Sando | Simulation predicts the 2010 NFC West Champion

[Redheart]

In his life beyond Warner view and using 10,000 simulation runs...

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest

Spoiler: the winner wears red...

 

[Tyler]

In his life beyond Warner view and using 10,000 simulation runs...

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest

Spoiler: the winner wears red...

Its amazing what someone that knows the division says.

 

[Big Deal]

How can the simulator think that Alex Smith is superior to Leinart?

 

[Redheart]

I hate the 'niners...

 

[ASUCHRIS]

This was the quote that really had me queasy:

"As a Ravens fan, I remember the 2007 game when Warner took over for Leinart at Baltimore," Oh said. "It was obvious that not only was Warner vastly superior to Leinart skill-wise, he was a leader that the rest of the team respected."

Warner completed 15 of 20 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns as the Cardinals turned a 23-6 deficit into a 23-23 tie before Baltimore finally prevailed on a field goal. Leinart finished the game 9-of-20 passing for 53 yards."

I really, really hope that Matty is ready, otherwise this could be a painful season.

 

[SeattleCard]

Yes, that had me queasy too. I remember that game. When Kurt entered the game for Matt, what transpired was mind blowing. The team looked brand new and different with Kurt. I still think we should bring Bulger in.

 

[Duckjake]

Yes, that had me queasy too. I remember that game. When Kurt entered the game for Matt, what transpired was mind blowing. The team looked brand new and different with Kurt. I still think we should bring Bulger in.

Don't get too far ahead of yourself. I remember Green benching Warner in 2006 after Kurt had thrown 5 interceptions and fumbled away a win in the games against St.Louis and Atlanta.

Leinart starts the next week at KC and the Cards are up 14-0 behind two Leinart TD passes before the D decides to take the day off. The next week Leinart QBs the Cards to a 23-3 lead against the Bears and well we all know the rest of the story.

How different would things have been if the team hadn't folded up those three games in '06. Rams, KC and Bears. Where's Harry Turtledove when we need him?

 

[CardLogic]

What this little execise fails to account for; and many pundits will make the same mistake between now and the beginning of the season; is that 2010 Leinart will be better than 2007 Leinart.

Cripes, even 2010 Alex Smith figures to be better than the 2007 model Smith...

If Whisenhunt thought for a moment that Leinart has not progressed since early 2007, when Whisenhunt became head coach of the Cardinals, Leinart would no longer be a Cardinal.

 

[8ndkorner]

This was the quote that really had me queasy:

"As a Ravens fan, I remember the 2007 game when Warner took over for Leinart at Baltimore," Oh said. "It was obvious that not only was Warner vastly superior to Leinart skill-wise, he was a leader that the rest of the team respected."

Warner completed 15 of 20 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns as the Cardinals turned a 23-6 deficit into a 23-23 tie before Baltimore finally prevailed on a field goal. Leinart finished the game 9-of-20 passing for 53 yards."

I really, really hope that Matty is ready, otherwise this could be a painful season.

The run game is ready. Whiz knows what he's doing. Matt is the QB but Whiz wants to run. That was difficult while KW was lighting it up. Matt has this season to show him something other than what he's shown since being in AZ.If not see you later.

 

[TJ]

How can the simulator think that Alex Smith is superior to Leinart?

Because Smith is the next Peyton Manning

Didnt you hear??

 

[Pariah]

Leinart starts the next week at KC and the Cards are up 14-0 behind two Leinart TD passes ...

If I recall correctly, it should have been 21-0 and 3 TDs from Leinart, but Johnson dropped a well-thrown, uncontested ball.

 

[TJ]

Don't get too far ahead of yourself. I remember Green benching Warner in 2006 after Kurt had thrown 5 interceptions and fumbled away a win in the games against St.Louis and Atlanta.

Leinart starts the next week at KC and the Cards are up 14-0 behind two Leinart TD passes before the D decides to take the day off. The next week Leinart QBs the Cards to a 23-3 lead against the Bears and well we all know the rest of the story.

How different would things have been if the team hadn't folded up those three games in '06. Rams, KC and Bears. Where's Harry Turtledove when we need him?

I agree. Leinart's rookie season will always be defined by the MNF game. He did everything he could against the leagues best defense to win that game. It was the classic meltdown from everyone including the lame duck coach that not only cost them the game but the rest of the season. After that, the entire team mentally checked out, which included a loss to the inept Raiders.

 

[Shane]

Title should be changed. Unless I lost my reading skills Sando doesn't predict anything. A computer does it all. Giving the Niners the edge by over 70%.

 

[AZ Native]

That's why we play the game.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

MEh...Simulations mean jack...its like running madden... Its decided on the feild not in fantasy land...

 

[Redheart]

...How different would things have been if the team hadn't folded up those three games in '06. Rams, KC and Bears. Where's Harry Turtledove when we need him?

5:5 for alternative history reference.

 

[Redheart]

If I recall correctly, it should have been 21-0 and 3 TDs from Leinart, but "Skillet-hands" Johnson dropped a well-thrown, uncontested ball.

Fixed that for you. Breaston was such and upgrade for BJ, big enough to allow the trade of Q and securing the #2 job for himself; payday to follow...

 

[Redheart]

Title should be changed. Unless I lost my reading skills Sando doesn't predict anything. A computer does it all. Giving the Niners the edge by over 70%.

Heh! Title-police. Go figure.

 

[DoTheDew]

How can the simulator think that Alex Smith is superior to Leinart?

It doesn't specifically say that the simulator rates Smith better than Leinart. It just says that without Warner, the Niners as a team are expected to be better than us.

If Warner is rated a 95 and Leinart a 65, but Smith a 64 the simulator still might pick the 49ers because their defense is almost certainly rated much higher than ours right now due to the number of unknowns and youngins we will be starting there.

That's the main problem with these simulators. They simply can't accurately predict young players and unknown players. The article even states that the simulation didn't include rookies, which clearly distorts our defensive ratings since Williams and Washington will almost certainly see substantial time, and others might too. Same could be said for the 49ers but we'll see who's rookies contribute more and IMO that will ultimately determine which team wins this division.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

The run game is ready. Whiz knows what he's doing. Matt is the QB but Whiz wants to run. That was difficult while KW was lighting it up. Matt has this season to show him something other than what he's shown since being in AZ.If not see you later.

True...that team didn't have the line or RB to make it work. We'll definitely need to use the run to set up the pass, and hopefully Matt's play action and boot leg skills will be a nice fit.

 

[Shane]

Heh! Title-police. Go figure.

Well your title does say Sando picks NFC west champ right?

 

[WarnerHOF]

Who cares? The real division title is won on the playing field.

 

[Angel]

In his life beyond Warner view and using 10,000 simulation runs...

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest

Spoiler: the winner wears red...

Off topic and way to nit-picky....that is not red, that is a sickly orangy imitation of red....

We all know what predictions are like, even those by computer.

You may now return to your program of Title bashing.

 

[Redheart]

Well your title does say Sando picks NFC west champ right?

Sando did pick the analysis and ask them to run it; Sando did put it forth in his column; Sando, in the article, goes to great length to show accuracy - past performance of the method...


...Title is not too bad, will you let me off with a warning?

 

[Shane]

...Title is not too bad, will you let me off with a warning?

Just this once.