Three Year Solution

[George O'Brien]

If reports out of Seattle and Cleveland are correct, then Wilcox and Gooden are going to accept three year deals. If my memory serves me, Lebron, Wade, and Bosh have signed three year extensions. If Wilcox and Gooden follow, this might suggest a trend.

Until recently, three year deals were pretty unusual. Generally deals are for four, five, or size years (four for older vets with five and six for guys in their twenties). On the other end, one and two year deals are very common. But three years for young guys is not common. However, there is reason to believe this trend may continue.

First, follow the leader. When Larry Huges signed a three year with the Wizzards, no one expected he would get a near max contract. It wasn't quite JJ money the Cavs offered, but it was a lot more than anyone expected.

Second, players are becoming reluctant to lock in at what may be a low ball contract a few years down the road.

Third, teams are reluctant to sign young guys to enormous, long term contracts that can't be moved if the guy gets injured or just doesn't progress as well as expected.

Fourth, very few teams lose players to free agency and usually can cover themselves through sign and trade if the player's price gets completely out of hand.

It will take several years to find out if this works out better for the players or management. For the teams, their is the extra factor that the player is likely to be at least at bit more motivated than if free agency is six years away.

 

[boisesuns]

I don't know what solution you are talking about, but it all comes down to money. In three years Lebron and Wade can get contracts with huge yearly pay nearly double what they will get with these contracts.

Their agents know it, and anyone smart enough would take the same deal. It only makes the year they are up for new contracts interesting to see who wants to give them nearly half their salary cap.

 

[Folster]

I don't know what solution you are talking about, but it all comes down to money. In three years Lebron and Wade can get contracts with huge yearly pay nearly double what they will get with these contracts.

Their agents know it, and anyone smart enough would take the same deal. It only makes the year they are up for new contracts interesting to see who wants to give them nearly half their salary cap.

It could also backfire if they happen to suffer unfortunate injuries like Grant Hill and Penny Hardaway. They are both rolling the dice, although both have huge endorsement deals anyway. If Lebron and Wade take gynormous contracts, I don't want to hear them bitch about not having talent around them.

 

[George O'Brien]

I still find it curious that players like LeBron are willing to give up security for the chance at even more than rookie max.

Change in subject, at one point Garnett was made $28 million a year. He took a pay cut to $16 million so they could get some players, but that only worked for a year.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Change in subject, at one point Garnett was made $28 million a year. He took a pay cut to $16 million so they could get some players, but that only worked for a year.

Shaq was making 30 million and took a cut down to 20 million so that the team could add all those players - and they won the finals

 

[Folster]

Shaq was making 30 million and took a cut down to 20 million so that the team could add all those players - and they won the finals

I wonder how Shaq managed to feed his family.

 

[arthurracoon]

players like LeBron are willing to give up security

doesnt he have a 100 mil shoe deal?

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

doesnt he have a 100 mil shoe deal?

Nah, its only 90


The point is, players are realizing how the CBA works in terms of veteran raises. The fact of the matter is that if you are a bonafide max contract guy for most of your career (like Bron and Wade), it is in your best interest to go this 3 year route. While you are losing on some guananteed money, very rarely does a star athlete suffer an injury that hurts his stock enought to threaten his next contract. In fact, I would like to know if anyone can think of a player other than Amare that has had their contract jeapordized before their 6th season. (Hill had his injury problems his 7th season, but let count him anyways)

The point is that superstar players very rarely get hurt bad enough to endanger their next contract. It just makes sense to roll the dice and look at the extra 30 million you can get this way.

M guess is that both players sign their next max deals with out clauses after their 10th season (IIRC that is the next set of max raises the CBA allows). In fact, I bet both players will be in position to get their salary guaranteed for 6 years, but get the outs at the right time. That way in case of injury they are covered, but they still have power to essentially renegotiate...

 

[nowagimp]

I wonder how Shaq managed to feed his family.

Actually, shaqs family does not eat as much as Latrells family.

 

[jlove]

If you all think back, rumor had it that Amare was trying to do the same with the Suns, but eventually ended up with his current contract that has a player termination clause afte 4 years. For him, with the injury surgery last year, the longer deal helped him out. Gooden is the only one that might suffer the most on his deal because of his age, and with both him and Wilcox, I feel that's the best they could get. With Lebron and Wade, they are going after the bigger money overall by taking fewer years now. It's pretty obvious that Carmelo feels he may get hurt to a point that his next contract wont be a max deal, so he took the max for 6 this contract.

 

[nowagimp]

If you all think back, rumor had it that Amare was trying to do the same with the Suns, but eventually ended up with his current contract that has a player termination clause afte 4 years. For him, with the injury surgery last year, the longer deal helped him out. Gooden is the only one that might suffer the most on his deal because of his age, and with both him and Wilcox, I feel that's the best they could get. With Lebron and Wade, they are going after the bigger money overall by taking fewer years now. It's pretty obvious that Carmelo feels he may get hurt to a point that his next contract wont be a max deal, so he took the max for 6 this contract.

I guessing that the shorter contracts are really to provide an out if the franchise becomes burdened with bad contracts and becomes a loser. Lebron and wade are probably making 10 mil a year -at least- on sneaker contracts, and that value could even be hurt if they were trapped on a loser. Yeah they could feed whole countries on that plus the 15 mil salary. I think that all these guys are worried about being trapped on a loser(except JJ), and being irrelevant when the big dance(playoffs) comes around.

 

[boisesuns]

Is it worth trying to get in position to sign one of them in a few years?

 

[Chaplin]

Is it worth trying to get in position to sign one of them in a few years?

That means not signing Diaw to an extension. Even with the possibility of Marion leaving.

 

[boisesuns]

That means not signing Diaw to an extension. Even with the possibility of Marion leaving.

Very true. I think having several "cheaper" guys might be better than one big one.

The again, Lebron will be 24-25 when he's up for another contract.....