Whatifsports.com NFC West Preview

[SuperSpck]

http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=2009NFLNWEST

How it works:

For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 10,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not (see Super Bowl XLII), our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Also, we account for players with injury histories who are considered likely to miss games despite currently being healthy by randomly taking them out of what the analysis dictates is the correct number of games throughout the season. For players who will begin the season injured or who are assumed to replace the current starter during the season, we deliberately make those roster changes in the appropriate weeks. All of these items can cause some perceived inconsistencies with the scores, especially when a team plays one opponent from its division with one set of starters and uses different personnel later.

It's interesting, but lets face the truth. There's no way this'll work as an indicator. Too many gameday variables over the course of the season.
That said, it's the blackhole in the NFL calendar and we need something to talk about that doesn't revolve around the celebrity athlete's social calendar.

Here's the Cards excerpt, but check out the rest of the website for the division and league.

Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
Coming off a surprising Super Bowl appearance, the Cardinals will win more than three games outside the division this season. Last year the Cardinals were 6-0 vs the NFC West, but were outscored 325-247 going 3-9 against the rest of the schedule. A defense that stepped up in the post-season will match the dynamic offense, carrying Arizona to a first round bye as the #2 seed in the NFC. The Cardinals average 25.0 points per game (#3 in the NFL) and allow 18.3 points (#5) against a schedule featuring five games against 2008 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 15-1

Most Significant Newcomer: Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB - Arizona finished second-to-last in the NFL in yards-per-carry in 2008. Kurt Warner and the passing offense proved that they do not need an effective running game to be successful, but it wouldn't hurt. Wells has all the tools to be an above-average NFL running back. There are obvious injury and effort concerns, which will likely limit Wells in his rookie season. If he can stay healthy all year, Wells presents a big upgrade over Tim Hightower and could easily compete for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Since he is probably not going to stay healthy, the timing of his the games he misses will have a great impact on the Cardinals' season. Arizona should cruise into the playoffs and do everything it can to make sure that Wells is good to go for the post-season. Our projections have Wells rushing for 845 yards on 195 carries in 11 games.

Biggest Strength: Passing Offense - Kurt Warner has this game figured out. In Arizona that has a lot to do with getting Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston the ball in the position to make things happen. We assume Boldin will stick with the Cardinals and that Early Doucet will step up and split targets with Breaston. Keeping Warner and Fitzgerald together is the key. They connected on 96 passes for 1,431 yards and 12 touchdowns in the regular season and then elevated that to 546 yards and seven touchdowns on 30 receptions in the playoffs. Fitzgerald's post-season numbers, tallied against some of the best defenses in the league, project to 120 catches, 2,184 yards and 28 touchdowns in a 16-game season. While that's not to be expected, especially without wide receiver guru Todd Haley - now the head coach in Kansas City - and with question marks surrounding Boldin, Fitzgerald is still a relative lock for 1,400+ yards and double-digit touchdowns. At 37, Warner probably does not have many great years in the NFL left. We expect him to play in 14 games and be the most efficient quarterback in the league.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Rushing Offense - A healthy Chris Wells for a whole season may alleviate this. The defense is not as much of a concern as many may think after the secondary showed great improvement into the playoffs and added Bryant McFadden. Even with the benefit of a fantastic passing attack, Arizona ran for just 3.5 yards-per-carry as a team in 2008. The offensive line has not changed and returning leading rusher Tim Hightower only ran for 2.8 yards-per-carry in his rookie season, so the Cardinals will need Wells to have any chance of improving the ground game.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Early Doucet, WR - Wells injury probability is worrisome and there are no tight ends of note. Doucet, a second-year player our of LSU, may be a late-week fantasy opton as a potential third wide receiver if anything happens to Anquan Boldin or Steve Breaston cannot match his 2008 performance. Last year, the Cardinals' number three WR caught 77 passes for 1,006 yards. In the projections, Doucet catches 39 passes for 488 yards and four touchdowns.

Closest Game: @New York Giants (Week 7) - If the Cardinals are going to get back to the Super Bowl, they are going to have to prove again they can beat a very tough defensive team like the Giants on the road.

Fantasy Notables (fantasy rank at position in parentheses): Kurt Warner (5) 3,522 yards, 25 TDs, 12 INTs; Chris Wells (37) 863 total yards, 8 TDs; Tim Hightower (46) 845 total yards, 6 TDs; Larry Fitzgerald (2) 92 receptions, 1,389 yards, 10 TDs; Anquan Boldin (19) 80 receptions, 947 yards, 6 TDs; Steve Breaston (32) 58 receptions, 843 yards, 6 TDs; Neil Rackers (4) 44/44 XPS, 26/31 FGs

Projected 2009 Results:
WK OPP AVG WIN % SCORE
1 San Francisco 49ers 71 26-17
2 @Jacksonville Jaguars 82 28-19
3 Indianapolis Colts 58 24-20
5 Houston Texans 85 29-15
6 @Seattle Seahawks 69 22-18
7 @New York Giants 41 17-21
8 Carolina Panthers 62 26-20
9 @Chicago Bears 59 20-19
10 Seattle Seahawks 76 26-16
11 @St. Louis Rams 87 30-17
12 @Tennessee Titans 66 22-19
13 Minnesota Vikings 67 25-18
14 @San Francisco 49ers 61 21-20
15 @Detroit Lions 67 25-20
16 St. Louis Rams 84 31-16
17 Green Bay Packers 76 28-17

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Love it. Thats the way I see it going down too even to my Fantasy sleeper in Doucet. I agree with most everything written.

Like you mentioned game day conditions and injuries make this an impossible to task to predict at this level of detail but I bet they are right more of then they are wrong. I would like to see how these whatif "predictions" have done in the past as a whole.

 

[cardsfanmd]

Very cool, thanks for posting it. I'm a fan of the absolute record.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Am i missing something? The bottom simulation has the Cards going 15-1 but on top their record is 11-5. I'll take 11-5 but 15-1 would be awfully nice.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Am i missing something? The bottom simulation has the Cards going 15-1 but on top their record is 11-5. I'll take 11-5 but 15-1 would be awfully nice.

The absolute record means the Cardinals were favored to win at least 50% of the time, but they feel the listed record is more likely.

 

[cardsfanmd]

Am i missing something? The bottom simulation has the Cards going 15-1 but on top their record is 11-5. I'll take 11-5 but 15-1 would be awfully nice.

You sir get an "A" for Avatar. Its almost as nice as the last one.

 

[imaCafan]

So the absolute record says we lose at NY and win every other game. I'LL TAKE IT!!!!!

 

[NuttinButTDs]

It also goes to state that Card lose to Eagles in NFC championship and Eagles beat Patriots

 

[cgolden]

Last year their projections for the NFC West weren't too great. They had us going 6-10 and finishing third in the West behind SEA (9-7) and the Niners (8-8).

http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2008/6/18/554282/what-if-sports-predicts-t

 

[SuperSpck]

Last year their projections for the NFC West weren't too great. They had us going 6-10 and finishing third in the West behind SEA (9-7) and the Niners (8-8).

http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2008/6/18/554282/what-if-sports-predicts-t

Love the perspective from the past!

To be fair, Seattle was blitzkrieged by the injury bug and SF did finish 7-9 and were competitive in a number of games. The Rams imploded like few could manage and all 3 of the teams had mid-season coaching changes.

It's things like that and the human element that keeps this from being a god-like device, but it does make for good discussion.

For fun, I pitted the 08 Cards vs the 98 Cards:

http://whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=1320115&nomenu=1&teamfee=-1&theme=-1

The new Cards won 34-28. What an amusing little program.

 

[Perfectionist]

11-5, I will take that, and surge to the Super Bowl again!!

 

[DoTheDew]

Not sure I entirely agree with their win % chances, our odds @ Detroit seem too low, whereas perhaps @Tennesee is too high. (66% @Ten 67% @ Det seriously?) The Bears seem to be overrated based on the Cutler trade, I could understand if this was a month later and they expected it to be an ice cold game.

But 11-5 projected sounds about right.

 

[az1965]

Fitzgerald's post-season numbers, tallied against some of the best defenses in the league, project to 120 catches, 2,184 yards and 28 touchdowns in a 16-game season

LOL!!

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Love the perspective from the past!

To be fair, Seattle was blitzkrieged by the injury bug and SF did finish 7-9 and were competitive in a number of games. The Rams imploded like few could manage and all 3 of the teams had mid-season coaching changes.

It's things like that and the human element that keeps this from being a god-like device, but it does make for good discussion.

For fun, I pitted the 08 Cards vs the 98 Cards:

http://whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=1320115&nomenu=1&teamfee=-1&theme=-1

The new Cards won 34-28. What an amusing little program.

I did what I thought was a better matchup between my two favorite Cards teams:

1984 ST. Louis Cardinals vs. 2008 Az. Cardinals

http://whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=1321207&nomenu=1&teamfee=-1&theme=-1

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Last year their projections for the NFC West weren't too great. They had us going 6-10 and finishing third in the West behind SEA (9-7) and the Niners (8-8).

http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2008/6/18/554282/what-if-sports-predicts-t

The computer got this right:

Possible Fantasy Sleeper - Steve Breaston - They acknowledge that Doucet is probably the better pick but they chose instead to bypass him and go with Breaston as a 'deep sleeper.' His improved workouts in the offseason have been making some noise and they agree that he's a dynamic force with the ball in his hands.

 

[CaptTurbo]

Id liek to see Breaston run after the catch. Seems to me he hist the ground as soon as he gets the ball.