sunsfn 3/14/2005 report # 2

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Updated: Mar. 14, 2005, 2:33 PM ET
UConn connection fulfilling promise
http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/index
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/archive?columnist=ford_chad&root=nba
By Chad Ford, ESPN Insider
Chad Ford Archive







<LI>Chat Wrap: Chad FordMarch Madness is the time of year when national championships are won -- and NBA stars are made.

Last year, a number of the NBA's top rookies were battling it out at the Big Dance. One year later, a number of them appear to be on track for NBA stardom. The 2004 NBA draft is starting to look like one of the deepest ever.

It shouldn't come as any surprise that four of the five best rookies in the NBA had big NCAA Tournaments. Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon, the two leading candidates for Rookie of the Year, won a national championship together.

Gordon averaged 21.2 ppg in the tournament, and Okafor, playing with a bad back, averaged 13.5 ppg, 11.3 rpg and 2.2 bpg.

Luol Deng had 17.6 ppg and 7.4 rpg as a freshman leading Duke to the Final Four. Andre Iguodala had a breakout 19-point performance despite Arizona's disappointing finish.

Other big players included Jameer Nelson and Delonte West of Saint Joseph's and Stanford's Josh Childress.

But just to show that a strong NCAA performance doesn't guarantee success in the NBA, don't forget that BYU's Rafael Araujo rode a strong 24-point, 12-rebound tournament performance right into the lottery. He hasn't come close to duplicating that once in the NBA.

New stars will emerge from the NCAA Tournament this year. With the NBA season winding down, how are last year's stars faring in the NBA?

Insider breaks down the Good, Bad and Upside of the 2004 NBA rookie class.



THE GOOD
1. Emeka Okafor, PF, Bobcats
The line: 14.9 ppg, 10.8 rpg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: The scouting report on Okafor before the draft said that Okafor would make an immediate impact on the defensive end of the court and anything you got on the offensive end would be gravy. Keep passing the gravy. Okafor leads all rookies in scoring this season and had a stretch in December and January where he averaged 18 ppg. He also posted 19 straight double-doubles during that stretch, a record for rookies. He's since cooled off thanks to injuries and the inevitable rookie wall, but the Bobcats got exactly what they wanted out of him this year – a big man they can build around. Chances are he'll average 17 and 12 throughout his career, which isn't too shabby.

2. Ben Gordon, SG, Bulls
The line: 14.7 ppg, 43 percent shooting from 3
The skinny: After a terrible start, Gordon has played so well that the award voters are going to have to consider him seriously for the Sixth Man of the Year honor. He's averaging 17.7 ppg since the All-Star break and doing it in just 25 mpg. Using the per-40-minute numbers we like, Gordon is averaging 27.7 points per 40 minutes played. That's huge. He has been great in the fourth quarter for the Bulls, has hit some clutch shots down the stretch and has turned himself into a real 3-point threat. He leads all Bulls regulars in plus/minus rating over the past 30 days. Turnovers and consistency are a big issue, as is his full-time position. He's clearly not a point guard and is very undersized at the two, but it's hard to come up with anyone who has been better as a sixth man this year.

3. Dwight Howard, PF, Magic
The line: 10.7 ppg, 10 rpg, 1.7 bpg on 50 percent shooting
The skinny: Howard got off to a surprisingly hot start, then slowed down considerably in January and early February. Lately, however, he has been on fire. He's averaging 13.1 ppg and 11.7 rpg since the All-Star break and 15 ppg and 14.2 rpg in March. You can thank his increased offensive production for the Magic's determination the past month to get him more involved in the offense. That meant moving Steve Francis off the ball to the two, but the result has been more shots and a much more engaged Howard in the process.

4. Luol Deng, SF, Bulls
The line: 12.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg on 44 percent shooting
The skinny: Deng's production has cooled of late because of an ankle injury. However, when he's healthy, he has been one of the Bulls' most reliable players and leads the team (among Bulls regulars) in plus/minus for the season. Deng is turning into exactly the type of player many scouts thought he would be. It's doubtful he'll ever be a superstar in the league, but he's going to be a consistent scorer and rebounder for the next 10 to 15 years.

5. Andre Iguodala, G/F, Sixers
The line: 8.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.7 spg on 48 percent shooting
The skinny: Nothing about Iguodala's numbers screams at you individually, but collectively, he's the most complete rookie in the league this year. He can score, rebound, handle the ball and defend three positions. Using the NBA's efficiency ratings, Iguodala ranks third behind only Okafor and Howard. Iguodala still needs a lot of work on that jumper, and he needs to get more involved on offense. The jumper he can work on this summer, the offensive stuff might not come until Allen Iverson either retires or is traded.



THE BAD
1. Rafael Araujo, C, Raptors
The line: 3.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg on 42 percent shooting
The skinny: Everyone knew the Raptors reached for Araujo on draft night, but few believed he'd be this much of a disappointment. Araujo went that high because he was one of the few big men in the draft last year that scouts felt was ready to come in and contribute immediately. He was a polished scorer around the basket, had good size and was tough. Unless you're a Warriors fan (he has owned them this year, averaging 13.5 ppg and 7 rpg against them), chances are you haven't seen any of that this year.

2. Luke Jackson, G/F, Cavs
The line: 2.9 ppg on 37 percent shooting
The skinny: Jackson was the biggest riser in the draft after he tested great in individual workouts and NBA combine testing. A 36-inch vertical and a great score on the lane agility skill test convinced scouts that Jackson was a much better athlete than they had originally thought. But after four years of playing at Oregon, how could their original reports have been so wrong? The problem is that Jackson doesn't use his athleticism much in his game. Add an outside shot that is good, but not great, and that explains why he didn't get much playing time this season despite being one of the oldest rookies in the draft. Combine that with a back injury that required surgery in January, and it's safe to say that his rookie season hasn't been an overwhelming success. With Jiri Welsch and Sasha Pavlovic basically playing the same role as Jackson, will the former Duck be expendable this summer?

3. Kris Humphries, F, Jazz
The line: 2.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg on 36 percent shooting
The skinny: Missing from the many explanations for why the Jazz have tanked this season is the disappointing play of their rookies. On draft night, it looked as though the Jazz picked up two players who would be able to contribute immediately. Humphries put up monster numbers his freshman season at Minnesota, but given how bad his team was, maybe scouts read too much into it. Once Andrei Kirilenko went down, Humphries had a chance to move into the rotation, but he struggled. Humphries has shown signs that he's getting it lately, including a 12-rebound performance against the Clippers, but he has been a mess offensively. Sloan has been frustrated as Humphries has struggled to learn the offense, and that has kept the coach from giving the rookie more minutes -- even though the Jazz are out of the playoffs.

4. Kirk Snyder, G/F, Jazz
The line: 3.9 ppg on 36 percent shooting
The skinny: Humphries at least can blame some of his problems on having played just one year of college. What's Snyder's excuse? He played three years at Nevada and starred there. Given his athleticism (he was ranked as the top athlete in the draft at the Chicago pre-draft camp), strength and experience, a lot was expected. He, too, has struggled, though he has shown a few more flashes than Humphries has. Still, it's the mistakes and a selfishness (something both players were accused of before the draft) that has driven Sloan nuts. "When they keep making the same mistakes over and over again, you have to start questioning whether their head's into it the right way," said Sloan, speaking of both rookies. "This is not a one-on-one contest. A lot of these guys think it is."

5. Shaun Livingston, PG, Clippers
The line: 5.5 ppg, 3.3 apg on 41 percent shooting
The skinny: Mike Dunleavy recently told Insider that Shaun Livingston wasn't just going to be good player, he has the chance to be legendary. "There's rarely a practice that goes by where he doesn't do something that we've never seen before. He's just a special player." When he has been healthy, he has proven to the Clippers that he was worth the No. 4 pick in the draft. However, can he stay healthy? A knee injury kept him out two months. After a two-game comeback, a shoulder injury might keep him out the rest of the season. While the sky's still the limit to Livingston, some scouts quietly wonder whether it's not going to take him a few more years for his body to catch up to his talent.



THE UPSIDE
1. Nenad Krstic, PF, Nets
The line: 8.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg on 48 percent shooting
The skinny: The 21-year-old 7-footer has been improving all year and winning rave reviews from point guard Jason Kidd. Since the All-Star break, he's averaging 12.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg and shooting 51 percent from the field. His per-40-minute numbers since the break (18.2 ppg and 8 rpg) are very solid for a kid his age. And his +17.9 plus/minus leads the entire team in the last 30 days.

2. Al Jefferson, PF, Celtics
The line: 6.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg on 52 percent shooting
The skinny: Jefferson showed signs of being a draft night steal before Antoine Walker showed up at the trade deadline and sapped most of his minutes. During January, when Jefferson played his most minutes, he averaged a decent 7.9 ppg and 6.9 rpg. Project his numbers out to 40 mpg and he's doing 17.5 ppg and 12 rpg. The Celtics are very high on him. If they let Walker walk this summer, he could be in the starting lineup as early as next season. If Walker stays, Jefferson's development will probably be much slower.

3 a, b. Josh Childress/Josh Smith, Hawks
The line: 8.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg on 46 percent shooting/7.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg on 45 percent shooting
The skinny: Earlier in the season, Childress was on the "bad" list after getting off to a miserable start. Since the All-Star break, however, he has been fantastic, averaging 14 ppg and 7.9 rpg on 48 percent shooting in the field. His rebounding numbers are especially remarkable considering the Hawks play him mostly at the two. His plus/minus stats are tops on the team the last 30 days.

Smith's scintillating performance at the All-Star dunk contest gave the Hawks their first real star-quality player since Dominique left town. He still has a long way to go before reaching those heights as a player, but there is sizzle to his game. His shot blocking, rebounding and dunking are way ahead of the rest of his skills, but given Smith's age, we'll be expecting great things in the future.

4. Jameer Nelson, PG, Magic
The line: 7.1 ppg, 2.6 apg on 47 percent shooting
The skinny: Nelson stepped into the starting lineup after the All-Star Game and has put up impressive numbers for the Magic – averaging 16.1 ppg, 5.1 apg, 4.4 rpg, 1.7 spg while shooting 53 percent from the field. He's played well enough that there's talk that Steve Francis, who was moved over to the two, might be shipped out next summer. That might be a little premature given that Nelson isn't a "pure" point guard either, but the Magic like what they're seeing so far.



THE REST


<LI>The Mavs' Devin Harris has had an up-and-down season. Originally, he was tapped to be Steve Nash's successor, but once Nash bolted for Phoenix, head coach Don Nelson threw him into the starting lineup. That experiment failed pretty quickly, and Harris has been surviving on reserve minutes since. Still, the long-term outlook for Harris looks solid. He might just need another year or two under his belt before he's ready to guide a playoff contender such as the Mavs.

<LI>No one has benefited more from the chaos in Portland than Sebastian Telfair. Since head coach Mo Cheeks was fired, Telfair has gotten a chance to start, and his numbers (10.8 ppg and 6.6 apg) haven't been too bad. The turnovers and shooting are big issues, but Telfair's learning curve should steepen with regular minutes.

<LI>The Hornets' J.R. Smith is another high school rookie that has benefited from organizational chaos. He's averaging 14.8 ppg since the All-Star break, but what happened to that picture-perfect 3-point shot he showed before the draft?

<LI>For a couple of games, before Gary Payton returned to the Celtics, it looked as though Danny Ainge might have scored a draft trifecta. Delonte West had three big back-to-back games (averaging 17.3 ppg) before handing his minutes back to Payton. Still, while West proved he could be an amazing scorer, he showed few signs of being able to run the team as a full-time point, the position the Celtics drafted him to play. Tony Allen has had his moments too, especially on the defensive end.

<LI>The Spurs' Beno Udrih doesn't put up big numbers, but head coach Gregg Popovich loves him. So do his teammates, several of whom quietly claim they prefer Udrih to Tony Parker.

<LI>The Bulls' Andres Nocioni has taken awhile to adjust to the NBA, but he has been solid in March, averaging 9.8 ppg and 6.4 rpg for Chicago. If he weren't always forced to play out of position in Chicago, his numbers might be higher.

<LI>The Cavs' Anderson Varejao is averaging 13.2 rebounds per 40 minutes, ranking him first among rookies and eighth overall in the league. Lately, his offense has been improving, as well.

<LI>The Bulls' Chris Duhon leads all rookies in assists at 5 apg. If he could ever improve that shaky jumper (he's shooting 34 percent from the field), he could have a long career in the NBA.

<LI>Isiah Thomas' decision to draft Trevor Ariza in the second round has so emboldened Thomas' confidence in his selection skills that the Knicks president obtained more draft picks at the trade deadline.

Every year, there's a second-rounder who turns out to be better than anyone expected. This year, it's the Raptors' Matt Bonner, who's averaging a pretty impressive 14.6 ppg while shooting 69 percent from 3-point range in his last five.



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