What made the Niners so good last year...

[Jetstream Green]

One can talk about their defense all they want and how productive Smith was with the way they used him within his limitations...I say poop on that. Their defense is good but it sure is easier to play defense and be productive on offense when your special teams and punter are playing lights out. Last year in my recollection, was the best I ever saw a team win with field position. The Niners were absolutely amazing at it. Teams having to drive deep to score and their offense playing with a short field. I swore I saw teams almost not even get close to mid field, because the Niners constantly made them start behind their own 10 yard line.

 

[Fitz Rulz]

good RB
good TE
and now 3 good WR

 

[Phrazbit]

good RB
good TE
and now 3 good WR

I like a lot of what the Niners have going, but I am not remotely impressed by their receivers. Saying they have 3 good ones is being very generous.

I'd say they have 2 average ones and one big question mark (Moss) who I fully expect to fail miserably. But they do have a great tight end.

 

[Jasper]

Their 2011 team was practically the same as their 2010 team.
I think the coach knew how to evaluate each player and utilize the gameplan to each of their strengths. They just played tough with confidence.

Wink wink we should learn from that.

 

[AZ Native]

Turnovers

 

[Duckjake]

Turnovers

Correct. They were +28 in turnover margin. Compare that to our -13. That's huge when it comes to field position.

Of course the Cardinals get 10 TDs from the Defense and Special Teams in 2010 and still can't beat anybody.

 

[Russ Smith]

Turnovers

Yep. Harbaugh was smart enough to realize I have a great defense, great ST, if we just don't turn the ball over, we'll win.

Much of it was coaching philosophy and some of it was plain old luck. As Duckjake pointed out they had an incredible plus/minus ratio that's very rare that a team repeats something like that year over year.

I expect they'll come back to the pack a bit this year I just hope our OL and QB situation allow us to take advantage of it.

 

[Goldfield]

If there is a team to model ours after this year it would be the 9ers. We have good D and good ST's. We need to limit mistakes and play for field position.

 

[WarnerHOF]

I like a lot of what the Niners have going, but I am not remotely impressed by their receivers. Saying they have 3 good ones is being very generous.

I'd say they have 2 average ones and one big question mark (Moss) who I fully expect to fail miserably. But they do have a great tight end.

I hate the 49ers but if Moss shows up than it's over for the NFL

We are talking about a guy here who gave guys like Gus Frerotte and Brad Johnson career years and is still one of the best athletes in the NFL.

Quite honestly, I actually think we should have taken a chance on him this year rather than drafting Floyd. He's like a hero to Fitz.

 

[Catfish]

good RB
good TE
and now 3 good WR

Even Better Head Coach

 

[Crazy Canuck]

- Strong "D"
- Exceptional turnover ratio
- Special teams

When they set a new record for FG's, you sure as heck know it wasn't their "0".

 

[Dr. Jones]

Correct. They were +28 in turnover margin. Compare that to our -13. That's huge when it comes to field position.

Of course the Cardinals get 10 TDs from the Defense and Special Teams in 2010 and still can't beat anybody.

This.

Field position & Turnover ratio. That is how they won. They also had some scheduling luck. They played a lot of teams that had injuries at that time. Washington, NYG (reg season) & Pittsburgh come to mind immediately.

 

[football karma]

Correct. They were +28 in turnover margin. Compare that to our -13. That's huge when it comes to field position.

this

and FWIW: it was either an NFL record, or darn close. Said differently -- its highly unlikely that they reproduce that turnover margin again. In fact, its more likely (based on what high positive turnover margin teams have done historically) that the 49ers will have a negative turnover margin this year.

I think the 49ers are a 9 win football team

 

[TJ]

All the reasons above are why they succeeded

What could have set them back was their inefficiency on offense. While they had a good run game, their passing game was mediocre at best. They had trouble moving the ball when they started on their own side of the field and their red zone offense was amongst the worst in football, which is why David Akers was so valuable for that team. He could at least get 3 points when the offense failed to get 7. When the defense is only allowing 15 ppg, that is acceptable.

I don't buy that the additions at wideout will make the team any better. Moss is nowhere near dominant anymore. Crabtree is a #2 receiver at best. Jenkins isn't getting off to a good start in SF, and Manningham is just ok. That isn't what will hold them back in the passing game. It will be Alex Smith. Yes, he limited his mistakes last season, but he was ultra conservative, and with adding so many pieces at that position, they are going to ask him to do more than just preserve the game. The coaching staff will ask him to be more aggressive, and I'm not so sure he will live up to the challenge. He is still a lackluster QB, IMO.

Overall, the 9ers got a ton of breaks last season. +28 turnover margin and no major long-term injuries simply don't happen all of the time. Something has to give. They'll still win the division, but they won't win 13 games this season.

 

[PACardsFan]

- Strong "D"
- Exceptional turnover ratio
- Special teams

When they set a new record for FG's, you sure as heck know it wasn't their "0".

This is accurate, but it's ironic that it was 2 special teams turnovers that cost them a trip to the SB!

 

[Russ Smith]

All the reasons above are why they succeeded

What could have set them back was their inefficiency on offense. While they had a good run game, their passing game was mediocre at best. They had trouble moving the ball when they started on their own side of the field and their red zone offense was amongst the worst in football, which is why David Akers was so valuable for that team. He could at least get 3 points when the offense failed to get 7. When the defense is only allowing 15 ppg, that is acceptable.

I don't buy that the additions at wideout will make the team any better. Moss is nowhere near dominant anymore. Crabtree is a #2 receiver at best. Jenkins isn't getting off to a good start in SF, and Manningham is just ok. That isn't what will hold them back in the passing game. It will be Alex Smith. Yes, he limited his mistakes last season, but he was ultra conservative, and with adding so many pieces at that position, they are going to ask him to do more than just preserve the game. The coaching staff will ask him to be more aggressive, and I'm not so sure he will live up to the challenge. He is still a lackluster QB, IMO.

Overall, the 9ers got a ton of breaks last season. +28 turnover margin and no major long-term injuries simply don't happen all of the time. Something has to give. They'll still win the division, but they won't win 13 games this season.

I still say the key to their season is Harbaugh and Smith being strong minded enough to resist trying to "open it up." they got Moss, they signed Manningham and drafted a speedy WR, they have Crabtree and of course VD.

If they decide ok Alex proved himself last year, he's fixed his throwing motion, we're going to open it up a bit this year, they'll probably shoot themselves in the foot.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

This is accurate, but it's ironic that it was 2 special teams turnovers that cost them a trip to the SB!

So true. I was shocked.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

I still say the key to their season is Harbaugh and Smith being strong minded enough to resist trying to "open it up." they got Moss, they signed Manningham and drafted a speedy WR, they have Crabtree and of course VD.

If they decide ok Alex proved himself last year, he's fixed his throwing motion, we're going to open it up a bit this year, they'll probably shoot themselves in the foot.

I certainly hope Harbaugh thinks he signed Peyton.

 

[TJ]

I still say the key to their season is Harbaugh and Smith being strong minded enough to resist trying to "open it up." they got Moss, they signed Manningham and drafted a speedy WR, they have Crabtree and of course VD.

If they decide ok Alex proved himself last year, he's fixed his throwing motion, we're going to open it up a bit this year, they'll probably shoot themselves in the foot.

And that's the $64 question: is the coaching staff sold on the idea that Smith can be much more productive through the air? Essentially overhauling the wideout corp puts a ton of pressure on a QB who has had one respectable season in his 7 year career.

There is a reason why Harbaugh went after Peyton Manning hard in the offseason, and I don't think it has anything to do with Smith proving he's a long-term solution at the position. Had they landed Manning, I'd say Moss would be a legit threat and Manningham would be very productive. Now, the best role they could play on that team, IMO, would be as decoys while relying on Gore, Hunter, Jacobs, and James to move the ball on the ground with the occasional short throw to Vernon Davis.

 

[kerouac9]

If there is a team to model ours after this year it would be the 9ers. We have good D and good ST's. We need to limit mistakes and play for field position.

See... I don't think you can plan around +28 turnover margin. People hate to admit it, but Alex Smith was in the process of becoming a mediocre QB two years before 2012. I don't think we have that luxury.

The team that I'd prefer to emulate is the Atlanta Falcons from 2008-2010, the Early Matt Ryan Years. Their defense wasn't dominant (from 2008 until 2010 they were 24th, 21st, and 16th in yard and 11th, 14th, and 5th in points), but they didn't have to be because they just hammered teams with the run game, limiting the number of offensive possessions and controlling the clock. They had good special teams, but not dominating.

I guess that Atlanta maybe had better offensive line play than we do, but Sam Baker isn't that good of an LT; he's incredibly limited.

The Atlanta Falcons have gone 33-21 in Matt Ryan's first four seasons. Ryan's not an exceptionally accurate passer or someone who relies on the deep ball (60.9% career completions, 7.0 career YPA). And it's not like they're running a system that would be foreign to Whis and Grimm--Mike Mularkey followed Ken Whisenhunt's almost exact career path: five seasons as TE coach for the Steelers, then three seasons as Pittsburgh's OC before moving on to Buffalo. He was even an NFL TE.

 

[MadCardDisease]

- Strong "D"
- Exceptional turnover ratio
- Special teams

When they set a new record for FG's, you sure as heck know it wasn't their "0".

That in a nutshell.

The $1 million question is can the D repeat that unbelievable turnover ratio again. I personally believe that it will be very hard to duplicate.

 

[Mulli]

That in a nutshell.

The $1 million question is can the D repeat that unbelievable turnover ratio again. I personally believe that it will be very hard to duplicate.

With the QB's in the AFC East and NFC West, I would say they have a good shot.

 

[kerouac9]

That in a nutshell.

The $1 million question is can the D repeat that unbelievable turnover ratio again. I personally believe that it will be very hard to duplicate.

Do they have to? They don't have to go 12-4 to win the division. With this schedule, they probably only have to go 9-7. If they fall from +28 to +15 in turnover ratio, are they going to lose more than 3 games that they lost last year?

I don't think the 49ers are going to beat either Green Bay or New England on the road, and I don't think they'll beat New Orleans in the Superdome, either. If they can beat Detroit at home next week, though, they could conceivably run off a seven-game winning streak of DET, @MIN, @NYJ, BUF, NYG, SEA, @ARI that would render their December 16th road trip to New England irrelevant.

 

[Jetstream Green]

This is accurate, but it's ironic that it was 2 special teams turnovers that cost them a trip to the SB!

So true

 

[Jetstream Green]

Do they have to? They don't have to go 12-4 to win the division. With this schedule, they probably only have to go 9-7. If they fall from +28 to +15 in turnover ratio, are they going to lose more than 3 games that they lost last year?

I don't think the 49ers are going to beat either Green Bay or New England on the road, and I don't think they'll beat New Orleans in the Superdome, either. If they can beat Detroit at home next week, though, they could conceivably run off a seven-game winning streak of DET, @MIN, @NYJ, BUF, NYG, SEA, @ARI that would render their December 16th road trip to New England irrelevant.

I think they have a shot at New England (but the current troubles with the Pat's O line and suspect defense might not be as bad as people think once the season starts) but I agree about Green Bay because they are not built to score a lot of points or play catch up. The Niners have to get turnovers and not turn the ball over themselves. Yes, this applies to everyone but to the Niners even more because they are not built to get in a scoring match with someone.