I think that is a pretty good bet. The NU game is your stumbling block and given the lack of success for ASU on the road since Koetter arrived only enhances your chances.
I'm staying away from both these spreads, especially when there's way better options out there. Such as a talented Virginia team at home giving away 20.5 pts to a garbage Tar Heel squad with a lame duck coach that nearly lost to William & Mary last week.