The Phoenix Suns will not sign Marcus Camby!

[Joe Mama]

There are several people in this message for talking about the Phoenix Suns signing Marcus Camby this off-season. Obviously the Suns have surprised me in the past, but I am very, very confident that they will not sign or even go after Marcus Camby this summer. They certainly are not going to offer him anything above the mid-level exception.

High-priced, injured players had just killed the Phoenix Suns ability to be competitive in free agency for the last several seasons. While Camby would not get a maximum contract lets not forget that they already have $6 million tied up in Howard Eiseley. Also, counting on a medical exemption if he gets injured is ridiculous. They are incredibly rare even when the players are on the injured list for long, long periods of time.

Joe Mama

 

[F-Dog]

Camby is the Alonzo Mourning of 2004. The team that gets him will hope that he'll be healthy for the next two years--which should be enough to be worth signing him to a four-year deal.

I've always liked Camby and I still like him, but the Suns don't need a center who's going to be 220 pounds and 34 years old in 2007...

 

[slinslin]

He is by far the best center available in free agency.

And he is definately not 220lbs anymore. In fact he got injured right after he bulked up a lot but now looks like he is perfectly healthy and carries his weight very well.

I think you are wrong when you say that the Suns won't make a run at Camby if they have the money.

The injury risk won't make them shy away, it is not like he gets a 7yr/max deal that would put the Suns in luxury tax territory.

And Alonzo Mourning was not only older than Camby, he was also seriously ill.
And still doesn't the insurance pay all his salary anyway and not the Nets?

 

[devilalum]

I think the Suns would be crazy to sign Camby but the last Denver game makes me wonder.

JJ and Marion were both talking to Camby the whole game about coming to Phoenix. Do they know something we don't know? In the past Suns players have usually had knowledge of free agents the Suns intended to pursue.

 

[George O'Brien]

It seems doubtful, but not impossible that the Suns could do a deal with Camby. The real key will be if the Nuggets sign another big man, which would mean they would not try hard to keep Camby. If they don't, he is not going anywhere.

I don't know how to evaluate player health. Googs was generally heathy before coming to Phoenix and played about one year before starting his regular trips to the IR. Penny had a history of injuries, but his injury could have happened to anybody.

The only "safe" solution is to never sign anybody to a long term contract, but that creates the risk of losing guys or constantly fighting free agency.

 

[Joe Mama]

Originally posted by devilalum
I think the Suns would be crazy to sign Camby but the last Denver game makes me wonder.

JJ and Marion were both talking to Camby the whole game about coming to Phoenix. Do they know something we don't know? In the past Suns players have usually had knowledge of free agents the Suns intended to pursue.

Yeah, that is what Camby said. Of course I could have been that they were just joking around with him about coming to Phoenix. I highly doubt Bryan Colangelo went to them and ask them to proposition him. Hell, he could have been making it up. It's quite obvious that he's trying to pump up his value.

Joe Mama

 

[elindholm]

And still doesn't the insurance pay all his salary anyway and not the Nets?

I read that no one would insure Mourning's contract because of his condition, so the Nets are on the hook for all of it themselves. I don't know whether that's true, but the source seemed reliable at the time (i.e. not someone like Vecsey).

 

[elindholm]

I don't know how to evaluate player health. Googs was generally heathy before coming to Phoenix and played about one year before starting his regular trips to the IR. Penny had a history of injuries, but his injury could have happened to anybody.

That's like saying you might as well build your home on a geologic fault line, because even though there have been lots of earthquakes there before, they really can happen anywhere.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm
I don't know how to evaluate player health. Googs was generally heathy before coming to Phoenix and played about one year before starting his regular trips to the IR. Penny had a history of injuries, but his injury could have happened to anybody.

That's like saying you might as well build your home on a geologic fault line, because even though there have been lots of earthquakes there before, they really can happen anywhere.

Great analogy, except you are reading more into it than said. My main point is that long term contracts are always a risk and it doesn't matter if the guy is healthy. Giving a long term contract to a guy with a history of injuries is a huge risk, but giving ones to guys who are healthy are an even bigger risk. The greater the health risk, the shorter the contract should be or else walk away.

I suspect Camby will end up with a four year from a mid cap team if he does not stay with Denver. The Suns cannot afford the risk of more than two years, maybe not more than one.

 

[devilalum]

Originally posted by Joe Mama
Yeah, that is what Camby said. Of course I could have been that they were just joking around with him about coming to Phoenix. I highly doubt Bryan Colangelo went to them and ask them to proposition him. Hell, he could have been making it up. It's quite obvious that he's trying to pump up his value.

Joe Mama

As I recall many of the free agents the Suns have signed over the years have been recruited by players. They can usually get away with a little tampering.

I don't think BC told them to do anything my guess would be that if the Suns are interested in Camby it's something they talk about among themselves.

You know every player, coach, front office guy for the Suns has gotta be throwing around the same ideas we do.

 

[elindholm]

Giving a long term contract to a guy with a history of injuries is a huge risk, but giving ones to guys who are healthy are an even bigger risk.

I assume you mean, "but giving longer contracts to guys who are healthy..." I'd sure rather give a four-year deal to a historically healthy player than to a historically unhealthy one. But a six-year deal to a healthy player versus a three-year deal to a chronically injured one, that's a tough call.

I do believe that some people are injury prone and that others will tend to be healthy. Even among the normal, non-athletic population, it's perfectly normal for one person to have bad knees, another one chronic back pain, and a third recurring bouts with migraines. In Hardaway's case, the Suns were reckless to give him such a long deal, because his injuries had been serious and recurring, and there was no real evidence that he had gotten over them. (In fact, the evidence was that he had not gotten over them, since his post-injury statistics weren't nearly as good.)

You're right that, with Gugliotta, the Suns just got unlucky. However, that won't happen very often. Players who start off healthy in their first several years will usually remain healthy, barring a freak accident. If the Suns were to make a long-term commitment to a good player with a clean bill of health, and then something were to go wrong, I don't think they could be "faulted" (heh, get it?) for that.

I also agree with you that the Suns should not afford the risk of signing Camby to anything more than a two-year deal. However, as Joe Mama (I think) said, Camby will almost certainly get more than that from someone. In a case like that, the best strategy is to let someone else take on the risk. If a competitor sinks their future into Camby and he falls apart again, the Suns come out on top, by virtue of their superior strategic thinking.

Under no circumstances should the Suns use vague arguments about "unknown risks" to invest their future in a player with a terrible injury history.

 

[SirStefan32]

Signing Camby would be a mistake. They can sign somebody to sit on the IL and/ or bench for a vet. minimum.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Originally posted by elindholm
And still doesn't the insurance pay all his salary anyway and not the Nets?

I read that no one would insure Mourning's contract because of his condition, so the Nets are on the hook for all of it themselves. I don't know whether that's true, but the source seemed reliable at the time (i.e. not someone like Vecsey).

That was the story reported by numerous outlets both during the signing, and during the retirement.

Also, Slin, I think you have a misunderstanding on how insurance policies on players and medical exceptions work....

You seem to think it is normal and easy to get one.

For insurance to pick up the salary, the player has to be out for at least 80% of the season in most cases. Also, a third party doctor has to claim he is not available for play, you cant just keep him on the IL because he is out of shape. For Hardaways insurance plan, I think he could play in no more than 4 games a year (one season that was brought up a lot, not 100% on the number of games though).

I would assume that Camby would have a tougher insurance policy, since his history isn't good at all.



Also, the medical exceptions are nearly impossible to get. Remember the magic have never gotton one for Grant Hill. I don't think a team has ever gotton one for Camby either. The league doesn't like to give them out, and it takes a lot of evidence that a player will not be available for the entire season.

 

[fordronken]

The major factor that makes it completely impossible for Mourning's contract to be covered by insurance is that it is not a new injury. It is the same injury that caused significant playing time problems in the past. The Nets signed him fully aware that this was the case, but apparently, it was as much a "Jason Kidd signing bonus" as it was a guy brought in to fill a team need.

 

[elindholm]

Also, a third party doctor has to claim he is not available for play, you cant just keep him on the IL because he is out of shape. For Hardaways insurance plan, I think he could play in no more than 4 games a year

It has been reported that Grant Hill's salary will be covered for this season if he plays ten or fewer games, and that that's part of the reason the Magic are holding him back in his comeback bid.

 

[Chaz]

Even if Camby's contract were picked up by insurance, in case of injury like Mourning, the contract would still count against the cap. This could prevent them from signing another player. That would be the real risk.

 

[hcsilla]

Originally posted by elindholm
And still doesn't the insurance pay all his salary anyway and not the Nets?

I read that no one would insure Mourning's contract because of his condition, so the Nets are on the hook for all of it themselves.

That's correct.

 

[hcsilla]

Originally posted by SirChaz
Even if Camby's contract were picked up by insurance, in case of injury like Mourning, the contract would still count against the cap. This could prevent them from signing another player. That would be the real risk.

I agree.

I really like Camby but I would not sign him.Someone other should take that big risk not the Suns.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by hcsilla
I agree.

I really like Camby but I would not sign him.Someone other should take that big risk not the Suns.

On another thread I pointed out that Camby has not played in more than 63 games in ANY season in his career. His last two seasons he played in only 29 games each. He's a very good player, but too risky.

 

[Errntknght]

Why would we pick up anyone like Camby or McDyess... it's not like they'll make us a contender next year. Two years from now, if we're near that status then taking on someone like that has enough upside to risk it. Vlade would make some sense because of his assistance with our European players and bigs, Lampe in particular. His wilyness might rub off on our guys, too...

 

[slinslin]

And in 2 years we won't have the money to sign a player like Camby.

While we would still have Camby in 2 years when we sign him now and it is not like he is so old you would expect him to do nothing in 2 years.

Camby is averaging 10/2.5 and is more effective than Ben Wallace despite playing in the West.

Don't underestimate what Camby would add to this team.

 

[Joe Mama]

Originally posted by slinslin
And in 2 years we won't have the money to sign a player like Camby.

While we would still have Camby in 2 years when we sign him now and it is not like he is so old you would expect him to do nothing in 2 years.

Camby is averaging 10/2.5 and is more effective than Ben Wallace despite playing in the West.

Don't underestimate what Camby would add to this team.

... assuming he is healthy enough to do anything. I honestly agree with you that of all the free agents this upcoming summer a healthy Marcus Camby might help the Phoenix Suns the most. However you seem to be losing sight of the fact that he has been one of the most consistently injured players in the NBA year after year. We're not even past the All-Star break yet. How many times did he let down the New York Knicks in the last third of the season?

Slin, we cannot keep dreaming about Marcus Camby, but I know I'm convinced there's no way the Phoenix Suns are going to outbid anyone for his services.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Joe Mama
... assuming he is healthy enough to do anything. I honestly agree with you that of all the free agents this upcoming summer a healthy Marcus Camby might help the Phoenix Suns the most. However you seem to be losing sight of the fact that he has been one of the most consistently injured players in the NBA year after year. We're not even past the All-Star break yet. How many times did he let down the New York Knicks in the last third of the season?

Slin, we cannot keep dreaming about Marcus Camby, but I know I'm convinced there's no way the Phoenix Suns are going to outbid anyone for his services.

Joe Mama

Camby will cost too much.

He has played in only 29 games in each of the last two seasons. He is 100 pounds lighter than Shaq and at least 50 pounds lighter than the average NBA center. Plus he currently averages 3.5 fouls per game while playing only 28 minutes. Also, he offense is way down - he averages only 8 ppg.

Would I like to have him on the Suns? Sure. Is he worth a four year $30 million contract? Even if healthy, it would be a push and the chances of his staying healthy for four years are negligible.