Running back formula to remember for the combine

[ActingWild]

Bill Barnwell had an excellent article last year and a new formula for calculating 40 times in relation to NFL success.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3337822

The basic equation is this:

(weight * 200)/ (40 time to the 4th power)

His formula last year had these results:

Name 40 time Wt Rating Round Pick NFL Team
Darren McFadden 4.33 210 119.48 1 4 Oakland
Jonathan Stewart 4.48 235 116.68 1 13 Carolina
Felix Jones 4.47 200 100.19 1 22 Dallas
Rashard Mendenhall 4.45 210 107.10 1 23 Pittsburgh
Chris Johnson 4.24 195 120.67 1 24 Tennessee
Matt Forte 4.46 222 112.21 2 44 Chicago
Ray Rice 4.44 199 102.41 2 55 Baltimore
Kevin Smith 4.43 217 112.69 3 64 Detroit
Jacob Hester 4.60 230 102.74 3 69 San Diego
Jamaal Charles 4.38 200 108.68 3 73 Kansas City
Steve Slaton 4.45 197 100.47 3 89 Houston
Jalen Parmele 4.47 222 111.21 6 176 Miami


He also adds that the next important measurement for RB at the combine is vertical...so, watch for guys who score well in this matrix with strong verts and we may have our best shot at a stud in the backfield.

 

[Goldfield]

I would like to see where Hightower rates

 

[ActingWild]

Hightower's score is 104.54 (226lb and 4.56 forty)

In this years class we unofficially have:

Moreno - 103.27
McCoy - 103.33
Wells - 112.56

...but these times could change as their 40's are all unofficial (I pulled the weight and times from nfldraftscout.com).

 

[joeshmo]

Hightower's score is 104.54 (226lb and 4.56 forty)

In this years class we unofficially have:

Moreno - 103.27
McCoy - 103.33
Wells - 112.56

...but these times could change as their 40's are all unofficial (I pulled the weight and times from nfldraftscout.com).

Those guys have only weighed in and havent run yet.

Also that forumla doesnt really show anything IMO. I mean McCfadden had the highest score yet had a horrible year and doesnt look like he will ever amont to anything. Slaton had one of the lower scores out of that group yet had one of the better seasons. Color me confused as to how this guy came up with what he did and how last years draft class proves his point.

Its interesting though. I like this sort of analysis and coorelations. Just dont think this one has any proof to back it up yet.

 

[JeffGollin]

Here's my formula:

Can he run the freakin' ball?

If you feel a prospect can produce within your offensive system & philosophy better than anyone else available, then he's your guy.

Attempting to compare a big thumper like Brandon Jacobs to a smallwe scatback like Aaron Sproles or Terry Metcalf or a mid-sized guys who can sniff out holes like Hightower or Marcus Allen involves more than numeric ratios. How do you quantify things like "field vision", "blitz pickup skill", "making the first tackler miss" or "ability to set up blockers?"

Interesting how SD rode the back of a big RB in LaDainian Tomlinson and then turned around and hitched their wagon to the smaller, shiftier Sproles.

There are no rules. There is no magical formula. What will work in Year Three may be different than what worked for you in Year One.

 

[Skkorpion]

Here's my formula:

Can he run the freakin' ball?

If you feel a prospect can produce within your offensive system & philosophy better than anyone else available, then he's your guy.

Attempting to compare a big thumper like Brandon Jacobs to a smallwe scatback like Aaron Sproles or Terry Metcalf or a mid-sized guys who can sniff out holes like Hightower or Marcus Allen involves more than numeric ratios. How do you quantify things like "field vision", "blitz pickup skill", "making the first tackler miss" or "ability to set up blockers?"

Interesting how SD rode the back of a big RB in LaDainian Tomlinson and then turned around and hitched their wagon to the smaller, shiftier Sproles.

There are no rules. There is no magical formula. What will work in Year Three may be different than what worked for you in Year One.

Truth.

 

[anks106]

Those guys have only weighed in and havent run yet.

Also that forumla doesnt really show anything IMO. I mean McCfadden had the highest score yet had a horrible year and doesnt look like he will ever amont to anything. Slaton had one of the lower scores out of that group yet had one of the better seasons. Color me confused as to how this guy came up with what he did and how last years draft class proves his point.

Its interesting though. I like this sort of analysis and coorelations. Just dont think this one has any proof to back it up yet.

It looks like this formula got torn apart by last years draft, it was put together before that. Even so, the correlation wasn't great, but they were just pointing out with the data at the time (did not have the 2008 season) this correlated to running back success better than any other hard number they could find at the combine. Who knows, maybe it will prove to be a better long term indicator?

 

[lobo]

Truth.

After drinking my hot ovaltine and anjoying a bowl of fruit loops I turned on the combine and noted that Mangenious was quoted as saying how much he likes Dedric Ward...of course one need not be Sherlock Holmes to figure out how good he might be. In my book as Jeff said (sic)...He can freakin' run. He would be a major plus if we could sign him....