Saturday Thoughts

[Treesquid PhD]

It's looking like if Thomas is there, the Cards take him. Otherwise, I'm guessing that all the trade offers they do get will be from teams "too far down". Trading down too far would be bad, so they reach and take L.Brown. LT problem solved.

That's my take.

Problem solved? how many times do the cardinals have to reach and fail before we all get that taking the second or their best position player in the top 10 is exactly the recipe that has produced bust after bust, why would it magically start now? Let me guess up coaching from Grimm? Just checking?

Just take the best player on your board, period.

 

[kerouac9]

One of my favorite things to do this time of the year is to play "where were we 3 months ago?" Willis was a late first rounder. But the guy has a great Senior Bowl, run well and he's a top 5 pick? Drafting an OT early makes sense because there are only 2 "blue chip" tackles. It makes more sense to wait to draft a LB based on where the talent in this draft is stacked.

Heck, three months ago when my Sporting News Draft Guide was published, Levi Brown was the 3rd best OT and there was only one first-round quality OT. Funny how different things look when you have to talk yourself into a prospect in a position of need.

 

[kerouac9]

Problem solved? how many times do the cardinals have to reach and fail before we all get that taking the second or their best position player in the top 10 is exactly the recipe that has produced bust after bust, why would it magically start now? Let me guess up coaching from Grimm? Just checking?

Just take the best player on your board, period.

Maybe, but the Bengals "reached" for Levi Jones in the draft, and he turned out to be one of the Top 5 players from that lottery. But he was the best player ranked on Cincy's board, and they took him.

On TSN's draft preview, the two positions that the Cards needed the most were OLT and OLB. After a month of free agency, we still have the same two major holes. No matter what Rod and Coach K say on Draft Day, we're drafting for need.

 

[CardinalChris]

Funny, I thought about Levi Jones when talking about Brown. I laughed when they took him at 10.....Oops. I guess I was the idiot, not the Bengals. EVERY team drafts for need. We just got away with it the past couple of years because we needed EVERYTHING. No pure form of BPA drafting exists today. It is drafting BPA within the boundaries of team needs.

Is anybody else worried about our depth at guard also? Elton Brown as our third G? Gandy was interesting because he adds depth and can play that swing position. and add a lot of depth.

As for TE, I would LOVE LOVE LOVE to see Spaeth there in the third. His blocking is a little better and teaming him with Pope would be a nice combo of skills.

Right now my dream draft would be Thomas (part of dreaming is the unlikely happens), Alexander, Spaeth. Three starters in three picks and two of them have some real star potential, the third is the lunch pail type we need at TE and lost when Wakefield left.

 

[Duckjake]

What he didn't want to do is sit around and just think about the draft, as most of the high draft prospects are doing.

Don't a lot of the high draft prospects drop out of school and enroll in one of the workout "gyms"? They spend all their time training for the combine and their pro days instead of training to be communications majors. It's my opinion that this type immersion training is why guys suddenly start posting eye popping numbers in workouts.

Pete Williams writes about the training facilities in his book "The Draft". You also hear prospects talk about them in interviews.

 

[AntSports Steve]

I'm guessing that E.Brown won't make the team.

But, at Guard, you could use your backup center (Johnson or Lechy whoever loses), Gorin or Ross. Ross would make a good guard.

While I'm guessing... If the Cards draft two OT, they cut Ross as his salary is way too high.

 

[Redsz]

But, at Guard, you could use your backup center (Johnson or Lechy whoever loses)

It's spelt 'Leckey'.

 

[artp]

Our lack of finding a good FA OT has limited our draft. We cannot go into 2007 hoping that a 2nd rd draft choice like T Ugoh (Ark) can be an effective starter. Few rookie OL are immediate contributors. Forget RB A Peterson. Forget LB P Willis. The Cardfinals have to get J Thomas or L Brown.

 

[Skkorpion]

EVERY team drafts for need. We just got away with it the past couple of years because we needed EVERYTHING. No pure form of BPA drafting exists today. It is drafting BPA within the boundaries of team needs.
QUOTE]

Exactly right. And we still need starters at four positions at least, so we still have a lot of bpa latitude.

 

[kerouac9]

Funny, I thought about Levi Jones when talking about Brown. I laughed when they took him at 10.....Oops. I guess I was the idiot, not the Bengals. EVERY team drafts for need. We just got away with it the past couple of years because we needed EVERYTHING. No pure form of BPA drafting exists today. It is drafting BPA within the boundaries of team needs.

This I don't agree with. The best example was the New Orleans Saints, who drafted Duce McAllister when they had Ricky Williams coming off a 1000 yard season and then Reggie Bush when they had McAllister. The Saints drafted a third first-round defensive end when they already had two first rounders that had panned out in Charles Grant and Darren Howard.

The Eagles are another team that does a great job of not having to draft for need. They drafted Broderick Bunkley and Winston Justice 1-2 last season, and I don't know if either of them played, much less started.

A lot of successful teams draft for need because they're at the end of the round when prospects start to bunch together or flatten out. But the teams that successfully draft well early are the ones that choose BPA, not drafting to fill the most gaping hole on the roster.

Most successful teams don't go into the draft with a gaping hole on the roster, but most successful teams aren't run by Rod Graves, either.

 

[BACH]

Heck, three months ago when my Sporting News Draft Guide was published, Levi Brown was the 3rd best OT and there was only one first-round quality OT. Funny how different things look when you have to talk yourself into a prospect in a position of need.

AND?

The whole one OT worth a 1st round selection went out the window, when OT after OT had great work-outs. You can't base your ranking on 3 month old data.

Based on last seasons Sporting News Draft Guide Mario Williams and Sims were rated in the 20's, Whitner in the 30's. Same issues also suggested that we should take Lendale White or Winston Justice.

 

[Zeno]

AND?

The whole one OT worth a 1st round selection went out the window, when OT after OT had great work-outs. You can't base your ranking on 3 month old data.

At the same time, a lot of these players haven't played 1 down of football since those initial rankings. Workouts sometimes effect draft status too much (both ways--positive & negative).

 

[Duckjake]

Same issues also suggested that we should take Lendale White or Winston Justice.

They weren't the only source saying the Cards should take Lendale White for similar reasons that people are saying they should take Thomas or Brown this year, Arizona didn't have a legitimate starting RB. As we all know getting James as a FA changed that situation.

EVERY team drafts for need. We just got away with it the past couple of years because we needed EVERYTHING. No pure form of BPA drafting exists today. It is drafting BPA within the boundaries of team needs.

The Cards didn't need another WR when they took Fitzgerald, like they did when they took Johnson and Boldin. The Fitzgerald selection was pure BPA or you could say best crony's son available. They also didn't need Leinart last year so it was the perfect time to select a QBOF as they didn't have to play him. You could even make the argument that they didn't "need" Rolle either.

At any rate the last 3 years are a vast improvement over the Cardinals old method of taking the worst player available that netted them Leonard Davis, Thomas Jones, Wendall Bryant, Bryant Johnson and Calvin Pace.

 

[Garthshort]

Question for Skorp

You said that the team needs starters at four positions. I can name OT and LB. Which are the other two?

 

[BACH]

At the same time, a lot of these players haven't played 1 down of football since those initial rankings. Workouts sometimes effect draft status too much (both ways--positive & negative).

True, but as long as it affects the draft board my point is valid. Per K9, we should sit back and say: "Levi Brown was only worth a pick in the last 1st round 3 months ago. Every onther team have moved him higher up the board, but we keeping him around #30"

It doesn't work that way! Work-outs have a huge influence on the draftboards, and those draftboards are the source of information on draft day and they decide how the draft unfold.

K9's is making the point that we shouldn't draft Brown in the top of the 1st round because he rated as a low 1st rounder 3 months ago. Using the same logic we should also pass on Staley if he there at #39, because he only carried a 3rd round grade 3 months ago.

 

[BACH]

They weren't the only source saying the Cards should take Lendale White for similar reasons that people are saying they should take Thomas or Brown this year, Arizona didn't have a legitimate starting RB. As we all know getting James as a FA changed that situation.

But Lendale White was still considered worthy of a top 10-15 selection 2 months before last year's draft.

 

[cardsfanmd]

You said that the team needs starters at four positions. I can name OT and LB. Which are the other two?

QB and WR

 

[BullheadCardFan]

You said that the team needs starters at four positions. I can name OT and LB. Which are the other two?

TE is one ... all we have is Pope .. and with a 2 TE set we need another starter ..

With our new FA signings CB and safety are debatable ... I would like to see a DE so he can challenge to start or be a situational pass rusher .. Berry is injury prone ..

 

[cardsfanmd]

Now that he has been brought up, Lendale White was a perfect example of drafting BPA. The Titans could have used help on the d-line, o-line, lb, or wr. They were set at RB.

The Ravens have been another good example of drafting BPA over the years, but I have a feeling that will change this year. They are hurting bad on the O-line. They also need help/depth at fb, wr and cb.

 

[joeshmo]

This talk about rankings from right after the college bowl games compared to know has me thinking about a recent article on the Cards main web site talking to the scouts about the combine and pro days.

It is a very good read and I suggest people read it. This part in particular really stood out to me.

http://www.azcardinals.com/news/detail.php?PRKey=1614

By the time these spring drills roll around, the Cardinals administration pretty much has an idea about everything on a particular athlete after a scouting year chalk full of regular-season, bowl and all-star games, videotape review, conversations with coaches, and the Combine. But maybe he didn't do the field exercises at the Combine, whether it was due to an injury or personal choice. Maybe he wasn't invited to the Combine at all. This is one more chance to make sure the team knows everything about the guy it wants.

"The hay is in the barn by this time of year," said scout Bill DeKraker, whose main responsibilities lie in the East region. "We've already watched at least five games on these players in the fall. We're just crossing the 'Ts' and dotting the 'Is' at this point, getting a good close-up of the guy and talking to him. I hate to coin a phrase that's used all the time, a cliché, but it's all a piece of the puzzle. I don't think, in my personal opinion, you go to a Pro Day and leave there without getting anything accomplished. It's a never-ending thirst for knowledge."

Most teams boards are pretty much set right after the combine, heck not much probably change from the point the bowl games ended up to the combine except for some minor tweeks here and there after "doting the i's and crossing the t's" at the combine. I think the only major changes will be at the bottom of teams boards when they get to see first hand some of the smaller schools they never paid as much attention to compared to the larger schools (of which they also talk about in the article).

And if a player moves up from 3 months ago compared to now I am highly suspicous of that player. What is he doing now that he wasnt doing while playing in college and why wasnt he doing it when he was playing. Same with players that drop fast over 3 months, was there something with his attitude after teams met with him, did his coach not talk highly of him, and so on.

As for Levi Browns ranking 3 months ago to today, I dont have those older magazines with those rankings so my question to those that do, were those rankings before or after Jake Long and Sam Baker decided not to declare? I am guessing that could be a reason for the different rankings from then to now.

 

[JeffGollin]

The danger in assuming that a couple of teams ahead of you wouldn't draft an OT if you traded down beneath them is that either of them could trade their pick to a team that was interested in an OT.

If we were to trade down 2 or 3 spots, we'd have to be happy with the 3+ players still on our short list (presumably Thomas, Brown, Willis or one of the three safeties). Otherwise we'd be taking a calculated gamble. (A gamble by definition carries with it the inherent possibility that we could lose our bet).

 

[kerouac9]

As for Levi Browns ranking 3 months ago to today, I dont have those older magazines with those rankings so my question to those that do, were those rankings before or after Jake Long and Sam Baker decided not to declare? I am guessing that could be a reason for the different rankings from then to now.

The Sporting News draft guide carries a copyright date of 2006, but that can't be right since it mentions the BCS Title game. But it has to have been finalized before the Senior Bowl, because Adam Carriker is rated as a 3rd round pick and as the 7th best DE (behind some guy named Ikaika Alama-Francis from Hawaii that I've never heard of).

As for the Tackles, the first line of the breakdown is:

This crop doesn't inspire confidence, but there are four prospects with first-round potential (Joe Thomas, Tony Ugoh, Levi Brown, and Ryan Harris), though only one of them produced on the field like a first-rounder.

I was wrong before; Brown is listed as a 2nd round prospect, Staley as a third. It's clearly written before Baker and Long decided to stay in school, though. It's interesting to see how many people are swayed by Combine performances and Pro Days, versus just watching the games. I hope that the AZCards' article is being honest and not just boilerplate stuff. The Cards did fall in love with Calvin Pace after his workout late in the process.

One guy whose name hasn't come up here is Rufus Alexander, the OLB from Oklahoma. The Huddle Report compares him to Jonathan Vilma, TSN compares him to Lance Briggs. Is there a reason that people are overlooking this guy?

 

[Garthshort]

Alexander

Is "rated" as a 2nd rounder, but is just 6+ ft. , and that might cause him to slide to the middle of the 2nd round. The Sporting News Mag has him rated the #2 OLB.

 

[CardinalChris]

This I don't agree with. The best example was the New Orleans Saints, who drafted Duce McAllister when they had Ricky Williams coming off a 1000 yard season and then Reggie Bush when they had McAllister. The Saints drafted a third first-round defensive end when they already had two first rounders that had panned out in Charles Grant and Darren Howard.

Wait one second. Williams was drafted in 1999 by Ditka, who was fired in 2000 and replaced by Haslett. The NEXT year after the new regime Duece was drafted and Rickey traded the following year. That sounds like a new staff unhappy with a previous coach's players who drafted him knowing they wanted to eventually replaced Williams. It's a need, but the public didn't perceive it because Williams was still on the roster. They knew something we did not. Happened to Travis Henry also. Will Smith and Grant were the same. Because until Smith was drafted, Grant was disappointing and Howard and the Saints had a rivalry over salary going. High draft picks do not mean high production. These examples are need based, but from the standpoint that the front office didn't sit and wait to replace an under producing player because he was a high pick. That's like not signing Okeafor because we had just picked Pace. It was still a need in their eyes despite the high pick previously.

The Eagles are another team that does a great job of not having to draft for need. They drafted Broderick Bunkley and Winston Justice 1-2 last season, and I don't know if either of them played, much less started.

Wait, Bunkley was most certainly a need. They finally unloaded Corey Simon and were left with slumping Dawrin walker (sacks had gone from 7 and 6 to 2 and 4 in the last couple of years). and unproven Mike Patterson. I'd say DT is a need when you have 1 unproven, 1 beginning to slide and one who is both sliding and about to leave. They just planned ahead of what we as observers saw coming.

A lot of successful teams draft for need because they're at the end of the round when prospects start to bunch together or flatten out. But the teams that successfully draft well early are the ones that choose BPA, not drafting to fill the most gaping hole on the roster.

Most successful teams don't go into the draft with a gaping hole on the roster, but most successful teams aren't run by Rod Graves, either.

If you assume Matt will be a great QB, but Quinn is highest rating on the board when we pick, we won't take him. It is the bpa within the confines of need. Now, it may not be your most glaring need, but you can take a prospect in the second or third highest need position if they are head and shoulders above those players available at your biggest need. The team you mentioned above did a great job of preparing for replacing a player they either did not want anymore or had not performed to that date. As you said though, they also did not go into most drafts with multiple starters needed. But those are the teams that draft the best. They are filling needs next year, not needs they have this year.

 

[Skkorpion]

You said that the team needs starters at four positions. I can name OT and LB. Which are the other two?

You would do that to me? I'm going to get nailed on this and I was saving it for an article, but here goes (actually, we need starters at 5 positions):

TE, DE, RB are the other three.

1. The only TE on the roster can't block and Whis needs a blocker.
2. Bert Berry is done, in my opinion. You can't count on a player with two consecutive season-ending injuries and is over 30. Antonio Smith is a career journeyman and Okeafor is average. Weakest position on the team, I think.
3. Edge. What can I say? We got ripped off. I wouldn't be surprised to see him benched by game 6, if we don't draft Peterson or some other guy in round 3 to start right away.