T minus 17 days: What will Silver change?

[elindholm]

During the David Stern era, the NBA has become very much a star's league. Stars are anointed by some combination of on-court performance and marketability, the league's PR machine then makes those stars the focus of every high-profile game or (especially) playoff series, and the referees, well-intentioned though many of them may be, can't help but be influenced by the cemented reputations of the league's "top" players.

In defending officials' reluctance to call fouls on the NBA's marquee names, Stern famously said, "People don't pay money to watch Michael Jordan's backup." And indeed they don't, especially when an elite group of athletes, who already have a physical advantage, get to play by a different set of rules from everyone else. Everyone knows that, if the going gets tough, a Jordan or Bryant or James can play all 48 minutes of a playoff game: they can't foul out, and television timeouts will provide the rest they need, so why bench them at all, except for show?

The Tim Donaghy scandal destroyed what little credibility NBA officials had left, but Stern, characteristically, emerged unscathed -- mainly by bullying or otherwise denigrating anyone who dared challenge his moral authority, a surefire giveaway of his hypocrisy. And so things continue, with teams like the Pacers or Grizzlies momentarily propped up as quasi-contenders, only to give some variety to the storyline that is all but guaranteed to put stars in the winner's circle. (The wrinkle to this season is the perception that a team must be truly special to win three straight titles, which may end up disqualifying the Heat even if they are this year's best.)

Stern's retirement on February 1 will provide the league a once-in-a-generation opportunity to change course. As the NBA's global presence grows, will its marketing gurus discover that the idea of a level playing field is more attractive to overseas markets? As advanced metrics bring the interested fan closer to understanding players' real on-court value, will "stars" be identified by something more sophisticated than their highlight reels and most basic statistics? More generally, is the league ready to assume some humility and accountability with respect to the integrity of its product, recognizing that it must continue to compete for fan support rather than brazenly taking it for granted?

I don't have any answers, but I do think that the next couple of years have the potential to make the league a lot more palatable. We'll have to see how it plays out.

 

[Suns_fan69]

What I would love to see is more transparency/visibility on the officiating. They seem to be moving in this direction - the visual rule book, the explanations on missed calls - but it'd be nice to an expansion of this.

Cuban has on numerous occasions asked for the internal grading that NBA officials receive to be made public. There's also the SportVu data that supposedly the league is using to gauge things like how often refs are in the correct position, when calls are made from the correct/wrong position and so on and so forth.

Perhaps the casual fan doesn't really care about this but IMO this would help to rebuild some of the credibility of the officials.

The NBA is a ridiculously hard sport to referee, so I'm not expecting perfection. What I am looking for is the league to recognize trends in referees and work with them to get better.

 

[Mainstreet]

I agree with much of what Suns_fan69 said. If the NBA could do away with preferential treatment for stars and make the referees publicly accountable, it would be a huge step forward.

 

[Errntknght]

The preferential treatment stars get was eclipsed by the preferential treatment the entire Laker team got down the stretch last year to make sure they got into the playoffs. I watched those games and it was just one atrocious call or non-call after another. The statistical evidence was overwhelming as well - they went from an average foul call advantage of 3 for most of the season to an advantage of 8 during the last fifteen games. Stern's last legacy.

 

[Chaplin]

I think it's impossible to know what will happen at this point. I think there's as good a chance of something changing as their is for things to stay at the status quo.

IMO, Adam Silver was a Stern lackey through-and-through. I don't recall any original ideas or thoughts from the man, does anyone else? Hell, the most high-profile gig the guy has had is calling the 2nd round of the draft.

Won't be surprised if it's business-as-usual.

 

[Phrazbit]

I really hope they revamp the draft lotto. Eliminating the urge to tank. I am not wild about the "wheel" system that was brought up last month, but a lotto system similar to what it was in the 80s where all the non-playoff teams had equal odds of landing the top pick (but expand it to top 3), maybe even include the bottom seeds in each conference into the equation, to therefore eliminate any temptation of teams not trying to win.

But I think there is promise in the way the NBA is trending. Their new motion tracking cameras and the mountain of statistical data they provide has been fascinating. Also the new highlight reels on NBA.com that allows you to look at each and ever shot attempt and defensive play by every player throughout the year. And best of all the league is letting its fans look over it all free of charge. I feel like the NFL would put quite the premium on an equivalent technology.

 

[Mainstreet]

I really hope they revamp the draft lotto. Eliminating the urge to tank. I am not wild about the "wheel" system that was brought up last month, but a lotto system similar to what it was in the 80s where all the non-playoff teams had equal odds of landing the top pick (but expand it to top 3), maybe even include the bottom seeds in each conference into the equation, to therefore eliminate any temptation of teams not trying to win.

But I think there is promise in the way the NBA is trending. Their new motion tracking cameras and the mountain of statistical data they provide has been fascinating. Also the new highlight reels on NBA.com that allows you to look at each and ever shot attempt and defensive play by every player throughout the year. And best of all the league is letting its fans look over it all free of charge. I feel like the NFL would put quite the premium on an equivalent technology.

I'm tired of teams being rewarded for losing... period. Although the "wheel" system may not be the best, it would at least allow the Suns to finally get the first overall pick someday (hopefully sooner rather than later because they never have had one) and everyone would know who drafts where.

Also I'm frustrated that a first round pick can evolve into two second round picks in a trade.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Things I would love to see in the NBA.

1. A remote review room like in hockey, where egregious errors can be corrected without slowing the flow of the game too much.
2. An open rating system for referees. Its being done already by all of the sports books. Every point spread prognositicator out there takes into account who is reffing the games. The NBA might as well acknowledge it and deal with it.
3. I like the idea of expanding the lottery to include the 7-8 seed teams. This would also include not weighting the odds so much in favor of the top teams, and expanding the top 3 to top 5. This is not original with me, I saw it posted somewhere recently and it seemed like a great idea. The top six seed teams usually believe they have a chance of going somewhere. Allowing the 7-8 teams in the lottery means they can play hard and maintain their dignity, even if they get blown out of the first round, without sacrificing a chance at their future. They could also increase odds of getting a top 5 pick for every year a team has not drafted top 5 or 3. Give them a few extra ping pong balls if they haven't had a top 5 pick in a few years. But no extras if they are over the luxury tax.

 

[chickenhead]

I don't like the wheel: it may reduce some random rewards, and tanking, but it just introduces other variables. Apologies if any of these have been discussed, but what if a consensus top pick sits out of the draft because he doesn't want to play for the first few teams, and a team he wants to play for (that may have found a way to tamper) has a top pick the next year?

Or more likely, what if players declare early to avoid teams with top picks later? Seems like that would definitely put a market like Milwaukee at a disadvantage.

Some teams would make dumb choices as they banked on their upcoming top picks, but that's okay, as this is actually a way in which smart organizations would separate themselves. But I think it would certainly affect the movement of coaches around the league.

I do like the idea of 7-8 seeds entering the lottery. A team that pushes hard to make the playoffs, rewards their fans with at least one round, and then gets a good pick to build on? That's a nice story.

 

[Phrazbit]

I don't like the wheel: it may reduce some random rewards, and tanking, but it just introduces other variables. Apologies if any of these have been discussed, but what if a consensus top pick sits out of the draft because he doesn't want to play for the first few teams, and a team he wants to play for (that may have found a way to tamper) has a top pick the next year?

Or more likely, what if players declare early to avoid teams with top picks later? Seems like that would definitely put a market like Milwaukee at a disadvantage.

Some teams would make dumb choices as they banked on their upcoming top picks, but that's okay, as this is actually a way in which smart organizations would separate themselves. But I think it would certainly affect the movement of coaches around the league.

I do like the idea of 7-8 seeds entering the lottery. A team that pushes hard to make the playoffs, rewards their fans with at least one round, and then gets a good pick to build on? That's a nice story.

It also hurts small markets because the draft is their equalizer against the big markets. The big teams poach the talent off the little guys, the little guys end up getting more in the draft. Putting a team with the financial resources and free agent allure of the Knicks on equal ground in the draft with a team like the Bucks, Magic, Jazz... its really unfair.

 

[JCSunsfan]

It also hurts small markets because the draft is their equalizer against the big markets. The big teams poach the talent off the little guys, the little guys end up getting more in the draft. Putting a team with the financial resources and free agent allure of the Knicks on equal ground in the draft with a team like the Bucks, Magic, Jazz... its really unfair.

How about this: Teams with top 5 payrolls (5 year average) cannot draft in the top 5.

 

[HooverDam]

How about this: Teams with top 5 payrolls (5 year average) cannot draft in the top 5.

Don't like that. Just because you've spent a lot, doesn't mean you've spent wisely or are any good. How much would it suck to be a fan of a team who just got a new GM that inherited an Isiah Thomas style mess and not be allowed to pick in the top 5?

 

[Phrazbit]

Don't like that. Just because you've spent a lot, doesn't mean you've spent wisely or are any good. How much would it suck to be a fan of a team who just got a new GM that inherited an Isiah Thomas style mess and not be allowed to pick in the top 5?

A good point. It also would cause more owners of all market sizes to go cheap. I also think the players union would have a legitimate beef if the league set up rules to reward frugality. I think the new luxury tax rules are stiff enough to mostly even the financial playing field.

 

[Superbone]

IMO, Adam Silver was a Stern lackey through-and-through. I don't recall any original ideas or thoughts from the man, does anyone else? Hell, the most high-profile gig the guy has had is calling the 2nd round of the draft.

Won't be surprised if it's business-as-usual.

Do you really think Stern would give him any credit if he did come up with some original ideas? Stern strikes me as the iron fisted type that takes any and all credit. I have no idea what kind of commissioner Silver will be.

 

[JCSunsfan]

A good point. It also would cause more owners of all market sizes to go cheap. I also think the players union would have a legitimate beef if the league set up rules to reward frugality. I think the new luxury tax rules are stiff enough to mostly even the financial playing field.

The Isiah Thomas style mess is what this will avoid. It would force teams to really think about trying to buy their way to a championship. It would also produce more continuity in the league. A team like Miami or the Lakers would not be able to have one of the highest payrolls in the league and then tank one year and rebuild.

I am all for penalizing the Isiah Thomas mgmt style big time.