Is this the best NBA draft in a decade or more? Our tier system is loaded with prospects in the top two tiers, challenging some of the best drafts in recent memory.
Big Boards, top 100s and mock drafts are the most efficient way to communicate what I'm hearing from NBA scouts, general managers and the like. Those formats have their place, but there is another format I prefer -- draft tiers.
Ranking players in a single-file sequence is problematic, and for the past decade, most NBA teams have gotten away from the practice. That's also what makes mock drafts so challenging.
In many cases, there is not a consensus on a draft prospect. Two scouts can watch the same player in the same game and come to wildly different evaluations about a player. Two GMs can sit with the same player in an interview and walk away with different impressions about who the player really is. Two analytical models, both purporting to offer a more objective look at a player through his statistics, can spit out radically different conclusions.
Each team may have 10 to 15 voices in the room advocating for different things. Many teams don't decide until draft day who they'll take.
This year is no exception. While Markelle Fultz has been No. 1 on our Big Board most of the year,Josh Jackson,Lonzo Ball,De'Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum have strong advocates. Few teams agree what order the next five or six players should go. Get even further down in the draft and the disparity between how teams rank players grows.
To make sense of all this, I've chronicled a draft ranking -- employed by a number of teams -- called the tier system.
In the tier system, teams group players based on overall talent. Then the teams rank the players in each tier based on team need. This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available, but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs.
A more detailed explanation of how the tier system works can be found here.
Note: Players in each tier are listed alphabetically.
Tier 1 (Potential superstars)
Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington
2017 NBA draft[/paste:font]
Get ready for Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and the 2017 draft, with analysis from Chad Ford and other ESPN experts.
•Mock Draft 6.2
•Big Board 7.2
•Who's in, who's out?
•Ford: Top 100 prospect rankings
Last draft we had just one player in this category: Ben Simmons. The year before that,Karl-Anthony Towns was the only player here.
This category is usually reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars or franchise players. Only six other players since we started this column in 2009 --Blake Griffin,John Wall,Anthony Davis,Andrew Wiggins,Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker-- have been ranked in this slot.
Fultz was unanimously nominated for Tier 1 by the NBA scouts and executives I polled for this piece. Ball was more polarizing for sure, but he still got a majority of the votes for Tier 1.
Three other players -- Josh Jackson, De'Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum -- received votes for Tier 1.
Tier 2 (All-Star potential)
De'Aaron Fox, PG, Fr., Kentucky
Jonathan Isaac, F, Fr., Florida State
Josh Jackson, G/F, Fr., Kansas
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Fr., Arizona
Malik Monk, G, Fr., Kentucky
Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
Dennis Smith, PG, Fr., North Carolina State
Jayson Tatum, F, Fr., Duke
This is the largest Tier 2 we've ever had. This tier is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player in Tier 2 has a weakness that some teams believe will keep him from being a superstar.
In Fox and Jackson's case, it's the lack of a consistent jumper. Isaac needs to add strength and find a position. Markkanen and Monk are too one-dimensional right now. Smith and Tatum might be too selfish with the ball. Ntilikina isn't an elite athlete.
Fox, Jackson and Tatum all received only Tier 1 and Tier 2 votes. Isaac, Monk and Smith all were unanimous in Tier 2. Markkanen and Ntilikina had some Tier 3 votes, but the majority were Tier 2. Zach Collinsreceived a lot of votes in Tier 2, but just barely missed the cut.
Having 10 players in the first two tiers is extraordinary for a draft class.
Tier 3 (NBA starters)
OG Anunoby, F, So., Indiana
Zach Collins, F/C, Fr., Gonzaga
Harry Giles, PF, Fr., Duke
Luke Kennard, G, So., Duke
Donovan Mitchell, G, So., Louisville
This is a solid Tier 3, but with the exception of Collins, most teams see a significant drop-off here. This tier is usually reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers.
Having 15 players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft. The closest we got was in 2014 when we had 12 players in the top three tiers. Of this group, Collins was the only player not to receive Tier 4 votes, so the consensus breaks down at this point.
The biggest issue for scouts was ranking Anunoby and Giles. Both have had significant knee injuries. Giles is actually healed and ready to play, but teams are worried because he has had two major knee surgeries and didn't look nearly as explosive at Duke last season. Anunoby hurt his knee in January and could miss his rookie season.
Based on sheer talent, virtually every scout and front office executive had Giles as either a Tier 1 or Tier 2 prospect. And all but one had Anunoby as a Tier 2 guy. If they get healthy, they're steals in Tier 3. But their previous injuries put a cloud over their draft stock.
Big Boards, top 100s and mock drafts are the most efficient way to communicate what I'm hearing from NBA scouts, general managers and the like. Those formats have their place, but there is another format I prefer -- draft tiers.
Ranking players in a single-file sequence is problematic, and for the past decade, most NBA teams have gotten away from the practice. That's also what makes mock drafts so challenging.
In many cases, there is not a consensus on a draft prospect. Two scouts can watch the same player in the same game and come to wildly different evaluations about a player. Two GMs can sit with the same player in an interview and walk away with different impressions about who the player really is. Two analytical models, both purporting to offer a more objective look at a player through his statistics, can spit out radically different conclusions.
Each team may have 10 to 15 voices in the room advocating for different things. Many teams don't decide until draft day who they'll take.
This year is no exception. While Markelle Fultz has been No. 1 on our Big Board most of the year,Josh Jackson,Lonzo Ball,De'Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum have strong advocates. Few teams agree what order the next five or six players should go. Get even further down in the draft and the disparity between how teams rank players grows.
To make sense of all this, I've chronicled a draft ranking -- employed by a number of teams -- called the tier system.
In the tier system, teams group players based on overall talent. Then the teams rank the players in each tier based on team need. This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available, but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs.
A more detailed explanation of how the tier system works can be found here.
Note: Players in each tier are listed alphabetically.
Tier 1 (Potential superstars)
Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington
2017 NBA draft[/paste:font]
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Get ready for Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and the 2017 draft, with analysis from Chad Ford and other ESPN experts.
•Mock Draft 6.2
•Big Board 7.2
•Who's in, who's out?
•Ford: Top 100 prospect rankings
Last draft we had just one player in this category: Ben Simmons. The year before that,Karl-Anthony Towns was the only player here.
This category is usually reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars or franchise players. Only six other players since we started this column in 2009 --Blake Griffin,John Wall,Anthony Davis,Andrew Wiggins,Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker-- have been ranked in this slot.
Fultz was unanimously nominated for Tier 1 by the NBA scouts and executives I polled for this piece. Ball was more polarizing for sure, but he still got a majority of the votes for Tier 1.
Three other players -- Josh Jackson, De'Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum -- received votes for Tier 1.
Tier 2 (All-Star potential)
De'Aaron Fox, PG, Fr., Kentucky
Jonathan Isaac, F, Fr., Florida State
Josh Jackson, G/F, Fr., Kansas
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Fr., Arizona
Malik Monk, G, Fr., Kentucky
Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
Dennis Smith, PG, Fr., North Carolina State
Jayson Tatum, F, Fr., Duke
This is the largest Tier 2 we've ever had. This tier is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player in Tier 2 has a weakness that some teams believe will keep him from being a superstar.
In Fox and Jackson's case, it's the lack of a consistent jumper. Isaac needs to add strength and find a position. Markkanen and Monk are too one-dimensional right now. Smith and Tatum might be too selfish with the ball. Ntilikina isn't an elite athlete.
Fox, Jackson and Tatum all received only Tier 1 and Tier 2 votes. Isaac, Monk and Smith all were unanimous in Tier 2. Markkanen and Ntilikina had some Tier 3 votes, but the majority were Tier 2. Zach Collinsreceived a lot of votes in Tier 2, but just barely missed the cut.
Having 10 players in the first two tiers is extraordinary for a draft class.
Tier 3 (NBA starters)
OG Anunoby, F, So., Indiana
Zach Collins, F/C, Fr., Gonzaga
Harry Giles, PF, Fr., Duke
Luke Kennard, G, So., Duke
Donovan Mitchell, G, So., Louisville
This is a solid Tier 3, but with the exception of Collins, most teams see a significant drop-off here. This tier is usually reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers.
Having 15 players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft. The closest we got was in 2014 when we had 12 players in the top three tiers. Of this group, Collins was the only player not to receive Tier 4 votes, so the consensus breaks down at this point.
The biggest issue for scouts was ranking Anunoby and Giles. Both have had significant knee injuries. Giles is actually healed and ready to play, but teams are worried because he has had two major knee surgeries and didn't look nearly as explosive at Duke last season. Anunoby hurt his knee in January and could miss his rookie season.
Based on sheer talent, virtually every scout and front office executive had Giles as either a Tier 1 or Tier 2 prospect. And all but one had Anunoby as a Tier 2 guy. If they get healthy, they're steals in Tier 3. But their previous injuries put a cloud over their draft stock.
