The Curious Case of Patrick Mahomes

Mitch

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http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/...work-draft-experts-break-down-patrick-mahomes

There are two ways to look at QB Patrick Mahomes---(1) with great excitement and anticipation (Daniel Jeremiah) based on physical gifts and improvisational skills; (2) with profound skepticism (Bucky Brooks) based on Mahomes' penchant for abandoning the script and going into total scramble around and try to make plays on the run mode.

The tantalizing thing about Mahomes is that he makes one excited but very nervous all at the same time.

So this morning I went back and re-watched all his snaps in his record breaking 2016 performance versus Oklahoma in which he passed for a gaudy 734 yards and put up 819 yards of total offense.

One would think that this game tape would excite the heck out of anyone who watches it -- and yet, is it possible to watch one of college football greatest single performances and come away feeling skeptical about Mahomes as a fit in the NFL? You can decide for yourself -- it's worth the 20 minutes to watch it.

For me, I come away from that tape well aware of Mahomes' strong arm and cagy maneuverability on a plethora of broken plays and mad scrambles -- and yet I come away from this tape wondering how any NFL team is going to try to tame this maverick. My conclusion is that his game is made to order for the CFL or AFL, but anyone who takes him in the NFL is going to have to allow Patrick to be Patrick, because taming him and trying to tailor him to a pro style offense is going to be near impossible.

For every plus in Mahomes' game there is a distinct minus.

Big arm -- yes -- but rarely does Mahomes step into a throw, which makes the majority of his throws flicks of the wrist -- which he got away with for the most part in college, but won't more often than not in the NFL. The phenomenal thing about this Oklahoma game is that Mahomes missed numerous wide open deep passes, otherwise he actually could have thrown for over 800 yards. He only connected on one deep TD pass and most of his connections were throws of 3-15 yards.

Great scrambler -- yes -- but it puts his offensive line at a clear disadvantage. In the Oklahoma game two TDs were called back because of holding calls because Mahomes' line never really knows which way he is going to flush -- and that's his game -- the flush game.

Touch -- yes -- Mahomes doesn't throw all at one speed. He powers the ball at times and lots it at others. But his floated balls, many of which he throws into tight windows are often ripe for picking by the CBs and Ss.

Good runner -- yes -- if he sees an opening he'll take it, and he's pretty good at running the read option on occasion as he did when he made a good fake and ran for a TD. The flip side is that he often holds the ball like a loaf of bread and in the pros that loaf of bread will be swiped and eaten in a flash.

Good pocket presence -- questionable --- for Mahomes he gives the pocket about a 2 second chance and then he's on the run. He throws good strikes on skinny posts and check-downs from the pocket, but that's about it. He tries to make the majority of his deep passes while on the run.

Good vision -- yes and no -- he's often too late in making any throws over 20 yards.

If the Cardinals draft Mahomes, the big question is-- what HC are they drafting him for? I can say this with 100% certainty, Mahomes would drive BA crazy...not only because of the unpredictability of Mahomes' scrambles, but because of the chaotic penalties that go with it.

if the Cardinals draft Mahomes, they really need to hire an innovative HC who could cater the offense to Mahomes' style of play...or hire an OC like Chip Kelly who might be able do so.

People are comparing Mahomes to Matt Stafford, but Stafford can beat you from the pocket and I am not sure that Mahomes can. Mahomes likens himself to Aaron Rodgers, because of all the improvising. But Rodgers has pocket presence and takes what the defense gives him. Rodgers is much more prone to step up into the pocket to make plays, whereas Mahomes only steps up into the pocket when he is bolting it.

Here's the Oklahoma tape...I'd be very interested to hear your take.

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Buckybird

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Totally agree Mitch, which is why I wouldn't draft him in round 1, but would probably roll the dice in round 2 based off his skills. To think people here still don't think playing in the air raid system doesn't matter are making a huge mistake based on history, though he's more talented than those other guys.

I've been saying for months now, many of his "floaters" are ripe pickens in the NFL pardon the pun. :lol: .

I found it very interesting that last night Neil Lomax was on Fox 10 saying he wouldn't draft QBs in round 1 because of their lack of preparation & understanding of the passing game because of the college spread & shotgun on every play. Neil also said he thinks NFL coaches need to dummy down the offenses to help the learn & mature. Interesting that Lomax would say that since he came from the run & shoot & was in shotgun almost every play at PSU. Hmmmm
 

overseascardfan

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Totally agree Mitch, which is why I wouldn't draft him in round 1, but would probably roll the dice in round 2 based off his skills. To think people here still don't think playing in the air raid system doesn't matter are making a huge mistake based on history, though he's more talented than those other guys.

I've been saying for months now, many of his "floaters" are ripe pickens in the NFL pardon the pun. :lol: .

I found it very interesting that last night Neil Lomax was on Fox 10 saying he wouldn't draft QBs in round 1 because of their lack of preparation & understanding of the passing game because of the college spread & shotgun on every play. Neil also said he thinks NFL coaches need to dummy down the offenses to help the learn & mature. Interesting that Lomax would say that since he came from the run & shoot & was in shotgun almost every play at PSU. Hmmmm
Maybe Lomax is speaking from personal experience and can attest for the difficulty in transition.
 

Goldfield

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Yeah I watched that same tape I'm not on the Mahomes train at all. Let him be fools gold for another franchise I see way too much play ground QB I don't think you can take that out of him. He is held back as a QB because of his arm strength.
 

BW52

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Sounds like Jake Plummer version 2.The 9 TD passes with 25_ ints.Skeptical is my view
 

Buckybird

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BTW B-train just said on the radio he thinks BA will retire after this season for whatever it's worth.
 

Jetstream Green

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Mahomes has arm strength no doubt but he also has accuracy which is what makes his arm strength tempting, the big question is if a coaching staff is able to craft what he has upstairs to mentally and emotionally use his traits. The saying that a QB needs to go to the right team or coaching staff is never more prevalent then when discussing Mahomes. You know his physical and throwing ability but drafting him comes down to not as much as a team believing in Mahomes but believing in their ability to coach
 

JeffGollin

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When I go back and review the top QB's under BA's tutilege, The names, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer come to mind.

They're all big, vertical, pocket guys who can beat you deep. Big. Ben had the added dimension of running over guys when forced to move outside the pocket. For the sake of argument, we might as well add Stanton to the mix.

Do you see a pattern here?

If I'm BA, I'm not so sure I'd lean to Mahome or Watson who are considered to be more horizontal outside the pocket playmakers. Trubitsky, Kizer or Webb would better fit the style BA has shown he prefers.

If BA likes one of these guys, which one is it most likely to be?

And while we're at it, what about Peterman (who profiles as sound, consistent and heady but less athletic than the other top QB's?
 

ajcardfan

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BTW B-train just said on the radio he thinks BA will retire after this season for whatever it's worth.

It's a pretty big deal if it's true. BA will not want to use the #13 pick on a kid who can't help him win this year. Which would mean none of these QBs in round 1.


Personally, I think the Cards are setting themselves up for a possible trade if a QB is there at #13 and some team decides they want him and are worried he will be off the board soon. I don't buy a QB in round 1 at all.
 

Snakester

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He is definitely a gun slinger. I see a bigger more talented Russel Wilson. The guy could start day one to me the way he plays the game. He checks off all the boxes talent wise. I wouldn't change a thing about how he plays that's just who he is.

He's going to make a lot of plays out of nothing and drive defenses crazy. There's no way to defend against this type of QB. He's quick to react and make the throw. I think the game will slow down for him mentally after a couple years.

His downside the first couple years will be a lot of interceptions. Mainly on his deep balls which aren't that accurate. If BA can restrain him just a little from throwing deep until he gets his timing down with his receivers I think that will cut down on the interceptions.

There are two quarterbacks in this draft that I would take in the first round. Trubisky and Mahomes.
 

cardpa

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BTW B-train just said on the radio he thinks BA will retire after this season for whatever it's worth.

If this is anywhere near a decent possibility then the team should wait until next year to draft a QB. Let the new guy have the say in who he wants. Not the guy headed out the door.
 

Krangodnzr

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Why he won't automatically bust. Good in depth article.

Watching Tape with Patrick Mahomes: The Myth of the Air Raid Quarterback

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...letter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=nfl

Honestly Southpaw, I bet that only a few of Mahomes' detractors on this board actually watched a Texas Tech game.

When I saw him play, I saw an elite college QB who had total command of his offense. I saw elite arm strength, only rivaled by one or two NFL QBs. I saw accuracy despite horrid footwork. I saw elusiveness and escapability. Mahomes is hard to sack in the same way Wilson is. He is strong for a 6'2 guy, very sturdily built. He likely won't be injury prone.

He gets into trouble because he throws so many homerun throws, but Texas Tech required him to do so and play flawless football for any chance to win. His defense was worse than ASUs!!!
 

Chopper0080

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Honestly Southpaw, I bet that only a few of Mahomes' detractors on this board actually watched a Texas Tech game.

When I saw him play, I saw an elite college QB who had total command of his offense. I saw elite arm strength, only rivaled by one or two NFL QBs. I saw accuracy despite horrid footwork. I saw elusiveness and escapability. Mahomes is hard to sack in the same way Wilson is. He is strong for a 6'2 guy, very sturdily built. He likely won't be injury prone.

He gets into trouble because he throws so many homerun throws, but Texas Tech required him to do so and play flawless football for any chance to win. His defense was worse than ASUs!!!

For me, he is Aaron Rodgers. Arm, mobility, accuracy on the move, and his reported work ethic. He just fits.
 

Krangodnzr

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For me, he is Aaron Rodgers. Arm, mobility, accuracy on the move, and his reported work ethic. He just fits.

For sure, I see a lot of Aaron Rodgers game and a lot of the same criticisms.

They both played in wonky unorthodox offenses. They both were known for taking risks.

I think aside from his scrambling around, Arians would love his homerun mentality.
 

wit3card

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My goodness, I hope the Cards stay away from every O-line player of Texas Tech ... gosh ... 4 man pressure and 2 have a free shoot at the QB before he starts to scramble. Most of the penalties of holding are made before Mahomes even starts to scramble, the holding is already there when Mahomes recognizes that the O-line fails him XD the flag comes in as mahomes runs away from the pressure.

This O-line might be good at run blocking but pass pro ... not at all.

On the other hand, Mahomes footwork is horrid at times, his scrabmeling ability is good but some throws are ... just no goes. They float or are into good coverage. In the NFL he would have thrown at least 4 INT's in that game alone.

I understand why you can be excited about him, I can understand you if you want no part of him.

But at the end, if Keim and BA think he could do it, they should draft him, correcting footwork seemed doable since Palmer did it last year, and if Mahomes manages that an can understand a Pro Style Offense ... that could mean mayhem for everyone that has to defend.

But same goes for Watson and his problems and Webb and Turbisky and so on.

I don't think this QB class is that bad, I think that this class has to many guys where you see the problems to easy. Last years QB were called great, but expect for Prescott and Wentz it was pretty lame. Same is for the other classes in the last 5 years (only 2012 was an expection 6 years ago with Luck, Wilson, Cousins, Tannehill and Osweiler[Foles, Weeden, Keenum, Griffin backups/possible starters] and only 3 of them had a 1st round grade and only 7 1-3 round; 2011 has produced Newton, Dalton, Tyrod Taylor and Kaeprernick

2013 - Glennon will be a starter (Smith, Barkley Backups, and Dysert has a chance if we don't draft a QB)
2014 - Derek Carr, Bortels[how long?] are starters, Garappolo maybe if traded and Bridgewater will hopefully see the field again in 2018 but will he be the same? (Savage, Mettenburger, McCarron are backups)
2015 - Jameis Winston and Mariota, (Hundley, Mannion, Petty Backups)
2016 - Prescott, Wentz, Goff is proably already damaged good (Lynch, Cook, Hackenberg, Hogan, Jones Backups)
2017 - Trubisky, Watson, Kizer, Mahomes have 1-2 round grades than Webb, Peterman and Kaya have 3rd round grades

2013 was maybe the worst class Glennon the only survivor that can amount to something, 2014 has some doubts but Carr is good and Garappolo has maybe the chance to show if he is more than just a backup, 2015 only produced 2 guys and Mariota already had 2 big injuries, 2016 Wentz and Prescott may be good, Goff is probalby already damaged by a bad HC but we will see.

So I'm okay if we draft a QB this year.
 

JeffGollin

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What's missing from this year's QB class is the powerful "big dawg" who can immediately own the position and lead his team to the promised land.

In fact, there are a couple of them in most drafts and their presence drives the number of riskier QB's further down the board. (i.e. the top of the draft is thin in dominating QB talent, and the dropoff from 1st to 2nd round talent isn't that great. What we might find is a lot of 2nd round talent being overdrafted into the 1st round in order for teams to take advantage of the extra contract year afforded 1st round draftees).

There is no QB in this draft who, however special in some part of his game, doesn't make you edgy just before you pull the trigger on him. Doesn't mean teams shouldn't pull the trigger - it all boils down to your risk tolerance. (If it were me, I'd minimize my risk and hedge my bets by trading down to the late 1st round to get my QB and recoup part of the risk via the extra mid-round pick. And if my guy wasn't there late in the 1st, I'd go back to Plan B and draft the BPA).
 

Krangodnzr

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What's missing from this year's QB class is the powerful "big dawg" who can immediately own the position and lead his team to the promised land.

In fact, there are a couple of them in most drafts and their presence drives the number of riskier QB's further down the board. (i.e. the top of the draft is thin in dominating QB talent, and the dropoff from 1st to 2nd round talent isn't that great. What we might find is a lot of 2nd round talent overdrafted into the 1st round in order for teams to take advantage of the extra contract year afforded 1st round players).

There is no QB in this draft who, however special in some part of his game, doesn't make you edgy just before you pull the trigger on him. Doesn't mean teams shouldn't pull the trigger - it all boils down to your risk tolerance. (If it were me, I'd minimize my risk and hedge my bets by trading down to the late 1st round to get my QB and recoup part of the risk via the extra mid-round pick. And if my guy wasn't there late in the 1st, I'd go back to Plan B and draft the BPA).

I definitely agree, but I think the case that is being made is that the 6th best QB is better than the 4th best QB in most classes. When you look at the QB rankings there are a number of QBs in this draft that could realistically develop into starting QBs in the future. Mahomes, Trubisky, Webb, Watson, Kizer, and Dobbs all look like decent QB prospects. Most years the fifth guy is really only being looked at as a longshot to even make a roster.

I think that it is very risky to draft one of those QBs in the 1st round this year, but you know whats more risky? Not having a good QB when Palmer retires. I think the braintrust needs to identify who they think can sit for a year and develop and draft that guy, and get him where you can get him.

Let's just say that Watson becomes a good starting QB and the Cardinals pass on him to take a good starting CB, would that be worth it 3 years from now? I don't think so.
 

Solar7

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What's missing from this year's QB class is the powerful "big dawg" who can immediately own the position and lead his team to the promised land.

In fact, there are a couple of them in most drafts and their presence drives the number of riskier QB's further down the board. (i.e. the top of the draft is thin in dominating QB talent, and the dropoff from 1st to 2nd round talent isn't that great. What we might find is a lot of 2nd round talent being overdrafted into the 1st round in order for teams to take advantage of the extra contract year afforded 1st round draftees).

There is no QB in this draft who, however special in some part of his game, doesn't make you edgy just before you pull the trigger on him. Doesn't mean teams shouldn't pull the trigger - it all boils down to your risk tolerance. (If it were me, I'd minimize my risk and hedge my bets by trading down to the late 1st round to get my QB and recoup part of the risk via the extra mid-round pick. And if my guy wasn't there late in the 1st, I'd go back to Plan B and draft the BPA).

You lose control doing this, though. The instant you move back from our spot, teams start smelling blood in the water to trade up for "their guy." As early as pick 23, the Giants could consider a QB, the Texans are VERY likely to grab a QB at 25, and then the Chiefs at 27 could make the pick - not to mention that Cleveland, SF, Chicago, and NYJ all pick in the first 7 picks of the 2nd round and are all DESPERATE for a QB, especially if they love one of the specific guys. That's seven teams to be concerned about over four guys at best - and I think Kizer is going to be a bust, so in my mind, it's 3.

Is an extra 3rd rounder really worth potentially not getting the guy we loved? Is another Brandon Williams going to make us swallow the bitter pill of having no future at QB in 2018 any easier?
 

JeffGollin

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You lose control doing this, though. The instant you move back from our spot, teams start smelling blood in the water to trade up for "their guy." As early as pick 23, the Giants could consider a QB, the Texans are VERY likely to grab a QB at 25, and then the Chiefs at 27 could make the pick - not to mention that Cleveland, SF, Chicago, and NYJ all pick in the first 7 picks of the 2nd round and are all DESPERATE for a QB, especially if they love one of the specific guys. That's seven teams to be concerned about over four guys at best - and I think Kizer is going to be a bust, so in my mind, it's 3.

Is an extra 3rd rounder really worth potentially not getting the guy we loved? Is another Brandon Williams going to make us swallow the bitter pill of having no future at QB in 2018 any easier?
Burning question is: "Is there any QB we really love?" Enough to draft at #13? Enough to lose a pick by trading up to #9?
 

Jetstream Green

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I can see on draft day when Mahomes is there at #13 this board goes in total chaos mode....:koolaid::band::pullhair::madarms::gun:

I think this coaching staff is in love with Mahomes and if he is there and they draft him... I am going to play that LSU tape of him from 2015 and smile all night :)
 

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