Updated: March 24, 2005, 11:39 AM ET
Hawks, Bobcats duke it out for top pick
Chat with Chad Ford Thursday at 1 p.m
While roughly 20 teams are battling it out for 16 playoff seeds, there's another group with a different prize in mind.
For bad teams such as the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats and New Orleans Hornets, the goal no longer is Ws – it's lottery balls.
The NBA instituted the lottery system in 1985 in an attempt to discourage teams from deliberately tanking games late in the season in an effort to compile the worst record in the league and thus secure the No. 1 pick.
The lottery itself is weighted. The worst team in the league gets a 25-percent chance of getting the top pick. The second worst team gets a 20-percent chance. The third worst team a 15-percent chance and so on it goes.
It's been pretty successful – almost too successful. Since 1985, only three teams (Nets in 1990, Cavs in 2003 and Magic in 2004) with the worst record in the league have actually obtained the top pick in the draft.
Still, it hasn't totally discouraged teams from pulling up a bit short at the end. But even tanking can have unexpected consequences.
Last season, the Hawks traded away four of their best five players – Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Rasheed Wallace, Theo Ratliff and Nazr Mohammed– at the trade deadline in an attempt to cut payroll and get a better position to select local high school phenom Dwight Howard in the draft.
The players they got back – Zeljko Rebraca, Bob Sura, Joel Przybilla – weren't doing anything on their respective teams. The 18-36 Hawks weren't supposed to win another game all season.
Shockingly, their ragtag lineup went 10-18 the rest of the way, giving them just a 10 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, and Howard, on draft night. The team with the worst record, the Orlando Magic, did win the lottery. Meanwhile the Hawks settled for Josh Childress at No. 6. Regardless of whether you like Childress, there's a big difference between Childress and Howard. The Hawks' rebuilding plan took a major hit and, as you can tell by where they land on this year's list, they're still trying to pick up the pieces.
In other words, coaches and GMs, swallow your pride. Play the ball boy if you have to. Get as many Ping-Pong balls as you can. There will be only two or three players in this year's draft with immediate star potential – North Carolina's Marvin Williams, Wake Forest's Chris Paul and Utah's Andrew Bogut. However, only Bogut is a lock to actually declare for the draft. Both Williams and Paul claim they are leaning toward returning to college for another year. The rest of the draft is fairly deep, but there will be a pretty steep drop-off after those three.
Today, Insider takes a look at the schedules and recent trends and, based on the evidence, projects who has the best shot at the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Here's how we break it down:
LOTTERY WATCH
1. Atlanta Hawks
Current record: 11-56
Projected record: 14-68
Skinny: Breathe easy, Hawks fans. The team is in no danger of repeating last season's fiasco. With the exception of home games versus the Bobcats, Hornets and Raptors, the rest of the season looks hopeless. Ironically, this year's Hawks squad actually has more talent than last year's, but they seem content to sleepwalk through the remainder of the season. For the second straight year, GM Billy Knight has given away his best player to a contender in an attempt to move up on draft night. This year, sources claim that the target is Paul. The Hawks have no point guard to speak of and believe they'll address their need in the middle via free agency. They plan on making a huge offer for Samuel Dalembert this summer. If they can somehow pull that off, the Hawks should be significantly improved next season. Al Harrington, Josh Smith and Childress have all been solid this year. Add an athletic shot blocker in the middle and a savvy point guard to run the show and the Hawks won't be contenders, but at least they'll be watchable. If Paul and Williams don't declare, the choice will be less obvious. Bogut would fit a need, but he doesn't quite fit the type of up-tempo, super-athletic team Knight is trying to build.
2. Charlotte Bobcats
Current record: 13-53
Projected record: 16-66
Skinny: We said before the start of the season that the dire predictions about the Bobcats being the worst team ever were overblown. The league is watered down enough and the Bobcats had enough young players to squeak out a few victories here and there. In reality, the Bobcats have been much better than expected. At home, they've played just about everyone extremely tough. Emeka Okafor is having a good rookie season, Gerald Wallace really started picking up his game before his injury, Primoz Brezec has proved more than capable in the middle and Brevin Knight has been resurrected from the dead, ranking second in the league in assists. That's all GM and head coach Bernie Bickerstaff was looking for – two or three building blocks going into next season. If the Bobcats get the No. 1 pick, sources insist that they'll grab Paul. He's a local product who fits perfectly into the system the Bobcats are developing. They are also fond of Williams, should he declare. Bogut is less of a fit because of Brezec and Okafor.
3. New Orleans Hornets
Current record: 15-52
Projected record: 17-65
Skinny: Major injuries to the Hornets' three best players collided with a move to the Western Conference, causing the Hornets to sink from playoff contender to the depths of despair. With the season getting out of hand, GM Allan Bristow decided to ride the wave, dumping Baron Davis, David Wesley, Jamal Mashburn and everyone else he could in an effort to cut payroll and get a better shot at No. 1. Luckily, their quest for the No. 1 pick hasn't taken a big hit since Jamaal Magloire returned to the lineup. Given the toughness of their schedule over the last month of the season, the Hornets should be right there in the scrum for No. 1. If they get it, sources claim that they love Williams. Of course, that might be enough to scare Williams back to Chapel Hill for another year.
4. Portland Trail Blazers
Current record: 23-43
Projected record: 25-57
Skinny: If you're going to tank the season, do what the Blazers did. With the team still in the hunt for the eighth seed in the playoffs, GM John Nash stayed pat at the trade deadline despite having several great trade assets, fired the coach, and then installed his own right-hand man, director of player personnel Kevin Pritchard, to do his bidding. Pritchard gave some of the veterans the rest of the season off, handed the starting point guard role over to high school phenom Sebastian Telfair and then sat on the sidelines and watched as the Blazers dropped 10 of their last 11 with Telfair steering the ship. Expect them to keep losing. The team has a tough schedule down the stretch and hasn't shown any signs of being able to win at home or on the road since the change. Unfortunately for Nash, it won't be enough to get them more than a 10 percent shot at No. 1. The Blazers have a huge lead in the win column over the Hawks, Hornets and Bobcats. Even if they go a projected 2-14 the rest of the way, they'll be 11 games ahead of the last-place Hawks. Sources claim that Nash is enamored with Bogut. Bogut's passing skills remind Blazers brass of Arvydas Sabonis. However, to get their hands on him, they are going to need some serious luck on draft night.
5. Utah Jazz
Current record: 21-46
Projected record: 26-56
Skinny: Last year, many thought the Jazz might be the worst team ever. Instead, they finished just short of a No. 8 seed in the West. This year, no one expected the Jazz to be competing with the likes of the Bobcats and Hawks for lottery balls. After signing Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, it appeared they could make some serious noise in the West. However, chemistry issues combined with a major injury to Andrei Kirilenko have torpedoed the season for the Jazz. Considering that they started the season 7-3, their 14-43 record the rest of the way has been truly abysmal. The team's schedule is fairly soft the rest of the way, meaning the Jazz could finish the last 15 games of the season a respectable 5-10. When draft time comes around, their biggest need is a point guard. Since trading Carlos Arroyo to the Detroit Pistons, they've been a mess at the position. They also need an athletic, shot-blocking big man. Getting a guy like Paul would be huge, but chances are he'll be long gone before the Jazz pick.
6. Golden State Warriors
Current record: 23-45
Projected record: 29-53
Skinny: For months it looked like the Warriors were the worst team in the West. The Hornets had a worse record, but they were without their three top players. So what does GM Chris Mullin do? He raids the team during the trade deadline, bringing aboard Baron Davis in a risky move to upgrade the talent on this perennial loser. Davis has been absolutely awful so far, shooting 35 percent from the field for the Warriors. But the Warriors themselves have been much better, going 8-6 since the trade. More impressively, six of those eight wins have come on the road, more than doubling their road record all season. While the late-season turnaround won't be enough to save the season, the Warriors could be a force to be reckoned with next season if Davis can stay healthy, and get his shot back, and if they land a great pick in the draft. Mullin has his eye on Williams if the team should get the No. 1 pick, which could mean Mike Dunleavy's days in Oakland are numbered.
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Hawks, Bobcats duke it out for top pick
Chat with Chad Ford Thursday at 1 p.m
While roughly 20 teams are battling it out for 16 playoff seeds, there's another group with a different prize in mind.
For bad teams such as the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats and New Orleans Hornets, the goal no longer is Ws – it's lottery balls.
The NBA instituted the lottery system in 1985 in an attempt to discourage teams from deliberately tanking games late in the season in an effort to compile the worst record in the league and thus secure the No. 1 pick.
The lottery itself is weighted. The worst team in the league gets a 25-percent chance of getting the top pick. The second worst team gets a 20-percent chance. The third worst team a 15-percent chance and so on it goes.
It's been pretty successful – almost too successful. Since 1985, only three teams (Nets in 1990, Cavs in 2003 and Magic in 2004) with the worst record in the league have actually obtained the top pick in the draft.
Still, it hasn't totally discouraged teams from pulling up a bit short at the end. But even tanking can have unexpected consequences.
Last season, the Hawks traded away four of their best five players – Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Rasheed Wallace, Theo Ratliff and Nazr Mohammed– at the trade deadline in an attempt to cut payroll and get a better position to select local high school phenom Dwight Howard in the draft.
The players they got back – Zeljko Rebraca, Bob Sura, Joel Przybilla – weren't doing anything on their respective teams. The 18-36 Hawks weren't supposed to win another game all season.
Shockingly, their ragtag lineup went 10-18 the rest of the way, giving them just a 10 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, and Howard, on draft night. The team with the worst record, the Orlando Magic, did win the lottery. Meanwhile the Hawks settled for Josh Childress at No. 6. Regardless of whether you like Childress, there's a big difference between Childress and Howard. The Hawks' rebuilding plan took a major hit and, as you can tell by where they land on this year's list, they're still trying to pick up the pieces.
In other words, coaches and GMs, swallow your pride. Play the ball boy if you have to. Get as many Ping-Pong balls as you can. There will be only two or three players in this year's draft with immediate star potential – North Carolina's Marvin Williams, Wake Forest's Chris Paul and Utah's Andrew Bogut. However, only Bogut is a lock to actually declare for the draft. Both Williams and Paul claim they are leaning toward returning to college for another year. The rest of the draft is fairly deep, but there will be a pretty steep drop-off after those three.
Today, Insider takes a look at the schedules and recent trends and, based on the evidence, projects who has the best shot at the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Here's how we break it down:
LOTTERY WATCH
1. Atlanta Hawks
Current record: 11-56
Projected record: 14-68
Skinny: Breathe easy, Hawks fans. The team is in no danger of repeating last season's fiasco. With the exception of home games versus the Bobcats, Hornets and Raptors, the rest of the season looks hopeless. Ironically, this year's Hawks squad actually has more talent than last year's, but they seem content to sleepwalk through the remainder of the season. For the second straight year, GM Billy Knight has given away his best player to a contender in an attempt to move up on draft night. This year, sources claim that the target is Paul. The Hawks have no point guard to speak of and believe they'll address their need in the middle via free agency. They plan on making a huge offer for Samuel Dalembert this summer. If they can somehow pull that off, the Hawks should be significantly improved next season. Al Harrington, Josh Smith and Childress have all been solid this year. Add an athletic shot blocker in the middle and a savvy point guard to run the show and the Hawks won't be contenders, but at least they'll be watchable. If Paul and Williams don't declare, the choice will be less obvious. Bogut would fit a need, but he doesn't quite fit the type of up-tempo, super-athletic team Knight is trying to build.
2. Charlotte Bobcats
Current record: 13-53
Projected record: 16-66
Skinny: We said before the start of the season that the dire predictions about the Bobcats being the worst team ever were overblown. The league is watered down enough and the Bobcats had enough young players to squeak out a few victories here and there. In reality, the Bobcats have been much better than expected. At home, they've played just about everyone extremely tough. Emeka Okafor is having a good rookie season, Gerald Wallace really started picking up his game before his injury, Primoz Brezec has proved more than capable in the middle and Brevin Knight has been resurrected from the dead, ranking second in the league in assists. That's all GM and head coach Bernie Bickerstaff was looking for – two or three building blocks going into next season. If the Bobcats get the No. 1 pick, sources insist that they'll grab Paul. He's a local product who fits perfectly into the system the Bobcats are developing. They are also fond of Williams, should he declare. Bogut is less of a fit because of Brezec and Okafor.
3. New Orleans Hornets
Current record: 15-52
Projected record: 17-65
Skinny: Major injuries to the Hornets' three best players collided with a move to the Western Conference, causing the Hornets to sink from playoff contender to the depths of despair. With the season getting out of hand, GM Allan Bristow decided to ride the wave, dumping Baron Davis, David Wesley, Jamal Mashburn and everyone else he could in an effort to cut payroll and get a better shot at No. 1. Luckily, their quest for the No. 1 pick hasn't taken a big hit since Jamaal Magloire returned to the lineup. Given the toughness of their schedule over the last month of the season, the Hornets should be right there in the scrum for No. 1. If they get it, sources claim that they love Williams. Of course, that might be enough to scare Williams back to Chapel Hill for another year.
4. Portland Trail Blazers
Current record: 23-43
Projected record: 25-57
Skinny: If you're going to tank the season, do what the Blazers did. With the team still in the hunt for the eighth seed in the playoffs, GM John Nash stayed pat at the trade deadline despite having several great trade assets, fired the coach, and then installed his own right-hand man, director of player personnel Kevin Pritchard, to do his bidding. Pritchard gave some of the veterans the rest of the season off, handed the starting point guard role over to high school phenom Sebastian Telfair and then sat on the sidelines and watched as the Blazers dropped 10 of their last 11 with Telfair steering the ship. Expect them to keep losing. The team has a tough schedule down the stretch and hasn't shown any signs of being able to win at home or on the road since the change. Unfortunately for Nash, it won't be enough to get them more than a 10 percent shot at No. 1. The Blazers have a huge lead in the win column over the Hawks, Hornets and Bobcats. Even if they go a projected 2-14 the rest of the way, they'll be 11 games ahead of the last-place Hawks. Sources claim that Nash is enamored with Bogut. Bogut's passing skills remind Blazers brass of Arvydas Sabonis. However, to get their hands on him, they are going to need some serious luck on draft night.
5. Utah Jazz
Current record: 21-46
Projected record: 26-56
Skinny: Last year, many thought the Jazz might be the worst team ever. Instead, they finished just short of a No. 8 seed in the West. This year, no one expected the Jazz to be competing with the likes of the Bobcats and Hawks for lottery balls. After signing Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, it appeared they could make some serious noise in the West. However, chemistry issues combined with a major injury to Andrei Kirilenko have torpedoed the season for the Jazz. Considering that they started the season 7-3, their 14-43 record the rest of the way has been truly abysmal. The team's schedule is fairly soft the rest of the way, meaning the Jazz could finish the last 15 games of the season a respectable 5-10. When draft time comes around, their biggest need is a point guard. Since trading Carlos Arroyo to the Detroit Pistons, they've been a mess at the position. They also need an athletic, shot-blocking big man. Getting a guy like Paul would be huge, but chances are he'll be long gone before the Jazz pick.
6. Golden State Warriors
Current record: 23-45
Projected record: 29-53
Skinny: For months it looked like the Warriors were the worst team in the West. The Hornets had a worse record, but they were without their three top players. So what does GM Chris Mullin do? He raids the team during the trade deadline, bringing aboard Baron Davis in a risky move to upgrade the talent on this perennial loser. Davis has been absolutely awful so far, shooting 35 percent from the field for the Warriors. But the Warriors themselves have been much better, going 8-6 since the trade. More impressively, six of those eight wins have come on the road, more than doubling their road record all season. While the late-season turnaround won't be enough to save the season, the Warriors could be a force to be reckoned with next season if Davis can stay healthy, and get his shot back, and if they land a great pick in the draft. Mullin has his eye on Williams if the team should get the No. 1 pick, which could mean Mike Dunleavy's days in Oakland are numbered.
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