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What is the speculation for the reason?
The Market 2022-2023-2024
- Thread starter Folster
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What is the speculation for the reason?
Mine is for Twitter.
Yep
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elindholm
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So today's crazy popping stock was Invitae (NVTA), some small genetic diagnostic company that's been publicly traded since early 2015. It almost quadrupled today, but what's weird in this case is that it didn't reach new highs -- in fact it's still well short of where it was a year ago. I haven't looked into whether it just had a good earnings report.
But when that other one did its craziness last week, HKD or whatever it was, I read one analysis speculating that it was a case of mistaken identity -- people were confusing it with the Hong Kong dollar, or maybe some other company. So with all of the activity with Nvidia (NVDA) today, could it be that NVTA got swept up in similar confusion?
But when that other one did its craziness last week, HKD or whatever it was, I read one analysis speculating that it was a case of mistaken identity -- people were confusing it with the Hong Kong dollar, or maybe some other company. So with all of the activity with Nvidia (NVDA) today, could it be that NVTA got swept up in similar confusion?
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Your warning in chart form.
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However, the trend only started this year. The VIX was well below 20 at times last year.
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LOL. We saw that with ZM and ZOOM during the pandemic.
Rudimentary chart my friend. Very rudimentary.
The VIX has long term moving averages over decades (monthly charts) that are still in very healthy positions to the upside. Now, this doesn't mean that we can't go lower on the short term. It's just that's those longer term charts take precedence over the short term and that whatever short term trend we have in the VIX we are fighting a longer term uptrend overall. Kinda like a buy the dip version of the VIX.
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Agreed. In this environment especially.. it's not a bad idea. We are extremely stretched to the upside on a short term basis. At the very least, it wouldn't be a bad idea to have some hedging or take profit off the table. As much as many want to believe the bear market is over.. it just doesn't pan out. Bear market rallies are fierce like this for a reason. They suck back in as many longs as they can before the next leg lower. Of course, it all depends on whether you believe it's over or not.
disney up 25% since I bought. Short term win for now.
elindholm
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We must have bought right around the same time. It's nice to get the timing right once in a while.
Fixedthatforme
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I should've kept my original price target of sub $100. That would've been a nice ride.
elindholm
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At least you didn't buy it short to spite me.
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I hope my original price target helped someone and the revision didn't deter anyone. We all knew it was approaching an attractive valuation.
Calling the bottom is tough. I wish I had the same conviction with DIS that I had with GOOG. I need to remember Warren Buffett's advice about buying a great company at a fair price. You rarely get the great companies at a steal.
If you want a great company then it isn't DIS.
Their stock might be ok but it's a company I hate. I'm still thinking this is a dead cat too and that we haven't seen the bottom yet. I've been thinking again of selling most of my holdings and then buying back in bit when things start flipping again.
elindholm
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There's definitely a case to be made for that. It interests me how the tax laws are written to discourage exactly this sort of thing. Someone thought carefully about how best to incentivize the kind of long-term investing that is most helpful to publicly traded companies.
I agree that DIS has a darker side to it. It's not quite bad enough for me to avoid it on ESG grounds, but I did have to do a bit of soul-searching before making the play.
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Ignoring taxes is one of those things is one of those things that I've been really trying to do for awhile now. It still gets to me at times. As I've gotten more experience though I've seen that it's usually not good to worry about long vs short. I shot myself in the foot a couple times holding too long due to it and I would have have out ahead by paying the higher rate.
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If you want a great company then it isn't DIS.
I'm still thinking this is a dead cat too and that we haven't seen the bottom yet. I've been thinking again of selling most of my holdings and then buying back in bit when things start flipping again.
It might be a good time to drop some holdings in which you've lost conviction.
Your analysis definitely played a part in my purchase.
I like Disney movies and parks, it's a stable, boring company in my eyes as an investment.
used the schwab portfolio builder to set some trades for monday morning to get back into some long term aggressive low fee ETFs
Good luck brochacho!
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The numbers coming out of China don't look good. I have no idea if they can be relied upon, but I'd imagine they aren't better than what was released.
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