The Trading Down Strategy

[Harry]

I asked 5 gurus/scouts their opinion of whether the Cards should trade down. Four felt they should move down if one of the 3 top CBs is not available. One said if they had Newsome rated in the top 20 they wouldn’t risk it. That said 4 of the 5 also said there was a potential problem. Unless some team felt unusually strong about an O-lineman or an Edge Rusher, they felt it would be hard to find a trading partner willing to pay anything above a fourth round pick. They said after the 16th pick, you could just pull the next player out of a hat. From that point on they felt there was little clarity about the worth of players. This was a 20 minute zoom call and was really fun. I’ll pass some of the other insights along as I get the chance to put it together. I took notes. I’ve noted before I have to give credit to these guys for some of my evaluations. I didn’t see any games in person last year. I can work from film but seeing the whole field is critical to evaluating most positions. These were the guys who felt this was the hardest set of players to evaluate in recent memory. Practices were erratic and limited. COVID disrupted schedules. Conditioning broke down. Players opted out. Games were fewer. It was just a bad environment in which to evaluate players.

 

[az jam]

Good stuff, looking forward to the evaluations. Looks like trading down may not be a real option.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

This was my biggest concern. A big drop off in talent leaves us just clutching an okay player. I don’t think a 4th is enough to compensate for losing flexibility of choice moving down.

 

[Waysouth]

The key is one of the five top QB's being on the board. Both WFT and Chicago, need one. Not to mention, maybe NO.

 

[MA Display]

Oh there will be someone special at 16 (due to a bottleneck at the following spots):

QBs: Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Mac Jones
WRs: D. Smith, Chase, Waddle, Pitts (TE)
OL: Penei, Slater, Darrisaw
CB: Farley, Surtain II
LB: Parsons
DL: Phillips, Rousseau

Bam! That's 17 players I would be dang satisfied to scoop up. With that said, I think we're almost certain to have trade partners calling us come draft day.

If I were Mr. Keim, I'd be looking to trade back into the late 1st, and scoop up Travis Etienne or N. Harris : ))

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Oh there will be someone special at 16 (due to a bottleneck at the following spots):

QBs: Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, Mac Jones
WRs: D. Smith, Chase, Waddle, Pitts (TE)
OL: Penei, Slater, Darrisaw
CB: Farley, Surtain II
LB: Parsons
DL: Phillips, Rousseau

Bam! That's 17 players I would be dang satisfied to scoop up. With that said, I think we're almost certain to have trade partners calling us come draft day.

If I were Mr. Keim, I'd be looking to trade back into the late 1st, and scoop up Travis Etienne or N. Harris : ))

Form what I’ve seen, the edge players you list aren’t quite coveted or classified with the rest of that grouping. Darrisaw is most frequently outside of that group as well. And I think Mac jones ends up falling. I hope I’m wrong about all of them. But from what I’ve read this is supposed to be a 13 player top heavy draft. Just going off everything I’ve read.

 

[football karma]

the edge players you list aren’t quite coveted or classified with the rest of that grouping. Darrisaw is most frequently outside of that group as well.

that feels most likely --

if its the case, Darrisaw is really the last of the top 50 pure left tackles -- the guys after him: AVT, Tevin Jenkins, Cosmi, Leatherwood are RTs, or, Guards.

so the hope is one of Bears, Steelers, Packers or Chiefs want to make a move to grab him

 

[Chopper0080]

This was my biggest concern. A big drop off in talent leaves us just clutching an okay player. I don’t think a 4th is enough to compensate for losing flexibility of choice moving down.

I don't know if it is a drop off in talent as much as it is a lack of separation. When you lack film, exposure, and data it can be tough to find the gaps between players. A good example is trying to find the gap between Christian Darrisaw, Tevin Jenkins, Sam Cosmi and Alex Leatherwood. They are all talented players but is Darrisaw a 3rd round pick more than Leatherwood? That is what makes this draft tricky IMO.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I don't know if it is a drop off in talent as much as it is a lack of separation. When you lack film, exposure, and data it can be tough to find the gaps between players. A good example is trying to find the gap between Christian Darrisaw, Tevin Jenkins, Sam Cosmi and Alex Leatherwood. They are all talented players but is Darrisaw a 3rd round pick more than Leatherwood? That is what makes this draft tricky IMO.

See that’s what I mean, I lump all those guys kinda close together. But they are all way behind penei and slater imo. It may just come down to the fact that at 16 we are outside the top 13 players so it doesn’t make that much of difference unless one of them (not a QB) drops to us.

 

[Chopper0080]

What I know is that the draft will offer opportunities to get some players at need positions.

I think we should expect focus on RB, WR, TE, EDGE and CB.

 

[Chopper0080]

Caleb Farley or Jaycee Horn? My guess is that this is going to be the debate on draft day for Cardinals fans.

 

[DVontel]

Caleb Farley or Jaycee Horn? My guess is that this is going to be the debate on draft day for Cardinals fans.

It’ll be Greg Newsome.

 

[Goldfield]

It has to be CB at 16 maybe trade down in the second

 

[Goldfield]

I asked 5 gurus/scouts their opinion of whether the Cards should trade down. Four felt they should move down if one of the 3 top CBs is not available. One said if they had Newsome rated in the top 20 they wouldn’t risk it. That said 4 of the 5 also said there was a potential problem. Unless some team felt unusually strong about an O-lineman or an Edge Rusher, they felt it would be hard to find a trading partner willing to pay anything above a fourth round pick. They said after the 16th pick, you could just pull the next player out of a hat. From that point on they felt there was little clarity about the worth of players. This was a 20 minute zoom call and was really fun. I’ll pass some of the other insights along as I get the chance to put it together. I took notes. I’ve noted before I have to give credit to these guys for some of my evaluations. I didn’t see any games in person last year. I can work from film but seeing the whole field is critical to evaluating most positions. These were the guys who felt this was the hardest set of players to evaluate in recent memory. Practices were erratic and limited. COVID disrupted schedules. Conditioning broke down. Players opted out. Games were fewer. It was just a bad environment in which to evaluate players.

This actually make a ton of sense

 

[football karma]

on trading down:

you never know what team will fall in LOVE with a given player and just have to have him

remember the Saints trading wayyy up to get..........Marcus Davenport -- a player most pre draft rankings had him available at the Saints original spot

even last year -- the Chargers traded up to get Kenneth Murray and the 49ers traded up to get Brandon Aiyuk

 

[Chopper0080]

It’ll be Greg Newsome.

I think Vance will like Horn's aggressiveness and versatility. I also think Farley the most recent back surgery for Farley will potentially land him still on the board. Even so, we may have all 3 staring us in the face when picking.

 

[DVontel]

I think Vance will like Horn's aggressiveness and versatility. I also think Farley the most recent back surgery for Farley will potentially land him still on the board. Even so, we may have all 3 staring us in the face when picking.

How versatile is Horn really though? He’s a stud in press-man, but his game is just begging for flags thrown early in his career. He’s also awkward in off-man & zone. I think he’s suited to guard the bigger, but slower WRs as opposed to the shifty & quick WRs. Greg can play all 3 at a high level, but durability is a concern.

 

[Solar7]

I don't see a situation where we can move back and get another 2nd, but I'd be open to the discussion in terms of getting a 3rd. That opens up all three rounds to try to fill a CB and RB, plus a wild card of BPA.

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

I don't understand how you could take anyone in R1 that you have questions about, whether it is durability, character, or weaknesses in some aspects of his game. Forget the dang boards, and take the best sure bet at a position of great need.

For instance, if you question if the only CB who might be worthy of that high of a pick can do a complete job to the degree you need them to, why take him if/when there is a sure fire great RB, WR, or even OG, a definite plug and play, to fill a hole you have in your lineup for you to take. To heck if many don't have him rated as one of the top 16-20 players or not. If he immediately fills a big hole and is a sure starter that makes your team better, then take him over the guy you have questions about. You can find questionable players in every other round, many of which will turn out better than everyone imagines.

It seems to me that the Cards have, way too many times, taken players who have great tape in some aspects of their game, yet obvious questions in others, who fall to us. We take them based on their positive qualities, thinking we can either coach them up to overcome their weaknesses, or they will learn in time, and guess what? In a couple years we all are wondering why we took that bust while overlooking some other players who become stars in the league. To me that is simply drafting for blue sky, wishful thinking, and not giving enough weight to the obvious holes in their game. Just like a woman who marries the good looking jerk who is a good lay, rather than the nice conscientious nerd, thinking she can and will change the jerk, or that he will grow out of his stupid, negative, or even violent traits.

 

[DVontel]

I don't see a situation where we can move back and get another 2nd, but I'd be open to the discussion in terms of getting a 3rd. That opens up all three rounds to try to fill a CB and RB, plus a wild card of BPA.

I’ll say this.

I’ll be okay with JaVonte Williams in the 2nd if we get Greg Newsome in the 1st.

 

[BigDavis75]

How versatile is Horn really though? He’s a stud in press-man, but his game is just begging for flags thrown early in his career. He’s also awkward in off-man & zone. I think he’s suited to guard the bigger, but slower WRs as opposed to the shifty & quick WRs. Greg can play all 3 at a high level, but durability is a concern.

who do horn and newsome remind you of at the pro level?

 

[DVontel]

who do horn and newsome remind you of at the pro level?

Newsome = Darius Slay
Horn = Carlton Davis

 

[AZman5103]

I think Horn is going to be a really good player. I would not be opposed to just taking him at 16 and saying you are our #2 CB....hopefully after signing or trading for a proven guy.

You don't trade #16 until youre on the board.....everything else is up for grabs. If Keim was able to trade way our remaining draft picks to fill more holes, Im fine with that...just keep the 1st rounder in case the "impossible" happens.

If I was Keim..I would go hard to sign Nelson, and I would make an offer to JC Jackson, or just work out a trade for our 2nd.

Yep, you have 2, big CB contracts to work out...but this is the first time in forever that the Card have players taking paycuts to stay here, and its clear we are in "Win Now" mode. Restructure our other deals and go get the last 2 vets that could legit make us contenders.

With those two moves, on deals that allow us to start tearing this things down in a couple of years if its not working....and its the best scenario I could hope for.

It lets you take the absolute BPA at #16, and then call it a weekend.

 

[Harry]

I’ll say this.

I’ll be okay with JaVonte Williams in the 2nd if we get Greg Newsome in the 1st.

IMO you are correct he will encounter some officials who will aggressively flag his style of play.

 

[Ohcrap75]

This year is even harder than most to find clean prospects. Whether it’s lack of tape, production, injury, position, etc... Makes sense that there’s going to be varying opinions starting in the early teens. I wish Mac Jones would make it to 16, but someone will trade up ahead of NE if they like him. Really going to suck if we have to take a CB because we pigeon holed ourselves and someone like AVT or D Smith happens to slide. Great post Harry!