TheCardinal
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- Joined
- Dec 13, 2011
- Posts
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Well, boys and girls, the Cardinals barely survived mathematical playoff elimination in Week 14 with their win over Tennessee and Seattle’s loss to Jacksonville. That means we get another set of survival scenarios for Week 15. By my calculations, to stay alive through Week 15, we need:
ARI win over WSH
+
SEA loss to LAR
+
A loss by either CRL or ATL
In addition, to avoid the need for future games to end in a tie, we would also want (though not “mathematically” need):
DAL loss to OAK
+
A loss by either DET or GBP
SEA plays DAL the following week, so since we’re essentially forced into a SEA loss there, DAL would need to lose the other two games. If DAL beats OAK, we would be mathematically alive but would need the SEA-DAL game to then end in a draw. Same thing for DET/GBP if they both win this week (they would then need to tie in their finale). Of note, GBP plays CRL this upcoming week, and our rooting interest hinges on the DET/CHI outcome on Saturday.
If you’ve read this far, congratulations! We can’t catch PHI, MIN, LAR, NOS, and the winner of CRL/ATL. We must catch the eventual loser of CRL/ATL, SEA, DET, GBP, and DAL for the sixth seed. Looking at the big picture, the “simplest” path (not requiring ties) is as follows:
-ARI wins 3
-SEA loses to ARI, and other 2
-DAL beats SEA, loses other 2
-CRL/ATL loser loses other 2
-DET/GBP winner loses other 2
-DET/GBP loser loses at least 1 more
Note, we lose all tie-breakers except to CRL (conference record). Anyone else gets to 9 wins, we can’t pass them.
ARI win over WSH
+
SEA loss to LAR
+
A loss by either CRL or ATL
In addition, to avoid the need for future games to end in a tie, we would also want (though not “mathematically” need):
DAL loss to OAK
+
A loss by either DET or GBP
SEA plays DAL the following week, so since we’re essentially forced into a SEA loss there, DAL would need to lose the other two games. If DAL beats OAK, we would be mathematically alive but would need the SEA-DAL game to then end in a draw. Same thing for DET/GBP if they both win this week (they would then need to tie in their finale). Of note, GBP plays CRL this upcoming week, and our rooting interest hinges on the DET/CHI outcome on Saturday.
If you’ve read this far, congratulations! We can’t catch PHI, MIN, LAR, NOS, and the winner of CRL/ATL. We must catch the eventual loser of CRL/ATL, SEA, DET, GBP, and DAL for the sixth seed. Looking at the big picture, the “simplest” path (not requiring ties) is as follows:
-ARI wins 3
-SEA loses to ARI, and other 2
-DAL beats SEA, loses other 2
-CRL/ATL loser loses other 2
-DET/GBP winner loses other 2
-DET/GBP loser loses at least 1 more
Note, we lose all tie-breakers except to CRL (conference record). Anyone else gets to 9 wins, we can’t pass them.
