What Lies Ahead

[Harry]

Though I am no longer professionally active, I still have the pleasure of sitting in on discussions with some of my old football cronies. I decided last week’s topic merited a post. We were discussing which playoff contender would have the most difficulty repeating their 2014 performance. To a person they all felt it was the Cardinals and I, after more thought on the subject, tend to agree.

To appreciate the magnitude of Arians’ performance I looked at some of the previous 11 game winning teams. Finding one ranked so low on both offense and defense left me weary before I found a match.

Now consider if you can recall a team with no major free agents coming off 11 wins and yet with so many obvious holes and defects heading into the draft. If you feel challenged, you’re not alone. Off the top the Cards need offensive linemen who can run block. They need pass rushers especially in the form of outside linebackers. They also need running backs and tight ends.

Additionally, they do have some free agent issues on the defensive line and at cornerback. Who will anchor the D-line? Is Powers really ready to start? Can Bethel contribute on defense?

Also Washington’s potential suspension and a lack of development from Minter leave the Cards vulnerable at inside linebacker.

Finally factor in their cap issues, like potentially losing their best receiver and the leadership skills of Fitzgerald.

Of course they will try to renegotiate with Fitzgerald, but that likely fails since he doesn’t fit Arian’s system well. The poison pill contract makes him impossible to trade, so they likely lose him with no compensation. I think they release Ginn and Dockett, trying to re-sign the latter at a lower cost. I think that’s also a long shot to succeed. So now add wide receiver, kick returner and defensive end to that list of needs and it’s quite clear why the Cards face one of the league’s biggest challenges.

This is not to say the Cards cannot contend again, but rather to note how little margin the Cards have for error in this off-season.

 

[az jam]

I agree with Harry,I think the Cards will have a very tough time in 2015. Arians may be a damn good coach but you still need good players.

 

[D-Dogg]

Disagree. They have set a culture of work here, and we made magic with several backup backups and some backup backup backups.

Until the wheels started falling off, this was a top defensive unit and a middle of the pack offense.

To the Dwash point, he did not play at all this year, and his suspension next year will not be for the entire season, so there is a net talent gain at the least talented position on the team.

I doubt we lose Fitz in the first place, but if we do that opens up some money to sign FA. And it isn't like we haven't made solid personnel moves in the past 2 years.

I would not doom and gloom this team one bit.

 

[football karma]

I get the assessment.

I think keeping Palmer upright for at least 14 games will go along way to helping the Cards contend again. I think finding a consistent running game will help with that as well as helping the offense to pick up some slack.

 

[CardLogic]

I hate that you make so much sense, Harry! Plenty of challenges; no question about that.

However, let's not assume that every point raised in Harry's post concludes with a negative outcome. The past two years under the new regime has brought about many pleasant surprises already. Hoping we see a few more in 2015!

 

[b8rtm8nn]

Good assessment - I think this offseason we will find out if Keim and Arians are good or lucky or both.

 

[Cardinal Bob]

Geez Harry, I was just getting over my depression about how our season ended & now you've gone and made me all despressed again!

I hope you are very wrong...but if I think about it - which makes me more despressed - I fear you are most likely right on point here.

Ugh...

 

[Harry]

Not a negative; just an objective look. Matching or even exceeding last year's win total is not impossible just difficult. I remain far more excited about this administration than any other since they got to AZ.

 

[kerouac9]

Youll be reprised to hear this from me, I actually am pretty optimistic about being able to hold it together do another double-digit win season. The reasons are the same ones you mention.

Regression to the mean is going to help a woeful defense and our unfortunate injury woes. The defense is going to backslide, but I said that last year, and they still ended up pretty good. Powers started at CB in 2013 and was solid.

I'm surprised that Indy's name didn't come up in your discussion with your colleagues. Yes, they have Andrew Luck, but they've blown consecutive first rounders now, and tht defense is held together with spit and baling wire.

 

[Catfish]

Good assessment - I think this offseason we will find out if Keim and Arians are good or lucky or both.

Both Steve Keim, and Bruce Arians have proven over a two year period that they are better than good. Keim is one of the league's most respected GMs, and BA (will) be Coach of the Year.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Youll be reprised to hear this from me, I actually am pretty optimistic about being able to hold it together do another double-digit win season. The reasons are the same ones you mention.

Regression to the mean is going to help a woeful defense and our unfortunate injury woes. The defense is going to backslide, but I said that last year, and they still ended up pretty good. Powers started at CB in 2013 and was solid.

I'm surprised that Indy's name didn't come up in your discussion with your colleagues. Yes, they have Andrew Luck, but they've blown consecutive first rounders now, and tht defense is held together with spit and baling wire.

I'm with ya here.

 

[Catfish]

Harry is right-----He is not saying that the Cardinals won't improve-----only that it will be difficult to do so. Each time you get better than you were, it becomes a little more difficult. BA&SK have improved significantly each of the past two years. The way I see it, they will have to bring in 2-3 decent free agents, THEN hit on another 3 or so draft picks in order to keep the improvement going. That will not be easy, especially under our current CAP constraints, and (now our coaching losses).

 

[thephoenixson28]

I think a deal is going to happen with fitz. Check out his last tweet and docketts picture of Bidwill and fitz.

 

[cardfaninfl]

I agree with the details of the OP, just don't see a half empty glass.

Off the top the Cards need offensive linemen who can run block.

Yes, but interior lineman are needed. Far less difficult to find in the draft (which is deep with talented O-Linemen) and in Free Agency.

They need pass rushers especially in the form of outside linebackers.

Agreed, but this draft is also deep at the LB position. With so many young LBs entering the league, new contracts for Free Agent LBs will not be as lucrative. Keim has proven to be able to find veterans at this position, and get them cheap. This year has the all the makings of the Front Office staff doing it again.

They also need running backs and tight ends.

This is where I get a little gloomy. At RB we have a great 3rd-down back/5th receiver, and a few back-ups. This can be argued to be the highest priority. But the third area this draft is very deep is the RB position. If there was ever a time to need a combination of O-Line, LB, and RB... this is the off season to bring in new names.

As far as TE is concerned, as a Cardinal fan, I give up hoping for a great TE or the defense being able to cover one. Arizona will have double-digit wins, or double-digit losses no matter who is playing (or covering) TE.

Additionally, they do have some free agent issues on the defensive line and at cornerback. Who will anchor the D-line?

Even with the probability of Dan Williams getting a fatter paycheck with another team, I believe the D-Line is fine. Williams' snap count and responsibilities can be replaced without a dramatic drop off of productivity.

Agree that the Cardinals will be thin one DB, and will need to bring someone in.

Finally factor in their cap issues, like potentially losing their best receiver and the leadership skills of Fitzgerald.

If Larry returns, problem solved. If Larry leaves, (huge, life-sucking contract) problem solved. Arians either gets his best WR back, or Keim has a little more cap room to find a better fit to what BA wants from that position.

I think they release Ginn and Dockett, trying to re-sign the latter at a lower cost. I think that’s also a long shot to succeed. So now add wide receiver, kick returner and defensive end to that list of needs and it’s quite clear why the Cards face one of the league’s biggest challenges.

Addition by subtraction. Don't think too many people will worry if the screen door hits Ginn on his way out. And the D-Line was arguably more efficient without DD90. Dockett would be missed in the locker room and on the practice field (everyone would love to see him back) but this is similar to the Fitzgerald argument: He returns - Great! He leaves - That is OK, too. Disagree that DE should be added to the list of needs.

With Arian's love for receivers that can take the top off the defense, the wide receiver and kick returner additions to the list of needs can (and guessing it will) be solved with one mid to late round draft pick.

Harry's assessment of the holes is spot-on. Just think THIS Card's staff can fill, or improve, those holes fairly easy this off season.

 

[Russ Smith]

The Cards are a great test of conventional football stats. We won close games all year, that usually doesn't continue year over year. We didn't turn the ball over much until late in the year, again that's normally a one year thing.

The counter is, with Palmer at QB the Cards were legitimately very good, it wasn't until we had the injuries to Palmer and Ellington that the offense got that bad. And then it was so bad it skewed the overall stats.

 

[Stout]

Even with the probability of Dan Williams getting a fatter paycheck with another team, I believe the D-Line is fine. Williams' snap count and responsibilities can be replaced without a dramatic drop off of productivity.

Wrong. I don't know why so many people assume a top NT can so easily be replaced, but it just isn't true. He was the lynchpin of our run defense, the run defense that was so stellar for most of the season. Tell me, how do you suddenly replace him without a dramatic drop off in productivity? *crickets*

 

[Chopper0080]

With next year being a bit of a transitional year, I still don't expect to backslide too much, though I'm not sure that we will have a roster that will be able to handle as many injuries as we had this year. The key will be to determine what needs are most important to what we want to do.

RB-It depends on how much we are going to run the ball, and how much of an improvement we are looking to get. I believe Ellington, Taylor, Grice and Williams can be an ok RB group for a year. Now, I say this because I'm not sure how much Arians really prioritizes the run game, and RBs in general.

OL-It is a need, but we are only losing Fanaika who was adaquate at best. I think you can go into 2015 with Larsen at RG, and be ok. Not great, but ok.

DL-Losing Dan Williams would hurt. I think Dockett signs an extension to stay. The rest of the defensive line is pretty deep.

LB-This is the biggest need area, both OLB and ILB. That being said, this will be a great draft to address either of these needs in the first round.

CB-Depth is needed more than another starter as I think Powers can be ok. Worse things than rolling with Peterson, Powers, and Mathieu in nickel.

 

[NMCard]

Any chance the best run blocker in the draft a couple of season ago pans out?

 

[conraddobler]

I agree with all Harry said.

Here's what I think. I am very happy with a BA as a coach. I think we should as an organization start focusing on winning it all and building a long term winning franchise.

1st step is complete. We needed a quality coaching staff capable of out coaching most other staffs.

We can for the first time in forever check that box.

The next step to me is for the front office to step up and be that front office that is better than most others.

The players will be there and be the right ones of the first two boxes are checked.

I believe in Steve K but he has to learn fast and be on his game for us to do well long term and win a title

 

[oaken1]

win ten games.....don't make the playoffs.....

so,....

win eleven games,....don't win the division,.....

2015..screw it,....win them all............


we have a lot of youth that picked up game experience this season and should further develop in the off season.
that "Further development" is what needs to happen.

as far as KR goes....put PP21 back there again....apparently just focusing on defense is not enough of a challenge to keep his focus,...so keep him from getting bored by giving him more work...and an opportunity to earn that ****** paycheck he gets.

D90 knows where his career is at....and he is not going anywhere.

as soon as they figure out a way to relieve the cap while writing Larry a fat check RIGHT NOW....he will sign....Larry has signed everything they put in front of him that has high up front money.

with MLB healed..... our safety should not have to spend as much time in the box....thus easing some concern for the quality of our second starting corner.


IMO...the most important issues to address are Dumpster Dan(or his replacement) and the LB group

Carl Davis, NT...Iowa.....around the 4th round

or maybe...

Eddie Goldman, NT..Fl State...if he is there in the second

most of the NT's in this draft are actually pass rushers..... Davis is probably the best run stuffer in the group..... But Goldman or Danny Shelton from Washington are both decent at the run while being very explosive....one of them should be on the board in the second rd.

 

[AZCrazy]

Getting Cooper (crosses fingers) into the regular lineup, getting Nicklas back full time, and getting one good young interior lineman should shore up the line for the medium term, especially regarding run blocking.

We need to keep either Williams or Dockett, but probably can't do both.

No position can impact the quality of play on the field for us as much as OLB. Our secondary gave up a lot of big plays this year because they were left on an island every play. We need to generate a 4 man pass rush that works.

 

[ajcardfan]

The Cards are a great test of conventional football stats. We won close games all year, that usually doesn't continue year over year. We didn't turn the ball over much until late in the year, again that's normally a one year thing.

The counter is, with Palmer at QB the Cards were legitimately very good, it wasn't until we had the injuries to Palmer and Ellington that the offense got that bad. And then it was so bad it skewed the overall stats.

This is my opinion to a "T". Quit ripping off my opinion by reading my mind Russ!

 

[ajcardfan]

Wrong. I don't know why so many people assume a top NT can so easily be replaced, but it just isn't true. He was the lynchpin of our run defense, the run defense that was so stellar for most of the season. Tell me, how do you suddenly replace him without a dramatic drop off in productivity? *crickets*

Agreed. It even took the guy five years to get his game up to it's current level. So, its not likely to draft someone who does as well immediately.

 

[Garthshort]

Harry, always like reading your posts. But until FA and the Draft plays out, there is too much conjecture for me. The Cardinals do have a lot of question marks, and I'm guessing that if you sat down with the same group a year ago, the group might have reached a similar conclusion. Doesn't mean they/you are wrong, but the team has had a history of losing, and I think that history influences people who study the team. JMO.

 

[don7031]

The Cards are a great test of conventional football stats. We won close games all year, that usually doesn't continue year over year. We didn't turn the ball over much until late in the year, again that's normally a one year thing.

During the 9-1 run, the Cardinals also converted on third and long at an unsustainable rate.

11-5 could easily have been 5-11.