more 50/50 games than bad teams do. That's why they're 50/50. The only coach who has been meaningfully better in one-score games with any sample size is Bruce Arians, and this season he was 3-6 in one-score games.

Good teams blow out weaker opponnents, and bad teams get dominated by good teams (which is what happened to us last year and, largely, this one). The best argument that the 2019 Cards are NOT Actually Good is that we had 1 win by 7+ points. Everything else were squeakers against teams that fired their coach (and a tie). Cool.

This is why pythagorean winning percentage is a more reliable indicator of performance the next season than straight wins.

You bring up this Zombie Idea every offseason, it gets promptly disproven, and then you slink back into the forest, only to come out again a year later and say "Actually, Good Teams Win More Close Games."

K9, you amaze me. Do you get some perverse pleasure out of demeaning people or is it necessary to make you feel superior? You make accusations without proof. You say I bring this up every off season yet provide no proof. Please go back and find these repeated posts by me that make the same statement over and over and don't forget the posts that dis-prove me. Now since I have been on this board for more than ten years you need to go back quite a ways. I 'll wait.

 

[Delmar M Lewis]

Couldn't strength of schedule play a role to I really dont much attention to anyone else's but I wonder what the niners and sea chicks strength of schedule were

 

[swagron]

If the LA Chargers had scored 8 more points in each of their games, they'd be 14-2.

This is the dumbest article/thread I’ve seen in a long time.