Why I don't want Durant

[1tinsoldier]

unfortunately, the other side of the debate is that Durant seems to be the only promising opportunity to salvage our title hopes next season with CP3

with Ayton and Paul gone in 2 years we could essentially be back to Booker-ball and he'll be taking up about 55 million of cap space per year

 

[1tinsoldier]

Do you happen to remember how Booker played the last two games?

Sometimes that happens, especially when you have lost hope.

i do. but that's kind of the main concern with Durant. age. injury. maybe losing hope again

is Durant the fix to our problem? or will he be par for the collision course that is the phx suns
-- and the bust that was 2 seasons of the Jersey Nets?

 

[Hoop Head]

If the above isn't enough to create pause, consider this. KD is....mercurial. He's not a good team leader. Who's to say he isn't going to want out again in 1 or 2 years? Except we won't be receiving a king's ransom in trade compensation at that point. We'll be receiving something along the lines of what we got for Chris Paul. In other words, this car's value drops like a rock as soon as we drive it off the lot.

Of course we wouldn't get as much in 2 years if we had to trade KD away but that's after 2 years. So you look to recoup some picks that we lost initially to bring him in and move on. His value won't stay the same through the length of his contract, that isn't realistic, so we're paying for the next 2-3 years and if we move him again then deal with it when it comes.

I don't get this part at all. If we pay 100 dollars for him now and can only 40 for him in 2 years then that's ok because the 60 difference is the cost of having him for 2 years.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

What's wrong with calling for rational decision making?

For me specifically, I'm concerned about a max asset trade. If you can get Durant for peanuts, rock n roll.

People are looking at this from the wrong perspective.

KD has 4 years on his contract, with maybe 2 years left of mvp caliber elite play (I'm not sure I agree with this but just to make the point).

How many more years of elite play does CP have? I'd say one, if that.

That means the Suns title window is one year.
If we can't win the title this year, how are we going to as the team becomes less talented?

So we're going to sell practically every asset we have for the better part of a decade on a title window of 1 year?

I discussed cap implications in length in a previous post, so I'll just sum up here. The Suns will have zero cap room until maybe when the new tv deal kicks in, in the 25'-26' season (and that's with a gutted roster). KD will be 37, in the final year of his deal. We still won't own any our first round picks for another 3 years.

If the above isn't enough to create pause, consider this. KD is....mercurial. He's not a good team leader. Who's to say he isn't going to want out again in 1 or 2 years? Except we won't be receiving a king's ransom in trade compensation at that point. We'll be receiving something along the lines of what we got for Chris Paul. In other words, this car's value drops like a rock as soon as we drive it off the lot.

This team spent a long time in darkness to finally have a bright future. We still have a bright future. I'm not opposed to all-in moves, but only on a good bet. On a bad bet, you're just tilting your money away.

For the type of trade compensation being discussed, any player could be obtained if they become available. Pass on this deal and use the assets to acquire a young star coming into his prime. That's what I would do.

First, I think I pretty rationally went through and discussed reasons why we wouldn’t be completely pissing away our future. When Durant and Paul ride off into the sunset (a) we still have our Batman in Booker, (b) we likely still have a robin in either bridges or cam Johnson (and maybe both if some trade rumors are to be believed), (c) book is showing to be an excellent recruiter, so who is to say he won’t reload with their eventual departure, and (d) the cap is going up and two enormous contracts will be coming off, and no, there will never be a time where we have a three year span without draft picks as you suggest. A swap isn’t getting rid of a pick. It is SWAPPING. That means you get a pick back. And the swap only occurs if your pick is better than theirs. Do really think coming out of all this the nets will have a substantially worse pick then we will with a prime Booker and his robin? That the nets will be substantially better than us? We likely retain many, if not all of the swaps - and if they do convey it may only be a drop of 2-8 spots. Not a death knell as you suggest.

And no, these deals don’t come around all the time. And they rarely do so around young stars coming into their prime. And there’s little chance of it coming during the remaining playing time of Paul as a high level all-nba player. You have to maximize your shot when it shows.

 

[Yuma]

Do you happen to remember how Booker played the last two games?

Sometimes that happens, especially when you have lost hope.

Or trying to do it all by yourself....

Those last two games Book did not have a good second scorer to roll with.

 

[Mainstreet]

I don't like DA more than either bridges or Johnson. I think he's probably the most frustrating player I've ever watched. But if we are talking about the size, skills, and potential that's needed to be great in the playoffs I don't think there's any question he is more valuable.

I also disagreed with the general sentiment around here that Chris Paul is done. He said some really crappy luck when it comes to being injured or sick or both in the playoffs and my own personal feeling is that he was a bit overwhelmed by it all happening again in may. I also believe getting a KD or just some other shot creator on this team would help extend his career. While I'm at it I think Cameron Payne is going to have very good 2022-23 season and I'm not terribly worried about the back up PG like a lot of people here.

To me this is about how the Phoenix Suns feel about Kevin Durant's health over the next few years and then of course what it will take to actually get him here.

Come on one other thing I seem to disagree with most people here about. I want crowder back if at all possible.

Joe

Here is a stat comparison of Ayton and Bridges over their four year careers. Ayton is still 23 and Bridges is 25. Take it for what it is worth.

Player Comparison: Deandre Ayton vs. Mikal Bridges | Stathead.com

Player Comparison: Deandre Ayton vs. Mikal Bridges

stathead.com

For some reason it wouldn't let me add Cam Johnson but here are his 3 year stats.

Player Comparison: Cameron Johnson | Stathead.com

Player Comparison: Cameron Johnson

stathead.com

 

[AzStevenCal]

i didn't follow enough of the Nets playoff games, but if my memory serves, i recall seeing Durant get punished in the 4th quarter of their elimination game -- ineffective with his one-on-one, neutralized, committing turnovers?

It wasn't just the 4th quarter either, he was outplayed several times one on one by not just Tatum but by Grant Williams too. And when they doubled him he turned the ball over like he'd modeled his game after Point Book. And that was BEFORE he gave up. I know people aren't fond here of SAS but he was all over KD's horrible playoff games and demeanor and for good reason.

 

[Raindog]

Don't disregard the possibility that Durant may have checked out mentally by that point in the playoffs. I am not saying that is a ringing endorsement of him, just that it may account for some of his lackluster play. And the reality is that it happens, especially with superstar types like Durant.

And before anyone gets on too much of a high horse about it, it looked like more than a few of our guys did the same thing in the playoffs last year. Just saying...

 

[AzStevenCal]

Don't disregard the possibility that Durant may have checked out mentally by that point in the playoffs. I am not saying that is a ringing endorsement of him, just that it may account for some of his lackluster play. And the reality is that it happens, especially with superstar types like Durant.

And before anyone gets on too much of a high horse about it, it looked like more than a few of our guys did the same thing in the playoffs last year. Just saying...

Fair enough. And it's also possible that Nash let him play far too many minutes, I didn't check but when I rewatched that series it seemed like he never left the floor for more than a couple minutes. Regardless, do you really want to give up Ayton, Bridges, CamJ, multiple role players and 7 picks/swaps for an aging player with injury concerns that just "checked out mentally"?

 

[elindholm]

A swap isn’t getting rid of a pick. It is SWAPPING. That means you get a pick back. And the swap only occurs if your pick is better than theirs. Do really think coming out of all this the nets will have a substantially worse pick then we will with a prime Booker and his robin? That the nets will be substantially better than us? We likely retain many, if not all of the swaps - and if they do convey it may only be a drop of 2-8 spots. Not a death knell as you suggest.

I think you're missing the point about pick swaps. Picks at the end of the first round don't have much value regardless. We all know that the success rate there is low. Maybe there are some front offices who have a special ability to sniff out talent at the point in the draft, or maybe the teams who have managed to do well there over the years (e.g. the Spurs) have just gotten lucky. But if it's a skill, we know that the Suns do not have that skill.

So the point isn't that a swap will make the Suns pick at 24 instead of 21, or whatever the details are. It's that a swap prevents the Suns from picking high, unless both the Suns and Nets are bad. You're looking at a period of maybe as long as eight years in which the Suns are almost guaranteed never to have a lottery pick, no matter how badly things go for them. That's the issue. Yes, the Suns will have a pick every other year, but the pick is unlikely to produce a quality player.

Frankly, the greatest value of late first-round picks is to sweeten trade offers. The idea of picking at 20-something a few years from now is somehow a lot more appealing than the idea of picking at 20-something today. But in a scenario where the Suns have already traded away every other pick until the end of time, they have no more trade sweeteners, because those every-other-year picks aren't tradeable. You're talking about a situation where, for several years, the Suns have nothing to trade other than the players they actually have under contract. (We will ignore the trade value of second-round picks, which are included in minor details only for cosmetic purposes.)

So, a few years from now, what can the Suns trade? Players in their rotation, who will be either the stars they want to keep, or low-salary tag-alongs that no one else will particularly want. No young talent. No future picks. Their hands will be completely tied.

When's the last time an NBA team went several years without the ability to make a trade? Has it ever happened? What's the longest the Suns have ever gone without making a trade? I'd be surprised if it's even as long as two years. Heck, it might not even be longer than one year.

You're talking about a team that can't improve through the draft, can't improve through trading, and is severely limited in how they can improve through free agency, because their team salary is already astronomical. For how many years?

 

[JCSunsfan]

I am really hoping this does not go through. I am hoping the relationship with Ayton is not completely damaged. I want to keep this team. I want to try to find an heir to CP3 and keep the core of Booker, Mikal, Johnson, and CP3, along with Ayton together. That should produce long-term competitiveness. All this Durant stuff is next year or nothing, and I think even next year will be nothing. We will be doing what the Lakers and Nets have already proven is a fool's errand (the bubble championship was a fluke in my mind).

I could tolerate a Durant for Ayton core exchange (I know it would take a third team). I do not want to give up Mikal or all our draft capital.

What this does is gives us a next year desperation window, and then we will be having a fire sale to get back draft capital so we can rebuild. The only trade piece we will have then is Booker.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I am really hoping this does not go through. I am hoping the relationship with Ayton is not completely damaged. I want to keep this team. I want to try to find an heir to CP3 and keep the core of Booker, Mikal, Johnson, and CP3, along with Ayton together. That should produce long-term competitiveness. All this Durant stuff is next year or nothing, and I think even next year will be nothing. We will be doing what the Lakers and Nets have already proven is a fool's errand (the bubble championship was a fluke in my mind).

I could tolerate a Durant for Ayton core exchange (I know it would take a third team). I do not want to give up Mikal or all our draft capital.

What this does is gives us a next year desperation window, and then we will be having a fire sale to get back draft capital so we can rebuild. The only trade piece we will have then is Booker.

Folks, I think you all need to face the reality that this FO/Coaching Staff doesn’t want and will not bring Ayton back. They didn’t give him an extension last off-season, they let his name get out there in trade talk prior to the deadline, they BENCHED him in a Game 7 and then totally embarrassed him in the press conference and there literally hasn’t been ONE WORD THIS OFF-SEASON that they are even TRYING to negotiate a new contract with him.

Continuing to think that the Suns will just run it back if we don’t get Durant isn’t realistic. The alternative if we don’t get KD is we’re going to sell Ayton for Pennie’s on the dollar and become a 6ish seed, mired in mediocrity for the foreseeable future.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Folks, I think you all need to face the reality that this FO/Coaching Staff doesn’t want and will not bring Ayton back. They didn’t give him an extension last off-season, they let his name get out there in trade talk prior to the deadline, they BENCHED him in a Game 7 and then totally embarrassed him in the press conference and there literally hasn’t been ONE WORD THIS OFF-SEASON that they are even TRYING to negotiate a new contract with him.

Continuing to think that the Suns will just run it back if we don’t get Durant isn’t realistic. The alternative if we don’t get KD is we’re going to sell Ayton for Pennie’s on the dollar and become a 6ish seed, mired in mediocrity for the foreseeable future.

I think they were just rewarding his effort, keep in mind that he had by far the best plus/minus of any Suns starter in that game. <sad and funny>

And I don't agree that they totally embarrassed him in the press conference. It wasn't the best comment but coaches say it will be handled internally all the time, it doesn't always mean there's a full split between team and player.

Also, the GM has on more than one occasion this offseason claimed that Ayton was a big part of this team and our future plans.

So, all of this is spin - everything I said certainly is, and for all we know, everything you said. The most damning thing is the Monty quote about DA quitting. But we know that Monty was frustrated because of how poorly the entire team was playing and we have reason to believe there was Covid on the team, do we know it wasn't DA struggling from it?

But spin aside your conclusion could easily be correct, that we've moved on from him in every way but the paperwork. Still, I think either keeping him for the long term or keeping him until a better trade market exists for him are far better decisions than giving into the Nets rumored asking price for Durant.

So I'm going to continue to hope that we make the right move. I'm not sure I know what that right move is but I'm pretty sure it doesn't involve giving away our future for Durant.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I think they were just rewarding his effort, keep in mind that he had by far the best plus/minus of any Suns starter in that game. <sad and funny>

And I don't agree that they totally embarrassed him in the press conference. It wasn't the best comment but coaches say it will be handled internally all the time, it doesn't always mean there's a full split between team and player.

Steve… come on. It was at the end of a Game 7, final game. This wasn’t just some bad comment in Game 35 of the season. It was literally the final word on Ayton from the Coach for the season, that just ended in disaster. And he didn’t just throw the line away. He said it and then maddog’d the press in silence pretty much stoning them from asking anything else on Ayton.

If you don’t think that wasn’t embarassing for Ayton, I think you’re living in denial because you want there to be some kind of reconciliation.

 

[elindholm]

Steve… come on. It was at the end of a Game 7, final game. This wasn’t just some bad comment in Game 35 of the season. It was literally the final word on Ayton from the Coach for the season, that just ended in disaster. And he didn’t just throw the line away. He said it and then maddog’d the press in silence pretty much stoning them from asking anything else on Ayton.

If you don’t think that wasn’t embarassing for Ayton, I think you’re living in denial because you want there to be some kind of reconciliation.

Whether the relationship between Williams and Ayton can be mended depends on how strong it was before the blow-up, and we don't have that information. But, if it can't be salvaged and one of them has to go, why would it necessarily be Ayton? Who's more important to the long-term trajectory of the franchise, a top-five center or a top-five coach?

 

[AzStevenCal]

Steve… come on. It was at the end of a Game 7, final game. This wasn’t just some bad comment in Game 35 of the season. It was literally the final word on Ayton from the Coach for the season, that just ended in disaster. And he didn’t just throw the line away. He said it and then maddog’d the press in silence pretty much stoning them from asking anything else on Ayton.

If you don’t think that wasn’t embarassing for Ayton, I think you’re living in denial because you want there to be some kind of reconciliation.

I just didn't read the press conference the same way you did. As for concerns about their relationship though, yes, I am concerned. But it's the absolute silence from Monty afterwards that worries me far more than post game comments following an embarrassing beatdown.

I doubt we bring Ayton back but I don't believe there's zero chance. I think trading him is a mistake but if we do it right it can be a small one. Trading him and Bridges plus picks is the thing that scares me the most. It could pay off but I find it highly unlikely. I think we'd be better served with signing him to an agreeable contract with the understanding that we will try to move him to a team he's willing to play for when his first trading period comes up.

 

[Raindog]

Fair enough. And it's also possible that Nash let him play far too many minutes, I didn't check but when I rewatched that series it seemed like he never left the floor for more than a couple minutes. Regardless, do you really want to give up Ayton, Bridges, CamJ, multiple role players and 7 picks/swaps for an aging player with injury concerns that just "checked out mentally"?

For the record, no I don't want to give up Bridges, Cam, or Ayton, per se. I think giving up all three is too much, and arguably even two of them is too much. I am hoping that a deal can be made where they give up just Ayton of those three and only because it appears they are determined to trade him regardless. The other stuff in the deal I don't really care about.

On the other hand, trading Ayton + (one of) Bridges or Cam for Durant is superior in my opinion to trading Ayton for any of the other junk deals that have been mentioned. Those are all definite steps backwards.

Standing pat and just resigning Ayton isn't a bad option either... but as mentioned, it appears to be a pissing match between the Suns management and Ayton at this point and doesn't seem like that will be an option, unfortunately.

 

[AzStevenCal]

For the record, no I don't want to give up Bridges, Cam, or Ayton, per se. I think giving up all three is too much, and arguably even two of them is too much. I am hoping that a deal can be made where they give up just Ayton of those three and only because it appears they are determined to trade him regardless. The other stuff in the deal I don't really care about.

On the other hand, trading Ayton + (one of) Bridges or Cam for Durant is superior in my opinion to trading Ayton for any of the other junk deals that have been mentioned. Those are all definite steps backwards.

Standing pat and just resigning Ayton isn't a bad option either... but as mentioned, it appears to be a pissing match between the Suns management and Ayton at this point and doesn't seem like that will be an option, unfortunately.

I agree with your first and third paragraph but honestly, I'd rather let Ayton walk for nothing than make a Durant trade that includes DA and Bridges.

 

[Joe Mama]

Where did the information about the trade discussions at the deadline come from anyways? I mean I guess I wouldn't be surprised if there were some informal discussions initiated by other teams, but am I the only one who calls BS on the idea that they were out shopping him around with the best record in the NBA and on a championship run?

I disagree with those that think it's a forgone conclusion he's gone. I really don't think they'll let him sign elsewhere without getting something valuable back. And if we are losing DA and bridges in a trade that only brings back Kevin Durant or Kevin Durant and scraps their damn well be another team involved like Utah who's pitching in several of the draft picks and probably some talent to go to Brooklyn.

I kind of think Brooklyn is dreaming if they think they are going to get the kind of return they are imagining. The part I think that is hilarious is this idea they are going to do the Lakers the favor of taking Westbrook's contract + their pu pu platter of assets for Kyrie Irving. That has to be a media and Lakers fan fantasy.

 

[Raindog]

I kind of think Brooklyn is dreaming if they think they are going to get the kind of return they are imagining. The part I think that is hilarious is this idea they are going to do the Lakers the favor of taking Westbrook's contract + their pu pu platter of assets for Kyrie Irving. That has to be a media and Lakers fan fantasy.

I agree that it makes no sense that the Nets are allegedly willing to give Irving to the Lakers for Westbrook's giant contract (which they will likely immediately buy out of) and a bunch of throwaway dreck, but they will only trade Durant to the Suns if they are willing to send back a king's ransom.

The media seems pretty invested in shaping the narrative of where these star players end up. I've seen several stories over the last couple days basically insulting Nets management for possibly sending Durant to Phoenix (where he wants to go) as well as for considering sending Irving anywhere other than the Lakers. Make of that what you will.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Whether the relationship between Williams and Ayton can be mended depends on how strong it was before the blow-up, and we don't have that information. But, if it can't be salvaged and one of them has to go, why would it necessarily be Ayton? Who's more important to the long-term trajectory of the franchise, a top-five center or a top-five coach?

I don’t believe there is any universe where this team keeps Ayton and throws Monty overboard. And I’m saying that as someone who’d be in favor of choosing Ayton over Monty.

 

[Raindog]

I don’t believe there is any universe where this team keeps Ayton and throws Monty overboard. And I’m saying that as someone who’d be in favor of choosing Ayton over Monty.

Agreed on both counts.

 

[1tinsoldier]

the problem with the "we will still have a Batman & Robin" speculation is that championships are won with a Batman, Robin, and Catwoman -- and Booker may still just be a Robin in 2 years, being paid like a Superman

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I think you're missing the point about pick swaps. Picks at the end of the first round don't have much value regardless. We all know that the success rate there is low. Maybe there are some front offices who have a special ability to sniff out talent at the point in the draft, or maybe the teams who have managed to do well there over the years (e.g. the Spurs) have just gotten lucky. But if it's a skill, we know that the Suns do not have that skill.

So the point isn't that a swap will make the Suns pick at 24 instead of 21, or whatever the details are. It's that a swap prevents the Suns from picking high, unless both the Suns and Nets are bad. You're looking at a period of maybe as long as eight years in which the Suns are almost guaranteed never to have a lottery pick, no matter how badly things go for them. That's the issue. Yes, the Suns will have a pick every other year, but the pick is unlikely to produce a quality player.

Frankly, the greatest value of late first-round picks is to sweeten trade offers. The idea of picking at 20-something a few years from now is somehow a lot more appealing than the idea of picking at 20-something today. But in a scenario where the Suns have already traded away every other pick until the end of time, they have no more trade sweeteners, because those every-other-year picks aren't tradeable. You're talking about a situation where, for several years, the Suns have nothing to trade other than the players they actually have under contract. (We will ignore the trade value of second-round picks, which are included in minor details only for cosmetic purposes.)

So, a few years from now, what can the Suns trade? Players in their rotation, who will be either the stars they want to keep, or low-salary tag-alongs that no one else will particularly want. No young talent. No future picks. Their hands will be completely tied.

When's the last time an NBA team went several years without the ability to make a trade? Has it ever happened? What's the longest the Suns have ever gone without making a trade? I'd be surprised if it's even as long as two years. Heck, it might not even be longer than one year.

You're talking about a team that can't improve through the draft, can't improve through trading, and is severely limited in how they can improve through free agency, because their team salary is already astronomical. For how many years?

So there’s a ton of hyperbole in this post. I’ll try to address each item.

We actually have no idea if the suns have the skill of identifying talent at the end of the first round as the current front office hasn’t exactly made a ton of picks there.

While your point about the swaps may be rooted in some academic accuracy it fails to take into account the actual facts here. The nets are going to be a gutted team after this offseason. They’ll be flush with picks, but that’s it. Even if they land an all star (unlikely) they aren’t winning for a long time. Look at OKC the last two seasons for a likely reflection of what loading up on picks looks like. And they had SGA - something this nets team likely won’t possess. So in all likelihood they’ll have terrible records. Even when Durant and Paul are gone we will likely still have book and bridges or cam. And cap room. And apparently a great recruiter in book. That means in all likelihood we will be better than the thunder. Which means the swaps likely won’t occur. And even if we end up in the lottery, they’ll still likely be worse than us, and the swaps won’t occur. So we will retain those picks.

Not to mention, if we give up 4 1sts and 3 swaps (which I don’t think we will - some firsts will come from an Ayton trade) at most that’s 7 seasons, but more likely 5 if we get two firsts from, say utah, for Ayton. So that’s five season. Durants contract runs 4 seasons. So there’s only a season that we would be without Booker, Durant, and bridges or cam. So again those picks are likely low picks, which you’ve just said are worthless (I don’t agree). We will also have those late round picks and can trade them in the year they exist. The target would be for vets to keep things rolling or future more lightly protected firsts. There is always a way to rebuild. We regularly see it in the nba in all sorts of scenarios.

We will not be the first team to trade a bevy of picks and swaps. And teams still somehow end up in trades that can improve a team. Heck people keep thinking the Chris Paul’s, hardens, John walls, and Russ westbrooks of the league are in tradable and they keep getting traded.

Will it likely take more time to rebuild? If we are talking through the draft, yes. But even a ton of high picks guarantees nothing - heck we don’t have to look further than our highest picks Alex Len, dragan bender, chriss, josh Jackson. We will have cap room and book recruiting. I wouldn’t be surprised if we reload rather scrapping it at that point if we’ve had success.

The alternative? Trade a disgruntled Ayton for like peanuts because unlike we’ve been assured, not many are exactly scrambling for him and the packages are less than inspiring. That squad would have 45-50 and fade written all over it, particularly when Paul was done. In other words, not even a shot at a championship.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I agree that it makes no sense that the Nets are allegedly willing to give Irving to the Lakers for Westbrook's giant contract (which they will likely immediately buy out of) and a bunch of throwaway dreck, but they will only trade Durant to the Suns if they are willing to send back a king's ransom.

The media seems pretty invested in shaping the narrative of where these star players end up. I've seen several stories over the last couple days basically insulting Nets management for possibly sending Durant to Phoenix (where he wants to go) as well as for considering sending Irving anywhere other than the Lakers. Make of that what you will.

This is because we have a king's ransom to give and the Lakers do not. And, of course, it's the Lakers and they get everything for free. If there is a Durant trade, I assume it will include assets we get from an Ayton trade, pieces like Saric and Crowder, plus either CamJ or Mikal, but not both.

As far as Cheese's comments on bridges burned between the team and Ayton, I cannot comment on that really. I just completely checked out of the NBA halfway through game 7. I have not watched, read, or listened to anything, so relations could have deteriorated more than I am aware. However, they would be fools to allow bad blood to force them into a bad trade. It would be better to keep him than give him away. This is an asset that they cannot afford to just let walk.