Trade out of first round, collect picks for 2013

[kerouac9]

I usually kind of hate trade down scenarios, because they tend to be based on a fan's expectation of what a team that they're unfamiliar with might desperately want, and then assume that they'll give up too much to get whatever player it is that we don't want (in this case, the usual suspect is Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan).

On the way in to work this morning, I was listening to the ESPN First Draft podcast, which is as annoying as you'd expect a draft podcast that puts together Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay to be. That being said, it was pretty clear that even these hucksters are having a very difficult time getting excited for the picks in the first two-thirds of the first round.

Yes, the 2013 draft has a pretty clear first tier of 6-8 players, but if you compared that group to the draft classes of the last two seasons, would they even be included? I have my doubts.

Several years ago, the Browns under Eric Magnini traded down multiple times in the 2009 draft from their original position of 5th overall to 21st overall, eventually picking Alex Mack. Two years ago, the Browns traded with the Falcons from the sixth-overall pick (used on Julio Jones) to the 21st overall selection again, use to take Phil Taylor, picking up a 2nd, 4th, and future first-round pick in the process.

I'd love to see the Cards skip down the draft board with an eye on picking up 3rd-5th round draft picks in 2013 and 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2014. Unless you're Adam Schein, there's little hope for the 2013 Arizona Cardinals season to be successful, unless you truly believe that Ken Whisenhunt somehow left 5 or 6 wins on the field last year.

Re-build the depth on the team and enable yourself to part ways with Daryn Colledge, Adam Snyder, and maybe Kerry Rhodes, and then have the ammunition to identify some top skill position players in 2014.

 

[Mulli]

Great thoughts. Can they keep podvader off that pod all together please?

 

[kerouac9]

Great thoughts. Can they keep podvader off that pod all together please?

I dunno. It's pretty clear that he doesn't have the relationship with those guys that he does on some other podcasts, and he mostly hangs in the background and offers some transitional questions. I have no problem with that. If you can't stand 45 seconds of Jay Soderberg in a 35-minute podcast, the problem may not be Jay.

 

[WildBB]

I see a pretty good group of about 15 players. Some may do very well in the NFL. It's always a crap shoot.

You also have a new regime looking to make a splash and a stamp on the team. It won't be put off a year. I think it's more likely they try to trade back into the first round top of the 2nd, than it is they will move back. Although personally I'd like to see them move back slightly. Preferably with Miami if they can pry another 2nd away either this year or next.

 

[kerouac9]

I see a pretty good group of about 15 players. Some may do very well in the NFL. It's always a crap shoot.

You also have a new regime looking to make a splash and a stamp on the team. It won't be put off a year. I think it's more likely they try to trade back into the first round top of the 2nd, than it is they will move back. Although personally I'd like to see them move back slightly. Preferably with Miami if they can pry another 2nd away either this year or next.

This is the worst possible reason (except maybe fan relations) to make a personnel move in the NFL. Like the Jaguars' owner pushing to trade for (and start) Tim Tebow.

There's no point in drafting (or spending other draft capital to draft) players as the foundation of your franchise that aren't going to be as good as you need them to be. That's drafting Levi Brown 5th overall and Alan Branch 33rd overall to "make a statement" about how physical you want to be up front.

Nevermind the fact that Levi Brown isn't capable of playing up to that lofty draft status, and Alan Branch is a poor fit to the system and position you're going to try and shoehorn him into (nose tackle).

I think that we're going to find that there will be as many--if not more--quality starters chosen in the 2nd 25 picks in this draft as there are in the first 25 selections. In that environment, you're better off pushing that draft capital into the future, when you're going to have a better chance of locating elite talent, or moving into a position to get it.

 

[Mulli]

I dunno. It's pretty clear that he doesn't have the relationship with those guys that he does on some other podcasts, and he mostly hangs in the background and offers some transitional questions. I have no problem with that. If you can't stand 45 seconds of Jay Soderberg in a 35-minute podcast, the problem may not be Jay.

No, it is with Jay.

 

[Chopper0080]

I usually kind of hate trade down scenarios, because they tend to be based on a fan's expectation of what a team that they're unfamiliar with might desperately want, and then assume that they'll give up too much to get whatever player it is that we don't want (in this case, the usual suspect is Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan).

On the way in to work this morning, I was listening to the ESPN First Draft podcast, which is as annoying as you'd expect a draft podcast that puts together Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay to be. That being said, it was pretty clear that even these hucksters are having a very difficult time getting excited for the picks in the first two-thirds of the first round.

Yes, the 2013 draft has a pretty clear first tier of 6-8 players, but if you compared that group to the draft classes of the last two seasons, would they even be included? I have my doubts.

Several years ago, the Browns under Eric Magnini traded down multiple times in the 2009 draft from their original position of 5th overall to 21st overall, eventually picking Alex Mack. Two years ago, the Browns traded with the Falcons from the sixth-overall pick (used on Julio Jones) to the 21st overall selection again, use to take Phil Taylor, picking up a 2nd, 4th, and future first-round pick in the process.

I'd love to see the Cards skip down the draft board with an eye on picking up 3rd-5th round draft picks in 2013 and 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2014. Unless you're Adam Schein, there's little hope for the 2013 Arizona Cardinals season to be successful, unless you truly believe that Ken Whisenhunt somehow left 5 or 6 wins on the field last year.

Re-build the depth on the team and enable yourself to part ways with Daryn Colledge, Adam Snyder, and maybe Kerry Rhodes, and then have the ammunition to identify some top skill position players in 2014.

I would be ok with this. It would be a hard sell, but also probably the best thing for the future of the team. Some examples.

OL: You are looking to add an impact OG or C, but as much as I think that is important, you are able to find those players later in the draft. Examples of potentially good OL late 1st through the 5th round...

Jonathan Cooper - North Carolina (maybe)
Travis Frederick - Wisconsin
Barrett Jones - Alabama
Brian Winters - Kent St.
Jordan Mills - Louisiana Tech
Menelick Watson - Florida St.
Terron Armstead - Arkansas Pine-Bluffs
Larry Warford - Kentucky
Brian Schwenke - California
David Quessenberry - San Jose St.

Now, you aren't going to add a bunch of these guys, but you can find one of two to battle for spots this year and replace Snyder, Colledge and Sendlein in 2014.

LBs

After the top guys, there is a bit of a gap. But if you want to mid round guys, there are plenty of options

Cornellius Carradine - Florida St.
David Bass - MIssouri Western
Quanterus Smith - Western Kentucky
Jaime Collins - Southern Mississippi
Sio Moore - Connecticut
Keith Pough - HOward
Kevin Reddick - North Carolina
Kiko Alonso - Oregon
Bruce Taylro - Virginia Tech
Greg Blair - Cincinatti

CBs / S
Another position in the draft where it isn't great at the top or the back, but is really good in the middle. Having multiple picks in the mid rounds would allow the Cards to look at some 2nd/3rd round prospects that could be ready to replace William Gay in 2014. When you consider Gay, an average CB, earns 3+ mil and these CBs should cost under 1mil, you can see the cost savings. Same goes for S.

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

If someone was going to offer to trade up to 7th, value wise in order to pick up their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd this year, they would need to be picking at about 18th or lower. I have participated in enough mock drafts already, tried a variety of scenarios for the Cards, and studied up on enough college players that I would love us to find a team willing to do that. I think other teams feel the same way however that you can get just as productive a player at any position at 18 as you can at 7. So why give up two picks to move up. Hopefully though, there will be someone who covets a top player who maybe falls down to 7. Someone like Jones, Moore, or Lotulelei who some team might drool over.

This is a great draft to have a couple of 2nd and 3rd round picks in. The Bengals and Dolphins are the 2 teams that have that, and thus would be two teams that could afford to move up with us and still be in good shape during the next couple rounds. Miami could give us their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks and still have one in each of those rounds. But why would they, they are sitting perfect like they are and could actually pick up 5 potential starters in this draft, which they really need too - 1st - DE, 2nd - WR, CB, 3rd - S, TE.

No, I can't see trading back as a possibility for us this year.

 

[JeffGollin]

You Play to Win The Game...

You don't play "to win the draft" unless it helps you win the game.

If trading picks and players to compile a lot of 2013 draft picks will make us a better football team, go for it. But, in most cases, you have to give up something to get something - i.e. talent for numbers.

When we traded talent (access to Suggs) for numbers (Pace and Bryant), that didn't work out so well. We wound up a worse football team not a better one.

I'm not saying "never do it." But if you are going to do something like that, do it smartly.

 

[Totally_Red]

I'm dubious that many teams will want to trade up, but if it means acquiring a first and second next year, I'd be tempted to do it.

 

[Totally_Red]

Mike Mayock on the 2013 draft

I just finished listening to Mike Mayock on this year's draft. Some interesting observations he made.

1. There is more depth in the first three rounds in this draft than usual, but he doesn't think there are the difference makers at the top.

2. The strength of this draft is DT, OG and OT.

3. Chance Warmack is the best player in this draft in his opinion.

4. He isn't sure there is a quarterback with a first round grade. On Geno Smith, says he can make all the throws, but he's troubled about his tendency to miss wide open receivers by a wide margin. Also, mentioned that if his first read isn't there, he drops his eyes and has trouble going to subsequent reads. Once again, he doesn't see a first round quarterback in this draft. (But of course, one or two will be taken.)

 

[kerouac9]

You don't play "to win the draft" unless it helps you win the game.

If trading picks and players to compile a lot of 2013 draft picks will make us a better football team, go for it. But, in most cases, you have to give up something to get something - i.e. talent for numbers.

When we traded talent (access to Suggs) for numbers (Pace and Bryant), that didn't work out so well. We wound up a worse football team not a better one.

I'm not saying "never do it." But if you are going to do something like that, do it smartly.

But if there aren't (many) players in the draft who are going to help you win the game, why take them if you don't have to?

I don't really care about getting "value" as much as I care about getting a good player. We're better off--in this draft class--trading quantity for quality and getting out from a bunch of mid-level free agency contracts that are/were way out of line with the market.

Suggs would be the first overall pick in this draft class if he were coming out today. He was selected 10th overall in the 2003 draft. That's how vacant of elite talent this group is. Mark Sanchez would clearly be the best quarterback in this draft if he were coming out today. He might be the consensus #1 overall pick in the draft. That's now terrible this draft class is at the top.

 

[Cards Czar]

You don't play "to win the draft" unless it helps you win the game.

If trading picks and players to compile a lot of 2013 draft picks will make us a better football team, go for it. But, in most cases, you have to give up something to get something - i.e. talent for numbers.

When we traded talent (access to Suggs) for numbers (Pace and Bryant), that didn't work out so well. We wound up a worse football team not a better one.

I'm not saying "never do it." But if you are going to do something like that, do it smartly.

The persons who made that trade are not longer with the organization. With a new front office you will have a different view on player reivews.
After the top 5 there are between 10-15 player that are rated about the same so you can move down and still get a player with the same grade.

 

[Azlen]

The persons who made that trade are not longer with the organization. With a new front office you will have a different view on player reivews.
After the top 5 there are between 10-15 player that are rated about the same so you can move down and still get a player with the same grade.

If that's true then why would any team want to trade up?

 

[DoTheDew]

If that's true then why would any team want to trade up?

Exactly. Trading down might make sense for us this year, but who does trading up make sense for?

 

[kerouac9]

If that's true then why would any team want to trade up?

That's the issue. Why would team want to trade up? Ideally, because there are steeper drop-offs at certain positions (OT after Joekel and Fisher, CB after Milliner, maybe WR after Keenan Allen--we'll know more after the Combine), teams who have a defined need at those positions may be interested in moving up.

There are teams with real need at just a couple of positions that aren't particularly deep in the draft. The difference on The Huddle Report between Dee Milliner and the #2 CB (Jonathan Banks) is 25 spots.

The other hope is that somehow Star Lotulelei falls to us, and there's a feeding frenzy to get down.

The ideal scenario is that Lotulelei falls and someone wants to move up to get him, then Fisher gets taken before our pick and someone wants to move up to get Lane Johnson.

 

[kerouac9]

THR has 15 spots between OT Lane Johnson (O[verrated]klahoma) and OT D.J. Fluker (Alabama), which could be another flex point in the draft for teams looking to fill a particul need.

 

[SissyBoyFloyd]

Two things that I always laugh about this time of the year:

1. Nearly every single player drafted is a gamble. Putting so much faith in how one or two pundits rank the players is silly. They are just speculating at best. One thing the rankings never tell you is which player fits your system the best. Just look back a year and see which players made the big impact from last year's draft. Many players we all were drooling over last year at this time, were disappointments at best. I know I was crazy like lots of you over Melvin Ingram last year. I thought he would be the stud of the draft, just like I do Warmack this year, and like some of you think Jones or whoever might be. I was very surprised of the mediocre play of Ingram last year for the Chargers. I thought they got the biggest steal of the draft last year, as did all Charger fans who were jumping for joy when Ingram fell to them.

2. In all the mock drafts, I think the most accurate get maybe 6 picks correct out of all the first round picks, and hardly any from then on. That is my favorite thing about the draft is all the surprise picks and how the experts sit in the booth during the draft commenting on why each team chose that guy over the guy they all had assumed they would pick.

Hopefully we will simply do what is best for our team, no matter who we draft or what trades we make.

 

[kerouac9]

Two things that I always laugh about this time of the year:

Says the guy who did a mock draft where he executed about 15 trades, including Larry Fitzgerald for an ever-increasing pile of magic beans.

Yes, if you're trying to match particular players to particular teams, everyone is going to end up wrong. But the population of players who are generally in the top 25-35 picks in the draft is static saving for maybe 10% of the players (i.e., 2 or 3). For example, it's possible that Jonathan Cooper is a first-round pick, but it's not likely that he's a Top 5 pick.

As for Melvin Ingram, he only started 2 games. You really shouldn't evaluate a draft after only a year.

 

[Chopper0080]

THR has 15 spots between OT Lane Johnson (O[verrated]klahoma) and OT D.J. Fluker (Alabama), which could be another flex point in the draft for teams looking to fill a particul need.

IMO the big "trade" points in this draft are as follows

QB: end of round 1. Someone will have a guy they like, and will move back into the first round to get him.

RB: NA (no top end talent)

WR: NA (bunched level of talent, nothing stands out yet)

TE: NA (deep class)

OT: Top third of round 1. A bunch of teams need OTs and there are three that are considered LTs. Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson. Once the second one goes, teams will be looking to move up for the last of those 3.

OG: Mid thrid of round 1. If the top tackles go and Warmack + Cooper are available, teams will be willing to give up a mid rounder to jump up a spot or two for one of these guys. The gap between Cooper and Frederick is big enough to warrant this.

c: NA (no top end talent)

DE: Top third of round 1. Werner and Ansah will be hot names. I think Moore's name will cool down a bit as his size will could come into question as a 4-3 DE. If this happens, there is essentially two top end 4-3 DEs and they will be in demand.

3-4 OLBs: Top third of round 1. Three things that I am predicting will happen at the combine that will make this a trade up position. 1: Jarvis Jones clean bill of health will put him as the top OLB in this draft. 2: Dion Jordan's size will entrench him as a 3-4 OLB and force some teams to look at Mingo. 3: Barkevious Mingo's freakish athletic ability will cause teams to look at his game tape less. By draft time, these 3 will be in high demand and I would guess at least one makes it to #7.

DT: Normally I would say Lotulelei, but this class is too deep with Richardson, Floyd, Hankins, Jessie Williams and Jenkins. I can't see any team giving up much to move and grab one. Good talent and lots of it here.

CB: Mid round 1. Milliner will be the key to this. If he shows well, I think a team will see him as a #1, and move to get him. If he doesn't blow people away, he falls into the rest of the top tier consisting of Xavier Rhodes, Desmond Trufant, and Jonathan Banks.

S: Top half round 1. There coudl be a battle for Kenny Vaccaro.

 

[kerouac9]

I can't see a team willing to give up much to get a guard, but for the most part I think you're right. Although I think the DE and OLB class is deep and varied enough that teams will find a way to live with the #2 or #4 player at their position, and take advantage of the depth deeper in the draft. I don't expect that there's going to be a Von Miller-to-Aldon Smith-type dropoff (which clearly hasn't been that steep--although it kind of has, too--it seemed that way at the time) at the pass rusher position.

As for the DTs after Lotulelei, it'll depend on the Combine and Pro Days. My understanding is that there's a steep dropoff between him and the next guy--like 5-10 places in the draft.

 

[JeffGollin]

The persons who made that trade are not longer with the organization. With a new front office you will have a different view on player reivews.
After the top 5 there are between 10-15 player that are rated about the same so you can move down and still get a player with the same grade.

I've posted a long explanation of how to trade down without getting burned - a few times over the past year; basically:

Figure out who's on our board at #7 that we like a lot, and - if there are several players at the top of our board that we rate close together, look to trade down but to no later than the final guy on our list.

Example: If there are 5 guys rated close together still on our board that we like at #7, be willing to trade down but no farther than #11. We could add an extra pick or two while still be guaranteed to get one of those 5 guys.

 

[Cards Czar]

If that's true then why would any team want to trade up?

That's the issue. Why would team want to trade up? Ideally, because there are steeper drop-offs at certain positions (OT after Joekel and Fisher, CB after Milliner, maybe WR after Keenan Allen--we'll know more after the Combine), teams who have a defined need at those positions may be interested in moving up.

There are teams with real need at just a couple of positions that aren't particularly deep in the draft. The difference on The Huddle Report between Dee Milliner and the #2 CB (Jonathan Banks) is 25 spots.

The other hope is that somehow Star Lotulelei falls to us, and there's a feeding frenzy to get down.

The ideal scenario is that Lotulelei falls and someone wants to move up to get him, then Fisher gets taken before our pick and someone wants to move up to get Lane Johnson.

What I should of said is that if lets say their are a top 6 player available and a team wants to trade up to get their guy before another team takes him then it might be good to trade down.

 

[Cards Czar]

I've posted a long explanation of how to trade down without getting burned - a few times over the past year; basically:

Figure out who's on our board at #7 that we like a lot, and - if there are several players at the top of our board that we rate close together, look to trade down but to no later than the final guy on our list.

Example: If there are 5 guys rated close together still on our board that we like at #7, be willing to trade down but no farther than #11. We could add an extra pick or two while still be guaranteed to get one of those 5 guys.

That's what I should of stated.

 

[football karma]

I could see some demand at 7 for one of the top shelf pass rushers ( which isn't exactly set here in AZ, but....)

Werner, jones, Moore-- by 7 there is likely only one left

I could imagine a New Orleans trading up from 15 to get the pass rusher they want