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Updated: Mar. 18, 2005, 11:51 AM ET
Suddenly a position of great depth
By Chad Ford, ESPN Insider
Chad Ford Archive
The small forward position is the junk drawer of the NBA. If you're taller than 6-foot-6 and scouts don't have a clue where you'll play in the pros, they throw you into the small forward drawer, along with all of the other odds and ends, and call it good.
Swingman. Three. Point forward. Small forward. Does it matter? There is no one definition for the three spot these days.
Some guys can shoot the rock. Others run the offense from the point, because they've got a great handle. Some are rangy defenders called upon to stop an opponent's top offensive player. Others are power forwards masquerading as threes, because teams are too embarrassed to admit they have a 6-7 four. Others are two-guards in a three's clothing who have refused to leave the shooting to the two.
Nowadays, many of them speak with an accent. International players have made the biggest inroads at center and small forward. They have improved at center because NBA folks will take big guys wherever they can get them. They have impact at small forward because international big men have the ball-handling skills and shooting touch to play anywhere on the floor.
They are the Swiss Army knives of the NBA.
The presence of a number of strong, experienced college players in this year's draft makes the small forward position one of the strongest in recent memory.
Here's our first look at what appears to be a pretty solid small forward class.
Note: The list includes all players we believe might declare for the 2005 draft.
1. Marvin Williams, North Carolina
The line: 6-9, 230, Freshman
The skinny: Williams continues to claim he's returning for his sophomore season at UNC. We'll see. In a draft bereft of players with star potential, Williams is one of the few guys scouts are universally excited about. Williams is an unbelievable specimen. He has a great NBA body, top-notch athleticism and the ability to play just about anywhere on the court. He has one of the most developed inside-outside games of any prospect – something the Tar Heels rarely take advantage of. Given his skill, size, versatility and production, it's hard to believe Williams will slip out of the top three come draft time. If the New Orleans Hornets or Golden State Warriors get the first pick, he has a good chance of going No. 1. Then again, that might be just enough to scare him back to Chapel Hill.
2. Rudy Gay, Connecticut
The line: 6-9, 220, Freshman
The skinny: At the start of the season, scouts debated whether Williams or Gay was the better prospect. Williams has moved ahead of Gay, mostly because of his versatility. But Gay isn't far behind. In many ways he's having a better season than Williams and really has come alive of late. Gay has great size for a small forward. He is an above-average athlete with serious hops. He's also deceptively strong. He does just about everything well. He can slash to the basket, pull up for the mid-range jumper, beat up a defender in the post and make the perfect pass. If his ball handling was just a little bit better, there wouldn't be anything to question. Scouts also claim he's a great kid with a tireless work ethic. While the chances of his returning for a sophomore season are strong, he's a top-five pick if he comes out now.
A great tourney performance could lift Granger to draft lottery status.
3. Danny Granger, New Mexico
The line: 6-8, 235, senior
The skinny: Granger is the most underrated American player in the draft. He's a versatile wing man with long arms and a sweet shooting stroke. He's shooting 44 percent from 3-point range and grabbing nearly nine rebounds per game. That isn't easy to do. Granger also is known as a superb defender who can guard both forwards and guards. He has a real fiery streak that scouts love. Two months ago, he was thought of as a sleeper and possible steal late in the first round. That's changed. He's now in the middle of the first round with a great chance of working his way into the lottery by draft night.
4. Nemanja Aleksandrov, Serbia
The line: 6-10, 210, 17 years old
The skinny: Here's the quandary with Aleksandrov. Every scout who sees him practice is in love with his talent, to the point several will claim he's the most-skilled player in the draft. Every scout who sees him play, however, walks away disappointed. Aleksandrov has all the fundamentals you could ask for, but so far he doesn't show them in games. Two or three years ago, his talent alone would've guaranteed him a high lottery pick. Now? Given what has happened with guys like Nikoloz Tskitishvili, scouts are much more careful. Bottom line? Scouts still feel Aleksandrov is a lottery pick based on his talent, but he has moved down to the 10-15 range. In an ideal world, he'd stay in Europe a couple of years, prove his worth on the court and work his way to No. 1. In the real world, chances are he'll stay in the draft.
5. Joey Graham, Oklahoma State
The line: 6-7, 225, senior
The skinny: Graham is another player who has been underrated all year. Our spies at several of the summer camps came away raving, calling him the best senior in college basketball. He's done nothing to disprove that all season, especially in the past few weeks. While we think Granger has surpassed him as the top senior on the board, Graham is right there. Graham has the body of a power forward and the speed and dunking power of a two-guard like Corey Maggette. Graham's game starts with his back to the basket, but in the past year it slowly has moved all the way out to the 3-point line. He'll settle in the middle as a small forward in the pros. He'll fall anywhere from 12 to 20 in the draft.
6. Andrea Bargnani, Italy
The line: 6-11, 225, 19 years old
The skinny: The lithe 7-footer often gets compared to Dirk Nowitzki because of his versatility, ball-handling skills and his silky-smooth jumper. A breakout performance in the preseason versus the Toronto Raptors put him high on NBA radar screens, and scouts have been watching him closely ever since. He's averaged about 11 minutes per game this season for Benneton, one of the top clubs in Europe. He has played well, but he still has a ways to go. Bargnani needs to gain weight and strength. His low-post game is pretty underdeveloped, and he avoids contact. While Bargnani isn't a bad athlete, he's not in the same class with Nowitzki athletically. He doesn't have a lot of lift and tends to play below the rim. The talk around the league is that Bargnani will declare for the draft. While scouts are universally high on him, he's not ready. Right now he's a mid first-round pick, but with another year or two at Benneton, he easily could work his way into the lottery.
7. Ersan Ilyasova, Turkey
The line: 6-10, 220, 18 years old
The skinny: Insider first wrote about Ilyasova last spring after he wowed scouts at an international tournament. Scouts were claiming after the tournament that he was the best young prospect in Europe. However, he fractured his ankle shortly thereafter and only recently returned to the court. According to several reports from scouts who've made the trip to Turkey to see him play, he still has a ways to go before he's healthy. One leg is smaller than the other, and the explosiveness and athleticism he once showed are somewhat lacking. Still, the native of Uzbekistan has lottery-type talent, with athleticism, inside and outside skills offensively and fire that's lacking in Aleksandrov. Scouts claim Ilyasova wants to declare for the draft this year. If he can get totally healthy, his stock will be much higher. He had an impressive 16-point game for Ulker a few weeks ago. However, if things stay the way they are, he's a mid-to-late first-rounder.
8. Adam Morrison, Gonzaga
The line: 6-8, 215, junior
The skinny: Like every white player who can hit a jump shot, he typically gets the Larry Bird comparisons whenever you bring up his name. In some ways, it's more justified with this kid than most. He has a confidence about his game that is palpable. His ability to consistently make tough shots with a hand in his face might be his most appealing aspect. His knowledge of the game, his passing ability, his silky smooth jumper and his fierce competitiveness all are Bird-esque. So are his heavy legs and lack of athleticism. Foot speed and lateral quickness also hurt his stock somewhat, as well as problems with diabetes. If he has a big tournament, he could get some late-lottery, mid-first round buzz. Right now, however, his stock is somewhere in the 20s.
9. Kennedy Winston, Alabama
The line: 6-6, 230, senior
The skinny: Winston is such an efficient scorer that it often looks like he's not doing much out there. He's got a fantastic mid-range jumper, an explosive first step and has drastically improved his 3-point shooting. The knock on Winston is he doesn't play hungry, especially on the defensive end. He can be stiff and mechanical to the point he looks like he has a pole up his back. While he has the ability to rebound and distribute the ball, he's more interested in shooting. Some scouts believe Winston has the talent to be an early-to-mid first-round pick, but most think he'll end up somewhere in the 20s if he declares.
10. Rodney Carney, Memphis
The line: 6-7, 205, junior
The skinny: Carney is one of the top five athletes in college basketball and has great size for his position, but his stock has been slipping the last few months for a couple of reasons. One, with teammate Sean Banks off the team, Carney has struggled with the extra load. Two, he can't seem to shake the soft label. His unwillingness to mix things up in the paint will come back to haunt him. Right now he's a bubble first-rounder.
Best of the rest: Shawne Williams, HS Senior; Ryan Gomes, Providence; Eddie Basden, Charlotte; Dijon Thompson, UCLA; Sean Banks, Memphis; Jawad Williams, North Carolina; Quemont Greer, DePaul; Steven Smith, LaSalle; Omar Thomas, UTEP; Luka Bogdanovic, Serbia; Milan Majstorovic, Serbia; Stefano Mancinelli, Italy; Zhu Fangyu, China
Wait until next year: Jeff Green, Georgetown; Juan Diego Palacios, Louisville; Jared Dudley, Boston College; Corey Brewer, Florida; Keith Brumbaugh, HS Senior; Vilmantas Dilys, Lithuania; Damir Omerhodzic, Croatia; Regis Koundjia, LSU; Damjan Rudez, Croatia; Ricky Sanchez, Puerto Rico; Ivan Chiriaev, Russia; Dusan Sakota, Greece
AROUND THE LEAGUE
<LI>Now that we're in the postseason, underclassmen who have been eliminated from competition are starting to indicate whether they'll be in or out of the 2005 NBA draft. So far only a handful of college players have publicly said they're declaring. LaSalle's Steven Smith, San Diego's Marcus Slaughter and SMU's Bryan Hopkins are the only three to officially say they're declaring. All three are likely second-round picks. A number of other underclassmen, including Utah's Andrew Bogut, Pittsburgh's Chris Taft, Illinois' Deron Williams, Texas A&M's Antoine Wright, Louisville's Francisco Garcia, Washington's Nate Robinson, Alabama's Kennedy Winston, Memphis' Rodney Carney, UConn's Charlie Villanueva, Iowa State's Curtis Stinson and Pittsburgh's Carl Krauser are considered "very likely" to declare based on Insider conversations with NBA scouts and college personnel.
A few top prospects already have said they willreturn for another year of college. The two biggest names were North Carolina's Williams and Miami's Guillermo Diaz. However, sources claim both players are informally inquiring into their projected draft status and might change their minds depending on the feedback they get. Williams is a likely top-three pick in the draft. Diaz, according to scouts, could go anywhere from the mid to late first round.
Several high school players now appear "likely" to declare. They include Gerald Green, Louis Williams, Monta Ellis, Shawne Williams and Andray Blatche. Three other high school players – Martell Webster, Richard Hendrix and C.J. Miles – appear to be on the fence.
Internationally, look for a flood of under-22 players to declare. Martynas Andriuskevicius, Nemanja Aleksandrov, Tiago Splitter, Marko Tomas, Rudy Fernandez, Johan Petro, Roko Ukic and Luka Bogdanovic are definitely in, according to their agents. A couple of other young studs, including Andrea Bargnani and Ersan Ilyasova, are strongly considering entering the draft.
<LI>Nike will bring back the Hoop Summit again this year. The game will be played in Memphis on April 9, cutting into the last day of the Portsmouth Invitational. The American team looks solid, with NBA prospect Gerald Green, Martell Webster, Louis Williams and Monta Ellis all on Team USA.
The international team is tougher to get our hands around. The list is always tentative because many of the top international players are playing pro ball in Europe. It's playoff time over there and many teams are reluctant to part with their top players.
Insider talked to sources connected to the Hoop Summit and several international NBA scouts and agents and came up with the following list of players who have been invited and are considering and/or are likely to play.
Lithuanian do-it-all forward Vilmantas Dilys and Italian two-guard Marco Belinelli top the list of invited participants.
Other players who have been invited include Greece's sweet-shooting Dusan Sakota, Turkish point guard Semih Erden, England's big man (and Duke recruit) Eric Boateng, Lithuanian guard and sharp-shooter Martynas Pocius, Australian point guard Adam Gibson, and French big man Ian Mahini and quick point guard Michael Makongo.
Others top invitees include Turkish forward Ersan Ilyasova, Chinese big man Yi Jian Lin, Serbian forward Nemanja Aleksandrov and Georgian guard Manuchar Markoishivili. However Aleksandrov is currently injured and Ilyasova, Yi and Markoishivili have team commitments that may keep them from playing.
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Updated: Mar. 18, 2005, 11:51 AM ET
Suddenly a position of great depth
By Chad Ford, ESPN Insider
Chad Ford Archive
The small forward position is the junk drawer of the NBA. If you're taller than 6-foot-6 and scouts don't have a clue where you'll play in the pros, they throw you into the small forward drawer, along with all of the other odds and ends, and call it good.
Swingman. Three. Point forward. Small forward. Does it matter? There is no one definition for the three spot these days.
Some guys can shoot the rock. Others run the offense from the point, because they've got a great handle. Some are rangy defenders called upon to stop an opponent's top offensive player. Others are power forwards masquerading as threes, because teams are too embarrassed to admit they have a 6-7 four. Others are two-guards in a three's clothing who have refused to leave the shooting to the two.
Nowadays, many of them speak with an accent. International players have made the biggest inroads at center and small forward. They have improved at center because NBA folks will take big guys wherever they can get them. They have impact at small forward because international big men have the ball-handling skills and shooting touch to play anywhere on the floor.
They are the Swiss Army knives of the NBA.
The presence of a number of strong, experienced college players in this year's draft makes the small forward position one of the strongest in recent memory.
Here's our first look at what appears to be a pretty solid small forward class.
Note: The list includes all players we believe might declare for the 2005 draft.
1. Marvin Williams, North Carolina
The line: 6-9, 230, Freshman
The skinny: Williams continues to claim he's returning for his sophomore season at UNC. We'll see. In a draft bereft of players with star potential, Williams is one of the few guys scouts are universally excited about. Williams is an unbelievable specimen. He has a great NBA body, top-notch athleticism and the ability to play just about anywhere on the court. He has one of the most developed inside-outside games of any prospect – something the Tar Heels rarely take advantage of. Given his skill, size, versatility and production, it's hard to believe Williams will slip out of the top three come draft time. If the New Orleans Hornets or Golden State Warriors get the first pick, he has a good chance of going No. 1. Then again, that might be just enough to scare him back to Chapel Hill.
2. Rudy Gay, Connecticut
The line: 6-9, 220, Freshman
The skinny: At the start of the season, scouts debated whether Williams or Gay was the better prospect. Williams has moved ahead of Gay, mostly because of his versatility. But Gay isn't far behind. In many ways he's having a better season than Williams and really has come alive of late. Gay has great size for a small forward. He is an above-average athlete with serious hops. He's also deceptively strong. He does just about everything well. He can slash to the basket, pull up for the mid-range jumper, beat up a defender in the post and make the perfect pass. If his ball handling was just a little bit better, there wouldn't be anything to question. Scouts also claim he's a great kid with a tireless work ethic. While the chances of his returning for a sophomore season are strong, he's a top-five pick if he comes out now.
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A great tourney performance could lift Granger to draft lottery status.
3. Danny Granger, New Mexico
The line: 6-8, 235, senior
The skinny: Granger is the most underrated American player in the draft. He's a versatile wing man with long arms and a sweet shooting stroke. He's shooting 44 percent from 3-point range and grabbing nearly nine rebounds per game. That isn't easy to do. Granger also is known as a superb defender who can guard both forwards and guards. He has a real fiery streak that scouts love. Two months ago, he was thought of as a sleeper and possible steal late in the first round. That's changed. He's now in the middle of the first round with a great chance of working his way into the lottery by draft night.
4. Nemanja Aleksandrov, Serbia
The line: 6-10, 210, 17 years old
The skinny: Here's the quandary with Aleksandrov. Every scout who sees him practice is in love with his talent, to the point several will claim he's the most-skilled player in the draft. Every scout who sees him play, however, walks away disappointed. Aleksandrov has all the fundamentals you could ask for, but so far he doesn't show them in games. Two or three years ago, his talent alone would've guaranteed him a high lottery pick. Now? Given what has happened with guys like Nikoloz Tskitishvili, scouts are much more careful. Bottom line? Scouts still feel Aleksandrov is a lottery pick based on his talent, but he has moved down to the 10-15 range. In an ideal world, he'd stay in Europe a couple of years, prove his worth on the court and work his way to No. 1. In the real world, chances are he'll stay in the draft.
5. Joey Graham, Oklahoma State
The line: 6-7, 225, senior
The skinny: Graham is another player who has been underrated all year. Our spies at several of the summer camps came away raving, calling him the best senior in college basketball. He's done nothing to disprove that all season, especially in the past few weeks. While we think Granger has surpassed him as the top senior on the board, Graham is right there. Graham has the body of a power forward and the speed and dunking power of a two-guard like Corey Maggette. Graham's game starts with his back to the basket, but in the past year it slowly has moved all the way out to the 3-point line. He'll settle in the middle as a small forward in the pros. He'll fall anywhere from 12 to 20 in the draft.
6. Andrea Bargnani, Italy
The line: 6-11, 225, 19 years old
The skinny: The lithe 7-footer often gets compared to Dirk Nowitzki because of his versatility, ball-handling skills and his silky-smooth jumper. A breakout performance in the preseason versus the Toronto Raptors put him high on NBA radar screens, and scouts have been watching him closely ever since. He's averaged about 11 minutes per game this season for Benneton, one of the top clubs in Europe. He has played well, but he still has a ways to go. Bargnani needs to gain weight and strength. His low-post game is pretty underdeveloped, and he avoids contact. While Bargnani isn't a bad athlete, he's not in the same class with Nowitzki athletically. He doesn't have a lot of lift and tends to play below the rim. The talk around the league is that Bargnani will declare for the draft. While scouts are universally high on him, he's not ready. Right now he's a mid first-round pick, but with another year or two at Benneton, he easily could work his way into the lottery.
7. Ersan Ilyasova, Turkey
The line: 6-10, 220, 18 years old
The skinny: Insider first wrote about Ilyasova last spring after he wowed scouts at an international tournament. Scouts were claiming after the tournament that he was the best young prospect in Europe. However, he fractured his ankle shortly thereafter and only recently returned to the court. According to several reports from scouts who've made the trip to Turkey to see him play, he still has a ways to go before he's healthy. One leg is smaller than the other, and the explosiveness and athleticism he once showed are somewhat lacking. Still, the native of Uzbekistan has lottery-type talent, with athleticism, inside and outside skills offensively and fire that's lacking in Aleksandrov. Scouts claim Ilyasova wants to declare for the draft this year. If he can get totally healthy, his stock will be much higher. He had an impressive 16-point game for Ulker a few weeks ago. However, if things stay the way they are, he's a mid-to-late first-rounder.
8. Adam Morrison, Gonzaga
The line: 6-8, 215, junior
The skinny: Like every white player who can hit a jump shot, he typically gets the Larry Bird comparisons whenever you bring up his name. In some ways, it's more justified with this kid than most. He has a confidence about his game that is palpable. His ability to consistently make tough shots with a hand in his face might be his most appealing aspect. His knowledge of the game, his passing ability, his silky smooth jumper and his fierce competitiveness all are Bird-esque. So are his heavy legs and lack of athleticism. Foot speed and lateral quickness also hurt his stock somewhat, as well as problems with diabetes. If he has a big tournament, he could get some late-lottery, mid-first round buzz. Right now, however, his stock is somewhere in the 20s.
9. Kennedy Winston, Alabama
The line: 6-6, 230, senior
The skinny: Winston is such an efficient scorer that it often looks like he's not doing much out there. He's got a fantastic mid-range jumper, an explosive first step and has drastically improved his 3-point shooting. The knock on Winston is he doesn't play hungry, especially on the defensive end. He can be stiff and mechanical to the point he looks like he has a pole up his back. While he has the ability to rebound and distribute the ball, he's more interested in shooting. Some scouts believe Winston has the talent to be an early-to-mid first-round pick, but most think he'll end up somewhere in the 20s if he declares.
10. Rodney Carney, Memphis
The line: 6-7, 205, junior
The skinny: Carney is one of the top five athletes in college basketball and has great size for his position, but his stock has been slipping the last few months for a couple of reasons. One, with teammate Sean Banks off the team, Carney has struggled with the extra load. Two, he can't seem to shake the soft label. His unwillingness to mix things up in the paint will come back to haunt him. Right now he's a bubble first-rounder.
Best of the rest: Shawne Williams, HS Senior; Ryan Gomes, Providence; Eddie Basden, Charlotte; Dijon Thompson, UCLA; Sean Banks, Memphis; Jawad Williams, North Carolina; Quemont Greer, DePaul; Steven Smith, LaSalle; Omar Thomas, UTEP; Luka Bogdanovic, Serbia; Milan Majstorovic, Serbia; Stefano Mancinelli, Italy; Zhu Fangyu, China
Wait until next year: Jeff Green, Georgetown; Juan Diego Palacios, Louisville; Jared Dudley, Boston College; Corey Brewer, Florida; Keith Brumbaugh, HS Senior; Vilmantas Dilys, Lithuania; Damir Omerhodzic, Croatia; Regis Koundjia, LSU; Damjan Rudez, Croatia; Ricky Sanchez, Puerto Rico; Ivan Chiriaev, Russia; Dusan Sakota, Greece
AROUND THE LEAGUE
<LI>Now that we're in the postseason, underclassmen who have been eliminated from competition are starting to indicate whether they'll be in or out of the 2005 NBA draft. So far only a handful of college players have publicly said they're declaring. LaSalle's Steven Smith, San Diego's Marcus Slaughter and SMU's Bryan Hopkins are the only three to officially say they're declaring. All three are likely second-round picks. A number of other underclassmen, including Utah's Andrew Bogut, Pittsburgh's Chris Taft, Illinois' Deron Williams, Texas A&M's Antoine Wright, Louisville's Francisco Garcia, Washington's Nate Robinson, Alabama's Kennedy Winston, Memphis' Rodney Carney, UConn's Charlie Villanueva, Iowa State's Curtis Stinson and Pittsburgh's Carl Krauser are considered "very likely" to declare based on Insider conversations with NBA scouts and college personnel.
A few top prospects already have said they willreturn for another year of college. The two biggest names were North Carolina's Williams and Miami's Guillermo Diaz. However, sources claim both players are informally inquiring into their projected draft status and might change their minds depending on the feedback they get. Williams is a likely top-three pick in the draft. Diaz, according to scouts, could go anywhere from the mid to late first round.
Several high school players now appear "likely" to declare. They include Gerald Green, Louis Williams, Monta Ellis, Shawne Williams and Andray Blatche. Three other high school players – Martell Webster, Richard Hendrix and C.J. Miles – appear to be on the fence.
Internationally, look for a flood of under-22 players to declare. Martynas Andriuskevicius, Nemanja Aleksandrov, Tiago Splitter, Marko Tomas, Rudy Fernandez, Johan Petro, Roko Ukic and Luka Bogdanovic are definitely in, according to their agents. A couple of other young studs, including Andrea Bargnani and Ersan Ilyasova, are strongly considering entering the draft.
<LI>Nike will bring back the Hoop Summit again this year. The game will be played in Memphis on April 9, cutting into the last day of the Portsmouth Invitational. The American team looks solid, with NBA prospect Gerald Green, Martell Webster, Louis Williams and Monta Ellis all on Team USA.
The international team is tougher to get our hands around. The list is always tentative because many of the top international players are playing pro ball in Europe. It's playoff time over there and many teams are reluctant to part with their top players.
Insider talked to sources connected to the Hoop Summit and several international NBA scouts and agents and came up with the following list of players who have been invited and are considering and/or are likely to play.
Lithuanian do-it-all forward Vilmantas Dilys and Italian two-guard Marco Belinelli top the list of invited participants.
Other players who have been invited include Greece's sweet-shooting Dusan Sakota, Turkish point guard Semih Erden, England's big man (and Duke recruit) Eric Boateng, Lithuanian guard and sharp-shooter Martynas Pocius, Australian point guard Adam Gibson, and French big man Ian Mahini and quick point guard Michael Makongo.
Others top invitees include Turkish forward Ersan Ilyasova, Chinese big man Yi Jian Lin, Serbian forward Nemanja Aleksandrov and Georgian guard Manuchar Markoishivili. However Aleksandrov is currently injured and Ilyasova, Yi and Markoishivili have team commitments that may keep them from playing.
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