The Commish
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Young's upside sets him apart
By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
Matt Leinart did not participate in the workout portion of last month's combine and USC's pro day is not until Sunday. Still, I've seen enough over the course of the last three years to confidently say Leinart is the top quarterback prospect in the 2006 draft.
Far more difficult is deciding whether Texas' Vince Young or Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler should be the second quarterback to come off the board.
Young seemed to slip into hibernation following his extraordinary performance in the Longhorns' upset victory over the Trojans in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 4. His absence from the highlights created a vacuum and Cutler has benefited. During the 11-week stretch between the Rose Bowl and last week's pro day workout in Austin, Texas, it was easy to get caught up in the hype tornado surrounding Cutler. After all, the only new information regarding Young's draft stock was an embarrassing Wonderlic score (15 was his best of two attempts).
Meanwhile, Cutler clearly distinguished himself as the best quarterback prospect at the Senior Bowl. He had a solid all-around performance at the combine. He scored a 29 on the Wonderlic, ran the 40-yard dash in the high 4.7-second range, notched 23 reps on the 225-pound bench press and displayed the second-best arm strength of the participating quarterback prospects. The fact that he also wowed scouts with a strong passing performance in windy conditions at his Vanderbilt pro day on March 17 doesn't hurt, either.
With that being said, it's critical to remember that the draft process is a marathon, not a sprint. Over the course of the last week I have gone back and studied five game films on both Young and Cutler while also analyzing Cutler's combine workout compared to that of Young's pro day workout. Although the decision is admittedly still not an easy one, I can make a stronger case for drafting Young than I can for Cutler. Although his mechanics have been questioned, Young has come a long way as a passer.
Unlike Leinart, both Young and Cutler project as developmental prospects in the NFL. Cutler has more traditional qualities in terms of his throwing motion and the scheme in which he played at Vanderbilt. He also possesses the stronger arm. However, Cutler's mechanics and overall decision-making skills must be improved upon before he's ready to compete for a starting job in the NFL.
Although Young has as much or more work that needs to be done to his game, it's obvious to me that Young's upside is far greater -- and that trait is what sets these two apart. If I'm going to spend the type of time and money it will require to develop each of these unpolished prospects, I'd rather invest it in the individual who has the higher ceiling.
Young's release point is lower than ideal and his throwing motion is unorthodox, but he gets rid of the ball quickly and at nearly 6-foot-5, he is tall enough to get away with the three-quarter release. Although he lacks elite arm strength like Cutler, Young can make all the necessary throws at the next level and has a stronger arm than several solid NFL starters.
Young's accuracy as a passer has improved significantly over the course of the last two seasons. On film it is easy to witness Young's maturation in that department, and the statistics serve as confirmation. After completing just 59.2 percent of his throws as a sophomore in 2004, he completed 65.2 percent as a junior last season. It's not necessarily fair to compare statistics between the two because there are so many outside influences that play roles in those numbers, but football isn't always fair. The bottom line is that Young's completion percentage was 6.1 points better than Cutler's (59.1) in 2005, and that counts for something.
There is no comparison when it comes to athleticism and playmaking skills. Cutler has good mobility and is a tough competitor, but Young, who has exceptional quickness and elusiveness for his size, is far superior in this facet of the game. Right or wrong, Young was not planning on running at his pro day workout and he still ran in the area of 4.5 seconds when talked into it by NFL brass at the last minute. Although he won't be able to run away from defenders as easily in the NFL, Young will still be a dangerous running threat who will keep defenses honest. Perhaps more importantly, he will develop into one of the league's best when it comes to generating second-chance passing opportunities with his feet.
There is understandably some concern regarding Young's ability to hold up physically as a mobile quarterback who will take a lot more hits during a 16-game NFL season. After all, most mobile quarterbacks in the league are finding it increasingly difficult to stay on the field (see: Michael Vick, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair and Ben Roethlisberger). However, Young is a big, strong and flexible athlete with no history of durability issues.
Finally, Young might have bombed the Wonderlic, but most people who have met with both Young and Cutler would agree that Young is a greater leader and a more mature person. From what I can see, Young has more of the "it factor" that it takes to be a successful quarterback in the NFL.
There's no question that Cutler has the physical, mental and intangible characteristics to develop into a good starting quarterback at the next level. It's just that Young has the potential to be great in those areas. That's why if I were forced to lay my career on the line and recommend one or the other to a general manager when his team is on the clock on draft day, I wouldn't hesitate to select Young over Cutler.
Other tiebreaker recommendations
Running back: Laurence Maroney (Minnesota) vs. DeAngelo Williams (Memphis)
Maroney's biggest strengths: Frame, vision, initial burst, second-gear and change-of-direction skills.
Maroney's biggest weaknesses: Pad level, power, durability, passing game experience and overall blocking skills.
Williams' biggest strengths: Vision, running style, center of gravity, toughness and versatility.
Williams' biggest weaknesses: Durability, height and pass-pro technique.
Recommendation: Williams
Not only is USC's Reggie Bush the best running back prospect in this year's class, he's also the top prospect regardless of position. There is, however, a question as to how the other three first-round running back prospects (Maroney, Williams and USC's LenDale White) will come off the board. Because White is an early-entry prospect who also did not run or work out at the combine, I've chosen to leave him out of the debate for now -- we'll find out far more at USC's pro day. However, it's fairly clear after gathering all the information that Williams is a stronger candidate than Maroney.
Maroney is a slashing back with impressive vision, initial burst and top-end speed. He also has a great feel for the zone-blocking scheme, which makes him a good candidate for a team like the Broncos, who run a similar scheme and own a late first-round pick. But Maroney lacks ideal experience in the passing game, is not as thickly built and has not proved capable of handling the load as a premier back.
Williams comes with some durability issues of his own and he also has more mileage on his legs. However, breaking down the film and workout results of these two reveals Williams to be a far more versatile back who can fit well in most schemes at the next level. One of the biggest questions regarding Williams as an NFL prospect was his top-end speed. Those questions were answered when Williams (4.41 and 4.47) ran faster times than Maroney (4.48 and 4.49) at their respective pro day workouts.
Wide receiver: Santonio Holmes (Ohio State) vs. Chad Jackson (Florida)
Holmes' biggest strengths: Quickness, speed, run-after-catch explosiveness, body control, toughness and playmaking skills.
Holmes' biggest weaknesses: Size, concentration and overall inconsistency.
Jackson's biggest strengths: Size-speed combination, solid build, power, leaping ability, long arms, big hands, quickness and fluidity.
Jackson's biggest weaknesses: Erratic production, offensive system in college, concentration lapses and route-running polish.
Recommendation: Jackson
There's not a lot that separates the top two wide receiver prospects in this year's draft and ultimately it may be team preference that decides whether Holmes or Jackson is the first to come off the board. The film shows that Jackson will disappear from games more often, but Holmes isn't as consistent as scouts would like him to be, either. As such, neither is worth selecting in the top 15. It is my opinion, though, that Jackson is the better all-around prospect because he is bigger, stronger and faster. In a noticeably weak class of wide receivers, Jackson and Holmes should both be off the board by the time the Patriots select at pick No. 21.
Outside linebacker: Chad Greenway (Iowa) vs. Ernie Sims (Florida State)
Greenway's biggest strengths: Size, production, fluidity and coverage skills for his size, natural instincts and motor.
Greenway's biggest weaknesses: Ideal top-end speed, ability to take on blockers, explosive power and pursuit-angle consistency.
Sims' biggest strengths: Toughness, aggressiveness, explosiveness, power, quickness, speed, athleticism and motor.
Sims' biggest weaknesses: Discipline, technique, recognition skills, height and isolated off-the-field incident.
Recommendation: Sims
Ohio State's A.J. Hawk is the clear-cut best outside linebacker prospect in this year's draft class. After Hawk, however, the debate has seemingly been boiled down to Greenway and Sims for the second player taken at the position.
When it comes to postseason workouts, there's a fine line between getting caught up in all the numbers and ignoring the warning signs. As far as I'm concerned, this year's postseason workouts have been eye-opening in regard to the NFL potential of both Greenway and Sims.
Greenway was the more decorated collegiate player and he's more polished in terms of his recognition skills and overall technique at this point. However, Greenway's lack of ideal speed and strength have become quite concerning over the course of the last two months. Adding to those concerns are the inconsistencies I see on film from Greenway in regard to his ability to take on blockers and pursuit angles as a tackler.
Sims is far from a polished prospect. In fact, he plays out of control at times and has room for improvement when it comes to his recognition skills. Sims also lacks ideal size. However, he bulked up to 234 pounds at his recent pro day, when he ran the 40-yard dash in the 4.4-second area. Sims is also the tougher and more explosive linebacker, despite Greenway's 3-inch and 10-pound size advantage.
When it's all said and done, Greenway might be ready to contribute on defense sooner, but Sims should develop into the more versatile playmaker and should make a bigger impact over the long haul. That's why I think Sims is worth drafting somewhere between picks No. 11 and 15; Greenway is not worth a top-20 selection.
Inside linebacker: Abdul Hodge (Iowa) vs. D'Qwell Jackson (Maryland)
Hodge's biggest strengths: Toughness, short-area quickness, explosive power, tackling skills, pursuit angles, discipline and leadership skills.
Hodge's biggest weaknesses: Ideal size, phone booth, top-end speed and range/playmaking skills in coverage.
Jackson's biggest strengths: Instincts, versatility, aggressiveness, toughness, diagnostic skills, quickness, agility, motor and playmaking skills in coverage.
Jackson's biggest weaknesses: Size, lower-body strength, taking on blocks and durability.
Recommendation: Jackson
Neither Jackson nor Hodge grades out as a first-round prospect in the linebacker-heavy draft class, but both are likely to be off the board midway through Round 2. In all reality, there is very little that separates the two. Hodge is a bit bigger but Jackson is a bit more athletic.
The key difference, in my opinion, is that Jackson projects as an every-down linebacker who should be able to contribute both in coverage (eight career INTs) and as a pass rusher (10½ career sacks). Hodge, on the other hand, is effective on the blitz (seven career sacks) but he lacks ideal coverage skills (zero career INTs) and will be somewhat limited on obvious passing downs in the NFL.
Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN Insider.
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By Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
Matt Leinart did not participate in the workout portion of last month's combine and USC's pro day is not until Sunday. Still, I've seen enough over the course of the last three years to confidently say Leinart is the top quarterback prospect in the 2006 draft.
Far more difficult is deciding whether Texas' Vince Young or Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler should be the second quarterback to come off the board.
Young seemed to slip into hibernation following his extraordinary performance in the Longhorns' upset victory over the Trojans in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 4. His absence from the highlights created a vacuum and Cutler has benefited. During the 11-week stretch between the Rose Bowl and last week's pro day workout in Austin, Texas, it was easy to get caught up in the hype tornado surrounding Cutler. After all, the only new information regarding Young's draft stock was an embarrassing Wonderlic score (15 was his best of two attempts).
Meanwhile, Cutler clearly distinguished himself as the best quarterback prospect at the Senior Bowl. He had a solid all-around performance at the combine. He scored a 29 on the Wonderlic, ran the 40-yard dash in the high 4.7-second range, notched 23 reps on the 225-pound bench press and displayed the second-best arm strength of the participating quarterback prospects. The fact that he also wowed scouts with a strong passing performance in windy conditions at his Vanderbilt pro day on March 17 doesn't hurt, either.
With that being said, it's critical to remember that the draft process is a marathon, not a sprint. Over the course of the last week I have gone back and studied five game films on both Young and Cutler while also analyzing Cutler's combine workout compared to that of Young's pro day workout. Although the decision is admittedly still not an easy one, I can make a stronger case for drafting Young than I can for Cutler. Although his mechanics have been questioned, Young has come a long way as a passer.
Unlike Leinart, both Young and Cutler project as developmental prospects in the NFL. Cutler has more traditional qualities in terms of his throwing motion and the scheme in which he played at Vanderbilt. He also possesses the stronger arm. However, Cutler's mechanics and overall decision-making skills must be improved upon before he's ready to compete for a starting job in the NFL.
Although Young has as much or more work that needs to be done to his game, it's obvious to me that Young's upside is far greater -- and that trait is what sets these two apart. If I'm going to spend the type of time and money it will require to develop each of these unpolished prospects, I'd rather invest it in the individual who has the higher ceiling.
Young's release point is lower than ideal and his throwing motion is unorthodox, but he gets rid of the ball quickly and at nearly 6-foot-5, he is tall enough to get away with the three-quarter release. Although he lacks elite arm strength like Cutler, Young can make all the necessary throws at the next level and has a stronger arm than several solid NFL starters.
Young's accuracy as a passer has improved significantly over the course of the last two seasons. On film it is easy to witness Young's maturation in that department, and the statistics serve as confirmation. After completing just 59.2 percent of his throws as a sophomore in 2004, he completed 65.2 percent as a junior last season. It's not necessarily fair to compare statistics between the two because there are so many outside influences that play roles in those numbers, but football isn't always fair. The bottom line is that Young's completion percentage was 6.1 points better than Cutler's (59.1) in 2005, and that counts for something.
There is no comparison when it comes to athleticism and playmaking skills. Cutler has good mobility and is a tough competitor, but Young, who has exceptional quickness and elusiveness for his size, is far superior in this facet of the game. Right or wrong, Young was not planning on running at his pro day workout and he still ran in the area of 4.5 seconds when talked into it by NFL brass at the last minute. Although he won't be able to run away from defenders as easily in the NFL, Young will still be a dangerous running threat who will keep defenses honest. Perhaps more importantly, he will develop into one of the league's best when it comes to generating second-chance passing opportunities with his feet.
There is understandably some concern regarding Young's ability to hold up physically as a mobile quarterback who will take a lot more hits during a 16-game NFL season. After all, most mobile quarterbacks in the league are finding it increasingly difficult to stay on the field (see: Michael Vick, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair and Ben Roethlisberger). However, Young is a big, strong and flexible athlete with no history of durability issues.
Finally, Young might have bombed the Wonderlic, but most people who have met with both Young and Cutler would agree that Young is a greater leader and a more mature person. From what I can see, Young has more of the "it factor" that it takes to be a successful quarterback in the NFL.
There's no question that Cutler has the physical, mental and intangible characteristics to develop into a good starting quarterback at the next level. It's just that Young has the potential to be great in those areas. That's why if I were forced to lay my career on the line and recommend one or the other to a general manager when his team is on the clock on draft day, I wouldn't hesitate to select Young over Cutler.
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Other tiebreaker recommendations
Running back: Laurence Maroney (Minnesota) vs. DeAngelo Williams (Memphis)
Maroney's biggest strengths: Frame, vision, initial burst, second-gear and change-of-direction skills.
Maroney's biggest weaknesses: Pad level, power, durability, passing game experience and overall blocking skills.
Williams' biggest strengths: Vision, running style, center of gravity, toughness and versatility.
Williams' biggest weaknesses: Durability, height and pass-pro technique.
Recommendation: Williams
Not only is USC's Reggie Bush the best running back prospect in this year's class, he's also the top prospect regardless of position. There is, however, a question as to how the other three first-round running back prospects (Maroney, Williams and USC's LenDale White) will come off the board. Because White is an early-entry prospect who also did not run or work out at the combine, I've chosen to leave him out of the debate for now -- we'll find out far more at USC's pro day. However, it's fairly clear after gathering all the information that Williams is a stronger candidate than Maroney.
Maroney is a slashing back with impressive vision, initial burst and top-end speed. He also has a great feel for the zone-blocking scheme, which makes him a good candidate for a team like the Broncos, who run a similar scheme and own a late first-round pick. But Maroney lacks ideal experience in the passing game, is not as thickly built and has not proved capable of handling the load as a premier back.
Williams comes with some durability issues of his own and he also has more mileage on his legs. However, breaking down the film and workout results of these two reveals Williams to be a far more versatile back who can fit well in most schemes at the next level. One of the biggest questions regarding Williams as an NFL prospect was his top-end speed. Those questions were answered when Williams (4.41 and 4.47) ran faster times than Maroney (4.48 and 4.49) at their respective pro day workouts.
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Wide receiver: Santonio Holmes (Ohio State) vs. Chad Jackson (Florida)
Holmes' biggest strengths: Quickness, speed, run-after-catch explosiveness, body control, toughness and playmaking skills.
Holmes' biggest weaknesses: Size, concentration and overall inconsistency.
Jackson's biggest strengths: Size-speed combination, solid build, power, leaping ability, long arms, big hands, quickness and fluidity.
Jackson's biggest weaknesses: Erratic production, offensive system in college, concentration lapses and route-running polish.
Recommendation: Jackson
There's not a lot that separates the top two wide receiver prospects in this year's draft and ultimately it may be team preference that decides whether Holmes or Jackson is the first to come off the board. The film shows that Jackson will disappear from games more often, but Holmes isn't as consistent as scouts would like him to be, either. As such, neither is worth selecting in the top 15. It is my opinion, though, that Jackson is the better all-around prospect because he is bigger, stronger and faster. In a noticeably weak class of wide receivers, Jackson and Holmes should both be off the board by the time the Patriots select at pick No. 21.
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Outside linebacker: Chad Greenway (Iowa) vs. Ernie Sims (Florida State)
Greenway's biggest strengths: Size, production, fluidity and coverage skills for his size, natural instincts and motor.
Greenway's biggest weaknesses: Ideal top-end speed, ability to take on blockers, explosive power and pursuit-angle consistency.
Sims' biggest strengths: Toughness, aggressiveness, explosiveness, power, quickness, speed, athleticism and motor.
Sims' biggest weaknesses: Discipline, technique, recognition skills, height and isolated off-the-field incident.
Recommendation: Sims
Ohio State's A.J. Hawk is the clear-cut best outside linebacker prospect in this year's draft class. After Hawk, however, the debate has seemingly been boiled down to Greenway and Sims for the second player taken at the position.
When it comes to postseason workouts, there's a fine line between getting caught up in all the numbers and ignoring the warning signs. As far as I'm concerned, this year's postseason workouts have been eye-opening in regard to the NFL potential of both Greenway and Sims.
Greenway was the more decorated collegiate player and he's more polished in terms of his recognition skills and overall technique at this point. However, Greenway's lack of ideal speed and strength have become quite concerning over the course of the last two months. Adding to those concerns are the inconsistencies I see on film from Greenway in regard to his ability to take on blockers and pursuit angles as a tackler.
Sims is far from a polished prospect. In fact, he plays out of control at times and has room for improvement when it comes to his recognition skills. Sims also lacks ideal size. However, he bulked up to 234 pounds at his recent pro day, when he ran the 40-yard dash in the 4.4-second area. Sims is also the tougher and more explosive linebacker, despite Greenway's 3-inch and 10-pound size advantage.
When it's all said and done, Greenway might be ready to contribute on defense sooner, but Sims should develop into the more versatile playmaker and should make a bigger impact over the long haul. That's why I think Sims is worth drafting somewhere between picks No. 11 and 15; Greenway is not worth a top-20 selection.
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Inside linebacker: Abdul Hodge (Iowa) vs. D'Qwell Jackson (Maryland)
Hodge's biggest strengths: Toughness, short-area quickness, explosive power, tackling skills, pursuit angles, discipline and leadership skills.
Hodge's biggest weaknesses: Ideal size, phone booth, top-end speed and range/playmaking skills in coverage.
Jackson's biggest strengths: Instincts, versatility, aggressiveness, toughness, diagnostic skills, quickness, agility, motor and playmaking skills in coverage.
Jackson's biggest weaknesses: Size, lower-body strength, taking on blocks and durability.
Recommendation: Jackson
Neither Jackson nor Hodge grades out as a first-round prospect in the linebacker-heavy draft class, but both are likely to be off the board midway through Round 2. In all reality, there is very little that separates the two. Hodge is a bit bigger but Jackson is a bit more athletic.
The key difference, in my opinion, is that Jackson projects as an every-down linebacker who should be able to contribute both in coverage (eight career INTs) and as a pass rusher (10½ career sacks). Hodge, on the other hand, is effective on the blitz (seven career sacks) but he lacks ideal coverage skills (zero career INTs) and will be somewhat limited on obvious passing downs in the NFL.
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Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN Insider.
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