- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 409,680
- Reaction score
- 43
You must be registered for see images attach
[Getty Images]
BBC Radio WM's Mike Taylor for a special Q&A before the final months of the season.
On Ollie Watkins, he ruled the striker has been "not as productive as last season but still pretty good".
But what story do his stats tell?
Watkins has 13 goals and six assists after 29 games in the Premier League so far this season, compared to 19 goals and 13 assists at the end of 2023-24.
In that, his minutes per goal has improved slightly from 170 to 159 while he is averaging a goal contribution every 109 minutes this season, slightly down on 101 last campaign.
However - as pointed out by Taylor - "nobody wishes more than Watkins himself that he had taken a few more chances".
Watkins outperformed his expected goals xG by 2.2 last season while he has underperformed by 0.9 so far this.
Meanwhile, Opta define 'big chances' as a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score and they give examples such as being one on one with the goalkeeper or taking a shot from very close range with a clear path to goal.
This season, Watkins has missed 23 of these big chances, already one more than the 22 across the whole of their charge to the top four last season.
On top of that, his conversion rate is down from 22.1% to 20%.
You must be registered for see images attach
[Getty Images]
Why has Watkins' finishing regressed slightly?
As also referenced in the Q&A, during the first half of the season, Watkins was often playing the first hour of games, helping to tire defences out before being replaced by Jhon Duran who enjoyed cleaning up.
Since Duran left in January, Unai Emery has had to likely tailor his approach more specifically around Watkins, who scored 10 in 23 before Duran's exit and has three in six since.
We cannot forget Watkins was also subject to transfer speculation in late January with Villa rejecting an approach from Arsenal. That added another distraction to what has been a significantly more mixed campaign to the fourth-placed finish in 2023-24.
There is also the possibility of a Euros hangover. Watkins - scorer of England's semi-final winning goal and a substitute in the final - returned late to Villa's pre-season training camp yet started their opening six Premier League fixtures. He did not score in the opening three, immediately putting him on the back foot when it comes to goalscoring statistics.
Despite missing England's first camp of the season in September with muscle fatigue, and the most recent camp with a knee problem, Watkins has featured in every single one of Villa's Premier League and Champions League games so far this season, plus two from three in the FA Cup.
This follows a 2023-24 campaign where he started all but one league game, eight times in the Conference League and another two in the FA Cup before heading to Germany for the Euros.
It is a lot of football and for a team playing more games than previously.
To maintain the level of output he has while playing so many games and managing his body through little niggles is impressive in itself, especially with the added scrutiny that comes with playing in the Champions League.
To have a couple of weeks of rest and recovery over the international break is likely a blessing in disguise before the climax to what could still be a very special Villa season.
*All stats provided by Opta
You must be registered for see images
Continue reading...
