Taking a Round 1 Tight End

[BritCard]

Recent history shows that no WR has been taken in the top 10 since 2017. Corey Davis and Mike Williams. None in 2016. It was more common place from 2011 to 2015 where a WR was drafted in the top 10 in every draft.

So, what changed? Well, the high school and college games really shifted causing an influx to talent to be used at the WR position. Also, a ton of absolute busts were taken from 2011 to 2015 and then that was repeated in 2017. Teams a placing less emphasis on using top 10 picks at WR because of the depth of the position (players available top of round 2) and a higher priority being placed at other positions as top 10 players.

Let's look at 2021.
Jacksonville - no.
New York Jets - not at 2, maybe if they trade back.
Miami - maybe.
Atlanta - no.
Cincy - probably not.
Philadelphia - maybe.
Detroit - maybe.
Chicago - probably not.
Denver - no.
Dallas - no.
NY Giants - probably not.
San Francisco - no.
LA Chargers - maybe.
Minnesota - no.
New England - maybe.

So, of the top 15 teams, there are 6 teams which are absolute "no's". 12 teams with some sort of QB questions. 7 teams with OL needs. 7 teams with CB needs. 8 teams with EDGE player needs. So, if teams favor Devonta Smith's dominant year, Jaylen Waddle's athleticism, and Kyle Pitts freak athleticism...Chase could (though not likely) be the 4th pass catcher off the board.

It's lost value. Partly due to over supply of good players coming out, and they often run deep, look at Courtland Sutton, DK, Johnson, McLaurin, Claypool etc

And under supply of top talent at other positions such as CB and OT. There also seems to be at least 4 QB's go top 12 most years now pushing others back.

I agree with you. I think it's highly possible only one WR is off the board by 16.

 

[Harry]

Much of this change is due to cap management and the NFL & colleges moving to primarily passing attacks. This combination has created a pool of quality receivers that at times extends even into round 3. Taking a receiver in round one has not been a disastrous course of action. Rather receivers taken later often proved superior or at least equal to those taken earlier. A pool this deep has convinced many to select a player from traditionally shallower pools, like CBs or Edge Rushers. Despite the obvious need I would be astonished to see the Cards grab a first round receiver. Again this year the pool is deep and the Cards’ needs many & diverse. With the difficulties scouting this class I think the Cards will take their BPA in a different area of need. I doubt they feel the certainty that any receiver stands far above his pool.

 

[JohnnyCakes]

do whatever you can to trade up for Devonta

 

[Harry]

In case anyone out there needs something else to worry about, since I no longer mock I have been looking at the ones out there. Pitts is the selection of way too many. I can’t believe Keim reads these, let alone is influence by them, however I stunned this msny sources favor this choice. It’s true there are no certain Pro Bowl players at 16, but there will be impact players there. At best, Pitts could be a 30/500 guy, but there are definitely better options.

 

[Delmar M Lewis]

I read somewhere he ran 4.66, but in the tape he looks much more faster, like a 4.45 guy

I seem to remember another reciever who didnt run to fast we took him in the 2nd round didnt turn out to bad I think his name was Anquan Boldin hope I spelled his 1st name right though

 

[HairZach]

If that were to happen you run to the podium. He and Hopkins would be great.

I really really doubt it happens. I think he is gone no later than 6th.

CeeDee Lamb was still there at 17 last year. There IS hope. Unfortunately the right thing to do is probably just draft a CB. I don't like it mainly because it seems like defensive players usually take a year or 2 to actually become good. Jeff Odukah was a phenomenal prospect, taken 3rd overall, and he was one of the worst CBs in the league for most of last year. In fact PFF had him graded the second worst CB in coverage last year.

I want our 1st round pick to make the team better immediately.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

Pitts is legit, dude will probably make teams hate the fact they passed him up. He's better than most of the WR's in the 2021 draft imo. He's 6'6" & like 245 lbs. That being said we need a #1 CB imo first & our interior OL needs fixing like yesterday. There's multiple ways to go about it. Obviously who we sign in FA needs wise we get the rest in the draft. Big questions with SK in charge & the cap going down to between 175-180 million though. I'd rather draft a #1 CB than sign one in FA because we get them for around 10 years instead of 5, plus #1 Corners don't come cheap through FA & we don't have the cap space. Imo, the best route would be draft a #1 CB, sign a guard & #2 WR in FA & draft another guard in later rounds to develop. Although Pugh sucks, he's still signed for the 2021 season, he just doesn't suck as bad as Sweezy lol. I'm glad Sweezy's contract is up.

 

[Chopper0080]

Currently there's only Pitts ranked in round 1. In past years there have been 2 or 3 1st round worthy TE's. That constitutes a good class.

After Pitts you have Friermuth and Jordan with Round 2 grades. Then a bunch of guys with round 3 to 5 grades.

That's an average at best class with the drop from TE1 to TE4 being about 100 draft positions. And I still think Pitt's is more a big WR than a TE.

Very few TE classes have multiple day one and two players. Depth is depth and does not make a great class. This one has top end talent as well as guys like Kenny Yeboah/Nick Eubanks/Hunter Long on day 2 or 3 who could be steals. It is a good TE class.

 

[cardpa]

Currently there's only Pitts ranked in round 1. In past years there have been 2 or 3 1st round worthy TE's. That constitutes a good class.

After Pitts you have Friermuth and Jordan with Round 2 grades. Then a bunch of guys with round 3 to 5 grades.

That's an average at best class with the drop from TE1 to TE4 being about 100 draft positions. And I still think Pitt's is more a big WR than a TE.

I think the reason why Freiermuth is a second round grade is because he missed almost the entire 2020 season with an shoulder injury. He he played in 2020 I think he would have been a first round selection. I think he has a lot of Gronk qualities. Good hands, good route runner and a willing blocker.

 

[Chopper0080]

Eagles, Giants, Dolphins, Patriots, & Lions, I would pin as “most likely”.

I am not as confident as you in this.

Dolphins have some defensive needs and multiple picks. They will take a WR with one of the them, but I am not sure it will be at 3.

Eagles are going to have some massive roster holes after their cap purge. Again, they are in the market for one, but I don't know that they will use a top 10 pick.

Lions...are probably the safest spot to project one, but if they are planning on moving Stafford and have a run oriented coach, I think QB or defense could be the call here.

Giants have multiple WRs even if none are great. Again, I am not confident they will see it as a 1st round need. I could see them reaching for an EDGE player for their defense. FA may change that.

NE. Tough team to read.

 

[BritCard]

I am not as confident as you in this.

Dolphins have some defensive needs and multiple picks. They will take a WR with one of the them, but I am not sure it will be at 3.

Eagles are going to have some massive roster holes after their cap purge. Again, they are in the market for one, but I don't know that they will use a top 10 pick.

Lions...are probably the safest spot to project one, but if they are planning on moving Stafford and have a run oriented coach, I think QB or defense could be the call here.

Giants have multiple WRs even if none are great. Again, I am not confident they will see it as a 1st round need. I could see them reaching for an EDGE player for their defense. FA may change that.

NE. Tough team to read.

The other thing nobody has mentioned is that there's a crap tonne of free agent WR's that are going to fill a lot of these needs before the draft.

Samuel
JuJu
Robinson
Watkins
Jones
Perriman
Davis
Snead
Cole
Bourne
Fuller
Robinson
AB
Aghalor
Godwin
Golladay
Westbrook

There's something there for everybody

 

[Chopper0080]

The other thing nobody has mentioned is that there's a crap tonne of free agent WR's that are going to fill a lot of these needs before the draft.

Samuel
JuJu
Robinson
Watkins
Jones
Perriman
Davis
Snead
Cole
Bourne
Fuller
Robinson
AB
Aghalor
Godwin
Golladay
Westbrook

There's something there for everybody

There are definitely a ton of names available. FA will be very interesting beginning with March 17th which is when team have to be under the cap.

 

[BritCard]

There are definitely a ton of names available. FA will be very interesting beginning with March 17th which is when team have to be under the cap.

I'd love Samuel. He's still only 24 and he has the speed and experience to be a great WR2 for us. But I think he will be in high demand.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Entienne might be there at the 16th spot, and that’s not an overdraft. We are a rushing team, led the league in it for 12 weeks. We do need some weapons for Murray, Kirk, Punished-FITZ, and Isabella won’t cut it

This is really a mischaracterization. We were a leading rushing team due to kylers rushing, not due to designed rushing attack from the rb position. This is an example about how rankings can lie. We were one of the leading rushing teams but our offense wasn’t designed to be rushing heavy in the traditional sense where it demands a top flight RB at its core like a Tennessee or Cleveland offense.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Something to consider. Ja'Marr Chase is actually looking like he has an outside shot at being available at 16.

It may be one of the only selections (surtain being the other) that could budge me off oline.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Eagles, Giants, Dolphins, Patriots, & Lions, I would pin as “most likely”.

Eagles yea
Giants maybe
Dolphins maybe but if they aren’t sold on tua I doubt they start collecting weapons yet
Patriots should be but historically Bill doesn’t like spending 1sts on wr and this is a high pick
Lions no if retain Golladay even if lose jones they’ve got another youngster they like

 

[imaCafan]

In the dozen or so mocks I looked at (which doesn't mean much) 2-3 receivers and Pitts are gone by 16 in most of them. FWIW.

 

[Harry]

I was excited about that selection. Having seen him in high school on it was clear he would be great. A high school QB he was quick, agile and very smart. He wasn’t track fast but he was far from slow. He was also tough. Pitts is a good guy but he’s not Boldin. He’s not as strong or determined. He’s willing but he’s mostly just a big receiver. He will contribute but I don’t think he can dominate,

BTW I rate letting Boldin go as one of the top Cardinal mistakes ever and that’s a tough list to be incompetent enough to get on.

 

[BritCard]

Oof factor 10

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[jf-08]

Oof factor 10

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Ouch

 

[jf-08]

Something to consider. Ja'Marr Chase is actually looking like he has an outside shot at being available at 16.

Yes please.

 

[Bkbobo]

Something to consider. Ja'Marr Chase is actually looking like he has an outside shot at being available at 16.

Looking at some of his highlights, he can play inside and outside. I wouldn't be too mad having him with Dhop

 

[Dr. Jones]

OFFENSIVE LINE

This.

Protecting Kyler is priority 1.
Finding capable receivers is Priority 2.
Everything on defense is Priority 3.

 

[Chopper0080]

This.

Protecting Kyler is priority 1.
Finding capable receivers is Priority 2.
Everything on defense is Priority 3.

I don't disagree with this, but you don't spend the 16 pick on a guy who isn't special. Only one special interior OL in this draft at 16, Rashawn Slater. Problem being that some people have him top 5 or top 10 on their boards.

If we want IOL, we are staring a Keim trade-back right in the face.

 

[football karma]

I don't disagree with this, but you don't spend the 16 pick on a guy who isn't special. Only one special interior OL in this draft at 16, Rashawn Slater. Problem being that some people have him top 5 or top 10 on their boards.

If we want IOL, we are staring a Keim trade-back right in the face.

so true -- although Slater is only top 15 if the drafting team truly believes he excels at OT. If they are ? on his OT prospects, i think they pass

this works to the Cards benefit. As much as they like Josh Jones, he is still an unknown for next year. If they take Slater, its both insurance at RT, but also a starter at G if Josh works out.

finally even if no OL in round 1, the Cards likely have their choice of 3 or 4 excellent guard prospects at #48.