Quantity Over Quality
by Omar Kelly Ft. Lauderdale Sun Sentinel March 8, 2006
http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_college_hurricanes/2006/03/quantity_over_q.html
Every year around this time I find myself asking the same question. How can a team with so many potential draft picks not…. you full in the blank because it really varies.
Sometimes its win the national championship (2003 and 2004), and sometimes its win the conference title (2005 and 2006).
This draft will again prove the Hurricanes have talented athletes on the roster, and that the coaches are developing them (see Kelly Jennings, Roger McIntosh and Sinorice Moss), but you have to wonder what’s happened to UM's top end talent because this draft class of Hurricanes is steady, but not sexy.
The bottom line is I’m told by draft gurus you don’t have that many people from all 32 NFL teams show up to Miami’s Pro Day last Saturday without at least one first rounder being in the group. Or maybe those scouts were just looking for a little sun last weekend after spending a week in Indianapolis. However, they seemed to be all business to me, showing up at the Hecht Center early Friday to go over film.
Interestly, two Florida teams (the Jaguars and Bucs) were well represented, and pleasant weather can't be used to justify their attendance, so it has to be the talent. There could be as many as 10 UM players drafted in April, which would be the most since the 2002 draft that had 11 Hurricanes picked.
Just for you, I'll break up this analysis into a few categories based on some recent draft talk: first round candidates, possible first day picks, count me in (guys who I’d be shocked if they weren’t drafted), draft long shots, and guys whose agents should be hustling to get them rookie free agent deals from now.
FIRST ROUND CANDIDATES
ERIC WINSTON
GOOD NEWS: May have salvaged himself as a late first rounder (think Bucs) with strong performances at the combine and UM’s pro day. The only think I don't know is whether his knees have checked out fine.
BAD NEWS: His short arms are troubling to some teams, and that’s the same think (alligator arms) that tanked Brett Romberg’s stock three years ago. Offensive lineman need long arms for punching.
PROGNOSIS: He’s battling with Auburn’s Marcus McNeil to become the third tackle taken in the draft, behind Virginia’s D’Brickashaw Ferguson and USC’s Winston Justice. Winston likely won’t fall past the first pick of the second round, which belongs to the Texans, a team in desperate need of help on its offensive line and is run by a GM, Charlie Casserly, whom Winston's father once coached under. Chew on that.
KELLY JENNINGS
GOOD NEWS: He hasn’t hurt his stock one bit while showcasing his talent to NFL teams at the Senior Bowl, combine and UM’s pro day. His instincts and agility have helped him boost his stock. A lot of teams think he'll be good in a zone system, which he doesn't have much experience in.
BAD NEWS: He was a bit on the thin side at the NFL combine, checking in at less than 180 pounds. His lack of size wouldn’t be so bad if he didn’t have the rep of shying away from contact, which I personally think is a bit inaccurate. Sure he didn't make bone-crushing hits like Antrel Rolle, but he got the stops.
PROGNOSIS: Some teams and scouting gurus have him rated as the second best cornerback in the draft, behind only Clemson’s Ty Hill. Others have him in the top five, behind guys like Hill, Texas’ Michael Huff, FSU’s Antonio Cromartie, and Ohio State’s Ashton Youboty.
SINORICE MOSS
GOOD NEWS: Teams feel he was underutilized in Miami’s offense (surprise, surprise), and are comparing him to his older brother, Santana Moss, athletically. Some even think he’s a better route runner than big bro.
BAD NEWS: He’s super small (5-foot-8), and not a proven punt returner considering all the guys he was playing behind during his career. But he has proven he can contribute on special teams as a flyer.
PROGNOSIS: This is the weakest receiver draft in years and the law of supply and demand will boost his value, potentially pushing him into the late first round. He’ll likely be the second or third receiver taken, behind Ohio State’s Santonio Holmes and Florida’s Chad Jackson. At worst a third round pick, but look for him to go in the second I'm told.
POTENTIAL FIRST DAY
ORIEN HARRIS
GOOD NEWS: He plays a position (DT) that’s always overvalued in the draft, and he’s been fairly productive at the highest level of college football despite facing regular doubles from a guard and center.
BAD NEWS: Since the Senior Bowl his stock has slipped more than any other Hurricane. His personality has been questioned, especially after he opted not to workout at the combine (talk about the pressure these NFL teams put on non-first rounders not willing to workout). He’s two inches shorter than what NFL teams hoped. There is concern he can't play in a 3-4 defense, which is the new fad in the NFL.
PROGNOSIS: Harris is going to have to go on damage control to keep his stock from falling out of the draft’s top 10 defensive tackles. I'm hearing third round.
DEVIN HESTER
GOOD NEWS: Not many offensive difference makers are in this draft and some teams think he could be one.
A number of teams like him as a receiver just as much as they like him at cornerback, if not more. He’s lucky that those two positions are the weakest in the 2006 draft. One draft board has him rated as the sixth best receiver, which tells you something about this crop of wideouts.
BAD NEWS: Jack-of-all-trades, master of none, outside of returns. Exactly how much is a return specialist worth? I’m sure we’ll find out in this draft.
PROGNOSIS: His 4.28 40-time at UM’s pro day has pushed his stock back into the first day, but it’s doubtful he’s a first round pick. That’s just too much money to invest in a project without a position. The Rams, Bears and Broncos have supposedly taken a liking to him, and maybe a good team (Indianapolis, Steelers (who will likely lose Antwan Randel El in FA) looking for a little edge in the return game takes a gamble on him late in the second.
ROGER MCINTOSH
GOOD NEWS: Out of all the UM players who went to the combine he helped himself the most I’m told. One board had him as the 8th best outside linebacker, which is two spots ahead of FSU’s A.J. Nicholson and five spots behind FSU’s Ernie Sims.
BAD NEWS: Physically he grades out as a first day guy, but durability issues (back and knees) could push him down. Supposedly, he did better at the combine than he did at UM’s pro day for some reason.
PROGNOSIS: He’s projected to be a possible third round steal in what’s considered the deepest position in the draft. Last years draft featured a talented group of linebackers as well, but to give you some perspective about how deep this class is keep this in mind. Last year 32 linebackers were brought to the combine. This year 38 were invited.
COUNT ME IN (TO THE DRAFT)
RASHAD BUTLER
GOOD NEWS: Teams like him as a left tackle, where he had a better year on film (2004) than last year (2005) at right tackle.
BAD NEWS: His limited strength is an issue, but his athleticism and long arms (36 inches, the longest of all offensive linemen) makes him a good project.
PROGNOSIS: He’s presently rated as the sixth or seventh best tackle. Might sneak into the first three rounds due to his potential, but that will likely be dictated by the laws of supply and demand. If there's a run on tackles in the first two rounds Butler will benefit.
MARCUS MAXEY
GOOD NEWS: I'm told he's one of the biggest mysteries of this draft. Maxey is known as the kid who played ahead of Hester, whom most scouts consider an amazing athlete. Maxey isn't too shabby himself. His size (6-foot-1) and speed (low to mid 4.3's) has plenty of teams intrigued.
BAD NEWS: He thinks too much on the field, but it’s because he hasn’t played enough I'm told. His hips are a little stiff, which means he struggles changing directions.
PROGNOSIS: I'm told there could be a big upside there, and considering this is a weak cornerback draft some team might be willing to gamble on him in the first day.
DRAFT LONGSHOT
JAVON NANTON
GOOD NEWS: Showed he’s quick footed in drills, even though his 40-times (high 4.7's) didn’t say so. His shuttles weren't bad. He's also up to 250 pounds, which is about 10 or so more than his playing weight last season.
BAD NEWS: He was strictly a specialist in college, which means he’ll be even more limited at the next level.
PROGNOSIS: He’s a second day guy, could be taken from 5th round on, or possible be a priority as a free agent. The Rams and Broncos have expressed interest, and both teams supposedly like undersized, speedy defensive ends.
THOMAS CARROLL
GOOD NEWS: To be honest, I haven't really found any.
BAD NEWS: UM rotates its defensive ends so much there isn’t a great deal of film on him, and the numbers from last season (43 tackles, two sacks) aren’t very productive. There are concerns about how well he holds up against the run considering his build (6-4, 240) and marginal strength (16 reps).
PROGNOSIS: He’s a smart player who will add value to some team because he’s got a good chance of making a club as a free agent based on his special teams play.
TONY TELLA
GOOD NEWS: He benched 225-pounds 34 times, which shows he’s strong. His shuttle times at UM’s Pro Day dispelled some the perception that he plays too stuff, or as they say, "In a box."
BAD NEWS: He’s rated as a top 20 guards, but teams are wondering how much upside he has because of his slow feet.
PROGNOSIS: The Redskins and Giants have shown interest, and it’s going to take a team falling in love with him for Tella to be drafted. Like most of UM's offensive linemen, he's paying the price for a disappointing senior season, but should get a shot at making some team's practice squad.
QUADTRINE HILL
GOOD NEWS: He put up good numbers at Miami’s pro day. His vertical (38 inches), 40-time (high 4.5’s) and agility drills proved he’s a good athlete. He could have really benefited from a combine invite.
BAD NEWS: One board had him rated as the draft’s 10th best fullback, which isn’t bad. The only problem with that is there usually aren’t that many fullbacks taken in the draft.
PROGNOSIS: He’s small (6-2, 230) for a fullback, but has enough athleticism to get a free agent contract with special teams in mind.
LEON WILLIAMS
GOOD NEWS: Ran well at the combine and improved on those times at UM, running the 40 in the high 4.5’s.
BAD NEWS: At the combine, for every one drill he looked good in he supposedly looked mechanical in another. What mechanical means, I can honestly say I don't know, but I'm guessing it looks like a tight end running right past you.
PROGNOSIS: He plays an extremely cerebral position, and there is concern about how instinctive he is in the middle. If he’s drafted he’s picked up for his athleticism and a team works with him to find the right position (maybe DE or outside linebacker in a 3-4).
ROOKIE FREE AGENT
There is no prognosis here because I wasn't given one by the scouts and draft gurus I talked to.
GREG THREAT
GOOD NEWS: He check in around average in every pro day test except for the bench press, where he lifted 225 pounds 10 times. The average for safeties at the combine was 15. To be honest, he needed to standout, making scouts question why he wasn't played last year. It helps that he’s played a little cornerback in his college career.
BAD NEWS: Unless some teams falls in love with him based on what they saw as a junior, when he led UM with 136 tackles, he’ll likely go undrafted. Threat must prove he belongs in an NFL camp during private workouts to land a rookie free agent deal.
BUCK ORTEGA
GOOD NEWS: He put up some awesome numbers in UM’s pro day, which featured a 38 ½ inch vertical, and a 40-time in the high 4.5’s.
BAD NEWS: This is a deep tight end draft, which means there’s going to be a lot of productive college tight ends picked by teams. He played a lot as a senior, but didn’t catch many balls (7 receptions for 112 yards last season) and wasn’t a dominant blocker.
TYLER MCMEANS
GOOD NEWS: Looked slimmer at Pro Day than he did during his two seasons at UM, where he was around 340 pounds.
BAD NEWS: Reportedly benched 225-pounds 17 times, which really wasn't impressive. His age (he’s around 25 or older) is certainly a problem to most NFL teams, which want a draftee to have an upside development wise.
TANARD DAVIS
GOOD NEWS: His impressive pro day showing (posted the fastest 40-time and was above average in every other category) made teams actually look him up. Maybe this track standout will get invited to a post-draft camp like Mo Sikes did a couple of years ago and impress someone enough to give him a training camp invite.
BAD NEWS: There is so little film of him as a cornerback it’s going to be hard for him to get a shot. But nothing's impossible.
When it comes to the draft I have three simply rules I go by. First, don't shoot the messenger. Second, this is an inexact science, so some guys are going to slip between the cracks or get picked lower or higher than they should (in UM's case I've never seen the higher part happen since I've covered the team. And third, most of these teams don't want you and especially me to know what they are thinking so there's a lot of misinformation put out there (think Vince Young and his Wonderlic score).
I've learned the draft is like shopping with my wife. We'll hunt and hunt and hunt just to find things below what they are valued at, and maybe if you talk it down you'll get it for less.
by Omar Kelly Ft. Lauderdale Sun Sentinel March 8, 2006
http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_college_hurricanes/2006/03/quantity_over_q.html
Every year around this time I find myself asking the same question. How can a team with so many potential draft picks not…. you full in the blank because it really varies.
Sometimes its win the national championship (2003 and 2004), and sometimes its win the conference title (2005 and 2006).
This draft will again prove the Hurricanes have talented athletes on the roster, and that the coaches are developing them (see Kelly Jennings, Roger McIntosh and Sinorice Moss), but you have to wonder what’s happened to UM's top end talent because this draft class of Hurricanes is steady, but not sexy.
The bottom line is I’m told by draft gurus you don’t have that many people from all 32 NFL teams show up to Miami’s Pro Day last Saturday without at least one first rounder being in the group. Or maybe those scouts were just looking for a little sun last weekend after spending a week in Indianapolis. However, they seemed to be all business to me, showing up at the Hecht Center early Friday to go over film.
Interestly, two Florida teams (the Jaguars and Bucs) were well represented, and pleasant weather can't be used to justify their attendance, so it has to be the talent. There could be as many as 10 UM players drafted in April, which would be the most since the 2002 draft that had 11 Hurricanes picked.
Just for you, I'll break up this analysis into a few categories based on some recent draft talk: first round candidates, possible first day picks, count me in (guys who I’d be shocked if they weren’t drafted), draft long shots, and guys whose agents should be hustling to get them rookie free agent deals from now.
FIRST ROUND CANDIDATES
ERIC WINSTON
GOOD NEWS: May have salvaged himself as a late first rounder (think Bucs) with strong performances at the combine and UM’s pro day. The only think I don't know is whether his knees have checked out fine.
BAD NEWS: His short arms are troubling to some teams, and that’s the same think (alligator arms) that tanked Brett Romberg’s stock three years ago. Offensive lineman need long arms for punching.
PROGNOSIS: He’s battling with Auburn’s Marcus McNeil to become the third tackle taken in the draft, behind Virginia’s D’Brickashaw Ferguson and USC’s Winston Justice. Winston likely won’t fall past the first pick of the second round, which belongs to the Texans, a team in desperate need of help on its offensive line and is run by a GM, Charlie Casserly, whom Winston's father once coached under. Chew on that.
KELLY JENNINGS
GOOD NEWS: He hasn’t hurt his stock one bit while showcasing his talent to NFL teams at the Senior Bowl, combine and UM’s pro day. His instincts and agility have helped him boost his stock. A lot of teams think he'll be good in a zone system, which he doesn't have much experience in.
BAD NEWS: He was a bit on the thin side at the NFL combine, checking in at less than 180 pounds. His lack of size wouldn’t be so bad if he didn’t have the rep of shying away from contact, which I personally think is a bit inaccurate. Sure he didn't make bone-crushing hits like Antrel Rolle, but he got the stops.
PROGNOSIS: Some teams and scouting gurus have him rated as the second best cornerback in the draft, behind only Clemson’s Ty Hill. Others have him in the top five, behind guys like Hill, Texas’ Michael Huff, FSU’s Antonio Cromartie, and Ohio State’s Ashton Youboty.
SINORICE MOSS
GOOD NEWS: Teams feel he was underutilized in Miami’s offense (surprise, surprise), and are comparing him to his older brother, Santana Moss, athletically. Some even think he’s a better route runner than big bro.
BAD NEWS: He’s super small (5-foot-8), and not a proven punt returner considering all the guys he was playing behind during his career. But he has proven he can contribute on special teams as a flyer.
PROGNOSIS: This is the weakest receiver draft in years and the law of supply and demand will boost his value, potentially pushing him into the late first round. He’ll likely be the second or third receiver taken, behind Ohio State’s Santonio Holmes and Florida’s Chad Jackson. At worst a third round pick, but look for him to go in the second I'm told.
POTENTIAL FIRST DAY
ORIEN HARRIS
GOOD NEWS: He plays a position (DT) that’s always overvalued in the draft, and he’s been fairly productive at the highest level of college football despite facing regular doubles from a guard and center.
BAD NEWS: Since the Senior Bowl his stock has slipped more than any other Hurricane. His personality has been questioned, especially after he opted not to workout at the combine (talk about the pressure these NFL teams put on non-first rounders not willing to workout). He’s two inches shorter than what NFL teams hoped. There is concern he can't play in a 3-4 defense, which is the new fad in the NFL.
PROGNOSIS: Harris is going to have to go on damage control to keep his stock from falling out of the draft’s top 10 defensive tackles. I'm hearing third round.
DEVIN HESTER
GOOD NEWS: Not many offensive difference makers are in this draft and some teams think he could be one.
A number of teams like him as a receiver just as much as they like him at cornerback, if not more. He’s lucky that those two positions are the weakest in the 2006 draft. One draft board has him rated as the sixth best receiver, which tells you something about this crop of wideouts.
BAD NEWS: Jack-of-all-trades, master of none, outside of returns. Exactly how much is a return specialist worth? I’m sure we’ll find out in this draft.
PROGNOSIS: His 4.28 40-time at UM’s pro day has pushed his stock back into the first day, but it’s doubtful he’s a first round pick. That’s just too much money to invest in a project without a position. The Rams, Bears and Broncos have supposedly taken a liking to him, and maybe a good team (Indianapolis, Steelers (who will likely lose Antwan Randel El in FA) looking for a little edge in the return game takes a gamble on him late in the second.
ROGER MCINTOSH
GOOD NEWS: Out of all the UM players who went to the combine he helped himself the most I’m told. One board had him as the 8th best outside linebacker, which is two spots ahead of FSU’s A.J. Nicholson and five spots behind FSU’s Ernie Sims.
BAD NEWS: Physically he grades out as a first day guy, but durability issues (back and knees) could push him down. Supposedly, he did better at the combine than he did at UM’s pro day for some reason.
PROGNOSIS: He’s projected to be a possible third round steal in what’s considered the deepest position in the draft. Last years draft featured a talented group of linebackers as well, but to give you some perspective about how deep this class is keep this in mind. Last year 32 linebackers were brought to the combine. This year 38 were invited.
COUNT ME IN (TO THE DRAFT)
RASHAD BUTLER
GOOD NEWS: Teams like him as a left tackle, where he had a better year on film (2004) than last year (2005) at right tackle.
BAD NEWS: His limited strength is an issue, but his athleticism and long arms (36 inches, the longest of all offensive linemen) makes him a good project.
PROGNOSIS: He’s presently rated as the sixth or seventh best tackle. Might sneak into the first three rounds due to his potential, but that will likely be dictated by the laws of supply and demand. If there's a run on tackles in the first two rounds Butler will benefit.
MARCUS MAXEY
GOOD NEWS: I'm told he's one of the biggest mysteries of this draft. Maxey is known as the kid who played ahead of Hester, whom most scouts consider an amazing athlete. Maxey isn't too shabby himself. His size (6-foot-1) and speed (low to mid 4.3's) has plenty of teams intrigued.
BAD NEWS: He thinks too much on the field, but it’s because he hasn’t played enough I'm told. His hips are a little stiff, which means he struggles changing directions.
PROGNOSIS: I'm told there could be a big upside there, and considering this is a weak cornerback draft some team might be willing to gamble on him in the first day.
DRAFT LONGSHOT
JAVON NANTON
GOOD NEWS: Showed he’s quick footed in drills, even though his 40-times (high 4.7's) didn’t say so. His shuttles weren't bad. He's also up to 250 pounds, which is about 10 or so more than his playing weight last season.
BAD NEWS: He was strictly a specialist in college, which means he’ll be even more limited at the next level.
PROGNOSIS: He’s a second day guy, could be taken from 5th round on, or possible be a priority as a free agent. The Rams and Broncos have expressed interest, and both teams supposedly like undersized, speedy defensive ends.
THOMAS CARROLL
GOOD NEWS: To be honest, I haven't really found any.
BAD NEWS: UM rotates its defensive ends so much there isn’t a great deal of film on him, and the numbers from last season (43 tackles, two sacks) aren’t very productive. There are concerns about how well he holds up against the run considering his build (6-4, 240) and marginal strength (16 reps).
PROGNOSIS: He’s a smart player who will add value to some team because he’s got a good chance of making a club as a free agent based on his special teams play.
TONY TELLA
GOOD NEWS: He benched 225-pounds 34 times, which shows he’s strong. His shuttle times at UM’s Pro Day dispelled some the perception that he plays too stuff, or as they say, "In a box."
BAD NEWS: He’s rated as a top 20 guards, but teams are wondering how much upside he has because of his slow feet.
PROGNOSIS: The Redskins and Giants have shown interest, and it’s going to take a team falling in love with him for Tella to be drafted. Like most of UM's offensive linemen, he's paying the price for a disappointing senior season, but should get a shot at making some team's practice squad.
QUADTRINE HILL
GOOD NEWS: He put up good numbers at Miami’s pro day. His vertical (38 inches), 40-time (high 4.5’s) and agility drills proved he’s a good athlete. He could have really benefited from a combine invite.
BAD NEWS: One board had him rated as the draft’s 10th best fullback, which isn’t bad. The only problem with that is there usually aren’t that many fullbacks taken in the draft.
PROGNOSIS: He’s small (6-2, 230) for a fullback, but has enough athleticism to get a free agent contract with special teams in mind.
LEON WILLIAMS
GOOD NEWS: Ran well at the combine and improved on those times at UM, running the 40 in the high 4.5’s.
BAD NEWS: At the combine, for every one drill he looked good in he supposedly looked mechanical in another. What mechanical means, I can honestly say I don't know, but I'm guessing it looks like a tight end running right past you.
PROGNOSIS: He plays an extremely cerebral position, and there is concern about how instinctive he is in the middle. If he’s drafted he’s picked up for his athleticism and a team works with him to find the right position (maybe DE or outside linebacker in a 3-4).
ROOKIE FREE AGENT
There is no prognosis here because I wasn't given one by the scouts and draft gurus I talked to.
GREG THREAT
GOOD NEWS: He check in around average in every pro day test except for the bench press, where he lifted 225 pounds 10 times. The average for safeties at the combine was 15. To be honest, he needed to standout, making scouts question why he wasn't played last year. It helps that he’s played a little cornerback in his college career.
BAD NEWS: Unless some teams falls in love with him based on what they saw as a junior, when he led UM with 136 tackles, he’ll likely go undrafted. Threat must prove he belongs in an NFL camp during private workouts to land a rookie free agent deal.
BUCK ORTEGA
GOOD NEWS: He put up some awesome numbers in UM’s pro day, which featured a 38 ½ inch vertical, and a 40-time in the high 4.5’s.
BAD NEWS: This is a deep tight end draft, which means there’s going to be a lot of productive college tight ends picked by teams. He played a lot as a senior, but didn’t catch many balls (7 receptions for 112 yards last season) and wasn’t a dominant blocker.
TYLER MCMEANS
GOOD NEWS: Looked slimmer at Pro Day than he did during his two seasons at UM, where he was around 340 pounds.
BAD NEWS: Reportedly benched 225-pounds 17 times, which really wasn't impressive. His age (he’s around 25 or older) is certainly a problem to most NFL teams, which want a draftee to have an upside development wise.
TANARD DAVIS
GOOD NEWS: His impressive pro day showing (posted the fastest 40-time and was above average in every other category) made teams actually look him up. Maybe this track standout will get invited to a post-draft camp like Mo Sikes did a couple of years ago and impress someone enough to give him a training camp invite.
BAD NEWS: There is so little film of him as a cornerback it’s going to be hard for him to get a shot. But nothing's impossible.
When it comes to the draft I have three simply rules I go by. First, don't shoot the messenger. Second, this is an inexact science, so some guys are going to slip between the cracks or get picked lower or higher than they should (in UM's case I've never seen the higher part happen since I've covered the team. And third, most of these teams don't want you and especially me to know what they are thinking so there's a lot of misinformation put out there (think Vince Young and his Wonderlic score).
I've learned the draft is like shopping with my wife. We'll hunt and hunt and hunt just to find things below what they are valued at, and maybe if you talk it down you'll get it for less.
