Updated Mock Picks 1-27.

[Mitch]

1. IND: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford. A lock.

2. WAS: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor. As sure as death and taxes.

3. MIN: Ryan Kalil, T, USC. They love Claiborne---but cooler heads prevail.

4. CLE: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama. Becomes the new face of the franchise and takes the pressure off McCoy.

5. TB: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU. A 4 on the Wonderlic is better than a 0. Plus, an LSU CB with a very low Wonderlic fared pretty well at #5 last year, didn't he?

6. STL: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame. The best fit of the WRs for them---a bit of surprise, but there are issues with Justin Blackmon, who strikes many scouts as a head case. Floyd isn't an altar boy either, but he's atoned for his sins very well.

7. JAX: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M. Surprise surprise---the club isn't exceptionally confident in Gabbert---they wanted Tebow---and with today's reasonable draft slot salaries it gives a team like this with a new head coach the luxury of drafting QBs back to back.

8. MIA: Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma St. They cannot risk waiting to draft a QB. Weeden is 28, but has the big arm and the gawdy stats.

9. CAR: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina. Tbey stay in state to grab the best potential pass rusher in the draft to go opposite of Charles Johnson.

10. BUF: Luke Keuchly, LB, Boston College. Ah an inside linebacker who can tackle sideline to sideline and be effective in coverage versus TEs (see Gronkowski and Hernandez).

11. KC: David DeCastro, G, Stanford. They want to run the ball and DeCastro gives them the best chance to do it.

12. SEA: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC. They wanted Keuchly but Perry was close second. They will come back with an ILB like Dont'a Hightower or Michael Kendricks in round two.

13. CIN (from Arizona for the #17 and #53 picks): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St. They need a stud WR and are willing to part with their #17 pick and their 2nd rounder to get the player they believe has the most upside.

14. DAL: Mark Barron, S, Alabama. They love this kid and called up to make trades to get him, but didn't offer enough---but they get him anyway.

15. PHI: Riley Reiff, T, Iowa. he fell right into their laps and they cannot resist. Will switch over to RT when Jason Peters returns in 2013.

16. NYJ: Melvin Ingram, OLB/DE, South Carolina. They need a pass rusher and are delirious to find Ingram available.

17. NE (from AZ for the #27 and #47 picks): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina. They love this kid and fear another year of subpar CB play.

18. SD: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama. They are leaping for joy to get him at this pick.

19. CHI: Cordy Glenn, G/T, Clemson. Fits their system to a tee.

20. TEN: Andre Branch, DE/OLB, Clemson. Pass rusher deluxe.

21. CIN: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech. Talk about reloading at the WR position.

22. CLE: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor. Richardson at RB and now Wright in the slot.

23. DET: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama. They cannot believe he slides to them.

24. PIT: Mike Adams, T, Ohio St. Need pick---they figure they can motivate him to excel in their system.

25. DEN: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford, Cardinals are very disappointed---they wanted Fleener at #27---but he becomes PM's new Dallas Clark.

26. HOU: Mohammed Sanu, WR, Rutgers. Need pick.

27. AZ: Whitney Mercilus, OLB/DE, Illinois. The Cardinals get their version of Aldon Smith.

47. AZ: Jonathan Martin, T, Stanford. They will get him in the weight room and fire him up.

53. AZ: Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina. Might be just as good as Mark Barron---tough hitter and all-around playmaker.

80. AZ: Shea McLellin, OLB, Boise St. Too good and aggressive to pass up.

112. AZ: Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina. One of the real sleepers in this draft---big press CB who makes great bursts on the ball.

151. AZ: Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma. The O'Brien Schofield of WRs. A late 1st early 2nd round value when healthy.

177. AZ: Rokevious Watkins, G/T, South Carolina. Versatile and tough.

185. AZ: Kellen Moore, QB, Boise St. Timing is impeccable---can he overcome size and arm strength limitations?

221. AZ: Al Netter, G/T, Northwestern. Super sleeper. This guy is nasty.

 

[kerouac9]

Why do the Bengals need a "stud" WR? They have a guy who's pretty good right now. Name'a A.J. Green. Had 65 receptions and over 1000 yards to go with 7 TDs. And he's a rookie. They also have a first round Tight End named Jermaine Gresham.

Don't think they're in the market for a wideout, and certainly aren't giving up 2 picks in the top 55 to get one. Not in a draft class this deep.

In other Bengals news, their head cheerleader has been charged with having sex with one of her high school students: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/02/sarah-jones-not-guilty-plea_n_1397386.html

 

[Bodha]

I dont see Martin sliding to 47. Dudes bust-destined, but theres no way he slides that far. No way.

I like the trades though. Very much. Whitney, great pick. Id like to use that #53 on a WR. There will be some beasts there. Juron Criner. Maybe Nick Toon. Tommy Streeter. Bunch of ballers.

IMO, we should just wait for the next great safety. Try to grab the next Ed Reed or Troy.

Id also like to use that 4th rounder on Omar Bolden. No ASU homerism, that guy is a legit stud. 4th best CB in last years draft pre-injury.


Wish that draft would happen, but theres no way.

 

[WildBB]

27. AZ: Whitney Mercilus, OLB/DE, Illinois. The Cardinals get their version of Aldon Smith.

47. AZ: Jonathan Martin, T, Stanford. They will get him in the weight room and fire him up.

53. AZ: Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina. Might be just as good as Mark Barron---tough hitter and all-around playmaker.

80. AZ: Shea McLellin, OLB, Boise St. Too good and aggressive to pass up.

112. AZ: Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina. One of the real sleepers in this draft---big press CB who makes great bursts on the ball.

151. AZ: Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma. The O'Brien Schofield of WRs. A late 1st early 2nd round value when healthy.

177. AZ: Rokevious Watkins, G/T, South Carolina. Versatile and tough.

185. AZ: Kellen Moore, QB, Boise St. Timing is impeccable---can he overcome size and arm strength limitations?

221. AZ: Al Netter, G/T, Northwestern. Super sleeper. This guy is nasty.

I'll take it.

Fire Keim.

 

[Buckybird]

I can tell you personally, anything said bad about Blackmon is complete BS!!! My cousin is a a coach at OSU & he swears Justin is a good a kid as they come.

Other than that Mitch you may be dead on...even with Martin sliding mid 2nd.

 

[Broseph]

no way we pass on blackmon at 13 if he's available.

 

[Garthshort]

Mitch, it would certainly make for an interesting draft. And as for geting Moore at QB, well I guess you can never have too many Max Hall's on your roster. I'll say if you want to get him on your PS, DON'T EVER PLAY him in a PS game. Or something like that.

 

[Cardsfanstl]

Why do the Bengals need a "stud" WR? They have a guy who's pretty good right now. Name'a A.J. Green. Had 65 receptions and over 1000 yards to go with 7 TDs. And he's a rookie. They also have a first round Tight End named Jermaine Gresham.

Don't think they're in the market for a wideout, and certainly aren't giving up 2 picks in the top 55 to get one. Not in a draft class this deep.

I agree. Makes very little sense to me.

 

[Vermont Maverick]

Mitch - Good read. It won't happen this way, of course, but I enjoy reading outside the box thinking. New England and Cinci are teams that don't trade up, but again, interesting thought process.

P.S. I knew we were trading down with New England before reading this post, based on your "1-27" title.

 

[Dougmo]

I love the Ryan Broyles pick! Good reciever at great value. In my mock I had us getting him in the 5th which might not be realistic but a fella's gotta have a dream.

 

[JeffGollin]

I'm not sure RG has the riverboat gambling MO that would allow him to make a second trade-down in the first round. Makes for good reading but I just don't see it happening.

Also (& this is just one person's opinion) - In trading out of the #13-hole and then the #17 hole, we seem to be repeating the same mistake we made when we bypassed Suggs and other highly-rated prospects in order to draft Bryant Johnson and Calvin Pace. We wind up with quantity (most of whom wouldn't survive competition with the mid-level guys we've already got) but only second/third echelon quality, albeit among a couple more extra players.

In terms of how the players will come off the board above #13 -

- If Cleveland doesn't trade out of #4, I think they'll take Clairborne.

- Schiano is nervous about Blount's tendency to fumble and I think he'll grab Richardson at #5.

- A WR (Blackmon or Floyd) is a no brainer for the Rams to help Bradford.

- Jacksonville needs a WR too, and figure to take the BWRA (Blackmon or Floyd)

- Carolina (who misses Julius Peppers) figures to be a good fit for Copley at #9.

- Buffalo needs a LT. Reiff is there at #10.

- KC needs a NT and Poe should be close to the top of their BPA board at #11

- Seattle is tricky, but I think Carroll would jump at Keuchly.

- Which leaves DeCastro and Ingram at #13. If either is there, the only way I think we'd trade down to #17 is if there were three more guys rated close to equal with those two (Barron, Upshaw, Glenn ? Maybe K Wright, Hill or Cox?)

I think it would be 75/25 that we'd draft either Ingram or DeCastro rather than trade down.

 

[john h]

1. IND: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford. A lock.

2. WAS: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor. As sure as death and taxes.

3. MIN: Ryan Kalil, T, USC. They love Claiborne---but cooler heads prevail.

4. CLE: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama. Becomes the new face of the franchise and takes the pressure off McCoy.

5. TB: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU. A 4 on the Wonderlic is better than a 0. Plus, an LSU CB with a very low Wonderlic fared pretty well at #5 last year, didn't he?

6. STL: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame. The best fit of the WRs for them---a bit of surprise, but there are issues with Justin Blackmon, who strikes many scouts as a head case. Floyd isn't an altar boy either, but he's atoned for his sins very well.

7. JAX: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M. Surprise surprise---the club isn't exceptionally confident in Gabbert---they wanted Tebow---and with today's reasonable draft slot salaries it gives a team like this with a new head coach the luxury of drafting QBs back to back.

8. MIA: Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma St. They cannot risk waiting to draft a QB. Weeden is 28, but has the big arm and the gawdy stats.

9. CAR: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina. Tbey stay in state to grab the best potential pass rusher in the draft to go opposite of Charles Johnson.

10. BUF: Luke Keuchly, LB, Boston College. Ah an inside linebacker who can tackle sideline to sideline and be effective in coverage versus TEs (see Gronkowski and Hernandez).

11. KC: David DeCastro, G, Stanford. They want to run the ball and DeCastro gives them the best chance to do it.

12. SEA: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC. They wanted Keuchly but Perry was close second. They will come back with an ILB like Dont'a Hightower or Michael Kendricks in round two.

13. CIN (from Arizona for the #17 and #53 picks): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St. They need a stud WR and are willing to part with their #17 pick and their 2nd rounder to get the player they believe has the most upside.

14. DAL: Mark Barron, S, Alabama. They love this kid and called up to make trades to get him, but didn't offer enough---but they get him anyway.

15. PHI: Riley Reiff, T, Iowa. he fell right into their laps and they cannot resist. Will switch over to RT when Jason Peters returns in 2013.

16. NYJ: Melvin Ingram, OLB/DE, South Carolina. They need a pass rusher and are delirious to find Ingram available.

17. NE (from AZ for the #27 and #47 picks): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina. They love this kid and fear another year of subpar CB play.

18. SD: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama. They are leaping for joy to get him at this pick.

19. CHI: Cordy Glenn, G/T, Clemson. Fits their system to a tee.

20. TEN: Andre Branch, DE/OLB, Clemson. Pass rusher deluxe.

21. CIN: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech. Talk about reloading at the WR position.

22. CLE: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor. Richardson at RB and now Wright in the slot.

23. DET: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama. They cannot believe he slides to them.

24. PIT: Mike Adams, T, Ohio St. Need pick---they figure they can motivate him to excel in their system.

25. DEN: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford, Cardinals are very disappointed---they wanted Fleener at #27---but he becomes PM's new Dallas Clark.

26. HOU: Mohammed Sanu, WR, Rutgers. Need pick.

27. AZ: Whitney Mercilus, OLB/DE, Illinois. The Cardinals get their version of Aldon Smith.

47. AZ: Jonathan Martin, T, Stanford. They will get him in the weight room and fire him up.

53. AZ: Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina. Might be just as good as Mark Barron---tough hitter and all-around playmaker.

80. AZ: Shea McLellin, OLB, Boise St. Too good and aggressive to pass up.

112. AZ: Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina. One of the real sleepers in this draft---big press CB who makes great bursts on the ball.

151. AZ: Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma. The O'Brien Schofield of WRs. A late 1st early 2nd round value when healthy.

177. AZ: Rokevious Watkins, G/T, South Carolina. Versatile and tough.

185. AZ: Kellen Moore, QB, Boise St. Timing is impeccable---can he overcome size and arm strength limitations?

221. AZ: Al Netter, G/T, Northwestern. Super sleeper. This guy is nasty.

WOW Mitch! You are the big time gambler. You are the next coming of Jimmy The Greek. Predicting all those trades for the Cards is absolutely wild. Then picking who they will take with those trade downs is even wilder. You had to do a lot of homework to arrive at this. This could be the greatest draft in our history if it all came true or it could be something else. I know next to nothing about all these players so do not know the thinking behind your picks. I am confident you just did not pull this our of the air. Good luck to you and to us.

 

[john h]

I dont see Martin sliding to 47. Dudes bust-destined, but theres no way he slides that far. No way.

I like the trades though. Very much. Whitney, great pick. Id like to use that #53 on a WR. There will be some beasts there. Juron Criner. Maybe Nick Toon. Tommy Streeter. Bunch of ballers.

IMO, we should just wait for the next great safety. Try to grab the next Ed Reed or Troy.

Id also like to use that 4th rounder on Omar Bolden. No ASU homerism, that guy is a legit stud. 4th best CB in last years draft pre-injury.


Wish that draft would happen, but theres no way.

Our #13 pick is high so we should come up with a good player who will start this year or next if we take the BPA. If we start trading down and shooting from the hip there is danger Will Robinson. More is not always better. After around pick #15 you start to flirt with increased possibility of failure.

 

[Cards Czar]

1. IND: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford. A lock.

2. WAS: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor. As sure as death and taxes.

3. MIN: Ryan Kalil, T, USC. They love Claiborne---but cooler heads prevail.

4. CLE: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama. Becomes the new face of the franchise and takes the pressure off McCoy.

5. TB: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU. A 4 on the Wonderlic is better than a 0. Plus, an LSU CB with a very low Wonderlic fared pretty well at #5 last year, didn't he?

6. STL: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame. The best fit of the WRs for them---a bit of surprise, but there are issues with Justin Blackmon, who strikes many scouts as a head case. Floyd isn't an altar boy either, but he's atoned for his sins very well.

7. JAX: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M. Surprise surprise---the club isn't exceptionally confident in Gabbert---they wanted Tebow---and with today's reasonable draft slot salaries it gives a team like this with a new head coach the luxury of drafting QBs back to back.

8. MIA: Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma St. They cannot risk waiting to draft a QB. Weeden is 28, but has the big arm and the gawdy stats.

9. CAR: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina. Tbey stay in state to grab the best potential pass rusher in the draft to go opposite of Charles Johnson.

10. BUF: Luke Keuchly, LB, Boston College. Ah an inside linebacker who can tackle sideline to sideline and be effective in coverage versus TEs (see Gronkowski and Hernandez).

11. KC: David DeCastro, G, Stanford. They want to run the ball and DeCastro gives them the best chance to do it.

12. SEA: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC. They wanted Keuchly but Perry was close second. They will come back with an ILB like Dont'a Hightower or Michael Kendricks in round two.

13. CIN (from Arizona for the #17 and #53 picks): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St. They need a stud WR and are willing to part with their #17 pick and their 2nd rounder to get the player they believe has the most upside.

14. DAL: Mark Barron, S, Alabama. They love this kid and called up to make trades to get him, but didn't offer enough---but they get him anyway.

15. PHI: Riley Reiff, T, Iowa. he fell right into their laps and they cannot resist. Will switch over to RT when Jason Peters returns in 2013.

16. NYJ: Melvin Ingram, OLB/DE, South Carolina. They need a pass rusher and are delirious to find Ingram available.

17. NE (from AZ for the #27 and #47 picks): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina. They love this kid and fear another year of subpar CB play.

18. SD: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama. They are leaping for joy to get him at this pick.

19. CHI: Cordy Glenn, G/T, Clemson. Fits their system to a tee.

20. TEN: Andre Branch, DE/OLB, Clemson. Pass rusher deluxe.

21. CIN: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech. Talk about reloading at the WR position.

22. CLE: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor. Richardson at RB and now Wright in the slot.

23. DET: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama. They cannot believe he slides to them.

24. PIT: Mike Adams, T, Ohio St. Need pick---they figure they can motivate him to excel in their system.

25. DEN: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford, Cardinals are very disappointed---they wanted Fleener at #27---but he becomes PM's new Dallas Clark.

26. HOU: Mohammed Sanu, WR, Rutgers. Need pick.

27. AZ: Whitney Mercilus, OLB/DE, Illinois. The Cardinals get their version of Aldon Smith.

47. AZ: Jonathan Martin, T, Stanford. They will get him in the weight room and fire him up.

53. AZ: Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina. Might be just as good as Mark Barron---tough hitter and all-around playmaker.

80. AZ: Shea McLellin, OLB, Boise St. Too good and aggressive to pass up.

112. AZ: Josh Norman, CB, Coastal Carolina. One of the real sleepers in this draft---big press CB who makes great bursts on the ball.

151. AZ: Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma. The O'Brien Schofield of WRs. A late 1st early 2nd round value when healthy.

177. AZ: Rokevious Watkins, G/T, South Carolina. Versatile and tough.

185. AZ: Kellen Moore, QB, Boise St. Timing is impeccable---can he overcome size and arm strength limitations?

221. AZ: Al Netter, G/T, Northwestern. Super sleeper. This guy is nasty.

Dont think that Cin trades with the Cardinals. Look for Chicago #19 to be on the phone with there picks to grab Blackmon. The bears also need OL but they can get that later in the draft. Getting the #1 WR on the bears board will really help out J Cutler.

How about this: AZ trades #13 to Chicago for # 19 & 50 and a 5th rounder in 2013.

 

[john h]

Mitch, it would certainly make for an interesting draft. And as for geting Moore at QB, well I guess you can never have too many Max Hall's on your roster. I'll say if you want to get him on your PS, DON'T EVER PLAY him in a PS game. Or something like that.

Depending on how our two QB's play this year we should draft a QB every year until we get smart or lucky. Until we get a good QB it does not matter who we get and at what position if our goal is to win a Superbowl. If finishing last gets you a top QB then lets finish last. Perhaps the injury to Peyton may have been the greatest thing to happen to the Colts since they drafted Peyton Manning. Is that not ironic?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Have you ever created a mock without us trading either up or down in the first round? I can't seem to remember one.

Always interesting though.

 

[TJ]

Too high for Wheedon. Miami could wait until pick #42 to have him.

After Tannehill is drafted, I can't see another QB off the board until the 2nd round.

 

[john h]

I'm not sure RG has the riverboat gambling MO that would allow him to make a second trade-down in the first round. Makes for good reading but I just don't see it happening.

Also (& this is just one person's opinion) - In trading out of the #13-hole and then the #17 hole, we seem to be repeating the same mistake we made when we bypassed Suggs and other highly-rated prospects in order to draft Bryant Johnson and Calvin Pace. We wind up with quantity (most of whom wouldn't survive competition with the mid-level guys we've already got) but only second/third echelon quality, albeit among a couple more extra players.

In terms of how the players will come off the board above #13 -

- If Cleveland doesn't trade out of #4, I think they'll take Clairborne.

- Schiano is nervous about Blount's tendency to fumble and I think he'll grab Richardson at #5.

- A WR (Blackmon or Floyd) is a no brainer for the Rams to help Bradford.

- Jacksonville needs a WR too, and figure to take the BWRA (Blackmon or Floyd)

- Carolina (who misses Julius Peppers) figures to be a good fit for Copley at #9.

- Buffalo needs a LT. Reiff is there at #10.

- KC needs a NT and Poe should be close to the top of their BPA board at #11

- Seattle is tricky, but I think Carroll would jump at Keuchly.

- Which leaves DeCastro and Ingram at #13. If either is there, the only way I think we'd trade down to #17 is if there were three more guys rated close to equal with those two (Barron, Upshaw, Glenn ? Maybe K Wright, Hill or Cox?)

I think it would be 75/25 that we'd draft either Ingram or DeCastro rather than trade down.

I much agree with your trade down analysis Jeff. The further down you trade the less chance you have for success. I can see trading up for someone you really want but am not a trade down guy if you are already in a decent slot in the draft. Trading down also opens you up to having the guy you thought you would get being gone. Seems that happened to us one year. If you trade down you obviously do not believe in drafting the BPA and think you are smarter than the rest of the league.

 

[Chopper0080]

Good job shaking things up. You always make it interesting.