Why Tebow Wins

Harry

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Contrary to some schools of thought, I do know subscribe to the divine intervention theory of Tebow’s success. Neither do I think God has the Broncos in the great football pool in the sky.

The great motivational speaker Earl Nightingale used to advise that if you do the exact opposite of what the majority of the people do, you are likely to be successful. That’s Tebow in a nutshell. In this case, here’s why it works.

1. Upcoming opponents find trying to emulate Tebow with their scout team is almost impossible. Even if they have some player running a Wildcat formation, he won’t handle the ball as deceptively as Tebow. The defense simply can’t prepare for what it will be seeing.

2. Tebow reads defenses against this offense like Warner read defenses against his passing schemes. Tebow is so accurate in his decision making that he almost always optimizes the outcome of a play. On the inside option whether he hands the ball off or pulls it back, he almost always makes the best possible choice. That doesn’t mean the play always works, but it does mean he gets the best result.

3. Here’s one you won’t see elsewhere; he throws the ball adequately. People forget he completed over 66% of his passes in college for nearly 10,000 yards. Admittedly he doesn’t throw a great deep ball, but he’s solid on the other throws. Add in the fact that they’ve messed with his throwing motion and it will take time for Tebow to fully adapt. If you haven’t noticed or watched the games, his throwing has improved week to week. If they stack up the line, he will hurt them passing. He won’t make you forget either Manning when throwing, but he will get positive results.

4. Tebow leads by example. He is reckless with his own safety. His work ethic is among the best in the game. He never asks more of his teammates than he asks of himself. Players love to play with him and his positive attitude inspires them to succeed. Finally he takes full responsibility for outcomes. He never throws a teammate under a bus and always rises to their defense.

5. Tebow is not like most other QBs that run. You could make a decent argument that Cam Newton is a similar runner, but he’s being groomed to be a pass-first guy. That said in the open field they offer about the same profile. They are very big, very agile and very determined. They intimidate most corners and even some outside linebackers. They don’t go down easily when hit and if a defender uses poor tackling technique they just shake off that defender. For the defense it’s like playing against a backfield with two good power runners. It’s not even like most Wildcat alignments as most clubs use quicker, small ball carriers to receive the snap. If the defense ends up with a corner or even many safeties being the first line of defense against Tebow, the play is likely going for positive yardage.

6. Tebow has great field vision. Not only can he read the defense, but once he hits a hole he makes excellent decisions as to the most vulnerable point of the defense. He often goes through the line of scrimmage untouched and is on the linebacker before they can reset to get maximum leverage. Tebow is a downhill runner with good balance. He is not intimidated by contact and will often run over bigger defenders as he quickly gain momentum before they get anchored.

7. By primarily using the run, time is taken off the clock. The Denver defense typically spends fewer minutes on the field and remains fresher. The Broncos are starting to have longer drives and the defense is getting more rest. This also gives the defense time to regroup and realign if the opposing offense gets an early jump on them or does something unexpected. All of this has impact mostly at the end of games.

I don’t know if Tebow can get a team to the Super Bowl, but he can win in this league if a team is willing to go all in on letting him play his game.
 

SeattleCard

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Great write-up... thanks! I've enjoyed watching Tebow play and do hope for his success. He is bucking conventional wisdom.
 

RedRob

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I can't help but remember when the Cards play the Broncos where he looked like one of the worst QBs I've ever seen in a PRESEASON football game.

# 4 is my biggest concern/beef with this type of QB play, it's not a matter of if but when is he going to hurt and effectively be done.

Don't get me wrong, I admire the guy's propensity for winning. I'd summarize my opinion of his QB play as, "I'm not a hater, just not a believer."
 

DoTheDew

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7. By primarily using the run, time is taken off the clock. The Denver defense typically spends fewer minutes on the field and remains fresher. The Broncos are starting to have longer drives and the defense is getting more rest. This also gives the defense time to regroup and realign if the opposing offense gets an early jump on them or does something unexpected. All of this has impact mostly at the end of games.

I don’t know if Tebow can get a team to the Super Bowl, but he can win in this league if a team is willing to go all in on letting him play his game.

This is the most important one and is also to a lesser extent why Skelton is winning even though he's the inferior passer. Whiz is less pass happy with Skelton, as a result the defense gets more of a breather and the team as a whole is much better.
 

kerouac9

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I think that opposing players get worried about being embarrassed when they have to try and tackle Tebow. Wolfley (who I think is frequently a blowhard) talks about the "five-hole" for a runner and how it intimidates defenders. I think that Tebow makes this worse.

Like with Vick in Atlanta, I think that the biggest problem for Broncos' personnel people is how to manage Tebow's wide receiver corps. They traded away all their assets on the outside. Whom do you get to play with Tebow? Brian Finneran types? I said on a different thread that I think a guy like DeSean Jackson would be an interesting pairing, but would he settle for six to eight targets a game?

The NFL is an entertainment business first and foremost. It's difficult to argue that Tebow ball isn't entertaining, at least for now.
 

Shane

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Two words Harry: great Defense
 

TJ

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Two words Harry: great Defense

People forget that they have some nice pieces on defense. Dumervil, Miller, Dawkins and Bailey immediately come to mind. In addition, they play in the AFC West and have had the benefit of playing teams like NYJ at home on a Thursday.

However, you can't completely discount Tebow's contribution. Let's say you're a defensive coordinator and just got done game planning for a passing team, such as Green Bay. Then, you have to scrap your entire game plan from the previous week and spend extra time prepping your defensive players for a completely different challenge when going against Denver. Not fun.

I believe this type of offense has no sustainability, and John Elway knows it. That's why he's spent so much time scouting players like Nick Foles for the 2012 draft. Defenses will eventually catch on to Tebow's tendencies and put him in obvious passing situations, where unless he makes wholesale changes to his mechanics, will not succeed. The NFL is way too fast for this style of offense long-term. Eventually, the Broncos will need a true passing QB and depth at WR.

The NFL has become a passing league as evidence of historic running teams, such as the Steelers, all of a sudden airing the ball out like a college spread offense. Gimmick offenses like the Wildcat had their day in the NFL, but are employed rarely anymore because of the relatively low rate of success.
 

DoTheDew

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Two words Harry: great Defense

Running the ball more makes the defense play better. They are on the field for less total time, and as a result have more energy as the game winds down. If this were not true, why could they not win with Orton this year and last year when he put up better passing #s?
 

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I wonder what Mitch thinks about his development. He was really really impressed by him as a draft prospect and saw him as a successful NFL QB. I also loved him because of his leadership and work ethic although i always had some doubts about him as a passer. He gets better and better every week inside the pocket. He is so good at what he does that changing scheme makes all of the sense. The best way to develop is while you win. It keeps the confidence of a player.

I must admit that i love to watch Denver lately and it is because of Tebow and their defense. I also think that the long drives and all the running improves the Denver defense and the Denver defense plays better and doesn't give up many points which allows the offense to run the Tebow option offense. It's enhancement of the two units, they are definitely in complete harmony right now.
 

ajcardfan

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Two words Harry: great Defense

This AND the most important thing that Tebow is doing that no one in this thread mentioned .... he's taking care of the ball.

He's had only one INT and no fumbles so far. With all the close games they've won, it's highly probable that one or two turnovers a game could've cost them wins in all of them. And, he wouldn't be nearly as interesting.
 

THESMEL

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I got a tenpoint crossbow that shoots straighter than a TEBOW
TEBOWING is when I mount it on the steady eddy.
so it looks like a T
than I butcher T-bone steaks from the kill.

I'm glad Tebowing broke the normal up, like the Wildcat.

But Whiz is still alergic to running and addicted to passing.
Balance is a good way to fly a Cardinal.
 

Jetstream Green

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Tebow= luck or divine intervention...one must say that because the guy really is a way below average QB. He is on a winning team because of a great defense. Case closed. And the ability to do nothing with the ball except for the most part but not turn it over is not enough to be a QB. Denver needs to draft another runningback next year to upgrade their current version of what a QB is if they intend to this again next season. Personally I have nothing against Tebow and think he is a great person, but that does not make him a NFL QB
 

Cheesebeef

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Tebow= luck or divine intervention...one must say that because the guy really is a way below average QB. He is on a winning team because of a great defense.

if this is the case, why was that defense giving up 28 ppg before he came in? I'm not one to call Tebow THE reason they've turned it around, but the fact that he doesn't make mistakes, makes plays on the ground, helping a great running game which keeps the D off the field and shortens the game and makes plays at the end of games means this ain't divine intervention. keep turnovers low, run the ball and play solid d and you can win in this league... not a Super Bowl... nor can you sustain it for long periods of multiple seasons IMO, but to say he's just lucky or their winning in spite of him flies in the face of the fact that they were WOEFUL without him at QB.
 

Jetstream Green

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as I said, then they must draft a even better runningback to play the position if they are comfortable with this style of play. They are winning, true, with his take off and run style but that would not be consistent enough for me if I was a coach. The only running QB's I have seen which could also pass where Randal Cunningham and Steve Young, Tarkenton could do it as well and Tebow does not appear to have their passing ability...not even close. Just looking at it from the standpoint of the ability of getting to a Superbowl, like you said, which would be difficult with a QB so limited in a position where he is expected to be able to pass.
 

conraddobler

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No one has had an offseason to ponder what to do about it yet, once they do it'll get much harder for him to win.

It's like playing a team from Mars in the NFL now, teams are baffled as to what to do but they will figure it out and he will be forced into at least somewhat of a more traditional role before it's all over.

The only way he continues to win is if he gets better at passing the ball.

IMO a variant of how the Cardinals played Vick would work, stack the box, bump and run man coverage on the WR's and instead of worrying about sacking him or getting to him in a hurry, just contain him and force him to throw the ball.

The important thing would be for everyone to stay in their lanes, don't open any holes, stack the box, he options it or runs either way he's not going to get the room he needs.

Obviously if he was Peyton Manning this would be suicide, but luckily he's not

He's not going to get away with 6 pass attempts a game more than this year, teams are going to force him to beat them throwing the ball.
 
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Stout

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However, you can't completely discount Tebow's contribution. Let's say you're a defensive coordinator and just got done game planning for a passing team, such as Green Bay. Then, you have to scrap your entire game plan from the previous week and spend extra time prepping your defensive players for a completely different challenge when going against Denver. Not fun.

Um, yeah, that's not the problem. What you just described is a defensive coordinator's and his players' jobs. Every week it's a new game plan against someone different. Bread and butter of the NFL. Tebow simply requires that you implement a different plan accordingly. If a DC starts complaining about Tebow on the basis that it makes him change his game plan, he doesn't deserve to be a DC. That's why he gets paid.
 

Duckjake

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Um, yeah, that's not the problem. What you just described is a defensive coordinator's and his players' jobs. Every week it's a new game plan against someone different. Bread and butter of the NFL. Tebow simply requires that you implement a different plan accordingly. If a DC starts complaining about Tebow on the basis that it makes him change his game plan, he doesn't deserve to be a DC. That's why he gets paid.

Wait a minute. I thought it took at least a year to just learn the scheme.

:p
 

NeverSayDieFan

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Great insights, Harry...

I think #2 is dead-on accurate. The "great"ones (...And I'm NOT saying Tebow has acheived any kind of greatness at this point) have a "feel" for the game that others simply do not. Sure you can study for hours and get ideas about what to do BUT the great ones don't think...they just DO!

...And while I agree that GOD is probably not in on the football pools or in the habit of making the ball bounce a certain way to favor one team over the other, it is His "promise". Those who put their TRUST in the LORD will be blessed! Does that mean a Super Bowl championship if you just say Jesus this...and Jesus that?Well, Jesus and a GREAT "D" can win you a whole lot of games, as the Broncos are discovering.

Always appreciate your comments , Harry. GO CARDINALS! :D
 

Duckjake

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I think #2 is dead-on accurate. The "great"ones (...And I'm NOT saying Tebow has acheived any kind of greatness at this point) have a "feel" for the game that others simply do not. Sure you can study for hours and get ideas about what to do BUT the great ones don't think...they just DO!

...And while I agree that GOD is probably not in on the football pools or in the habit of making the ball bounce a certain way to favor one team over the other, it is His "promise". Those who put their TRUST in the LORD will be blessed! Does that mean a Super Bowl championship if you just say Jesus this...and Jesus that?Well, Jesus and a GREAT "D" can win you a whole lot of games, as the Broncos are discovering.

Always appreciate your comments , Harry. GO CARDINALS! :D

I don't know. Look who Quarterbacked the Cardinals to the Super Bowl after 40 years of failures. :eek:
 

slanidrac16

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I'm not a believer.

I would have to dare him to beat me with the pass. I'd play a 5 man front and not worry too much about pressure as I would concentrate on gaps and keeping him in the pocket.

They will not make the playoffs. Tebow and the Bronco's will come back down to earth.
 

Pariah

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If he just won a couple of games like he does, then you could chalk it up to luck. The fact is, he wins like this more often than not. There's something to him--something that's not measured in the box scores--that's making him a successful NFL QB. Clearly, he's not the kind of QB we're used to seeing, even for a scrambler, but the fact is he IS a QB and he's winning games.
 

Duckjake

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I'm not a believer.

I would have to dare him to beat me with the pass. I'd play a 5 man front and not worry too much about pressure as I would concentrate on gaps and keeping him in the pocket.

They will not make the playoffs. Tebow and the Bronco's will come back down to earth.

Is Tebow running after dropping back to pass or running plays designed for him to be the ball carrier? If he's running zone reads or whatever he won't be in the pocket. For example vs San Diego in the 1st quarter the Chargers have a 5 man front and 8 in the box and Tebow still runs for 11 yards on the zone read/option.
 
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D-Dogg

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I have finally nailed it and reconciled the Tebow conundrum I've been having. Tebow isn't a good NFL QB. However, he's one of the best backyard QBs of all time. I realized it watching him scramble around as the play broke down, waiting and directing things to happen, then throwing a TD.

He's not a guy who is going to read defenses like a picture book (Manning) or gunsling all over the place (Rodgers). But when the play breaks down, he's at his best. I can watch and cheer for that.
 
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