Update on Scherzer

[coyoteshockeyfan]

• Do you think there's a good chance Max Scherzer will be signed before he goes back into the draft pool?
  
  Corey Silvis
  Midland, Mich.

I really thought that Scherzer, who went 11th overall in last year's draft, was going to sign with the Diamondbacks by the beginning of spring training. He entered 2006 as the top righthanded pitching prospect available, but came down with biceps tendinitis and wasn't as spectacular as he had been as a sophomore with Missouri and Team USA. His biggest backer, Arizona scouting director Mike Rizzo, left during the summer to become an assistant GM with the Nationals, so that didn't help negotiations.

Scherzer wasn't going to go any higher than 11th in the 2006 draft, and enough teams had medical concerns about him that he might have slid all the way out of the first round had Arizona not taken him. So from the Diamondbacks' perspective, I can see where they might deem his market value to be no greater than the slot recommendation for the 11th overall pick, roughly $1.9 million.

On the other side, Scherzer's agent Scott Boras has touted him as one of the two best pitchers in the entire 2006 draft. (The other pitcher, not surprisingly, was Boras client Luke Hochevar.) That might not have been the consensus, but that's Boras' position and also Boras-speak for setting his value at the standard elite-college-pitcher contract, roughly a $3.5 million bonus and $5 million guarantee.

As it turns out, the 2007 draft is playing right into Scherzer's hands. It's a bad year for college righthanders, and the best available is North Carolina State's Andrew Brackman, who happens to be another Boras client and has the two-sport potential to draw a parallel to former Notre Dame wide receiver Jeff Samardzija, who got a $10 million contract from the Cubs in January.

Scherzer is going to follow the same path Hochevar did a year ago, after negotiations broke down with the Dodgers, who made Hochevar a supplemental first-round choice in 2005. Hochevar signed with the independent Fort Worth Cats and pitched so well that the Royals drafted him No. 1 overall last June. Scherzer also has signed with the Cats, and one scouting director told me that if Scherzer shows his sophomore form, he'd become the No. 2 prospect in this draft, behind only Vanderbilt lefthander David Price.

The Diamondbacks have paid dearly for their previous two first-round picks, Stephen Drew (a $5.5 million big league contract with another $2 million in easily reachable incentives) and Justin Upton (a record $6.1 million). They probably figured they wouldn't have to go that route again with Scherzer. But if they don't and he pitches well for Fort Worth, he's going to re-enter the draft and make out very well.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/263786.html

Things are not looking good for signing Scherzer, and to add insult to injury this year's draft is looking really thin on pitching.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

I really have a bad feeling about getting the guy signed. With Boras driving up the price, I wouldn't be surprised if Max wound up back in the draft.

 

[coyoteshockeyfan]

I've got a bad feeling that Scherzer will re-enter the draft and get selected much higher this time around, which will only make Boras keep doing what he's been doing. Ugh...

 

[Diamondback Jay]

I've got a bad feeling that Scherzer will re-enter the draft and get selected much higher this time around, which will only make Boras keep doing what he's been doing. Ugh...

I don't think it'll happen that way. I know Hovacher was a more highly touted pitcher than Scherzer and wound up taking a fall. Only thing I could see catapulting Scherzer up in the draft books is a weak pitching class, but I see him taking a fall either way.

 

[overseascardfan]

We are going to end up with a supplemental 1st rounder. I knew we should have went with either Kiker, Bard, Kennedy, or the pitcher out of HS in VA (Jefferies I think). Hopefully they learn their lesson and stay away from Boras clients unless they want to overpay.

 

[devilfan02]

We are going to end up with a supplemental 1st rounder. I knew we should have went with either Kiker, Bard, Kennedy, or the pitcher out of HS in VA (Jefferies I think). Hopefully they learn their lesson and stay away from Boras clients unless they want to overpay.

When you're consistently picking in the top-15 picks, you're gonna have to deal with plenty of Boras clients.

Boras is a complete prick if he thinks Scherzer was the 2nd best pitcher in lasts years draft. He wasn't even a top-5 pitcher and he has injury concerns. We won't sign him