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Page 2's National League playoff preview
Special to Page 2
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Updated: October 2, 2007, 6:55 PM ET
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Thinking Fan's Approach
Lou Piniella is the bigger name with the fiery disposition, but his counterpart, Bob Melvin, might be the better strategist.
Much has been written about the Diamondbacks' secret to success this season. Arizona finished with the NL's best record at 90-72. Given that the team scored just 712 runs, while allowing 732, you might have expected the D-backs to finish with a far inferior record, even one below .500. The best mainstream take that I've seen on that divergence was Dan Rosenheck's recent column in the New York Times.
In the article, Rosenheck argues that the D-backs' success stems from two main factors: good luck and intelligent bullpen usage. Manager Bob Melvin's ability to use his best relievers (closer Jose Valverde and set-up men Tony Pena and Brandon Lyon) in high-leverage situations and his worst relievers (Brandon Medders, Dustin Nippert and Edgar Gonzalez) in lower-leverage situations has enabled the team to win a lot of close games. Even if the D-backs hadn't gone from a sub-.500 season to the best record in the league, Melvin would still be a shoo-in for manager of the year on his bullpen managing alone.
Nonthinking Fan's Approach
"Wait, doesn't the Cubs' bullpen stink?"
They blew a lot of leads this season, but that was months ago. In fact, Chicago's bullpen is vastly improved from last year. Along with an excellent starting rotation, it combines to give the Cubs the fourth-best team ERA in baseball. Carlos Marmol has lit up the league in his first full season, with a 1.43 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings. Bob Howry and Michael Wuertz have provided solid support in the set-up role. Ryan Dempster has been just so-so.
But you can compare this bullpen to the Tigers' 2006 version, in which Marmol plays the Joel Zumaya role of shutting teams down in the seventh and eighth, Howry and Wuertz are the Fernando Rodney and Jamie Walker of the group, and Dempster is Todd Jones -- not great, but good enough to get three outs before the other team scores two or three runs. Forget the image of windblown fly balls whooshing out of Wrigley. The 2007 Cubs are built on pitching.
Random Facts
The Cubs may be the most righty-centric hitting team in the playoffs. Their top four hitters (by OPS) with more than 400 plate appearances this season are Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Mark DeRosa -- all righties.
Who's the best Diamondbacks hitter? Why, it's pitcher Micah Owings, of course.
The best Diamondbacks hitter this season, by a wide margin, has been their No. 4 starter, Micah Owings (.333 AVG/.349 OBP/.683 SLG, 4 HR, 15 RBI in 60 ABs).
What Page 2 Wants to Happen
Carlos Zambrano gets shelled, then throws a trademark hissy fit in the dugout. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly and Rich Hill quietly pitch well, continuing their season-long record of outperforming the Cubs' presumed ace. Kerry Wood pitches in at least one key spot. Brandon Webb sets a playoff record for most ground ball outs induced in a game. Owings comes off the bench for the Snakes and goes Ankiel, blasting a dramatic pinch-hit homer.
Series Prediction
Both teams rely on pitching to win games, meaning we could see some low-scoring baseball throughout the series. No disrespect intended toward Sweet Lou, but Melvin's excellent track record of staff management this season points to Arizona's having an edge in close games. The Cubs beat up on Arizona's lone lefty starter, Doug Davis, but go quietly against the D-backs' righties. Diamondbacks in 4.
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By Jonah KeriSpecial to Page 2
(Archive | Contact)
Updated: October 2, 2007, 6:55 PM ET
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Thinking Fan's Approach
You must be registered for see images attach
Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesLou Piniella is the bigger name with the fiery disposition, but his counterpart, Bob Melvin, might be the better strategist.
Much has been written about the Diamondbacks' secret to success this season. Arizona finished with the NL's best record at 90-72. Given that the team scored just 712 runs, while allowing 732, you might have expected the D-backs to finish with a far inferior record, even one below .500. The best mainstream take that I've seen on that divergence was Dan Rosenheck's recent column in the New York Times.
In the article, Rosenheck argues that the D-backs' success stems from two main factors: good luck and intelligent bullpen usage. Manager Bob Melvin's ability to use his best relievers (closer Jose Valverde and set-up men Tony Pena and Brandon Lyon) in high-leverage situations and his worst relievers (Brandon Medders, Dustin Nippert and Edgar Gonzalez) in lower-leverage situations has enabled the team to win a lot of close games. Even if the D-backs hadn't gone from a sub-.500 season to the best record in the league, Melvin would still be a shoo-in for manager of the year on his bullpen managing alone.
Nonthinking Fan's Approach
"Wait, doesn't the Cubs' bullpen stink?"
They blew a lot of leads this season, but that was months ago. In fact, Chicago's bullpen is vastly improved from last year. Along with an excellent starting rotation, it combines to give the Cubs the fourth-best team ERA in baseball. Carlos Marmol has lit up the league in his first full season, with a 1.43 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings. Bob Howry and Michael Wuertz have provided solid support in the set-up role. Ryan Dempster has been just so-so.
But you can compare this bullpen to the Tigers' 2006 version, in which Marmol plays the Joel Zumaya role of shutting teams down in the seventh and eighth, Howry and Wuertz are the Fernando Rodney and Jamie Walker of the group, and Dempster is Todd Jones -- not great, but good enough to get three outs before the other team scores two or three runs. Forget the image of windblown fly balls whooshing out of Wrigley. The 2007 Cubs are built on pitching.
Random Facts
The Cubs may be the most righty-centric hitting team in the playoffs. Their top four hitters (by OPS) with more than 400 plate appearances this season are Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Mark DeRosa -- all righties.
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Mark J. Rebilas/US PresswireWho's the best Diamondbacks hitter? Why, it's pitcher Micah Owings, of course.
The best Diamondbacks hitter this season, by a wide margin, has been their No. 4 starter, Micah Owings (.333 AVG/.349 OBP/.683 SLG, 4 HR, 15 RBI in 60 ABs).
What Page 2 Wants to Happen
Carlos Zambrano gets shelled, then throws a trademark hissy fit in the dugout. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly and Rich Hill quietly pitch well, continuing their season-long record of outperforming the Cubs' presumed ace. Kerry Wood pitches in at least one key spot. Brandon Webb sets a playoff record for most ground ball outs induced in a game. Owings comes off the bench for the Snakes and goes Ankiel, blasting a dramatic pinch-hit homer.
Series Prediction
Both teams rely on pitching to win games, meaning we could see some low-scoring baseball throughout the series. No disrespect intended toward Sweet Lou, but Melvin's excellent track record of staff management this season points to Arizona's having an edge in close games. The Cubs beat up on Arizona's lone lefty starter, Doug Davis, but go quietly against the D-backs' righties. Diamondbacks in 4.
