I think it would change alot
Those that are picked in the top 25 price tags would go down significantly
Those that are picked in the 25-100 price tags would go up. Pretty much stay the same if around 25, but those later on in this range will receive similar contracts rather than ones 1/3. Or maybe they go down a bit, but overall the price range of 25-100 would be rather similar wherever the actual price point ends up.
Those players that are once in a decade tag (like 5 or so), would get into a bidding war. So some of those perceived rare guys might get even more than a #1 would get.
Those players picked after 100 price tags would go down significantly and be treated more like how UDFA's are treated, not 4th-5th round picks.
People like jones wouldn't get 5 top 1st round picks, spending 40-50 million on them, but I'd bet he'd go out and sign 5 or so guys in the 10-20 million dollar range...equivalent to having 5 picks sandwiched between 20th-75th.
Some clubs would do things like this, and then they're 'done'. ~255 players don't have to be picked. There will be plenty of supply, and not much demand. So those players (ranked 101+) prices will go down significantly. More lower end veterans stay in the league, especially with the good clubs. Age disparity between teams would increase.
I think there is more of a chance for failure, and cap hell. If a gm/owner misses on those half of those five jones type 20-75th ranked players over a couple of years, the cap hell would be pretty extreme.
Especially when these could be teams that generally don't pick in the top 10, so generally don't have the opportunity to kill their cap with 1-2-3 wasted picks. Also with fewer players picked up, it might be harder to fill the gaps if they bomb/get injured.
I do think though on average, those that spend more will have an advantage. But a better advantage would be trying to find a bunch of 3-5th round picks that can contribute for far less than 10-20 mill contracts. So you'll have the jones' doing one way, and some shrewd gm's/scouts that will get the same production for far less of a cost.
I also see it much easier to get into cap hell for those jones'. Because not only can you screw up your cap 'a la redskins' in free agency, but you would then be able to do the same with college players...maybe even both the same year(s).
I don't think not having a draft would happen though. I think it's a negotiating tool, and if negotiations break down, and somehow we don't have a lockout/strike...not having an NFL draft would probably be a one year scenario. But might as well have fun thinking about it.
The college situation is a bit different, you have players from 5,000-10,000 high schools going to 100-200 NCAA football teams. Granted alot of teams year in and year out are good..but still most of those wins come against low talent teams....even in major conferences. The disparity of talent from say USC and NAU is far more than patriots of '07 to miami of '07. Even then it seems every year the have's and have not's gap shrinks. Every year there are surprises, so I don't believe it would drastically skew the system.
Meanwhile you have 300 players or so vying for 32 teams. Money is the main issue. I don't think you'll see rookies who haven't earned a dime acting like karl malone and gary payton when they joined the lakers. I.E. this won't be like how NBA guys like that, or grant hill with the suns come on-board to win. If that did happen, it would be with veterans and not rookies. You may be able to get some prospects a small bit cheaper, so that they can win, but ultimately another 10 percent from another team will change alot of prospects minds from becoming cowboys to becoming buffalo bills.
I think it puts a greater onus on having a shrewd gm who always goes for value and has a keen eye for talent.
I think in certain scenarios it can help good teams re-stock or get pushed over the edge, but also be how some teams fall from the top. Some owner like jones' and snyder, might do good some years, and it looks unfair, but over time, they'll fail too, and it might then be harder to get out of.
I don't feel the cardinals would be in a serious disadvantage, but we would be slightly disadvantaged since we don't make what jerry jones makes. If we were still in SDS I'd be much more concerned.
Jokingly: now's the time to trade draft picks in 2010 and beyond now before they're worthless because they don't exist lol.
There's also only so many endorsements to go around. Like Leinart, I doubt anyone in NY would be clamoring to get him. Mistakes happen, and although it could very well influence 10 prospects a year or so. There are far more than 10 prospects in a draft. There is competition between the top places, so it's more like an oligarchy and not a monopoly...which means it isn't quite so sign-sealed-delivered, and bidding wars can still erupt between the major players. I actually think because of our weather it would be a plus, although we'd be disadvantaged...a plus because compared to other teams not at the top of the food chain, we'd raise up the ladder. Others like said before minnesota, green bay, buffalo types would be hurt more and move down the ladder.
That said, money talks, and they could get some of these guys. Some might be from there, and even might be currently a good team to help attract them. I'm sure if it was this year, minnesota might be considered a good choice..but in future years, probably not unless they win 10-12 games the year b4.
I think this could create even bigger swings. Some teams get better much more quickly. Some cheaply, some expensively. Those that do it expensively might also fall, faster on average then normally. Those that are shrewd can get good quality guys for cheaper than through the nfl draft system and stay good...for longer on average.
I doubt this happens, but if it does, I'd look at the above scenarios to occur. Plus alot more not thought of. Who knows what else they could implement. An NBA style, if cut, you still count on the cap...signing bonus or not. Bigger rosters? Expanded practice team? 18 regular season games? Lots of things that could change things. In fact even the wr push out rule could affect how offenses run...relegate some guys to being halfway useless, and others much more important. Or they might just call more pass interferences because you bumped them, thus a foul, so you might not get the td, but you are sitting on the 1 yard line. Be interesting to see how things play out on all these fronts, but there is still a lot of variability into what a uncapped year or no nfl draft would actually look like from so far out timewise right now. jmo.
