Stein Line picks NBA Awards

jbeecham

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By Marc Stein, ESPN.com


Steve Nash, if you can believe it, had only one scholarship offer from a Division I school.

It'll be an even bigger injustice if Nash doesn't have a like number of MVP trophies by next month.

Has their ever been a less likely MVP favorite than Steve Nash?

As covered in this cyberspace in January, Nash would be the most unlikely MVP winner in NBA history. He's a 30-year-old Canadian who has never been mentioned as an MVP contender before, playing a position that almost never produces MVPs. And don't forget the capper: Santa Clara's gamble, years before he became a drive-and-kick king with that unmistakable mop of hair, is the only thing that spared Nash from a college career at God Knows Where U.

Yet all that only serves to make Nash's story even more special. In his ninth season, and in spite of his supposed defensive deficiencies, the league consensus has him as a virtual certainty to finish no worse than No. 2 in MVP voting to Miami's Shaquille O'Neal.

Which is why Nash, whenever he hears that, has the same response almost every time.

"In a way, just to get this close, I feel like I've already won," he says.

That's not enough for this voter. He has to win it for real because no other player in the league – not even O'Neal in Miami – has had the impact this season to match Nash's. As impressive as Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion have been, and as much as coach Mike D'Antoni has liberated his players with a risky-yet-unwavering commitment to the run, Nash has been the difference. All those aforementioned Suns will tell you that, too.

If you prefer O'Neal over Nash, ask yourself this question: How many wins did you expect out of the Heat this season? If you're being honest, certainly that number isn't significantly lower than the 56 wins Miami has today.

Now ask yourself about Phoenix: How many wins did you expect for the Suns? You're flat-out lying if you're going to claim that, back in October, you thought they'd win more games than any other team in the whole league. Sun after Sun, again, will point to Nash as the difference maker when you ask him.

History, no doubt, is working against Nash. The only true point guard to win MVP honors in the past 40-plus years is Magic Johnson. The only player under 6-foot-6 to win in that same span is Allen Iverson, as a shooting guard in 2001.

But ...

Here's some more history for you: Phoenix is about to become just the second team in NBA annals to win 60 games after losing 50 in the previous season. The only other team to do it was the 1979-80 Boston Celtics, with a rookie named Larry Bird.

Since this is the final Friday of the regular season, with award ballots due back at the league office next Thursday, it's time to share all of our year-end selections with you. It was only right to commence our ballot-by-ballot breakdown with the spark who ignited the Suns' 31-4 start.

Nash for MVP.

Most Valuable Player

Steve Nash. It's not like Shaq doesn't have a strong case. Miami has gone unchallenged for months at the top of the East, countless members of the Heat (Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem and Damon Jones, just to name three) have improved noticeably at O'Neal's side, and the slimmed-down Diesel is about to become the first player in history to average 20 points and 10 boards for 13 straight seasons. Not even Wilt Chamberlain or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar managed that.

Factor in how deeply the Lakers have cratered since Shaq left and Nash has much to contend with. But he's been that good, folks. Stoudemire, for example, is a 56-percent shooter from the floor since teaming with Nash. Last season? Only 48 percent. Amare is as self-assured (read: cocky) as any player in this league, but even he said it earlier this season: "All the easy baskets are him." Meaning Nash.

So ...

Having helped Phoenix amass the league's best record, and making other players better as well as anyone does it these days, Nash has to be the choice. Has to be.

As for the rest of the five-man MVP ballot, Nash's old pick-and-roll pal – Dirk Nowitzki – moved up to third here with a career year of his own. The No. 3 spot likely would have gone to San Antonio's Tim Duncan, who slips to fourth, had Duncan not missed so many games, but Nowitzki proved his worthiness by keeping the Mavericks among the league's elite in spite of a season-long string of injuries in Dallas and, ultimately, a coaching change. And despite losing his best friend and set-up man as a teammate. Funny how it worked out for the Stockton-to-Malone tandem of the new millennium: Nash and Nowitzki were even better apart than they were together.

Cleveland's LeBron James beats out Philadelphia's Iverson for No. 5 by becoming just the fifth player in league history to average 24 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in one season. The 20-year-old joins Oscar Robertson, John Havlicek, Larry Bird and Michael Jordan on that short list.

Yet we reserve the right to make an 11th-hour change to the ballot next week if Cleveland drops out of the playoffs. It won't be LeBron's fault – he has been Herculean trying to keep the sinking Cavaliers in the East's top eight – but our "Team Success Breaks All Ties" credo demands that Iverson moves up if the Cavs drop out. Don't forget that AI, the scoring champ, is averaging a healthy 30.6 points, 8.0 assists and 2.5 steals himself, in what he considers a better individual season than his MVP-winning campaign of 2000-01. The Answer just might be right.

Stein's ballot:
1. Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns
2. Shaquille O'Neal, Miami Heat
3. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
4. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
5. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
October prediction: Duncan

Coach of the Year

Nate McMillan. As usual, this is the most competitive category, and the debate hasn't relaxed any since we assessed the COY field at length on March 29. D'Antoni has been daring and innovative and yet I can't figure out how to get him in my top three, because of Seattle's McMillan, Indiana's Rick Carlisle and Chicago's Scott Skiles.

You could pick any of those four and feel great about the choice. You could even make a compelling case for George Karl, who will wind up coaching only 40 of Denver's 82 games but might not lose more than six of them.

Carlisle, in what must be regarded as his best-ever coaching job, has Indiana pushing for home-court advantage in the first round despite all the suspensions and injuries in America's heartland. Skiles overcame an 0-9 start and the absence of a single All-Star to oversee a turnaround that finds the Bulls sporting one of the top five records in the league since Jan. 1 at 35-17.

McMillan edges them both because the Sonics, with Danny Fortson passing as the marquee offseason addition to a team that went 37-45 in 2003-04, have 50 wins. Injuries have saddled Seattle with a worrisome six-game losing streak, but the fact that the Sonics still hold a three-game division lead over the scorching Nuggets with four games to play should tell you how wildly successful they've been.

Disclaimer No. 2: If Seattle slides all the way out of the Northwest Division lead by losing its final four games, we reserve the right to amend this ballot before formally submitting it next Thursday ... which still means an unenviable choice between Carlisle, Skiles and D'Antoni.

Stein's ballot:
1. Nate McMillan, Seattle SuperSonics
2. Rick Carlisle, Indiana Pacers
3. Scott Skiles, Chicago Bulls
October prediction: Flip Saunders, Minnesota Timberwolves

Rookie of the Year

Emeka Okafor. Here's another race we dissected in the past few weeks. As with the above COY dissection, we urge you to click on the link provided here for more than you could ever want to explain why Okafor should get the hardware. Although Okafor's double-double steadiness and his role in helping the Bobcats double the nine wins many experts projected should be strong hints. We also don't deny that Okafor's cause will be helped by the voters' option of making Gordon their Sixth Man winner, allowing them to reward both rookies.

Stein's ballot:
1. Emeka Okafor, Charlotte Bobcats
2. Ben Gordon, Chicago Bulls
3. Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
October prediction: Okafor

Sixth Man of the Year

Ben Gordon. Chicago could use some upbeat news after losing Eddy Curry and Luol Deng for the rest of the season, and Gordon's lead in this race undoubtedly guarantees that the Bulls will win something in coming weeks no matter what happens in the playoffs. He has scored 20 points as a sub 25 times and leads the league – players of all ages – with 20 double-digit fourth quarters. He's also the first rookie to score at least 1,000 points off the bench since James Worthy for the Lakers in 1982-83.

No rookie has ever won the Sixth Man Award, but Gordon's a worthy choice over Boston's Ricky Davis and Dallas' Jerry Stackhouse. (Although dare we say Stack, whose campaign was curtailed by his own recent injury woes, figures to be the best sixth man in the postseason.)

Stein's ballot:
1. Ben Gordon, Chicago Bulls
2. Ricky Davis, Boston Celtics
3. Jerry Stackhouse, Dallas Mavericks
October prediction: Antonio McDyess, Detroit

Most Improved Player

Grant Hill. This category is always a wrestling match, trying to decide which path to follow.

Do you prefer the guy who comes from nowhere to a role of prominence, such as Bobby Simmons of the L.A. Clippers or Charlotte's Primoz Brezec?

Or do you prefer the guy who goes from good to even better, like Washington's Larry Hughes and, to a less obvious extent, Detroit's Tayshaun Prince and Dallas' Josh Howard?

Or maybe you like the guy who goes faster than expected from great prospect to full-fledged stud, as seen this season with a few of league's foremost youngsters: LeBron, Stoudemire and Miami's Dwyane Wade.

Our solution? Instead of wrestling with all that, we chose instead to turn this award into what it used to be. The NBA's Comeback Player of the Year award was replaced by the MIP in 1985-86, after a string of former drug abusers won comeback honors. But we wanted to find a way to reward Hill, who held up for 67 games after managing a total of just 47 in his first four seasons in Orlando and returned to the All-Star Game as an East starter via the fan vote.

Hill's health improved and that was good enough for me. I believed it going into the season, and this class act's ankle was sufficiently sturdy to make the premonition stand.

Stein's ballot:
1. Grant Hill, Orlando Magic
2. Bobby Simmons, Los Angeles Clippers
3. Tayshaun Prince, Detroit Pistons
October prediction: Hill

Defensive Player of the Year

Bruce Bowen. The best defender we've seen all season is Utah's Andrei Kirilenko. Sadly, though, long-term injury absences have limited Kirilenko to 41 games. And reigning DPOY Ron Artest appeared in just seven games before the Indiana stopper's season-ending suspension.

The reflex reaction is picking one of the three men who could make a worthy case for this trophy every season: Detroit's Ben Wallace, Minnesota's Kevin Garnett and San Antonio's Tim Duncan.

Instead we chose Bowen, who has elevated his perimeter defense to the Artest level ... as confirmed by all the complaining you hear from various stars he guards.

We couldn't, in good faith, put Kirilenko higher than No. 2, as much as we love his game, since he missed half the season. The Suns' Marion was another tempting choice, given his rebounds-and-steals versatility and his ability to guard power forwards so ably at just 6-7, but not ahead of Bowen.

Even on the best defensive team in the league, Bowen's defense stands out.

Stein's ballot:
1. Bruce Bowen, San Antonio Spurs
2. Andrei Kirilenko, Utah Jazz
3. Shawn Marion, Phoenix Suns
October prediction: Kirilenko

All-NBA Teams

FIRST TEAM
F Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
F Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
C Shaquille O'Neal, Miami Heat
G Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns
G LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

Stein's justification: Easy. These are the same five names on my MVP ballot.

SECOND TEAM
F Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets
F Kevin Garnett, Minnesota Timberwolves
C Amare Stoudemire, Phoenix Suns
G Allen Iverson, Philadelphia 76ers
G Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat

Stein's justification: Also easy. Stoudemire doesn't like to be called a center, but he's the closest thing to a center in the Suns' starting lineup. Iverson and Wade had seasons arguably worthy of the first team and Garnett, in spite of Minnesota's stunning fade from No. 1 to No. 9 in the West, hasn't missed a single game even though he has been plagued by serious knee soreness for months. And the reigning MVP, while amassing some of the gaudiest numbers of his career, has at least prevented the Wolves from slipping below .500, unlike a certain No. 8 in Hollywood.

THIRD TEAM
F Shawn Marion, Phoenix Suns
F Vince Carter, New Jersey Nets
C Yao Ming, Houston Rockets
G Ray Allen, Seattle SuperSonics
G Gilbert Arenas, Washington Wizards

Stein's justification: Not so easy. Carter is a controversial choice because of his less-than-robust start to the season in Toronto, but the move to New Jersey has prompted Vinsanity to churn out numbers that rival Kobe Bryant's. And since voters are obligated to vote for the players at the positions they predominantly play, Kobe is eligible only for a guard slot, putting him in a duel with Gilbert Arenas for the last All-NBA spot. Team success bumped Bryant, since Arenas has managed to keep surprising Washington in the East's top eight despite injuries to Hughes and Antawn Jamison. Harsh as that might seem on Bryant, it's also hard to ignore that Arenas has given Washington the lead with less than a minute remaining in the fourth quarter or OT seven times. That ranks Arenas third in the league in go-ahead scores in the final minute, behind only Orlando's Steve Francis (nine times) and Boston's Paul Pierce (eight).
 
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Chaplin

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I like pretty much everything, although I think I would put Shawn on the 2nd team and McGrady on the 3rd team. McGrady is all scoring and that's about it--Shawn is so much more. Of course, that could just be homerism, but objectively I don't think my arguement is far off base.
 
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jbeecham

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One of the few areas I don't agree with is the defensive player of the year award. Kirlenko shouldn't even be mentioned since he missed more than half of the season. Marion may not be a lockdown 1-on-1 defender, but he is a good 1-on-1 defender and a great team defender. His rebounding, steals and blocks should put him over the top for 1st place or at least 2nd. He should also be on the all-defensive team (which isn't listed?).
 

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Totally agree. :)

The Defensive Player of the Year is very tough for Marion because Suns is labeled as a soft team. :( But being mentioned in the Top3 is already a big accomplishment for Marion in my opinion.
 

Cheesebeef

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Chaplin said:
I like pretty much everything, although I think I would put Shawn on the 2nd team and McGrady on the 3rd team. McGrady is all scoring and that's about it--Shawn is so much more. Of course, that could just be homerism, but objectively I don't think my arguement is far off base.

I don't buy it. To say McGrady is all scoring and that's it is wayyyy too simplistic. His ability ot draw double teams opens up the entire offense and his 4.5 assists ain't too shabby either. 26/4/6 are pretty damn impressive numbers and considering that he's the leader of one of the better teams in the West gives him the nod over Shawn.

Not a knock on Shawn - he's a great season, but I don't think he's in McGrady's tier.
 
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jbeecham

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Bruce Bowen's Stats:

0.7 steals/game, 0.5 blocks/game, 3.5 rebs/game, 32.2 minutes/game


Marion's Stats:

2.01 steals/game (#4 in league), 1.44 blocks/game (#25 in league), 11.5 rebs/game (#3 in league), 39.3 minutes/game
 

Chaplin

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cheesebeef said:
Not a knock on Shawn - he's a great season, but I don't think he's in McGrady's tier.

Come on, that is laughable. Regardless whether you think that Marion is underrated or not, Marion is easily in McGrady's tier. He can't be double-teamed because defenders can't leave their own assignments.

There's no question that McGrady is a dynamic scorer and can put points on the board quicker than Marion. No question. But Marion is better in almost every other category, in some instances MUCH better. Does TMac's ability to score a few more points outweigh Shawn's ability to rebound, steal and defend bigger players better? I don't think it does. At worst, it makes them relatively even.
 
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fordronken

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Chaplin said:
Come on, that is laughable. Regardless whether you think that Marion is underrated or not, Marion is easily in McGrady's tier. He can't be double-teamed because defenders can't leave their own assignments.

And both would be much less successful on the others' team.
 

Cheesebeef

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Chaplin said:
Come on, that is laughable. Regardless whether you think that Marion is underrated or not, Marion is easily in McGrady's tier. He can't be double-teamed because defenders can't leave their own assignments.

Chap - I think you and maybe three other people on this board believe the above. Otherwise - why were we apparently offering Marion, along with our first round pick AND another Player for a guy who is apparently at Marion's level last summer. That doesn't make much sense for a guy who EASILY in Marion's tier now does it?

Did you EVER see ANYONE double Shawn Marion in his five years on the Suns? There's been some lean years, but I have NEVER seen that once.

Put Marion at SF in exchange for McGrady on the Rockets and you have a low-lottery team, not a team bucking for 50 wins.

When did you become such a homer?
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Chaplin said:
Come on, that is laughable. Regardless whether you think that Marion is underrated or not, Marion is easily in McGrady's tier. He can't be double-teamed because defenders can't leave their own assignments.


marion is not in mcgrady's tier. marion is the ultimate roleplayer. mcgrady is a superstar.
 

Chaplin

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Ouchie-Z-Clown said:
marion is not in mcgrady's tier. marion is the ultimate roleplayer. mcgrady is a superstar.

McGrady may be a superstar, but it's the media that made him that way. He's inconsistent and again, can only score better than Shawn. That's it. What tier, then, are you talking about? The media's labeling tier, or the actual basketball skill tier? If we're talking about the perception of the media and fans, then yes, McGrady is definitely a superstar and Marion a "roleplayer". Ultimate roleplayer means nothing. Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley are "ultimate roleplayers"--Marion is better than both.

The ONLY reason he is ranked above Shawn Marion is because of the media's labeling of him.

So what if I'm one of only 3 people that believe it?
 

fordronken

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Sorry to change subject, but if Marc Stein is so concerned about winning as the tie-breaker, why isn't D'Antoni rated higher, especially with the Sonics' late season melt down?
 
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McGrady has a clutch factor and the ability to get off his shot over any defender (without making it into some funky running spinning shot). Shawn definately brings more to the table in every other aspect of the game, but McGrady may be one of the best pure scorers in the league. Shawn has hit some big shots, but I don't consider him a clutch player offensively where he'd be the only guy that I want to have the ball at the end of a game. He'd probably be my 4th-5th choice on the Suns team behind Q, Nash, JJ, and maybe even Jim Jackson if he's hot.
 

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Chaplin said:
McGrady may be a superstar, but it's the media that made him that way. He's inconsistent and again, can only score better than Shawn. That's it. What tier, then, are you talking about? The media's labeling tier, or the actual basketball skill tier? If we're talking about the perception of the media and fans, then yes, McGrady is definitely a superstar and Marion a "roleplayer". Ultimate roleplayer means nothing. Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley are "ultimate roleplayers"--Marion is better than both.

The ONLY reason he is ranked above Shawn Marion is because of the media's labeling of him.

So what if I'm one of only 3 people that believe it?

i think that gms would consider mcgrady a superstar as well. and they wouldn't put marion into that category (again, see cheese's comment about the rumored trade last summer - our gm was willing to give up marion+ while the magic's gm wanted even more for tmac). your homerism is off the scale on this one.
 

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the media didn't get the horrible Magic teams into the playoffs in consecutive years or have the Magic one game away from knocking out the #2 seeded Pistons two years ago.

McGrady is a go-to guy scorer and someone who CREATES offense - Shawn does everything else better - agreed - but the above - outshadow Shawn's rebounding/steals.

If you're gonna build a team - you start witht he McGrady's - Marion's come down the line.
 

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Ouchie-Z-Clown said:
i think that gms would consider mcgrady a superstar as well. and they wouldn't put marion into that category (again, see cheese's comment about the rumored trade last summer - our gm was willing to give up marion+ while the magic's gm wanted even more for tmac). your homerism is off the scale on this one.

Dude, don't get with the insults. Regardless of whether he's a Sun or not, I believe what I believe.
 

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Chaplin said:
Dude, don't get with the insults. Regardless of whether he's a Sun or not, I believe what I believe.

since when did "homerism" become an insult? Don't get so defensive man - I mean didn;'t you yourself say that you might be being a homer on this issue? Just because you said something ridiculous doesn't make you an less in our eyes.:D

And Chap - what about the question about BC apparently thinking McGrady's value was a 1ST rounder and another player higher than Marion's?
 

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Chaplin said:
Of course, that could just be homerism,

careful with the insults here Chap - I may have to report you to a Moderator. :D (I'm a jerk.)
 

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cheesebeef said:
since when did "homerism" become an insult? And Chap - what about the question about BC apparently thinking McGrady's value was a 1ST rounder and another player higher than Marion's?

I know he's your buddy and you're going to defend him, but his comment basically means I don't know what the hell I'm talking about because I'm jaded by my love for the Suns.

If I had to choose between the two, I'd choose Shawn. No apologies for that opinion. If I had to choose between TMac and Joe Johnson, I'd definitely choose TMac.

BTW, the Moderators just love me! :p
 

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Chaplin said:
I know he's your buddy and you're going to defend him, but his comment basically means I don't know what the hell I'm talking about because I'm jaded by my love for the Suns.

If I had to choose between the two, I'd choose Shawn. No apologies for that opinion. If I had to choose between TMac and Joe Johnson, I'd definitely choose TMac.

BTW, the Moderators just love me! :p

he's actually my brother - but if he werer out of line, I'd call him an ass - do it everyday. But - come on man - you called yourself out as a homer - just found it weird that you took it as that insulting.

And honestly - if what you say above is true - I'm glad you're not the Suns GM! YOU HOMER!
 

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cheesebeef said:
And honestly - if what you say above is true - I'm glad you're not the Suns GM! YOU HOMER!

I'm glad that most of the people on this board are not the Suns GM. :D
 

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cheesebeef said:
he's actually my brother - but if he werer out of line, I'd call him an ass - do it everyday. But - come on man - you called yourself out as a homer - just found it weird that you took it as that insulting.

And honestly - if what you say above is true - I'm glad you're not the Suns GM! YOU HOMER!

I guess it was more about the "off the scale" comment. I mean we've all seen Marion more than most people, but it's not easy for a 6'7" player to do what Shawn does. In fact, it's mind-boggling. TMac does what he does in his natural position. Shawn does what he does playing against guys that are 3-4" taller and outweight him by at least 30 pounds! That's not just impressive, that's amazing. I still have trouble figuring out just HOW he does it.

Think about it--McGrady is near the same size as Shawn (I don't know the specifics), but make him play power forward, even with Yao Ming, and what happens?
 
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