Paul, Taft are scouts' early favorites for No. 1
Friday, December 3, 2004
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
With the NBA season in full swing, NBA scouts and personnel directors already are shifting their focus to the 2005 draft.
Their challenge is finding the next LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Andrei Kirilenko.
This year, scouts believe that the college class is one of the strongest ever. The international class doesn't have a clear No. 1, but there's a lot of depth. And the high school class? You might want to wait until next year, when Indiana big man Greg Oden is eligible for the draft.
While injuries, a strong season or the late discovery of an international sleeper can certainly change this group, the dozen or so NBA scouts and GMs Insider talked to all were in agreement on which prospects had a shot at the No. 1 pick.
There isn't a clear-cut No. 1 this year. But each of them, with patience and a few breaks down the road, has the potential to be an NBA superstar.
Here are the contenders:
COLLEGE
Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest
6-0, 170 (Sophomore)
13.5 ppg, 5.3 apg, 4.5 rpg, 2 spg on 40 percent shooting
The skinny: The last player under 6-foot-8 to be drafted as the No. 1 overall pick was Allen Iverson in 1996. Before him, you have to go all the way back to 1981 when the Mavs drafted Mark Aguirre. In other words, Paul faces a pretty steep climb against history if he's going to be No. 1.
So why does he top our list?
First, scouts believe that he is the best point guard prospect to come into the NBA since Jason Kidd. Not some of them. Everyone Insider talked to. It's easy to understand why scouts absolutely love him. He is T.J. Ford with a jumper. He's lightning quick, has unbelievable court vision, is a superb decision maker and shoots the lights out from the field and the three-point line. He pushes the ball relentlessly on offense and is already one of the best penetrators in the game. His defense is top notch as well. Teams wish Paul was stronger, but given his age they believe that will come.
Second, the Bobcats, a team that has as good of a shot at winning the No. 1 pick as anyone else, love him. If the Bobcats get the No. 1 pick, sources in Charlotte have told Insider that they will pick Paul. GM/Coach Bernie Bickerstaff needs a young point guard and believes that Paul is the perfect fit for the team that he's trying to build. The fact that he's a local, and very popular in North Carolina, probably doesn't hurt him, either.
Still, you have to wonder whether Paul can he live up the hype. With those lofty standards set for him, how will he respond? So far Paul is off to a so-so start for Wake. He has a large target on his chest and that means that opposing coaches, defenders and scouts are constantly working on breaking down his game.
Paul continues to claim that he's returning to Wake for his junior season, regardless of what the draft buzz is surrounding him. If he continues to struggle, some scouts might cool on him a little, making that decision a little easier. But there's a large contingent of NBA people who are convinced he has what it takes to be a superstar in the league – whether he plays well this year or not.
Chris Taft, PF, Pittsburgh
6-10, 230 (Sophomore)
12.3 ppg, 6 rpg, 50 percent shooting
The skinny: Taft, over the summer, moved into a dead heat with Paul as a favorite for the No. 1. He definitely fits the more traditional bill.
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Like Paul, Pitt's Taft is off to a so-so start thus far. But he remains high on NBA wish lists.[/font]
Taft has the rare combination of size, athleticism, strength and power that NBA scouts covet in a good power forward. And unlike many players who possess those abilities, Taft prefers to score with his back to the basket. His footwork is sound and he's patient in the paint always working for a good shot.
Taft, too, has enjoyed his share of hype this summer. And he, too, has struggled a bit to live up to it. Despite his superior strength and athleticism, he's been just an average rebounder and shot blocker this season.
However, he's also the only American big man with the talent to justify a No. 1 selection. In other words, he could end up on top by default, the way so many big men before him have.
Marvin Williams, F, North Carolina
6-9, 240 (Freshman)
8.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 38 percent shooting
The skinny: Williams flirted with declaring for the 2004 draft. Had he done so, he would havebeen a likely lottery pick. Several NBA scouts had him rated as the second-best high school player in the country behind only Dwight Howard.
Adding a year playing for Roy Williams at North Carolina should only help his stock.
Williams has a great NBA body, top-notch athleticism and the ability to play just about anywhere on the court. He's got one of the most-developed inside/outside games of anyone his size. He played point forward for his high school team for much of the year, but was also the team's best rebounder, shot blocker and low post scorer. Scouts claim that he's a great, unselfish kid who adapts his game to the circumstances around him.
At North Carolina, he's playing primarily at the four and putting up impressive rebounding numbers given the minutes he's playing. Regardless of whether Williams increases his minutes, he'll be a legit contender for a pick in the Top 5. If he turns into a superstar this year, No. 1 overall isn't out of the question.
Rudy Gay, F, Connecticut
6-9, 220, (Freshman)
10 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 45 percent shooting
The skinny: Gay, unlike most of his peers, never seriously considered going pro last season. There's a pretty serious internal debate between scouts concerning whether Gay is actually a better prospect than Williams.
He has great size for a small forward. He is an above-average athlete with serious hops. He's also deceptively strong. He does just about everything well. He can slash to the basket, pull up for the mid-range jumper, beat up a defender in the post and make the perfect pass. If his ball handling was just a little bit better, there wouldn't be anything not to like. Scouts also claim he's a great kid with a tireless work ethic.
He's been very productive in UConn's first two games, though it remains to be seen how much Jim Calhoun will actually use him this year. If Gay breaks out, he'll challenge all three of the players above for the top spot. However, the chances are good that Calhoun will limit his minutes. If that happens, Gay might have to wait until 2006 to enter the draft.
INTERNATIONAL
Martynas Andriuskevicius, F,C, Lithuania
7-3, 240, (19 years old)
1.2 ppg, 1.2 rpg in 8 mpg The skinny: Andriuskevicius declared for the 2004 draft but withdrew when he couldn't get a Top 5 commitment from a team. However, he wasn't far off that quest. The Suns, who had the No. 7 pick, seriously were considering taking him and leaving him in Europe before he pulled out of the draft.
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Andriuskevicius is 7-foot-3 and owns a deadly-accurate three-point shot.[/font]
This year the chances are high that he declares for the draft and sticks with it. Scouts almost uniformly claim he's a lock for the Top 5.
Andriuskevicius has great hands, is a fantastic passer and doesn't shy away from contact despite his thin frame. He's got great quickness for his size and is capable of playing both inside and outside. The fact that he's being tutored daily by Arvydas Sabonis is evident.
Right now, Andriuskevicius is much more comfortable playing as a finesse four. At the Reebok Eurocamp last June, he showed excellent court vision and made a number of picture-perfect passes off the dribble to driving big men. He has great court instincts and always seemed to know when and how to make the right play. The game comes easy to him. He ran the floor as well as anyone in the camp and showed impressive athleticism for a guy his size. He also has a stellar perimeter shot. He shot 15-for-25 from the international 3-point line and has the ability to shoot off the dribble. Eventually he may make the move to the five, but right now his body is still too weak to hold position in the paint.
"I saw Dirk [Nowitzki] when he was 18, and I'm not sure he was as comfortable with the ball as this kid is," Mavs president Donnie Nelson told Insider in May. "I think his true position in the pros is at forward. He's really talented."
Andriuskevicius looked solid this summer at the European Under-18 Championships in Zaragoza. He averaged 16.9 ppg and 13.4 rpg there but didn't exactly dominate.
"His skill set is fantastic, but he disappears from games," one NBA scout said. "If things get physical, he doesn't always fight for it. That will come with time. Another year playing with Arvydas Sabonis is really going to help this kid."
With Sabonis injured right now, Andriuskevicius is actually seeing some playing time in Euroleague play this year. While his numbers certainly don't suggest greatness yet, the extra year playing at a top level and practicing with Sabonis should pay off if he can remain healthy.
Nemanja Alekandrov, F, Serbia
6-10, 210, (17 years old)
6.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg in 18 mpg
The skinny: He's been projected all year as a contender for the No. 1 overall pick since the summer of 2003. However, his stock took a series of hits this summer that he's yet to totally recover from.
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Serbia's Nemanja Aleksandrov has a shot at being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 draft.[/font]
Aleksandrov played to mixed reviews at Reebok Eurocamp in June and the Under 18 Championships in Zaragoza this summer. In both tournaments, he struggled with his perimeter shot and looked passive much of the time.
He's obviously one of the most skilled big men you'll ever find at his age. He has a very good three-point shot, good athleticism (though just a 24-inch vertical), a great handle and great feet in the paint. During the 5-on-5 tournament, he put several moves on in the paint that were reminiscent of Kevin Garnett. He's quick and a real match up problem on offense.
The issue with Aleksandrov is heart. He often coasts in games, doesn't always defend and will disappear for large chunks of the game. He seems to be able to turn it on and off at will, but that's a scary attribute in a top prospect like this.
"He's got unbelievable talent," one NBA scout told Insider. "But you can't change who you are. He's laid back. He doesn't play hard. I think that's impossible to teach. Someone will grab him because of his size and skills. But I think they'll walk away from the experience three years later with their heart broken."
That fact is starting to scare away the same scouts that boldly predicted last year that he'd be the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. Still, no one is ready to write him off, either.
"From a skill standpoint, he's probably the most skilled 17-year-old big guy I've ever seen," one NBA international scout told Insider. "He has Toni Kukoc-like skills. His issues are well known. He doesn't play with a lot of passion. He doesn't seem to have a killer instinct. But we've got to keep reminding ourselves that he's just 17.
"He had a huge target on his chest this summer. Everyone was trying to shut him down. He still managed to put up pretty good numbers and was effective in the paint. I just think people expected him to improve dramatically the past year, and he didn't. But that may say more about the situation he's in than his talent. In my mind, he's still one of the top five or six prospects for next year."
We'll see. No one denies the talent. But NBA GMs have tired of fundamentally-sound Europeans who look great in workouts and struggle in actual games. Aleksandrov might not fit into that category, but as the backlash grows more severe, he might suffer from it anyway.
HIGH SCHOOL
After the ABCD camp in New Jersey, the Nike camp in Indianapolis and the adidas camp in Atlanta, followed by several big AAU events like the Big Time in Las Vegas, scouts remain as enamored as ever with the American high school crop – just not this year's.
Greg Oden, who is starting his junior year this fall and O.J. Mayo, who is ready to begin his sophomore year, both look like sure-fire picks at the top of the draft in 2006 and 2007. This year & it's pretty ugly.
Scouts have been predicting NBA doom for this class all year, but all of them hoped a player or two would emerge from the summer play. While several caught their eyes, no one in the class is close to being a sure fire lottery pick – let alone No. 1.
"This is the worst high school class I've ever seen," one veteran NBA scout claimed. "There are a lot of kids in it who will help their college teams. But NBA teams? I'm not sure that even after four years of college most of these kids will be ready for the NBA. It's awful."
Depending on who you ask Louis Williams, a lightning quick 6-2 shooting guard from Georgia, Andray Blatche, a 6-11 power forward playing prep ball in Connecticut, and Gerald Green, a lanky swingman in the image of Tracy McGrady, are the three players scouts are watching closely.
Still, this should be the first year since 1998 that a high school kid doesn't crack the Top 10.
DRAFT CARDS
<LI>Several NBA scouts are quietly saying that Washington's Nate Robinson is their favorite basketball player in college basketball. When you look at his numbers – 21.6 ppg, 5.9 apg, 4.2 rpg on 57 percent shooting and 54 percent from three – it's kind of tough to argue. Right?
So why isn't Robinson on our list of potential No. 1 overall picks? Size matters in the NBA and Robinson stands 5-foot-9 in shoes (according to official measurements at the 2004 Chicago pre-draft camp). The fact that he isn't even a point guard also doesn't help matters.
Still, that hasn't stopped scouts from drooling over the possibility of adding Robinson late in the first round.
"He's the best finisher in college basketball," one NBA scout gushed. "He's almost impossible to guard."
Robinson put up impressive numbers last season too. He was one of the better players at the Chicago pre-draft camp averaging 11.7 ppg and ranking second in the camp in assists. In fact, he ranked No. 1 among all the players in the camp in athletic testing. He measured a 43.5 inch vertical and ran the ¾ court sprint in 2.96 seconds, a Chicago record. However, he couldn't convince one team to give him a promise in the first round so he went back to school. That sounds like it's going to change this year.
"I'm not sure where he will go in the draft, but don't forget the 'wow' factor here," an NBA exec told Insider. "Every time he touches the ball, everyone holds their breath. He can sell tickets. Fans react to him. I think he's going to go much earlier than people think. If he's a mid-first rounder I wouldn't be surprised.
This year's Euro sleeper looks like it will be the Spanish league's Francisco Vazquez. The 6-foot-10, 230 pound forward is getting regular minutes for Malaga and is averaging 7.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg in 20 mpg in Euroleague play.
Just about everyone in the league has been over to Europe to watch him play, including Larry Bird and Jerry West.
The scouting report on Vazquez reads as follows: He's an athletic, bouncy big man with great hands and some refined moves around the basket. What he lacks in physical strength he makes up for in energy and hustle.
The 21-year-old forward has played well enough that almost every scout agrees that he'll be a mid-to-late first round selection. But watch him closely this year. Several scouts claim he could rise if he keeps producing for Malaga this season.
Chris Paul's status as the best point guard in the country is no longer a secret. But here's one you haven't been hearing. More and more scouts are claiming that the next best point guard on the board is Illinois' Deron Williams. Twenty NBA GMs and scouts watched Williams outplay Paul and the Demon Deacons on Wednesday. Williams finished the game with 8 points and 11 assists. Overall, Williams is averaging 13.6 ppg, 7.4 apg on 46 percent shooting this season.
[font=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]“[/font][font=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]Deron is a lot like Kidd in the half court. They play the same way. They're both straight-line guys. Once he gets his hip on you, he's gone. Deron's not as fast as Kidd in the open court, but Deron can shoot. Jason can't.[/font][font=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif] ”[/font][font=Times,serif]— [/font][font=Times,serif]One NBA scout, telling ESPN Insider how Illinois G Deron Williams compares to All-Star G Jason Kidd[/font]
Williams, a 6-foot-3, 210 pound junior, made the most of his opportunity as a counselor in Michael Jordan's camp last summer. Scouts who saw him play there said he improved dramatically by playing against the best point guards in the country and a handful of NBA veterans.
While Paul is getting tagged as the best point guard prospect since Kidd, Williams is getting the rep as the player whose style and body most resemble Kidd's.
"Deron is a lot like Kidd in the half court," one NBA scout said. "They play the same way. They're both straight-line guys. Once he gets his hip on you, he's gone. Deron's not as fast as Kidd in the open court, but Deron can shoot. Jason can't."
The irony of Williams' ascension is that head coach Bruce Weber believes that Luther Head, another 6-foot-3 point guard, is the best guard on his team. "Luther has been maybe our best guard, and people don't even realize it," Weber said Wednesday.
Head, a senior from Chicago, is averaging 17.2 ppg and 6.8 apg for the Illini. He, too, is a great athlete with excellent floor vision and legit three-point range. Scouts have been traditionally a little down on Head because of his inability to shoot off the dribble, but he seems to have worked on that over the summer break and is getting serious interest from scouts as well.
<LI>Speaking of point guards, Partizan's Uros Tripkovic is sure turning some heads in Europe. The 19-year-old combo guard has been great all summer in the various youth tournaments but he's really making an impression now that he's playing big minutes for Partizan in both the Adriatic and Euroleague.
Tripkovic is averaging 13.3 ppg on 52 percent field-goal shooting in the Adriatic league. He's also averaging 6.2 ppg in 22 mpg in the Euroleague.
Insider spotted the lanky 6-foot-6 guard for the first time when we traveled to Serbia in the winter of 2002. The Partizan team literally hid him from Pistons scout Tony Ronzone and I when they allowed us into practice. Here's an edited version of how it went down.
Memphis swingman Rodney Carney is off to a great start averaging 21.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 44-percent field-goal shooting for the season.
The 6-foot-7 junior is the son of two track stars. Carney himself was the Indiana state champ in the high jump as a high school senior. Head coach John Calipari calls him one of the best five athletes in the country & something you know will turn heads in the NBA.
"Just on DNA you've got to love him," one NBA scout told Insider. "Both parents are track stars. He may be the best athlete in college basketball. On an up-tempo team he'd be really good. He's also improved his shooting in the mid-range game, which is why he's having such a big year."
So why hasn't he gotten the publicity of fellow teammate Sean Banks?
"He goes through huge spans where he disappears. He doesn't create his own shot. If he did, he'd be a lock for the lottery."
Look for Carney to get consideration there anyway if he continues to play well. With his size, length, speed, jumping ability and three-point shooting ability, he appears to be the protypical NBA small forward.
<LI>It seems Utah big man Andrew Bogut is back in favor with NBA scouts.
The Australian burst onto the scene at the World Junior Championships in Greece in 2003, when he led Australia to a gold medal over the Americans (and averaged 26.3 ppg and 17 rpg). At the time, some scouts predicted he'd be a lock for the lottery. However, a good but not great freshmen season at Utah caused his stock to slide a bit.
Bogut actually wanted to turn pro last summer, but when the Ute staff did some research, they discovered no team was serious about taking him in the first round anymore.
That has changed. Bogut was great for Australia in the Olympics. He scored 22 points and grabbed 18 rebounds in a victory over Team USA. Most of that time Tim Duncan was guarding him.
His early play for the Utes this season has him turning heads again. He's averaging 17.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg on 62-percent shooting.
The 6-10, 245-pound Bogut does a little bit of everything. Bogut is an excellent, physical rebounder with nice hands. He's a tremendous passer for a big man and averages a couple of assists per game in international play. He's very difficult to guard because of his ability to score in both the high and low post. Overall, he just has an excellent feel for the game.
He's not as athletic as scouts would like, but one NBA executive sees similarities between Bogut and one highly successful, unathletic NBA big man.
"He's a young Vlade Divac," one NBA exec said. "He passes like him, shoots like him, is slow like him. He's tailor-made for the NBA. I'd be stunned is he goes any later than 12 (overall) in the draft."
<LI>Spanish point guard Sergio Rodriguez was the star of the Under 18 Championships in Zaragoza, Spain this summer. He looked like a little John Stockton out there, running the offense to perfection and hitting an impressive 50 percent from the three-point line. He's played well enough that scouts are now claiming he'd be one of the first international players taken in 2005, if he declared for the draft. Several sources told Insider that Rodriguez will not declare for the draft this year, however, because of contract issues with his team. Instead, look for him to make a big splash in the 2006 draft.
Friday, December 3, 2004
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
With the NBA season in full swing, NBA scouts and personnel directors already are shifting their focus to the 2005 draft.
Their challenge is finding the next LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Andrei Kirilenko.
This year, scouts believe that the college class is one of the strongest ever. The international class doesn't have a clear No. 1, but there's a lot of depth. And the high school class? You might want to wait until next year, when Indiana big man Greg Oden is eligible for the draft.
While injuries, a strong season or the late discovery of an international sleeper can certainly change this group, the dozen or so NBA scouts and GMs Insider talked to all were in agreement on which prospects had a shot at the No. 1 pick.
There isn't a clear-cut No. 1 this year. But each of them, with patience and a few breaks down the road, has the potential to be an NBA superstar.
Here are the contenders:
COLLEGE
Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest
6-0, 170 (Sophomore)
13.5 ppg, 5.3 apg, 4.5 rpg, 2 spg on 40 percent shooting
The skinny: The last player under 6-foot-8 to be drafted as the No. 1 overall pick was Allen Iverson in 1996. Before him, you have to go all the way back to 1981 when the Mavs drafted Mark Aguirre. In other words, Paul faces a pretty steep climb against history if he's going to be No. 1.
So why does he top our list?
First, scouts believe that he is the best point guard prospect to come into the NBA since Jason Kidd. Not some of them. Everyone Insider talked to. It's easy to understand why scouts absolutely love him. He is T.J. Ford with a jumper. He's lightning quick, has unbelievable court vision, is a superb decision maker and shoots the lights out from the field and the three-point line. He pushes the ball relentlessly on offense and is already one of the best penetrators in the game. His defense is top notch as well. Teams wish Paul was stronger, but given his age they believe that will come.
Second, the Bobcats, a team that has as good of a shot at winning the No. 1 pick as anyone else, love him. If the Bobcats get the No. 1 pick, sources in Charlotte have told Insider that they will pick Paul. GM/Coach Bernie Bickerstaff needs a young point guard and believes that Paul is the perfect fit for the team that he's trying to build. The fact that he's a local, and very popular in North Carolina, probably doesn't hurt him, either.
Still, you have to wonder whether Paul can he live up the hype. With those lofty standards set for him, how will he respond? So far Paul is off to a so-so start for Wake. He has a large target on his chest and that means that opposing coaches, defenders and scouts are constantly working on breaking down his game.
Paul continues to claim that he's returning to Wake for his junior season, regardless of what the draft buzz is surrounding him. If he continues to struggle, some scouts might cool on him a little, making that decision a little easier. But there's a large contingent of NBA people who are convinced he has what it takes to be a superstar in the league – whether he plays well this year or not.
Chris Taft, PF, Pittsburgh
6-10, 230 (Sophomore)
12.3 ppg, 6 rpg, 50 percent shooting
The skinny: Taft, over the summer, moved into a dead heat with Paul as a favorite for the No. 1. He definitely fits the more traditional bill.
You must be registered for see images
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Like Paul, Pitt's Taft is off to a so-so start thus far. But he remains high on NBA wish lists.[/font]
Taft has the rare combination of size, athleticism, strength and power that NBA scouts covet in a good power forward. And unlike many players who possess those abilities, Taft prefers to score with his back to the basket. His footwork is sound and he's patient in the paint always working for a good shot.
Taft, too, has enjoyed his share of hype this summer. And he, too, has struggled a bit to live up to it. Despite his superior strength and athleticism, he's been just an average rebounder and shot blocker this season.
However, he's also the only American big man with the talent to justify a No. 1 selection. In other words, he could end up on top by default, the way so many big men before him have.
Marvin Williams, F, North Carolina
6-9, 240 (Freshman)
8.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 38 percent shooting
The skinny: Williams flirted with declaring for the 2004 draft. Had he done so, he would havebeen a likely lottery pick. Several NBA scouts had him rated as the second-best high school player in the country behind only Dwight Howard.
Adding a year playing for Roy Williams at North Carolina should only help his stock.
Williams has a great NBA body, top-notch athleticism and the ability to play just about anywhere on the court. He's got one of the most-developed inside/outside games of anyone his size. He played point forward for his high school team for much of the year, but was also the team's best rebounder, shot blocker and low post scorer. Scouts claim that he's a great, unselfish kid who adapts his game to the circumstances around him.
At North Carolina, he's playing primarily at the four and putting up impressive rebounding numbers given the minutes he's playing. Regardless of whether Williams increases his minutes, he'll be a legit contender for a pick in the Top 5. If he turns into a superstar this year, No. 1 overall isn't out of the question.
Rudy Gay, F, Connecticut
6-9, 220, (Freshman)
10 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 45 percent shooting
The skinny: Gay, unlike most of his peers, never seriously considered going pro last season. There's a pretty serious internal debate between scouts concerning whether Gay is actually a better prospect than Williams.
He has great size for a small forward. He is an above-average athlete with serious hops. He's also deceptively strong. He does just about everything well. He can slash to the basket, pull up for the mid-range jumper, beat up a defender in the post and make the perfect pass. If his ball handling was just a little bit better, there wouldn't be anything not to like. Scouts also claim he's a great kid with a tireless work ethic.
He's been very productive in UConn's first two games, though it remains to be seen how much Jim Calhoun will actually use him this year. If Gay breaks out, he'll challenge all three of the players above for the top spot. However, the chances are good that Calhoun will limit his minutes. If that happens, Gay might have to wait until 2006 to enter the draft.
INTERNATIONAL
Martynas Andriuskevicius, F,C, Lithuania
7-3, 240, (19 years old)
1.2 ppg, 1.2 rpg in 8 mpg The skinny: Andriuskevicius declared for the 2004 draft but withdrew when he couldn't get a Top 5 commitment from a team. However, he wasn't far off that quest. The Suns, who had the No. 7 pick, seriously were considering taking him and leaving him in Europe before he pulled out of the draft.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Andriuskevicius is 7-foot-3 and owns a deadly-accurate three-point shot.[/font]
This year the chances are high that he declares for the draft and sticks with it. Scouts almost uniformly claim he's a lock for the Top 5.
Andriuskevicius has great hands, is a fantastic passer and doesn't shy away from contact despite his thin frame. He's got great quickness for his size and is capable of playing both inside and outside. The fact that he's being tutored daily by Arvydas Sabonis is evident.
Right now, Andriuskevicius is much more comfortable playing as a finesse four. At the Reebok Eurocamp last June, he showed excellent court vision and made a number of picture-perfect passes off the dribble to driving big men. He has great court instincts and always seemed to know when and how to make the right play. The game comes easy to him. He ran the floor as well as anyone in the camp and showed impressive athleticism for a guy his size. He also has a stellar perimeter shot. He shot 15-for-25 from the international 3-point line and has the ability to shoot off the dribble. Eventually he may make the move to the five, but right now his body is still too weak to hold position in the paint.
"I saw Dirk [Nowitzki] when he was 18, and I'm not sure he was as comfortable with the ball as this kid is," Mavs president Donnie Nelson told Insider in May. "I think his true position in the pros is at forward. He's really talented."
Andriuskevicius looked solid this summer at the European Under-18 Championships in Zaragoza. He averaged 16.9 ppg and 13.4 rpg there but didn't exactly dominate.
"His skill set is fantastic, but he disappears from games," one NBA scout said. "If things get physical, he doesn't always fight for it. That will come with time. Another year playing with Arvydas Sabonis is really going to help this kid."
With Sabonis injured right now, Andriuskevicius is actually seeing some playing time in Euroleague play this year. While his numbers certainly don't suggest greatness yet, the extra year playing at a top level and practicing with Sabonis should pay off if he can remain healthy.
Nemanja Alekandrov, F, Serbia
6-10, 210, (17 years old)
6.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg in 18 mpg
The skinny: He's been projected all year as a contender for the No. 1 overall pick since the summer of 2003. However, his stock took a series of hits this summer that he's yet to totally recover from.
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[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Serbia's Nemanja Aleksandrov has a shot at being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 draft.[/font]
Aleksandrov played to mixed reviews at Reebok Eurocamp in June and the Under 18 Championships in Zaragoza this summer. In both tournaments, he struggled with his perimeter shot and looked passive much of the time.
He's obviously one of the most skilled big men you'll ever find at his age. He has a very good three-point shot, good athleticism (though just a 24-inch vertical), a great handle and great feet in the paint. During the 5-on-5 tournament, he put several moves on in the paint that were reminiscent of Kevin Garnett. He's quick and a real match up problem on offense.
The issue with Aleksandrov is heart. He often coasts in games, doesn't always defend and will disappear for large chunks of the game. He seems to be able to turn it on and off at will, but that's a scary attribute in a top prospect like this.
"He's got unbelievable talent," one NBA scout told Insider. "But you can't change who you are. He's laid back. He doesn't play hard. I think that's impossible to teach. Someone will grab him because of his size and skills. But I think they'll walk away from the experience three years later with their heart broken."
That fact is starting to scare away the same scouts that boldly predicted last year that he'd be the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. Still, no one is ready to write him off, either.
"From a skill standpoint, he's probably the most skilled 17-year-old big guy I've ever seen," one NBA international scout told Insider. "He has Toni Kukoc-like skills. His issues are well known. He doesn't play with a lot of passion. He doesn't seem to have a killer instinct. But we've got to keep reminding ourselves that he's just 17.
"He had a huge target on his chest this summer. Everyone was trying to shut him down. He still managed to put up pretty good numbers and was effective in the paint. I just think people expected him to improve dramatically the past year, and he didn't. But that may say more about the situation he's in than his talent. In my mind, he's still one of the top five or six prospects for next year."
We'll see. No one denies the talent. But NBA GMs have tired of fundamentally-sound Europeans who look great in workouts and struggle in actual games. Aleksandrov might not fit into that category, but as the backlash grows more severe, he might suffer from it anyway.
HIGH SCHOOL
After the ABCD camp in New Jersey, the Nike camp in Indianapolis and the adidas camp in Atlanta, followed by several big AAU events like the Big Time in Las Vegas, scouts remain as enamored as ever with the American high school crop – just not this year's.
Greg Oden, who is starting his junior year this fall and O.J. Mayo, who is ready to begin his sophomore year, both look like sure-fire picks at the top of the draft in 2006 and 2007. This year & it's pretty ugly.
Scouts have been predicting NBA doom for this class all year, but all of them hoped a player or two would emerge from the summer play. While several caught their eyes, no one in the class is close to being a sure fire lottery pick – let alone No. 1.
"This is the worst high school class I've ever seen," one veteran NBA scout claimed. "There are a lot of kids in it who will help their college teams. But NBA teams? I'm not sure that even after four years of college most of these kids will be ready for the NBA. It's awful."
Depending on who you ask Louis Williams, a lightning quick 6-2 shooting guard from Georgia, Andray Blatche, a 6-11 power forward playing prep ball in Connecticut, and Gerald Green, a lanky swingman in the image of Tracy McGrady, are the three players scouts are watching closely.
Still, this should be the first year since 1998 that a high school kid doesn't crack the Top 10.
DRAFT CARDS
<LI>Several NBA scouts are quietly saying that Washington's Nate Robinson is their favorite basketball player in college basketball. When you look at his numbers – 21.6 ppg, 5.9 apg, 4.2 rpg on 57 percent shooting and 54 percent from three – it's kind of tough to argue. Right?
So why isn't Robinson on our list of potential No. 1 overall picks? Size matters in the NBA and Robinson stands 5-foot-9 in shoes (according to official measurements at the 2004 Chicago pre-draft camp). The fact that he isn't even a point guard also doesn't help matters.
Still, that hasn't stopped scouts from drooling over the possibility of adding Robinson late in the first round.
"He's the best finisher in college basketball," one NBA scout gushed. "He's almost impossible to guard."
Robinson put up impressive numbers last season too. He was one of the better players at the Chicago pre-draft camp averaging 11.7 ppg and ranking second in the camp in assists. In fact, he ranked No. 1 among all the players in the camp in athletic testing. He measured a 43.5 inch vertical and ran the ¾ court sprint in 2.96 seconds, a Chicago record. However, he couldn't convince one team to give him a promise in the first round so he went back to school. That sounds like it's going to change this year.
"I'm not sure where he will go in the draft, but don't forget the 'wow' factor here," an NBA exec told Insider. "Every time he touches the ball, everyone holds their breath. He can sell tickets. Fans react to him. I think he's going to go much earlier than people think. If he's a mid-first rounder I wouldn't be surprised.
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This year's Euro sleeper looks like it will be the Spanish league's Francisco Vazquez. The 6-foot-10, 230 pound forward is getting regular minutes for Malaga and is averaging 7.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg in 20 mpg in Euroleague play.
Just about everyone in the league has been over to Europe to watch him play, including Larry Bird and Jerry West.
The scouting report on Vazquez reads as follows: He's an athletic, bouncy big man with great hands and some refined moves around the basket. What he lacks in physical strength he makes up for in energy and hustle.
The 21-year-old forward has played well enough that almost every scout agrees that he'll be a mid-to-late first round selection. But watch him closely this year. Several scouts claim he could rise if he keeps producing for Malaga this season.
Chris Paul's status as the best point guard in the country is no longer a secret. But here's one you haven't been hearing. More and more scouts are claiming that the next best point guard on the board is Illinois' Deron Williams. Twenty NBA GMs and scouts watched Williams outplay Paul and the Demon Deacons on Wednesday. Williams finished the game with 8 points and 11 assists. Overall, Williams is averaging 13.6 ppg, 7.4 apg on 46 percent shooting this season.
[font=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]“[/font][font=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]Deron is a lot like Kidd in the half court. They play the same way. They're both straight-line guys. Once he gets his hip on you, he's gone. Deron's not as fast as Kidd in the open court, but Deron can shoot. Jason can't.[/font][font=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif] ”[/font][font=Times,serif]— [/font][font=Times,serif]One NBA scout, telling ESPN Insider how Illinois G Deron Williams compares to All-Star G Jason Kidd[/font]
Williams, a 6-foot-3, 210 pound junior, made the most of his opportunity as a counselor in Michael Jordan's camp last summer. Scouts who saw him play there said he improved dramatically by playing against the best point guards in the country and a handful of NBA veterans.
While Paul is getting tagged as the best point guard prospect since Kidd, Williams is getting the rep as the player whose style and body most resemble Kidd's.
"Deron is a lot like Kidd in the half court," one NBA scout said. "They play the same way. They're both straight-line guys. Once he gets his hip on you, he's gone. Deron's not as fast as Kidd in the open court, but Deron can shoot. Jason can't."
The irony of Williams' ascension is that head coach Bruce Weber believes that Luther Head, another 6-foot-3 point guard, is the best guard on his team. "Luther has been maybe our best guard, and people don't even realize it," Weber said Wednesday.
Head, a senior from Chicago, is averaging 17.2 ppg and 6.8 apg for the Illini. He, too, is a great athlete with excellent floor vision and legit three-point range. Scouts have been traditionally a little down on Head because of his inability to shoot off the dribble, but he seems to have worked on that over the summer break and is getting serious interest from scouts as well.
<LI>Speaking of point guards, Partizan's Uros Tripkovic is sure turning some heads in Europe. The 19-year-old combo guard has been great all summer in the various youth tournaments but he's really making an impression now that he's playing big minutes for Partizan in both the Adriatic and Euroleague.
Tripkovic is averaging 13.3 ppg on 52 percent field-goal shooting in the Adriatic league. He's also averaging 6.2 ppg in 22 mpg in the Euroleague.
Insider spotted the lanky 6-foot-6 guard for the first time when we traveled to Serbia in the winter of 2002. The Partizan team literally hid him from Pistons scout Tony Ronzone and I when they allowed us into practice. Here's an edited version of how it went down.
December 18, 2002 -- 10:45 a.m. Ronzone notices the court is partitioned and hears balls bouncing on the other side. We casually walk over and peek behind the curtain.
Bingo.
On the other side of the gym, working alone with another assistant coach is Uros Tripkovic, a 16-year-old, 6-foot-6 point guard who already is being prepped to take over the team once star point guard Milos Vujanic leaves for the NBA at the end of the season.
Ronzone and I sit down quietly at the end of the bench and hope we aren't noticed. On the far court I'm watching Tripkovic catch and shoot on the perimeter. He has made 12 consecutive 3-pointers from different spots on the floor.
"This just got interesting," Tony says. Five minutes into the workout, an assistant coach spots us from across the gym and begins heading toward us. A friend of Ronzone's is also in the gym and he walks toward the coach in an attempt to intervene. There is a heated discussion and Ronzone's friend tells us we have to leave. "Doesn't matter," Ronzone whispers to me as we walk out of the gym. "I saw everything I needed to see."
Bingo.
On the other side of the gym, working alone with another assistant coach is Uros Tripkovic, a 16-year-old, 6-foot-6 point guard who already is being prepped to take over the team once star point guard Milos Vujanic leaves for the NBA at the end of the season.
Ronzone and I sit down quietly at the end of the bench and hope we aren't noticed. On the far court I'm watching Tripkovic catch and shoot on the perimeter. He has made 12 consecutive 3-pointers from different spots on the floor.
"This just got interesting," Tony says. Five minutes into the workout, an assistant coach spots us from across the gym and begins heading toward us. A friend of Ronzone's is also in the gym and he walks toward the coach in an attempt to intervene. There is a heated discussion and Ronzone's friend tells us we have to leave. "Doesn't matter," Ronzone whispers to me as we walk out of the gym. "I saw everything I needed to see."
Memphis swingman Rodney Carney is off to a great start averaging 21.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 44-percent field-goal shooting for the season.
The 6-foot-7 junior is the son of two track stars. Carney himself was the Indiana state champ in the high jump as a high school senior. Head coach John Calipari calls him one of the best five athletes in the country & something you know will turn heads in the NBA.
"Just on DNA you've got to love him," one NBA scout told Insider. "Both parents are track stars. He may be the best athlete in college basketball. On an up-tempo team he'd be really good. He's also improved his shooting in the mid-range game, which is why he's having such a big year."
So why hasn't he gotten the publicity of fellow teammate Sean Banks?
"He goes through huge spans where he disappears. He doesn't create his own shot. If he did, he'd be a lock for the lottery."
Look for Carney to get consideration there anyway if he continues to play well. With his size, length, speed, jumping ability and three-point shooting ability, he appears to be the protypical NBA small forward.
<LI>It seems Utah big man Andrew Bogut is back in favor with NBA scouts.
The Australian burst onto the scene at the World Junior Championships in Greece in 2003, when he led Australia to a gold medal over the Americans (and averaged 26.3 ppg and 17 rpg). At the time, some scouts predicted he'd be a lock for the lottery. However, a good but not great freshmen season at Utah caused his stock to slide a bit.
Bogut actually wanted to turn pro last summer, but when the Ute staff did some research, they discovered no team was serious about taking him in the first round anymore.
That has changed. Bogut was great for Australia in the Olympics. He scored 22 points and grabbed 18 rebounds in a victory over Team USA. Most of that time Tim Duncan was guarding him.
His early play for the Utes this season has him turning heads again. He's averaging 17.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg on 62-percent shooting.
The 6-10, 245-pound Bogut does a little bit of everything. Bogut is an excellent, physical rebounder with nice hands. He's a tremendous passer for a big man and averages a couple of assists per game in international play. He's very difficult to guard because of his ability to score in both the high and low post. Overall, he just has an excellent feel for the game.
He's not as athletic as scouts would like, but one NBA executive sees similarities between Bogut and one highly successful, unathletic NBA big man.
"He's a young Vlade Divac," one NBA exec said. "He passes like him, shoots like him, is slow like him. He's tailor-made for the NBA. I'd be stunned is he goes any later than 12 (overall) in the draft."
<LI>Spanish point guard Sergio Rodriguez was the star of the Under 18 Championships in Zaragoza, Spain this summer. He looked like a little John Stockton out there, running the offense to perfection and hitting an impressive 50 percent from the three-point line. He's played well enough that scouts are now claiming he'd be one of the first international players taken in 2005, if he declared for the draft. Several sources told Insider that Rodriguez will not declare for the draft this year, however, because of contract issues with his team. Instead, look for him to make a big splash in the 2006 draft.
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