The War Room - Draft dish: 49ers mining for answers at No. 1

[BACH]

April 13, 2005 Print it

By War Room scouts
Sporting News

"With the first pick of the 2005 draft, the 49ers select. . . ."

The debate is raging in the team's draft meetings in Santa Clara over who the first pick will be. Coach Mike Nolan has all but made up his mind that Utah's Alex Smith is the man based on his belief that Smith has the bigger upside, despite Nolan's awkward public comments a few weeks ago that made it appear he was leaning toward California's Aaron Rodgers.

Offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy prefers the team selects Rodgers. McCarthy believes Rodgers is better suited to play in his version of the West Coast offense. He doesn't disagree that Smith might have bigger upside, but he also believes he has a bigger downside if he doesn't develop to his full potential. Rodgers, according to McCarthy, is a "what you see is what you get" type guy, and McCarthy likes what he sees.

Hold the clock, however -- there still is hope that a trade down might yet happen.

While it doesn't appear remotely possible, there are two big reasons why the Niners would love to trade down. There are plenty of good prospects they could select in the top 12, and the draft pick compensation to move down will help them get more talented young players on their roster. But the history of the No. 1 overall pick is the most troubling aspect to the Niners, especially the "Moneyball" faction who have been relegated to near non-factor status by the new regime.

More often than not, the first pick turns out to be a bust, or at best a serviceable player. Consider the following chart of the 14 number one overall picks from 1988-01 (it's too soon to judge Eli Manning ('04), Carson Palmer ('03), David Carr ('02)): Year Player Bottom line
2001 QB Michael Vick, Falcons Franchise player
2000 DE Courtney Brown, Browns Bust
1999 QB Tim Couch, Browns Bust
1998 QB Peyton Manning, Colts Franchise player
1997 OT Orlando Pace, Rams Franchise player
1996 WR Keyshawn Johnson, Jets Pro Bowler, but not No. 1-worthy
1995 RB Ki-Jana Carter, Bengals Bust
1994 DT Dan Wilkinson, Bengals Bust
1993 QB Drew Bledsoe, Patriots Pro Bowler, No. 1-worthy
1992 DT Steve Emtman, Colts Bust
1991 DT Russell Maryland, Cowboys Solid player, but not No. 1-worthy
1990 QB Jeff George, Colts Bust
1989 QB Troy Aikman, Cowboys Franchise player
1988 LB Aundray Bruce, Falcons Bust


The chart supports the thinking in the 49ers' current meetings. The value of the number one pick is overrated, and financially painful for a pick they would rather not have -- especially this year.

The reasons for the lack of prevailing success varies from injury, a team's weak evaluation process or the player's inability to adapt mentally and emotionally to being the most scrutinized player on his team and maybe even the entire league. The Niners have studied the above list and will look to land the player with the characteristics to follow in the footsteps of the five selections out of those 14 who were worthy of the first overall pick.

"After you. . . . 'No, after you.'"

While there is no talk of the Niners attempting to get out of the first overall spot by merely passing -- like the Vikings did "accidentally on purpose" in '02, allowing the Cowboys to jump ahead of them to select safety Roy Williams while they were still able to get their pick, offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie, one slot lower, don't be surprised to see history repeat itself this year.

Teams will push their picks to the time limit, and possibly beyond, if they have any hope of consummating a trade. While it was a trade of draft positions for no compensation to the Vikings, they got the player they coveted and no harm was done while they tried to squeeze a trade out of the Chiefs. They did end up paying McKinnie the original slotted rookie pool amount after a protracted holdout.

While moving down one or more draft slots for no compensation appears to make no sense, the resulting decrease in the rookie pool salary cap slot will be enticing to a team that doesn't care about the potential acrimonious negotiations.

QUICK HITS

The Combine drug test results are in, and while the numbers are down, it is still surprising that any player, as informed as they are, would take the risk of getting caught. The most notable positive test involves Wisconsin's Antajj Hawthorne, who now may see his hopes of being drafted on Day 1 go away. Hawthorne, with all of the teams who are going to the 3-4, was pushing his way up in Round 2 as a two-gap lineman who could potentially play the demanding position of nose tackle. . . .

Another such player, the Jets' Jason Ferguson, fell to the seventh round in 1997 after a positive test at the Combine, when all indications were he would be a high Day 1 pick. . . .

The Eagles are exploring a trade of franchise-tagged players involving defensive tackle Corey Simon plus a draft pick for Colts running back Edgerrin James. The Eagles have more action and may gain leverage on the Colts as the Ravens still are very interested in Simon.

The Colts had given James permission to seek a trade for a month and no offers were made. . . .

The Rams would like to take an offensive tackle early and Florida State's Alex Barron is on their pre-draft visit schedule. He appears to be a favorite because they never expected they would have a chance at him at No. 19. The Rams are rooting for his stock to continue to fall. . . .

The Rams also must find a solid safety. They have signed only journeymen free agents and now have given up on trying to convert outside linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa. . . .

The Chiefs need multiple linebackers on draft day -- they signed former Steeler Kendrell Bell, but lost Monty Beisel to the Patriots. Beisel's best asset is that he can play all the linebacker spots. Scott Fujita needs more ankle surgery and Shawn Barber is physically unable to perform and won't be ready until the season. . . .

Former Nebraska center Richie Incognito has continued to face adversity, as he suffered another injury at his Pro Day workout held at Arizona State last week. The knee injury is not considered too serious, however, and he should be ready by training camp. He will still get drafted late as a value pick with upside. . . .

The Broncos are looking to draft a cornerback early. Besides Champ Bailey, only Lenny Walls has been a starter for them and he has an injury history and will be a free agent after the season. . . .

The Lions were set to take an offensive tackle with their first-round pick at No. 10, but they may have a deal in place with, Scott Gragg. The current 49ers reserve tackle has been told he will be cut after June 1 for salary cap purposes. Instead look for the Lions to select a pass-rushing end -- possibly Wisconsin's Erasmus James -- to line up opposite James Hall.

War Room scouts analyze NFL and college players, coaches and teams for the Sporting News.
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The Eagles are exploring a trade of franchise-tagged players involving defensive tackle Corey Simon plus a draft pick for Colts running back Edgerrin James. The Eagles have more action and may gain leverage on the Colts as the Ravens still are very interested in Simon.

Interesting..... That would make great sense both teams.

The Combine drug test results are in, and while the numbers are down, it is still surprising that any player, as informed as they are, would take the risk of getting caught. The most notable positive test involves Wisconsin's Antajj Hawthorne, who now may see his hopes of being drafted on Day 1 go away. Hawthorne, with all of the teams who are going to the 3-4, was pushing his way up in Round 2 as a two-gap lineman who could potentially play the demanding position of nose tackle. . . .

Hawthorne would be great pick-up in the 5th or 6th round if he falls. I'm sure Green would take a chance on him, BUT I doubt RG or MB would want him

 

[Russ Smith]

And the guessing labelled as inside information continues. Today Tim Kawakami said Rodgers was with teh 49ers for 8 hours yesterday. New "personnel guru" Scot McCloughan prefers Smith, thinks he has the higher ceiling, McCarthy prefers Rodgers. Kawakami says it's not clear who Nolan prefers because he won't say but he thinks Nolan would admit he has Edwards and Rolle rated as better players but realizes the need at QB is so great they have to take one. He thinks Rodgers is the guy Nolan prefers because Nolan wants to run a WCO and McCarthy feels Rodgers can step in and do it right away, while Smith will take some time to get acclimated.

The 49ers under Walsh traditionally did NOT use the shotgun so they're concerned that Smith's lack of experience behind C will hurt him. They also think Rodger's college offense required a lot more reading of defenses than Smith did and they felt in talking with the 2 it was apparent that Rodgers had a better grasp of reading defenses(this from a local radio sports guy who claims to have gotten that from a 49er insider so take with a grain of salt).

Rodgers also impressed them with his demeanor, he's extremely confident, borderline cocky, a real leader, said he was a big Brett Favre fan and that mental and physical toughness are his strengths. The 49ers are very concerned about how sleight Smith is because they have injury prone Rattay and skinny weak armed Dorsey and they want a more durable starter.

I still think it's going to be Rodgers but if they don't pick him I get the feeling Edwards is the 2nd choice. I don't think they're deciding between QBs I think they're deciding between a QB and Edwards, I just don't know which QB, I'm guessing Rodgers.

 

[vinnymac]

i say forget the qb's. go for edwards. surprise everybody.

 

[Russ Smith]

i say forget the qb's. go for edwards. surprise everybody.

Rodgers made a good point when asked that, he said Braylon is a great player but he only touches the ball a few times a game, a QB is much more involved in the offense. In other words a great receiver can only do so much with crappy QB's, as we saw last year in Arizona.

 

[vinnymac]

good point russ. then again what makes you think that rodgers and smith are going to be good qb. they are not getting great reviews like rivers, big ben, and manning got last season. compared to last year, this year draft is a joke. so here spending a lot of money on less talent.

 

[imaCafan]

Rodgers made a good point when asked that, he said Braylon is a great player but he only touches the ball a few times a game, a QB is much more involved in the offense. In other words a great receiver can only do so much with crappy QB's, as we saw last year in Arizona.

But the one thing about a great WR is that the whole defense, so to speak, will be somewhat geared to stopping that one particular receiver, even if the ball doesn't always go in his direction........right?????

 

[Russ Smith]

good point russ. then again what makes you think that rodgers and smith are going to be good qb. they are not getting great reviews like rivers, big ben, and manning got last season. compared to last year, this year draft is a joke. so here spending a lot of money on less talent.

Depends, the Blesto rating on Rodgers is MUCH higher than it was on Rivers, last year they had Ben rated #1, Manning #2 and I think Rivers was 4th or 5th behind Losman for sure.

Rodgers made the comment about Edwards not me. I think it's unlikely the 49ers have a QB rated #1 as a player, but that's quite common, QB's are so valuable they often are drafted higher than they're rated relative to other players. If they take Smith or Rodgers it's because they want a qb not they had them rated as the BPA.

There's just too many conflicting reports, yesterday you were reading that the 49ers had basically dropped Smith from consideration, then you read they prefer him. Today Rodgers wowed them, then you read they prefer Smith. I think we're all guessing including me and we'll find out next Saturday or earlier if they sign someone. My guess is it's a QB or Edwards, I think Rolle is in there because they want to sucker someone into trading up for him so they still get their QB but cheaper.

 

[Russ Smith]

But the one thing about a great WR is that the whole defense, so to speak, will be somewhat geared to stopping that one particular receiver, even if the ball doesn't always go in his direction........right?????

Didn't work that way last year when Quan was out and we had Fitz. ANd remember Fitz was better than Edwards in college. The main problem is they decided last year that Rattay can't stay healthy, chokes under pressure, and dorsey's arm is just too weak. Ultimately I think they take a QB because of that, unless say Detroit works some deal where they draft Smith and then trade Harrington to SF and that would allow them to take Edwards but that's not a rumor that's just me imagining another way for them to get a QB and still pick Edwards. I really get the impression they think Edwards is the best player.

 

[vinnymac]

in other words, their are a lot of smoke screens out there. it really doesn't matter this draft class. i don't think coaches or gm are set on any one player. i know i'm not.

 

[CardShark]

Former Nebraska center Richie Incognito has continued to face adversity, as he suffered another injury at his Pro Day workout held at Arizona State last week. The knee injury is not considered too serious, however, and he should be ready by training camp. He will still get drafted late as a value pick with upside. . . .


Could become a Cardinal late in the draft!