George O'Brien
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The expansion draft to the Bobcats is one of the biggest wildcards in the off season. There has been a lot of discussion about whether they would take one of the big contracts off the Suns hands, but little about what their stategy will be.
It is clear the other NBA owners did not do the Cats any favors when they allowed Charlotte to enter the NBA. The Bobcats are REQUIRED to draft 14 players from a pool of players made available by the other 29 teams. Each team gets to protect 8 players and the expansion draft cannot be used for players who are free agents (I am unclear about restricted free agents, but I have assumed giving a qualifying offer makes them eligible for the expansion draft). Each team has the option of offering a "bribe" for the Cats to take or not take a player up to $3 million in cash and one draft pick. Players drafted by the Bobcats can be waived without effecting their cap space, but the Cats would still be responsible for their salary.
One major complication is that the Bobcats only get 30 million in cap space the first year. This means that the Cats cannot really afford to have any big contracts on their team and even mid range contracts would be a push. The Bobcats have the right to compete for free agents, but that requires that they minimize the cap space taken by players picked up in the expansion draft.
Considering the general quality of the players in the expansion draft, it is not out of the question that the Bobcats would simply choose the 14 cheapest players available and then cut them all. The whole process would cost them only about $15-18 million and then they would have almost as much cap space as Atlanta.
The Cats next best option is to accept bribes on players with expiring contracts where the $3 million bribe would be a big percentage of the contract accepted. For example, Eldon Campbell has a $4.4 million contract for next year and Jerome James has a $4.5 million contract. After the $3 million bribe, this would mean they would be responsible for only $1.4 or $1.5 million and get a future draft pick to go along with him. James is worth more than Campbell, so he might get moved for a restricted future pick.
How does this effect the Suns? At this point, it looks like only White and Eisley will be made available. Of the two, White is likely to be vastly more interesting to the Bobcats since he has only one year left on his contract while Eisley has two years. Also backup point guards are a lot less expensive than backup centers.
Would the Bobcats take white without a bribe? It is possible, but not likely. It is almost certain that the Pistons will pay a bribe to move Campbell who is $1.4 million less expensive than White (before the bribe). Even with the bribe, White would tie up nearly twice the cap space as Campbell. Without the bribe, White's $5.9 million simply prices him out of the Cats price range.
The dollar amount of the bribe is a lot less valuable in moving Eisley. Eisely is owed $13.2 million over two years and the dollar bribe would bring that down to $10.2 million. The only conceivable way that the Bobcats would take Eisley is if the Suns offered this year's lottery pick along with the $3 million. In effect, the Bobcats would be paying $10.2 million for that pick. Lottery picks are valuable, but that is still a lot of money.
The general assumption has been that the Suns could get the Cats to accept White if the Suns offered the $3 million and a future pick. However, it is not certain that they would. Since the Bobcats would know that the only reason the Suns are trying to unload White would be to clear space to go for Kobe, then they would likely demand the Suns lottery pick.
The Suns would have minimal negoiating power. While White would be very valuable in a trade with only one year left on his salary, he would be very hard to move for cap space. None of the teams with cap space are likely to be willing to take White and certainly not want to help the Suns get Kobe.
It is clear the other NBA owners did not do the Cats any favors when they allowed Charlotte to enter the NBA. The Bobcats are REQUIRED to draft 14 players from a pool of players made available by the other 29 teams. Each team gets to protect 8 players and the expansion draft cannot be used for players who are free agents (I am unclear about restricted free agents, but I have assumed giving a qualifying offer makes them eligible for the expansion draft). Each team has the option of offering a "bribe" for the Cats to take or not take a player up to $3 million in cash and one draft pick. Players drafted by the Bobcats can be waived without effecting their cap space, but the Cats would still be responsible for their salary.
One major complication is that the Bobcats only get 30 million in cap space the first year. This means that the Cats cannot really afford to have any big contracts on their team and even mid range contracts would be a push. The Bobcats have the right to compete for free agents, but that requires that they minimize the cap space taken by players picked up in the expansion draft.
Considering the general quality of the players in the expansion draft, it is not out of the question that the Bobcats would simply choose the 14 cheapest players available and then cut them all. The whole process would cost them only about $15-18 million and then they would have almost as much cap space as Atlanta.
The Cats next best option is to accept bribes on players with expiring contracts where the $3 million bribe would be a big percentage of the contract accepted. For example, Eldon Campbell has a $4.4 million contract for next year and Jerome James has a $4.5 million contract. After the $3 million bribe, this would mean they would be responsible for only $1.4 or $1.5 million and get a future draft pick to go along with him. James is worth more than Campbell, so he might get moved for a restricted future pick.
How does this effect the Suns? At this point, it looks like only White and Eisley will be made available. Of the two, White is likely to be vastly more interesting to the Bobcats since he has only one year left on his contract while Eisley has two years. Also backup point guards are a lot less expensive than backup centers.
Would the Bobcats take white without a bribe? It is possible, but not likely. It is almost certain that the Pistons will pay a bribe to move Campbell who is $1.4 million less expensive than White (before the bribe). Even with the bribe, White would tie up nearly twice the cap space as Campbell. Without the bribe, White's $5.9 million simply prices him out of the Cats price range.
The dollar amount of the bribe is a lot less valuable in moving Eisley. Eisely is owed $13.2 million over two years and the dollar bribe would bring that down to $10.2 million. The only conceivable way that the Bobcats would take Eisley is if the Suns offered this year's lottery pick along with the $3 million. In effect, the Bobcats would be paying $10.2 million for that pick. Lottery picks are valuable, but that is still a lot of money.
The general assumption has been that the Suns could get the Cats to accept White if the Suns offered the $3 million and a future pick. However, it is not certain that they would. Since the Bobcats would know that the only reason the Suns are trying to unload White would be to clear space to go for Kobe, then they would likely demand the Suns lottery pick.
The Suns would have minimal negoiating power. While White would be very valuable in a trade with only one year left on his salary, he would be very hard to move for cap space. None of the teams with cap space are likely to be willing to take White and certainly not want to help the Suns get Kobe.
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