Are they 'improved' or just uncovered talents?
Are they 'improved' or just uncovered talents?
Thursday, December 9, 2004
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
Chad Ford's Chat Wrap with SportsNation on Thursday
Bobby Simmons has been awesome. Marko Jaric looks like the next international sensation. Kyle Korver has the Team USA selection committee drooling.
Two months ago, no one knew who any of these guys were. Now all three are putting up impressive numbers in Los Angeles and Philadelphia. But contrary to popular belief, none of them is the "most improved" player in the league.
In the pantheon of bogus awards the media hand out to players and coaches at the end of the season, there's the bad – and then there's the Most Improved Player Award.
What it really should be called is the Most Improved Points, Rebounds and Assists Per Game Award.
Last year, the Trail Blazers' Zach Randolph took home the honor after he increased his points-per-game average from 8.4 to 20.1 and his rebounds-per-game average from 4.4 to 10.5.
Those are impressive increases sure. But the biggest increase Randolph got was in his playing time. In 2002-03 he averaged just 16.9 mpg. In 2003-04 he boosted that to 37.9 mpg.
When you figure Randolph's scoring and rebounding averages per 40 minutes in 2002-03, it comes out to almost in exactly what he did in 2003-04: 20 ppg and 10.5 rpg.
Improvement on the court had little to do with Randolph's big numbers. If you watched the Blazers' playoff series in the spring of 2003, you saw this coming. He was dominant against the Mavs, guaranteeing he was going to get love from coach Mo Cheeks the next year.
Credit still goes to Randolph for a spectacular season, but I'm not sure the Most Improved Award is aptly named. What Randolph was, in my book, was a "breakout player" – a player whose numbers increase dramatically because of playing time.
Stats guru John Hollinger argues in "The Pro Baskeball Forecast" that what a player does on a per-minute basis is far more reflective of what a player's performance really is than per-game stats.
Winners of the award the past several years – Gilbert Arenas, Jermaine O'Neal and Tracy McGrady – bear that out. Each player's per-game numbers rocketed with more playing time – but his per-minute numbers remained fairly constant.
Murray had been thrust into the lineup when Ray Allen missed the regular season's first 25 games after ankle surgery. Murray looked awesome. People were shocked that Murray, a former second-round pick, was such a good scorer. At Shaw University, Murray averaged 23.5 ppg and was named Division II player of the year. His NBA rookie year with the Bucks and Sonics, he rarely got on the floor. But when he did play, his point-per-minute average of 17.4 was very similar to what he did the next season as Allen's replacement.
What happened to Murray last season when Allen returned was equally interesting. The rest of the season, Murray averaged about half the minutes and half the points per game he did while Allen was out. He didn't finish in the top five voting for Most Improved Player, even though there was no evidence Murray was any less of a player.
That's a long-winded way of getting around to this year's Most Improved Player Candidates. By now, you've seen what Simmons or Korver are doing and you're probably scratching your head and saying, "Who?"
The answer: They're breakout players – guys who are doing essentially the same thing thing they did last year. They just are getting more minutes to put up better numbers.
Bobby Simmons, G/F, Clippers
2003-04 Per Game: 24.6 mpg, 7.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg on 39 percent shooting from the field.
2003-04 Per Minute: 40 mpg, 12.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg.
2004-05 Stats: 38 mpg, 16.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg on 56 percent shooting from the field.
The Skinny: Simmons actually got decent playing time last year for the Clippers, backing up Quentin Richardson and Corey Maggette. But Richardson left the Clippers for the Suns this summer, and his replacement, Kerry Kittles, hasn't been healthy. That explains the big minutes Simmons is receiving.
The answer: According to those who've watched Simmons play at both DePaul and in the NBA, Simmons is an excellent shooter who just had an off year last season.
Of course you can also make the argument that Simmons has improved. The former DePaul star has been a pet project of Michael Jordan and Jordan's former trainer, Tim Grover.
When Grover got him his rookie season, the 6-foot-6 Simmons weighed 255 pounds and really didn't have a position. At DePaul, he played four different spots and struggled to settle on one in the NBA. Over the course of the past several years, though, he's dropped 20 pounds and remade his game. The results have been impressive.
Simmons is a native of Chicago and spends his summers training and playing pick-up ball there with the likes of Paul Pierce, Dwyane Wade, Michael Finley, Elton Brand, Maggette and Richardson.
Every summer when I'd make my pilgrimage there before the NBA draft, these players would tell me Simmons was ready to break out. After spending two years under Jordan's thumb in Washington, he was picked up by the Clippers, in large part due to the recommendations of Brand, Maggette and Richardson.
Simmons has all the tools to be an excellent NBA player. He is big, has great athleticism, plays aggressively, is excellent crashing the offensive boards and has an improving jump shot. At 235 pounds he's big enough to bang in the paint, but also quick enough to defend the perimeter. In other words, it's unlikely Simmons will be a one-hit wonder. While it's tough to believe his shooting percentage can remain that high, scouts claim he could easily be a 48- to 49-percent shooter over the course of his career.
His minutes and numbers might decline when Kittles is healthy, but the Clippers have realized Simmons is a big reason they've started the season 11-7. Now comes the tricky part – re-signing him next summer when he becomes a free agent.
The Clippers will have plenty of cap room, but will they use some of it on Simmons? Donald Sterling has a history of not wanting to pay for unproven players, and Simmons stands to get a hefty paycheck next summer. Simmons would love to return to the Midwest and, according to sources, both the Bulls and the Bucks have expressed interest.
Marko Jaric, G, Clippers
2003-04 Per Game: 30.3 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 4.8 apg, 1.6 spg.
2003-04 Per Minute: 40 mpg, 11.2 ppg, 6.4 apg.
2004-05 Stats: 35.7 mpg, 11.8 ppg, 6.7 apg, 2.2 spg.
The Skinny: He's the other reason the Clippers are 11-7. Jaric has looked fantastic this year. Both his minutes and averages are up just slightly from 2003, but he is having a much bigger impact on the court than he did last year.
This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone who's followed Jaric's career. He was a superstar in Europe, playing for one of the top Euroleague teams in Bologna before heading to the Clippers in 2002. The Clippers weren't sure when they got him, however, whether he was cut out to be a point guard in the NBA. His size and relative lack of lateral quickness convinced them to give him just spot duty at the point. This year, though, with no viable options left, coach Mike Dunleavy has been forced to play him there full time, and the results have been impressive. The Clippers are 6-2 over that stretch.
How much longer it will last? The Clippers drafted Livingston as their point guard of the future and he, too, has shown flashes of brilliance. Once Livington returns in mid-January, the team likely will return to a two-man rotation at point. Jaric will also see spot duty at the two or three.
If Livingston pans out, good luck convincing Sterling to spend the cash on Jaric this summer when the veteran hits restricted free agency. A number of GMs covet him, and the chance to play point guard full time somewhere else might be too much of a lure.
Kyle Korver, F, Sixers
2003-04 Per Game: 11.9 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg on 35 percent shooting, 39 percent from 3
2003-04 Per Minute: 40 mpg, 15 ppg, 5 rpg.
2004-05 Stats: 31.4 mpg, 12.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg on 44 percent shooting, 41 percent from 3.
The Skinny: If you watched last year's All-Star game 3-point shootout, you knew Korver could shoot.
Nothing on the scouting report has changed for Korver. He is one-dimensional. For example, 92 percent of the shots he takes are jumpers and 71 percent of the shots he takes are 3-pointers. What has changed is his head coach. Jim O'Brien is willing to live with the fact Korver doesn't rebound and can't defend, because he's the only guy on the team who can consistently drain a 3. With Allen Iverson constantly penetrating, the ability to kick out to guy like Korver is invaluable.
All of this talk about him getting better defensively might have a little bit of truth to it – but that's not why he's playing 30 minutes a night. Everyone else on that team defends better than Korver. He's there to shoot it – and he normally does that so well that Team USA will want to make sure it considers him for the 2008 Olympic Games. Makes you wonder what guys like Steve Kerr or Tim Legler would have done had their coaches played them 30 minutes a night and given them the green light to shoot at will.
Fred Jones, G, Pacers
2003-04 Per Game: 18.6 mpg, 4.9 ppg, 1.5 rpg on 39 percent shooting.
2003-04 Per Minute: 40 mpg, 10.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg.
2004-05 Stats: 36.1 mpg, 13.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg on 45 percent shooting.
The Skinny: What a difference not throwing a punch can make in someone's career. With Ron Artest and Stephen Jackson suspended for their roles in a Nov. 19 player-fan brawl in Detroit, Jones was transformed overnight. Instead of being a role player he is – at times – the Pacers' go-to scorer on the perimeter.
Jones
Jones ventured into the stands and absorbed a couple of blows, but he restrained himself and ended up coming out of the ruckus smelling sweet. Jones responded in the Pacers' next game by scoring a career-high 31 points in 48 minutes. Since that night, he's been averaging 16.1 ppg for the Pacers and turning plenty of heads with his athletic play.
Jones' numbers actually exceed his per-minute stats by more than any one else on the list. Why? Because with so many players on the team injured or suspended, Jones is taking more shots per minute than he would normally. His improved field-goal percentage also helps a bit.
Like everyone else on this list, you have to ask yourself how long it will last? Jones is the only guy here who was drafted in the first round (though many believed the Pacers greatly overreached for him) and showed potential last season as a reserve.
But he's got several things working against him. First, his numbers already have started to decline since Reggie Miller returned. They'll slip again, big time, when Stephen Jackson returns from his suspension.
Second, at just 6-foot-3, Jones is undersized for his position. Jones makes up for some of that with an impressive wingspan, but that can't totally compensate for his stature. In a perfect world, Jones is a sparkplug off the bench, not a starter.
Once the Pacers' main guns return, expect him to slide right back into that role.
Maurice Williams, G, Bucks
2003-04 Per Game: 13.5 mpg, 5 ppg, 1.3 apg.
2003-04 Per Minute: 40 mpg, 14.7 ppg, 3.9 apg.
2004-05 Stats: 30.4 mpg, 9.3 ppg, 6.9 apg.
Skinny: Williams got three preseason breaks that contributed to his fast rise. First, the Bucks made him a free-agent offer last summer because they were uncertain when or if T.J. Ford was going to return from a spinal injury. Second, the Jazz surprisingly decided not to match the Bucks' $1.8 million offer despite the fact that the team liked him and had injury issues at point guard. Finally, the Bucks' other point guard, Mike James, also went down with an early injury.
Williams
That put the onus on Williams, in just his second year out of Alabama, to run the team.
Given the minutes and zero safety net, Williams responded by averaging 7.4 apg in the month of November, ranking him sixth among all point guards in the league.
Williams appears to be another player scouts missed on. Almost every scout we talked to in 2003 thought Williams had the chance to be something special. He was putting up fantastic numbers at Alabama. However, the 2003 draft was stocked with point guards, and Williams didn't do enough to distinguish himself in workouts – something that's always hard for a traditional point guard.
Another year or two of college, and Williams might have been a mid first-rounder. Now he's the starting point guard for the Bucks and slowly making Ford an afterthought.
If Ford returns this season, he'll likely be worked into the lineup slowly with the goal of becoming a starter. As good as Williams is, Ford is better, especially at pushing the ball. Williams is under contract for two more years, however, meaning the Bucks own either a very solid point guard or valuable trade bait if Ford regains his health.
Are they 'improved' or just uncovered talents?
Thursday, December 9, 2004
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
Chad Ford's Chat Wrap with SportsNation on Thursday
Bobby Simmons has been awesome. Marko Jaric looks like the next international sensation. Kyle Korver has the Team USA selection committee drooling.
Two months ago, no one knew who any of these guys were. Now all three are putting up impressive numbers in Los Angeles and Philadelphia. But contrary to popular belief, none of them is the "most improved" player in the league.
In the pantheon of bogus awards the media hand out to players and coaches at the end of the season, there's the bad – and then there's the Most Improved Player Award.
What it really should be called is the Most Improved Points, Rebounds and Assists Per Game Award.
Last year, the Trail Blazers' Zach Randolph took home the honor after he increased his points-per-game average from 8.4 to 20.1 and his rebounds-per-game average from 4.4 to 10.5.
Those are impressive increases sure. But the biggest increase Randolph got was in his playing time. In 2002-03 he averaged just 16.9 mpg. In 2003-04 he boosted that to 37.9 mpg.
When you figure Randolph's scoring and rebounding averages per 40 minutes in 2002-03, it comes out to almost in exactly what he did in 2003-04: 20 ppg and 10.5 rpg.
Improvement on the court had little to do with Randolph's big numbers. If you watched the Blazers' playoff series in the spring of 2003, you saw this coming. He was dominant against the Mavs, guaranteeing he was going to get love from coach Mo Cheeks the next year.
Credit still goes to Randolph for a spectacular season, but I'm not sure the Most Improved Award is aptly named. What Randolph was, in my book, was a "breakout player" – a player whose numbers increase dramatically because of playing time.
Stats guru John Hollinger argues in "The Pro Baskeball Forecast" that what a player does on a per-minute basis is far more reflective of what a player's performance really is than per-game stats.
Winners of the award the past several years – Gilbert Arenas, Jermaine O'Neal and Tracy McGrady – bear that out. Each player's per-game numbers rocketed with more playing time – but his per-minute numbers remained fairly constant.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Last season, Murray was the frontrunner for the "Most Improved" award.[/font]To see how important the effect of playing time can be, check out last year's early frontrunner to win the award: Seattle's Ronald "Flip" Murray. If you remember, about 18 games into last season Murray was averaging 19.2 ppg up. That was a dramatic increase from his previous season's average of 2 ppg. Murray had been thrust into the lineup when Ray Allen missed the regular season's first 25 games after ankle surgery. Murray looked awesome. People were shocked that Murray, a former second-round pick, was such a good scorer. At Shaw University, Murray averaged 23.5 ppg and was named Division II player of the year. His NBA rookie year with the Bucks and Sonics, he rarely got on the floor. But when he did play, his point-per-minute average of 17.4 was very similar to what he did the next season as Allen's replacement.
What happened to Murray last season when Allen returned was equally interesting. The rest of the season, Murray averaged about half the minutes and half the points per game he did while Allen was out. He didn't finish in the top five voting for Most Improved Player, even though there was no evidence Murray was any less of a player.
That's a long-winded way of getting around to this year's Most Improved Player Candidates. By now, you've seen what Simmons or Korver are doing and you're probably scratching your head and saying, "Who?"
The answer: They're breakout players – guys who are doing essentially the same thing thing they did last year. They just are getting more minutes to put up better numbers.
Bobby Simmons, G/F, Clippers
2003-04 Per Game: 24.6 mpg, 7.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg on 39 percent shooting from the field.
2003-04 Per Minute: 40 mpg, 12.7 ppg, 7.6 rpg.
2004-05 Stats: 38 mpg, 16.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg on 56 percent shooting from the field.
The Skinny: Simmons actually got decent playing time last year for the Clippers, backing up Quentin Richardson and Corey Maggette. But Richardson left the Clippers for the Suns this summer, and his replacement, Kerry Kittles, hasn't been healthy. That explains the big minutes Simmons is receiving.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Once a Jordan pupil, Simmons has dropped 20 pounds and changed his game.[/font]The extra 14 minutes a game and 17 percent increase in shooting percentage explain the increase in ppg and rpg from Simmons' per-game averages. So the question arises: Is Simmons' impressive 56 percent shooting a fluke, or was his 39 percent shooting in 2003-04 the anomaly? The answer: According to those who've watched Simmons play at both DePaul and in the NBA, Simmons is an excellent shooter who just had an off year last season.
Of course you can also make the argument that Simmons has improved. The former DePaul star has been a pet project of Michael Jordan and Jordan's former trainer, Tim Grover.
When Grover got him his rookie season, the 6-foot-6 Simmons weighed 255 pounds and really didn't have a position. At DePaul, he played four different spots and struggled to settle on one in the NBA. Over the course of the past several years, though, he's dropped 20 pounds and remade his game. The results have been impressive.
Simmons is a native of Chicago and spends his summers training and playing pick-up ball there with the likes of Paul Pierce, Dwyane Wade, Michael Finley, Elton Brand, Maggette and Richardson.
Every summer when I'd make my pilgrimage there before the NBA draft, these players would tell me Simmons was ready to break out. After spending two years under Jordan's thumb in Washington, he was picked up by the Clippers, in large part due to the recommendations of Brand, Maggette and Richardson.
Simmons has all the tools to be an excellent NBA player. He is big, has great athleticism, plays aggressively, is excellent crashing the offensive boards and has an improving jump shot. At 235 pounds he's big enough to bang in the paint, but also quick enough to defend the perimeter. In other words, it's unlikely Simmons will be a one-hit wonder. While it's tough to believe his shooting percentage can remain that high, scouts claim he could easily be a 48- to 49-percent shooter over the course of his career.
His minutes and numbers might decline when Kittles is healthy, but the Clippers have realized Simmons is a big reason they've started the season 11-7. Now comes the tricky part – re-signing him next summer when he becomes a free agent.
The Clippers will have plenty of cap room, but will they use some of it on Simmons? Donald Sterling has a history of not wanting to pay for unproven players, and Simmons stands to get a hefty paycheck next summer. Simmons would love to return to the Midwest and, according to sources, both the Bulls and the Bucks have expressed interest.
Marko Jaric, G, Clippers
2003-04 Per Game: 30.3 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 4.8 apg, 1.6 spg.
2003-04 Per Minute: 40 mpg, 11.2 ppg, 6.4 apg.
2004-05 Stats: 35.7 mpg, 11.8 ppg, 6.7 apg, 2.2 spg.
The Skinny: He's the other reason the Clippers are 11-7. Jaric has looked fantastic this year. Both his minutes and averages are up just slightly from 2003, but he is having a much bigger impact on the court than he did last year.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]A superstar in Europe, Jaric finally is enjoying a breakout NBA season.[/font]Why? The 6-foot-7 Jaric is playing primarily point guard this season. Last year he spent time at both the two and three as well and was less effective. Even this season he started slowly when he was platooning at the point with rookie Shaun Livingston. But since Livingston went down with an injury on Nov. 21, Jaric has been awesome, averaging 14.1 ppg and 9.1 apg in 39.4 mpg. This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone who's followed Jaric's career. He was a superstar in Europe, playing for one of the top Euroleague teams in Bologna before heading to the Clippers in 2002. The Clippers weren't sure when they got him, however, whether he was cut out to be a point guard in the NBA. His size and relative lack of lateral quickness convinced them to give him just spot duty at the point. This year, though, with no viable options left, coach Mike Dunleavy has been forced to play him there full time, and the results have been impressive. The Clippers are 6-2 over that stretch.
How much longer it will last? The Clippers drafted Livingston as their point guard of the future and he, too, has shown flashes of brilliance. Once Livington returns in mid-January, the team likely will return to a two-man rotation at point. Jaric will also see spot duty at the two or three.
If Livingston pans out, good luck convincing Sterling to spend the cash on Jaric this summer when the veteran hits restricted free agency. A number of GMs covet him, and the chance to play point guard full time somewhere else might be too much of a lure.
Kyle Korver, F, Sixers
2003-04 Per Game: 11.9 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg on 35 percent shooting, 39 percent from 3
2003-04 Per Minute: 40 mpg, 15 ppg, 5 rpg.
2004-05 Stats: 31.4 mpg, 12.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg on 44 percent shooting, 41 percent from 3.
The Skinny: If you watched last year's All-Star game 3-point shootout, you knew Korver could shoot.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Sharpshooting Korver might be one-dimensional, but he has found his niche.[/font]But how did this NBA pretty boy turn into anything more than the guy you bring off the bench in the fourth quarter to knock down a game winning 3? The scouting report during the 2003 draft was that Korver had the quickest release and the purest jump shot of anyone in the draft. However, scouts were concerned he was too one-dimensional. He didn't rebound, wasn't a great passer and his defense was awful. Nothing on the scouting report has changed for Korver. He is one-dimensional. For example, 92 percent of the shots he takes are jumpers and 71 percent of the shots he takes are 3-pointers. What has changed is his head coach. Jim O'Brien is willing to live with the fact Korver doesn't rebound and can't defend, because he's the only guy on the team who can consistently drain a 3. With Allen Iverson constantly penetrating, the ability to kick out to guy like Korver is invaluable.
All of this talk about him getting better defensively might have a little bit of truth to it – but that's not why he's playing 30 minutes a night. Everyone else on that team defends better than Korver. He's there to shoot it – and he normally does that so well that Team USA will want to make sure it considers him for the 2008 Olympic Games. Makes you wonder what guys like Steve Kerr or Tim Legler would have done had their coaches played them 30 minutes a night and given them the green light to shoot at will.
Fred Jones, G, Pacers
2003-04 Per Game: 18.6 mpg, 4.9 ppg, 1.5 rpg on 39 percent shooting.
2003-04 Per Minute: 40 mpg, 10.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg.
2004-05 Stats: 36.1 mpg, 13.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg on 45 percent shooting.
The Skinny: What a difference not throwing a punch can make in someone's career. With Ron Artest and Stephen Jackson suspended for their roles in a Nov. 19 player-fan brawl in Detroit, Jones was transformed overnight. Instead of being a role player he is – at times – the Pacers' go-to scorer on the perimeter.
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Jones
Jones ventured into the stands and absorbed a couple of blows, but he restrained himself and ended up coming out of the ruckus smelling sweet. Jones responded in the Pacers' next game by scoring a career-high 31 points in 48 minutes. Since that night, he's been averaging 16.1 ppg for the Pacers and turning plenty of heads with his athletic play.
Jones' numbers actually exceed his per-minute stats by more than any one else on the list. Why? Because with so many players on the team injured or suspended, Jones is taking more shots per minute than he would normally. His improved field-goal percentage also helps a bit.
Like everyone else on this list, you have to ask yourself how long it will last? Jones is the only guy here who was drafted in the first round (though many believed the Pacers greatly overreached for him) and showed potential last season as a reserve.
But he's got several things working against him. First, his numbers already have started to decline since Reggie Miller returned. They'll slip again, big time, when Stephen Jackson returns from his suspension.
Second, at just 6-foot-3, Jones is undersized for his position. Jones makes up for some of that with an impressive wingspan, but that can't totally compensate for his stature. In a perfect world, Jones is a sparkplug off the bench, not a starter.
Once the Pacers' main guns return, expect him to slide right back into that role.
Maurice Williams, G, Bucks
2003-04 Per Game: 13.5 mpg, 5 ppg, 1.3 apg.
2003-04 Per Minute: 40 mpg, 14.7 ppg, 3.9 apg.
2004-05 Stats: 30.4 mpg, 9.3 ppg, 6.9 apg.
Skinny: Williams got three preseason breaks that contributed to his fast rise. First, the Bucks made him a free-agent offer last summer because they were uncertain when or if T.J. Ford was going to return from a spinal injury. Second, the Jazz surprisingly decided not to match the Bucks' $1.8 million offer despite the fact that the team liked him and had injury issues at point guard. Finally, the Bucks' other point guard, Mike James, also went down with an early injury.
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Williams
That put the onus on Williams, in just his second year out of Alabama, to run the team.
Given the minutes and zero safety net, Williams responded by averaging 7.4 apg in the month of November, ranking him sixth among all point guards in the league.
Williams appears to be another player scouts missed on. Almost every scout we talked to in 2003 thought Williams had the chance to be something special. He was putting up fantastic numbers at Alabama. However, the 2003 draft was stocked with point guards, and Williams didn't do enough to distinguish himself in workouts – something that's always hard for a traditional point guard.
Another year or two of college, and Williams might have been a mid first-rounder. Now he's the starting point guard for the Bucks and slowly making Ford an afterthought.
If Ford returns this season, he'll likely be worked into the lineup slowly with the goal of becoming a starter. As good as Williams is, Ford is better, especially at pushing the ball. Williams is under contract for two more years, however, meaning the Bucks own either a very solid point guard or valuable trade bait if Ford regains his health.
