Tape Study: Barkevious Mingo, Luke Joeckel Texas A&M, Chance Warmack

[Mitch]

On this tape, you can take a good long look at the following players:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIms6ImVG6w

LSU

49---Barkevious Mingo, RDE
99---Sam Montgomery, LDE
46---Kevin Minter, ILB
24---Tharold Simon, CB
1---Eric Reid, FS

My Notes:

Mingo: Weak pass rush---lacks upper body strength---can't bull rush---is a classic arm tackler---once he locates the ball he's a fast chaser, but misses too many tackles because he does not have good body control and he does not break down prior to contact. The tape confirms why he only recorded 38 tackles and 4.5 sacks this past season. has the speed and athleticism to be good in coverage---but will have trouble setting and holding the edge. Best fit: 34LOLB. Grade: Late first, early second, picks 26-36.

Montgomery: Strong at the point of attack, has strong arms and can generate a quick burst to the ball, but is very inconsistent and wears down at the end of the game when the team needs him to come through. Physical bull-rusher who gets good leverage. Best fit: 43LDE---not fast enough to play the right side. Grade: 3rd round, picks 65-75.

Minter: Good size, can run and make plays sideline to sideline. Takes poor angles to the ball, doesn't read the plays fast enough. Good in coverage. Fills the holes well when schemed to. Best fit: 43--SOLB---not sure if he can hold up in the middle in the NFL. Grade: Round 4, picks 100--120.

Simon: Tall CB with very good range. Good straight line speed. Has trouble flipping the hips. Sees the ball and gets his hands on his fair share. Best fit: Nickel FS---not physical or fluid enough to start at CB. Grade: 5th Round, picks 140-160.

Reid: Reminds me a lot of Kerry Rhodes. Has good size. Not a good tackler in space. A better tackler playing up. Quick to react when up in the box---can blow up screens and draws. Tentative in deep coverage. Best fit: SS. Grade: 2nd round, picks 50-60.

Texas A&M

76---Luke Joeckel, LT
25---Ryan Swope, WR

Bonus: 15---Johnny Manziel, QB; 75---Jake Matthews, Jr., RT.

Joeckel: Stones his man cold in pass pro. Classic set-up. Keeps his arms inside the DE's frame. Good counter moves. Solid run blocker. Plays totally under control. Best fit: LT. Grade: First round, picks 1-10.

Swope: Can reach back to make catches. Catches well in tight windows. Doesn't play quite as fast as his 4.38 Combine time would suggest. Plays very tough. Reminds me a lot of Wes Welker, toughness--wise. Needs quicker feet to play like Welker, route-wise. Best fit: slot WR. Grade: 3rd round, picks 65-85.

Alabama

65---Chance Warmack, RG
75---Barrett Jones, C
76---D.J. Fluker, RT
89---Michael Williams, TE
42---Eddie Lacy, RB

Bonus: 10---A.J. McCarron, QB; 4---T.J. Yeldon, RB

Warmack: Big, strong, physical LG who plays ugly at times but gets the job done. Doesn't get off the ball as quick as you'd like---often more of a reactor, but once he gets his big mitts on you, you are not going anywhere. Not polished with the fundamentals. Stands straight up in pass pro at times and doesn't sink his hips until after initial contact. Very competitive. Could struggle with quick DTs. More of a pusher than a blocker at this point due to lack of technique. Best fit: LG in a power running scheme. Grade: 1st round, picks 10-20.

Jones: Seems too tall to play center. Like Warmack, plays ugly at times, but gets the job done. Loses balance and doesn't sink his hips well---he plays too upright and doesn't roll his hips into his drive blocks. Not a pile mover. Good snapper. Best fit: RG---but will have to hone the fundamentals and might not have the feet to be effective. Grade: 4th round, picks 110-130.

Fluker: Best technique of the Bama linemen. Best strength and forward push. Sets up a little late at times in pass pro. Not especially quick off the ball. Will struggle with speed rushers until he sets up quicker. Tough to swim around in pass pro. Very strong arms. Locks down well. Needs to steer better---needs to quicken his feet. Best fit: RT in a power running scheme. Grade: Late round 1, early round 2, picks 30-40.

Williams: Big, strong, steady and physically imposing TE who runs surprisingly smooth and crisp routes. Very good hands. More of a pusher than a blocker, but gets good leverage, plays the angles well, and creates good holes. Best fit: TE in a zone blocking scheme. Grade: Late 3rd round, early 4th, picks 95-105.

Lacy: Big, rugged and surprisingly quick RB who thrives at spinning off of first contact. Can get a quick burst going when he sees an opening. Runs a little too high initially, which slows him down some. Has a low center of gravity, especially once he bursts through a hole. Gets his feet tangled up some. Solid blocker, not much of a receiving threat. Best fit: RB in a power running scheme. Grade: Round 2, picks 30-50.

Conclusions:

Mingo does not belong in the discussions at #7, especially if Joeckel and/or Warmack are on the board. Will he ever become a genuine pass rushing threat? These 4 games makes you wonder.

Joeckel is going to be a solid starter right from the get-go.

Warmack is likely to struggle for 6-8 games and possibly more before he settles in. The reason is he is going to have to learn his new system with all the various pass protections, while at the same time learning the fundamentals.

Mingo, Montgomery, Minter and Reid are all over-rated and will get picked on potential higher than they deserve.

Swope is going to be a good, tough slot WR.

Fluker might wind up being the best pro of the Bama linemen if he goes to a team like the Giants, Seahawks or the Titans---he's the most aggressive and fundamental of the three, at this point.

Jones doesn't seem like a natural fit at C or G---might have to be tried at RT.

Williams may well be the best all-around TE in the draft. He can do it all. He can even slip behind coverage as we saw in the Pro Bowl.

Lacy will need to change his upright running style and keep his feet under him---it won't be easy.

 

[az jam]

Good analysis, Mitch. I would like us to draft OG Warmack in the first round and TE Williams in the fourth.

 

[jf-08]

Nice write up based on tape.

 

[Snakester]

The tape doesn't lie does it Walter. Nice job. Agree completely about Mingo. I watched 4 or 5 LSU games and he didn't impress me at all. I wouldn't take him in the first round let alone at 7

 

[kerouac9]

You couldn't be more wrong about Barkevious Mingo.

 

[Lomax to Green 84]

You couldn't be more wrong about Barkevious Mingo.

I agree. Mingo will blossom into a star at the NFL level.

 

[kerouac9]

I agree. Mingo will blossom into a star at the NFL level.

I think that he has star potential, but I think that Mitch is specifically wrong about Mingo's strength. He was getting double-teamed by Barrett Jones and Chance Warmack and more or less held his ground.

Yes, he'll get engulfed at the POA against NFL left and right tackles in the run game. But that's why he's an outside linebacker and not a defensive end. I think that Mingo has the frame to add a little more bulk, particularly in his lower body, which will help him anchor against the run.

I just think that people are mis-interpreting when he's supposed to be two-gapping and occupying blockers as giving up on the play.

 

[jjjcardsfan85]

Great job Mitch! Hope we go with warmack if not trade back and pick up multiple picks. Or Cooper would be nice as well.Rumors as of today have all 3 tackles going in top 5.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

Good post, thanks for the read.

 

[Garthshort]

Mitch, this is the third time I've tried to post this but the first two failed, I believe. Just hope all three don't suddenly appear. The guy I like is DJ Fluker. Going on the assumption that the top three OT's are gone before Arizona picks, I think that Fluker could compete with Massie for the RT job, with the loser moving inside. Thus we'd have insurance at both guard and tackle. Also, read that he can possibly play LT, and we might be able to move back a few spots and get him.

 

[BW52]

Just say no to Mingo.

 

[Chopper0080]

I find it very funny how different people view edge rushers, and in this case Mingo. In reality, it really comes dow to what you want out of your edge rusher. Do you want someone who is going to get after the QB or do you want to try and find the most complete player? This is the primary difference between Von Miller and Sam Acho. Now, I am sure everyone would now say they would prefer to have Von Miller, but if you consider what he does, he is not the complete player Sam Acho is as an OLB. In understand Acho plays in the 3-4 and Miller plays in the 4-3, but Miller is used as an edge rusher in passing situations similar to what the Cardinals should expect from their OLBs.

This is the choice our coaches have to consider when it comes down to drafting an edge rusher. What are you willing to sacrifice to either get consistent pressure on the QB or to get a player who can rush, stop the run and cover? IMO, Mingo should be an incredibly desirable option because he brings elite quickness and burst off the edge which allows him to be a rare pressure player off the edge. Are you going to give up something in your rush defense? Of course you are. There just aren't many players in any draft that are able to be a 10+ sack player, consistently stop the run and play in coverage. This is not to say that Mingo doesn't come with some questions, he does, but he also brings the edge pressure potential that this team hasn't seen since Simeon Rice.

So, the question becomes, what do you want out of your OLBs? Do you want another Sam Acho, or do you want something different?

 

[Mitch]

I find it very funny how different people view edge rushers, and in this case Mingo. In reality, it really comes dow to what you want out of your edge rusher. Do you want someone who is going to get after the QB or do you want to try and find the most complete player? This is the primary difference between Von Miller and Sam Acho. Now, I am sure everyone would now say they would prefer to have Von Miller, but if you consider what he does, he is not the complete player Sam Acho is as an OLB. In understand Acho plays in the 3-4 and Miller plays in the 4-3, but Miller is used as an edge rusher in passing situations similar to what the Cardinals should expect from their OLBs.

This is the choice our coaches have to consider when it comes down to drafting an edge rusher. What are you willing to sacrifice to either get consistent pressure on the QB or to get a player who can rush, stop the run and cover? IMO, Mingo should be an incredibly desirable option because he brings elite quickness and burst off the edge which allows him to be a rare pressure player off the edge. Are you going to give up something in your rush defense? Of course you are. There just aren't many players in any draft that are able to be a 10+ sack player, consistently stop the run and play in coverage. This is not to say that Mingo doesn't come with some questions, he does, but he also brings the edge pressure potential that this team hasn't seen since Simeon Rice.

So, the question becomes, what do you want out of your OLBs? Do you want another Sam Acho, or do you want something different?

Very well put.

At #7, however, one would hope for a Von Miller type who can pressure the QB.

If Mingo were a better tackler you could make a case for drafting him as an all-around 34OLB---but he's not even that. He's an arm tackler...one of the reasons why he played a full season last year and came up with a paltry 38 tackles.

Did you view the entire tape I put up here?---4 games of Mingo highlighted. If you didn't, I recommend Chopper that you go back and watch it. Mingo rarely even gets near the QB---he's not strong at the point of attack---he has no bull rush---he's not going to be able to maintain the edge in a 34.

Watch him with the game on the line versus Alabama. LSU is ahead and has to stop A.J. McCarron and the Bama offense and they win the game. Watch Mingo's effort on that drive. Play after play on that last two minute drive, Mingo takes three steps and gets stopped in his tracks and then stops even trying.

I understand your praise for Mingo's athleticism, as you are an excellent judge of talent. In this case, I think if you look more closely at the tape, you might change your mind about Mingo's prospects as a #7 pick. It took me a few times---because I loved that first step of his, right from the very first snap.

 

[kerouac9]

At #7, however, one would hope for a Von Miller type who can pressure the QB.

Nonsense. Von Miller may very well be a once in a generation type player. His workout numbers certainly suggested stuff. If that's what you need to be convinced to draft a rush linebacker in the Top 10, you're never going to draft one.

That's unacceptable. Especially coming from a guy who's suggested that Ziggy Ansah is a guy that the Cards could/should be targeting. THAT'S a guy who's conditioning is so bad that he's frequently tapping his helmet to get off the field, and constantly gives up on plays when he's been locked up by an offensive lineman.

 

[Duckjake]

Nonsense. Von Miller may very well be a once in a generation type player. His workout numbers certainly suggested stuff. If that's what you need to be convinced to draft a rush linebacker in the Top 10, you're never going to draft one.

That's unacceptable. Especially coming from a guy who's suggested that Ziggy Ansah is a guy that the Cards could/should be targeting. THAT'S a guy who's conditioning is so bad that he's frequently tapping his helmet to get off the field, and constantly gives up on plays when he's been locked up by an offensive lineman.

Wait a minute. Didn't Mitch just write that at #7 you would want a Von Miller type player?

I'm confused.

Anyway it looks like the Cards are going to move Acho over to the SILB position which is where he's best suited to play. He'll be our Okeafor/Haggens over there. Right now it looks like Alexander is the guy at WILB so I would really like to see the Cards get a guy who can be a Bertand Berry circa 2004.

 

[JeffGollin]

Mitch, this is the third time I've tried to post this but the first two failed, I believe. Just hope all three don't suddenly appear. The guy I like is DJ Fluker. Going on the assumption that the top three OT's are gone before Arizona picks, I think that Fluker could compete with Massie for the RT job, with the loser moving inside. Thus we'd have insurance at both guard and tackle. Also, read that he can possibly play LT, and we might be able to move back a few spots and get him.

I could see Fluker as a trade-down option if the other 5 O-linemen were off our board at #7.

But head on head - who'd you rather have - Cooper or Fluker? (It might come down to that). My understanding is that Cooper would fit in either as an OG or RT, whereas Fluker was more a RT major and an OG minor. Both are considered good run blockers.

Meanwhile, we have a greater need at LT than we do at RT, and neither of these guys project there. I wouldn't commit hari kari if we drafted Fluker, but the CW in "Guru Land" is that, while Fluker is good, Cooper is closer to elite.

 

[kerouac9]

Wait a minute. Didn't Mitch just write that at #7 you would want a Von Miller type player?

I'm confused.

Anyway it looks like the Cards are going to move Acho over to the SILB position which is where he's best suited to play. He'll be our Okeafor/Haggens over there. Right now it looks like Alexander is the guy at WILB so I would really like to see the Cards get a guy who can be a Bertand Berry circa 2004.

I think you mean "WOLB" and "SOLB". Othwise, I'm confused."

I read Mitch's comment as being, "If you're going to draft a pass rusher at #7, he needs to be a Von Miller type who can pressure the QB." There's no question that Barkevious Mingo can pressure the QB, so I read that has being the level of talent that justifies such a huge pick.

I'd argue that you could go a decade in the NFL without seeing the kind of talent that Miller has anywhere in the draft. Mitch's evaluations of talent tend to be more generous than mine, so I don't know. But based on that kind of comment, Mitch may exclude Dion Jordan from the #7 pick, as well. He hasn't shown that he can pressure the passer at a Von Miller level, either.

Mingo had 8 sacks in 2011 in a part-time role as a situational rusher. I have little reservation in saying that he'll be able to get to the QB at the next level.

 

[Mitch]

Mitch, this is the third time I've tried to post this but the first two failed, I believe. Just hope all three don't suddenly appear. The guy I like is DJ Fluker. Going on the assumption that the top three OT's are gone before Arizona picks, I think that Fluker could compete with Massie for the RT job, with the loser moving inside. Thus we'd have insurance at both guard and tackle. Also, read that he can possibly play LT, and we might be able to move back a few spots and get him.

Fluker may turn out to be the one All-Pro of the first 4 tackles.

When I was watching the Bama tapes yesterday and today, as much as I wanted to focus on Warmack and Jones, I found myself drawn over to Fluker time and time again.

He had a 98.5 grade by the coaching staff at Bama this past season---which is extremely high praise from a very exacting coaching staff.

It's not just how powerful he is---it's his long arms and big hands. And what I was very impresses to see is that he has made tremendous improvement in his kick-slide (Jarvis Jones only beats him once all game, and on that play Jones was able to circle his way back to the QB McCarron who double-clutched and held the ball too long)---and then watch how he runs on the second level. He's like a freight train half way between stops.

Plus, on MJ yesterday, Daryn College was stating how much the new coaches are emphasizing the running game and how important it is to the team's success,a dn how the plan is to waer defenses down and, most of all, to run the ball so as to run out the clock at the end of games. The commitment to the running game, College said, has been made very clear from day one.

Check this article and the video inside it: (check out TE Michael Williams too---Fluker is #76, Williams is #89---imagine having that tandem in BA's offense!

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-s...-50-alabama-ot-d-j-fluker-012151033--nfl.html

 

[Chopper0080]

I think you mean "WOLB" and "SOLB". Othwise, I'm confused."

I read Mitch's comment as being, "If you're going to draft a pass rusher at #7, he needs to be a Von Miller type who can pressure the QB." There's no question that Barkevious Mingo can pressure the QB, so I read that has being the level of talent that justifies such a huge pick.

I'd argue that you could go a decade in the NFL without seeing the kind of talent that Miller has anywhere in the draft. Mitch's evaluations of talent tend to be more generous than mine, so I don't know. But based on that kind of comment, Mitch may exclude Dion Jordan from the #7 pick, as well. He hasn't shown that he can pressure the passer at a Von Miller level, either.

Mingo had 8 sacks in 2011 in a part-time role as a situational rusher. I have little reservation in saying that he'll be able to get to the QB at the next level.

Yeah. Mingo to me is a lock for 8+ sacks in a season. There are just too many passing situations that he will face during a season for that not to be true IMO. Tackles just won't be able to handle his speed. That being said, you could probably argue the same for Lemonier or Jordan as well. Where I have seen Mingo seperate himself from other edge rushers in this draft is his first step. It is elite. That is the reason I believe I can live with the other areas he needs to work on. I saw him give more effort in Mitch's link than what Mitch gives him credit for. I don't expect or want Mingo to outmuscle his defenders as much as I want him to turn the corner to the QB with speed and quickness resulting in either sacks or offensive holds.

My praise of Mingo makes me laugh because I was so for drafting David DeCastro last year and then waffled at the end between him and Melvin Ingram. Now this year I have been so sold on the idea of adding Cooper or Warmack, and now I would be more than content to draft Mingo in the 1st and then Kyle Long in the 2nd.\

My top 7
1-Luke Joeckel
2-Dion Jordan
3a-Jonathan Cooper
3b-Chance Warmack
3c-Barkevious Mingo
6-Lane Johnson
7-Star Lotulelei

 

[Chopper0080]

Fluker may turn out to be the All-Pro of the first 4 tackles.

When I was watching the Bama tapes yesterday and today, as much as I wanted to focus on Warmack and Jones, I found myself drawn over to Fluker time and time again.

He had a 98.5 grade by the coaching staff at Bama this past season---which is extremely high praise from a very exacting coaching staff.

It's not just how powerful he is---it's his long arms and big hands. And what I was very impresses to see is that he has made tremendous improvement in his kick-slide (Jarvis Jones only beats him once all game, and on that play Jones was able to circle his way back to the QB McCarron who double-clutched and held the ball too long)---and then watch how he runs on the second level. He's like a freight train half way between stops.

Check this article and the video inside it:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-s...-50-alabama-ot-d-j-fluker-012151033--nfl.html

Fluker may have improved on his kick slide, but it still does not look smooth to me. I would be ok with the idea if I hadn't seen Massie make such an improvement over the 2nd half of the season against NFL talent. Fluker gives us 3 RTs on the roster which isn't a good thing IMO.

 

[kerouac9]

Where I have seen Mingo seperate himself from other edge rushers in this draft is his first step. It is elite. That is the reason I believe I can live with the other areas he needs to work on.

Yeah, for Mitch believing that Arians has assembled an elite group of teachers, he doesn't seem to have a lot of faith that these guys can actually--you know--teach.

Mingo has elite physical tools, he just plays out of control with those tools. His upside is higher than Dion Jordan, who is much more polished as a pass rusher. If this staff believes that they can teach the talent, then they should be comfortable drafting Mingo and getting him to do the little things that will take him from good prospect to great player.

 

[Mitch]

Fluker may have improved on his kick slide, but it still does not look smooth to me. I would be ok with the idea if I hadn't seen Massie make such an improvement over the 2nd half of the season against NFL talent. Fluker gives us 3 RTs on the roster which isn't a good thing IMO.

I agree---and have been thinking the exact same way---but what we don't know yet is what BA's proto-typical tackles are. In Pittsburgh they always had maulers at tackle...which hurt them some in pass pro---but I get the feeling that whenever BA feels threatened on the edge he goes into his double TE formation or he puts a TE to the help side, either by lining him up there or by motioning him over, or into from a short slot.

The point is that BA is confident in his protection packages.

The reason why BA and HC might be inclined to slide Massie down to guard is that he's not a mauler in the running game. The off-tackle play is a staple in BA's offense, a must-be-able-to run-well play.

When I watched the SEC Championship game---Bama runs the exact same off-tackle play that BA loves---I am sure he saw that play...TE Michael Williams kicked out the edge and D.J. Fluker hammered open the door. Eddie Lacy raced 30 yards for the score.

I don't think you or I would draft Fluker because of the tackles we already have, but I could see why BA would want to.

Notice too that BA went as far as to call Levi Brown "elite"---yes, there's one thing he is elite at---it's being a mauler in the running game. It would appear that this is what BA thinks of first and foremost when he thinks of his tackles, and if that is indeed the case, Fluker could be higher on the board than we even realize.

What this also would mean, imo, is that speed tackles such as Lane Johnson would not be a consideration at all, except a guard, where quick feet help the pulling, trapping and kick-out schemes.

Come to think of it---if the criteria begins and ends with being a mauler in the running game, Fluker would have it all over any tackle in this draft.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Why think about Mingo if Jones of Georgia is on the board

 

[kerouac9]

Why think about Mingo if Jones of Georgia is on the board

Because Mingo is the better prospect:

This is what happens when you bomb your pro day. Jones’s 4.88 forty, 30.5-inch vertical jump, and 9-foot-4 broad jump are poor numbers -- especially for a smaller edge rusher like Jones, who tips the scales at only 245 pounds. Here is a complete list of edge rushers drafted since 1998 that had a 4.80 forty or worse at under 250 pounds: Casey Dailey, Bryant McNeal, Cheta Ozougwu, and Kroy Biermann. Biermann has been a solid contributor, but he is the only one on that list with a career sack. Jones’s production is good, but not quite good enough to outweigh bad pre-draft workouts. Compare Jones to a player like Terrell Suggs, who had a disappointing 4.84 forty at the Combine but "are you sure that’s not a typo?"-level production in college. Suggs had 44 sacks in 36 games, compared to Jones’ 28.5 in 34 games.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/sackseer-2013

 

[Jetstream Green]

Because Mingo is the better prospect:



http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/sackseer-2013

Sure, Mingo just had bad luck at getting to the QB in college and Jones just kept getting lucky again and again getting to the QB. I personally want the Cards to get very lucky and draft Jones instead if they go pass rusher. Mingo will be a good player to me, but for me he is not up to the level of Jones