By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
CHICAGO -- NBA Draft forecasters will consult anything -- the stars, chicken bones, changes in barometric pressure -- in an effort to gauge where a guy will go in the draft.
Historically, one of the most interesting and accurate gauges of a player's draft stock is the NBA's confidential "physical only" list.
By now you know that most of the top players in the draft do not play at the pre-draft camp. Every year, the NBA flies in 15 to 20 of the top prospects not playing in the camp to give them physicals and run them through the combine.
The biggest importance of getting an invite is that every team doctor in the league gets to poke and prod you. Without a league certified physical, agents must obtain one on their own and often have to submit their clients to numerous medical tests as the go from city to city. Here in Chicago, it's one-stop shopping. Getting official heights, weights, vertical jumps and strength testing are also important.
The league consults a committee made of GMs and scouts to produce the list. Getting on the workout only list is a pretty sure sign that your draft stock is high. Getting left off the list can be the first sign that things are going terribly wrong.
You can't read everything into a list like this, but it's a pretty decent rule of thumb. Insider exclusively obtained a copy of the secret list on Wednesday. While the names on the list are interesting, it's the names that aren't on the list that are raising a few eyebrows around the league.
Who's on it?
Andris Biedrins, PF, Latvia
Josh Childress, SF, Stanford
Luol Deng, SF, Duke
Ben Gordon, PG, UConn
Devin Harris, PG, Wisconsin
Dwight Howard, PF, Southwest Christian Academy
Kris Humprhies, PF, Minnesota
Andre Iguodala, SG, Arizona
Luke Jackson, SG/SF, Oregona
Al Jefferson, PF, Prentiss (MS)
Shaun Livingston, PG, Peoria (IL)
Jameer Nelson, PG, St. Joseph's
Emeka Okafor, PF, UConn
Peter John Ramos, C, Puerto Rico
J.R. Smith, SG, New Jersey
Josh Smith, SF, Oak Hill Academy (VA)
Kirk Snyder, SG, Nevada
Tiago Splitter, PF, Brazil
The two big surprises on the list were Splitter and Ramos. Splitter's stock has been all over the board this year. He's in Chicago for a workout on Friday, which may explain why he got on the invite list, but other top international prospects are here too and they didn't get invited.
Ramos' stock has been on the rise all spring and this may be an indication that the NBA believes he will go fairly high in the draft.
No physical for you
Here's a look at a few notable names that were left off the list:
Rafael Araujo, C, BYU
David Harrison, C, Colorado
Pavel Podkolzine, C, Siberia
Peja Samardziski, C, Serbia
Donta Smith, SF, Juco
Robert Swift, C, Bakersfield (CA)
Sebastian Telfair, PG, Brooklyn
Dorell Wright, SG, South Kent Prep (CT)
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]The "physical only" list may be another sign that Sebastian Telfair's stock is sinking.[/font]
There were a number of surprises here. Telfair's name stands out because he's the most prominent name and it may corroborate reports that his stock is sinking like a rock in workouts. However, a few other names are even more puzzling.
Araujo is widely considered a top 12-20 prospect in the draft. Why isn't he here? One league source claimed that he was left off the list because he agreed to play in the pre-draft camp and then pulled out. There are some politics involved with the list and Araujo wouldn't be the first guy who didn't get an invite because he upset someone.
Podkolzine didn't get an invite, according to his agent, because the league told him that the physical he took last year at the camp would suffice. Given Podkolzine's medical history and recent bone break, that's mind-boggling. Podkolzine was willing to come to the combine, but wasn't invited.
Samardziski and Swift are both considered locks for the first round and both players will likely be off the board before the 20th pick. Again, this may be more politics than draft stock at this point.
Workouts
High school point guard Shaun Livingston had a big workout in the morning for the Bobcats. The Bobcats are absolutely the best fit for Livingston, but several NBA sources are claiming that they are still leaning heavily toward Stanford's Josh Childress right now. Livingston shot the ball much better for the Bobcats, but it still sounds like they're afraid of the risk. I think Childress is going to be a good to very good player in the league, but in two or three years the Bobcats will be wishing they took Livingston.
Wisconsin point guard Devin Harris struggled in his workout against Northwestern's Tim Young on Wednesday for the Warriors. Harris didn't shoot the ball as well as he normally does and struggled against Young's physical defense.
Russian forward Viktor Khryapa has been in town and, according to several reports, he's been very good in workouts the past several days.
SFX held a big group workout for every NBA team on Wednesday featuring Sasha Vujacic, Roko Leni Ukic, Ha Seung Jin and Erazem Lorbek. Over a 100 people from the NBA attended the workout.
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Wednesday's workout cemented Sasha Vujacic's place in the mid first round.[/font]
The big story there was Vujacic. He has gained a significant amount of muscle since we saw him last year in Chicago. The extra 15 pounds of weight made him look much sturdier. Last year some teams were worried that his slight frame would be a problem in the pros.
Vujacic, a 6-foot-7 point guard from Slovenia, shot the lights out in the workout. He also showed a nice handle and got up and down the floor very well. Last year he was a bubble first-round guy. This year Vujacic should be firmly planted in the first round. He's already worked out for the Lakers (they almost gave him a late first-round promise last season) and has a number of workouts scheduled in the coming days. I think he's a very good prospect who could go as high as 17 to Atlanta but likely won't slip past the Lakers at No. 27.
Ukic also looked very good in the workout, though scouts who saw him in Treviso at the Eurocamp got a much better handle on what he can and can't do. At this workout he showed his quickness and actually shot the ball pretty well. Still, it's a crime he's not playing in the pre-draft camp. After watching the point guards on the floor on Wednesday, I think he probably would've been the best prospect there. He'll likely pull out of the draft and try again next year.
Ha and Lorbek beat each other up down at the other end of the gym. Lorbek was very good at the Eurocamp in Trevisio. Scouts claim he's not athletic enough to play in the pros but I'm not so sure. He'll never be a star, but I saw enough athleticism to make him, at the very least, a decent rotation player in the league. Lorbek is another guy who will probably return to Europe.
Ha is tougher to figure out. The size and strength are there. He showed some real basketball skills and decent agility for a kid his size. But until someone rolls out the basketball and he starts playing 5-on-5, how can anyone be sure?
The other big workout of the day was Western Carolina's Kevin Martin, a 6-foot-7 two guard who ranked second nationally in scoring at 24.9 ppg last season. Martin is tall, athletic and has good, but not great jump shot. We walked in a few minutes late for the workout, but for the 30 minutes we saw him, he didn't shoot the ball particularly well.
Martin's decision to pull out of the Chicago pre-draft camp made waves here. I'm not sure it was a smart decision. Martin's the type of guy who would excel in the pre-draft camp. He's quick, knows how to create his own shot and, most importantly, he's always looking for his shot. There aren't that many guys in Chicago who fit that description.
Watching Martin go one-on-one with Purdue's Kenneth Lowe (a two-time Big 10 defensive player of the year) gave you some idea of what he could do, but honestly it's very tough to gauge players in that environment.
Three teams -- Miami, Denver and Boston -- like Martin. I'm not sure Boston or Miami like him as a first-round pick. Boston might. The Celtics are looking for a taller, athletic wing and Martin fits the description. He may be in the running for one of Boston's last picks of the first round along with Dorell Wright. Chances are Martin will stay in the draft. There's talk that he has a promise in the 30s and, given that he can't play any better than he's played at Western Carolina, that may be enough to keep him in the draft.
ESPN Insider
CHICAGO -- NBA Draft forecasters will consult anything -- the stars, chicken bones, changes in barometric pressure -- in an effort to gauge where a guy will go in the draft.
Historically, one of the most interesting and accurate gauges of a player's draft stock is the NBA's confidential "physical only" list.
By now you know that most of the top players in the draft do not play at the pre-draft camp. Every year, the NBA flies in 15 to 20 of the top prospects not playing in the camp to give them physicals and run them through the combine.
The biggest importance of getting an invite is that every team doctor in the league gets to poke and prod you. Without a league certified physical, agents must obtain one on their own and often have to submit their clients to numerous medical tests as the go from city to city. Here in Chicago, it's one-stop shopping. Getting official heights, weights, vertical jumps and strength testing are also important.
The league consults a committee made of GMs and scouts to produce the list. Getting on the workout only list is a pretty sure sign that your draft stock is high. Getting left off the list can be the first sign that things are going terribly wrong.
You can't read everything into a list like this, but it's a pretty decent rule of thumb. Insider exclusively obtained a copy of the secret list on Wednesday. While the names on the list are interesting, it's the names that aren't on the list that are raising a few eyebrows around the league.
Who's on it?
Andris Biedrins, PF, Latvia
Josh Childress, SF, Stanford
Luol Deng, SF, Duke
Ben Gordon, PG, UConn
Devin Harris, PG, Wisconsin
Dwight Howard, PF, Southwest Christian Academy
Kris Humprhies, PF, Minnesota
Andre Iguodala, SG, Arizona
Luke Jackson, SG/SF, Oregona
Al Jefferson, PF, Prentiss (MS)
Shaun Livingston, PG, Peoria (IL)
Jameer Nelson, PG, St. Joseph's
Emeka Okafor, PF, UConn
Peter John Ramos, C, Puerto Rico
J.R. Smith, SG, New Jersey
Josh Smith, SF, Oak Hill Academy (VA)
Kirk Snyder, SG, Nevada
Tiago Splitter, PF, Brazil
The two big surprises on the list were Splitter and Ramos. Splitter's stock has been all over the board this year. He's in Chicago for a workout on Friday, which may explain why he got on the invite list, but other top international prospects are here too and they didn't get invited.
Ramos' stock has been on the rise all spring and this may be an indication that the NBA believes he will go fairly high in the draft.
No physical for you
Here's a look at a few notable names that were left off the list:
Rafael Araujo, C, BYU
David Harrison, C, Colorado
Pavel Podkolzine, C, Siberia
Peja Samardziski, C, Serbia
Donta Smith, SF, Juco
Robert Swift, C, Bakersfield (CA)
Sebastian Telfair, PG, Brooklyn
Dorell Wright, SG, South Kent Prep (CT)
You must be registered for see images
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]The "physical only" list may be another sign that Sebastian Telfair's stock is sinking.[/font]
There were a number of surprises here. Telfair's name stands out because he's the most prominent name and it may corroborate reports that his stock is sinking like a rock in workouts. However, a few other names are even more puzzling.
Araujo is widely considered a top 12-20 prospect in the draft. Why isn't he here? One league source claimed that he was left off the list because he agreed to play in the pre-draft camp and then pulled out. There are some politics involved with the list and Araujo wouldn't be the first guy who didn't get an invite because he upset someone.
Podkolzine didn't get an invite, according to his agent, because the league told him that the physical he took last year at the camp would suffice. Given Podkolzine's medical history and recent bone break, that's mind-boggling. Podkolzine was willing to come to the combine, but wasn't invited.
Samardziski and Swift are both considered locks for the first round and both players will likely be off the board before the 20th pick. Again, this may be more politics than draft stock at this point.
Workouts
High school point guard Shaun Livingston had a big workout in the morning for the Bobcats. The Bobcats are absolutely the best fit for Livingston, but several NBA sources are claiming that they are still leaning heavily toward Stanford's Josh Childress right now. Livingston shot the ball much better for the Bobcats, but it still sounds like they're afraid of the risk. I think Childress is going to be a good to very good player in the league, but in two or three years the Bobcats will be wishing they took Livingston.
Wisconsin point guard Devin Harris struggled in his workout against Northwestern's Tim Young on Wednesday for the Warriors. Harris didn't shoot the ball as well as he normally does and struggled against Young's physical defense.
Russian forward Viktor Khryapa has been in town and, according to several reports, he's been very good in workouts the past several days.
SFX held a big group workout for every NBA team on Wednesday featuring Sasha Vujacic, Roko Leni Ukic, Ha Seung Jin and Erazem Lorbek. Over a 100 people from the NBA attended the workout.
You must be registered for see images
[font=verdana, arial, geneva]Wednesday's workout cemented Sasha Vujacic's place in the mid first round.[/font]
The big story there was Vujacic. He has gained a significant amount of muscle since we saw him last year in Chicago. The extra 15 pounds of weight made him look much sturdier. Last year some teams were worried that his slight frame would be a problem in the pros.
Vujacic, a 6-foot-7 point guard from Slovenia, shot the lights out in the workout. He also showed a nice handle and got up and down the floor very well. Last year he was a bubble first-round guy. This year Vujacic should be firmly planted in the first round. He's already worked out for the Lakers (they almost gave him a late first-round promise last season) and has a number of workouts scheduled in the coming days. I think he's a very good prospect who could go as high as 17 to Atlanta but likely won't slip past the Lakers at No. 27.
Ukic also looked very good in the workout, though scouts who saw him in Treviso at the Eurocamp got a much better handle on what he can and can't do. At this workout he showed his quickness and actually shot the ball pretty well. Still, it's a crime he's not playing in the pre-draft camp. After watching the point guards on the floor on Wednesday, I think he probably would've been the best prospect there. He'll likely pull out of the draft and try again next year.
Ha and Lorbek beat each other up down at the other end of the gym. Lorbek was very good at the Eurocamp in Trevisio. Scouts claim he's not athletic enough to play in the pros but I'm not so sure. He'll never be a star, but I saw enough athleticism to make him, at the very least, a decent rotation player in the league. Lorbek is another guy who will probably return to Europe.
Ha is tougher to figure out. The size and strength are there. He showed some real basketball skills and decent agility for a kid his size. But until someone rolls out the basketball and he starts playing 5-on-5, how can anyone be sure?
The other big workout of the day was Western Carolina's Kevin Martin, a 6-foot-7 two guard who ranked second nationally in scoring at 24.9 ppg last season. Martin is tall, athletic and has good, but not great jump shot. We walked in a few minutes late for the workout, but for the 30 minutes we saw him, he didn't shoot the ball particularly well.
Martin's decision to pull out of the Chicago pre-draft camp made waves here. I'm not sure it was a smart decision. Martin's the type of guy who would excel in the pre-draft camp. He's quick, knows how to create his own shot and, most importantly, he's always looking for his shot. There aren't that many guys in Chicago who fit that description.
Watching Martin go one-on-one with Purdue's Kenneth Lowe (a two-time Big 10 defensive player of the year) gave you some idea of what he could do, but honestly it's very tough to gauge players in that environment.
Three teams -- Miami, Denver and Boston -- like Martin. I'm not sure Boston or Miami like him as a first-round pick. Boston might. The Celtics are looking for a taller, athletic wing and Martin fits the description. He may be in the running for one of Boston's last picks of the first round along with Dorell Wright. Chances are Martin will stay in the draft. There's talk that he has a promise in the 30s and, given that he can't play any better than he's played at Western Carolina, that may be enough to keep him in the draft.
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