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Texas A&M (22-10, 11-7 SEC) earned its third consecutive bid to the NCAA Tournament after finishing the season with 22 wins and 11 victories in SEC play. It received a 4-seed in the South region and is set to face 13-seed Yale on Thursday night. Entering the week, the Aggies are on upset alert due to their offensive issues and poor 3-point defense, as the Bulldogs are one of the top shooting teams in the country.
However, if the Aggies can get past Yale, they will face either 5-seed Michigan or 12-seed UC San Diego in the second round, and they have a solid chance to return to the Sweet 16 for the first time in nearly a decade.
For those who cover the SEC, Texas A&M has been an underrated team for most of the season, brought up in "what if" scenarios when discussing the NCAA Tournament, as the play of senior guards Wade Taylor IV, Zhuric Phelps, and Manny Obaseki will determine how far the Aggies go. In contrast, the team's deep forward rotation, including junior Pharrel Payne, must thrive in the paint and outrebound each opponent.
Still, Texas A&M's weak 69% free throw average will continue to be the talking point ahead of Thursday's game, knowing that last season's Round of 32 loss to 2-seed Houston resulted in missed free throws that could have resulted in a win in regulation. Looking ahead to Texas A&M vs. Yale, here are two reasons the Aggies made it to the Round of 32 and beyond and two reasons why a loss in the first round is also realistic.
As I said before, Texas A&M is shooting 69.5% from the stripe, while Wade Taylor IV leads the team at 88.3% and is the only player outside of reserve guard CJ Wilcher who shoots at least 80%. Nearly half of Texas A&M's 10 losses throughout the season were due to missed free throws late in games, including the late-season home loss to Tennessee.
Against Yale, if the Aggies get into the bonus late in a close game, making or missing free throws will more than likely dictate if the Aggies move onto the second round.
Texas A&M's Achilles heel this season, and, if I'm being honest, the biggest problem during head coach Buzz Williams' tenure has been the team's poor 3-point defense, allowing teams to hit nearly 34% of their deep shots. At the same time, a handful of random opposing shooters have shot their way to career highs against A&M's perimeter defense.
Yale, like most Ivy League programs, is an excellent shooting team, averaging nearly 40% from beyond the arc, so, for what would seem like the first time this season, the Aggies need to shut down the perimeter as much as possible and force the Bulldogs to inside.
One of the primary reasons Texas A&M could make it to the Elite 8 for the first time in program history is based on the Aggies' elite rebounding advantage, leading the nation in offensive rebounds and ranked third in second-chance scoring opportunities. Size and strength in the front court are everything, and with Henry Coleman, Andersson Garcia, Solomon Washington, and most importantly, junior big man Pharrel Payne manning the paint, the Aggies hold a stark advantage that hopefully pays off.
Texas A&M's 7th-ranked defense (KenPom) has been a problem for every team in the country this season outside of the Florida Gators, whose elite offense and impressive defense could result in a third National Title in the last two decades. Still, A&M's blowout loss to Florida was just a six-point game early in the second half due to Buzz Williams' defensive adjustments.
The Aggies' offseason conditioning has prepared them to play man defense at a high level and effortlessly switch to zone when needed. Yale will shoot jumpers and 3-pointers at a high rate, and if Texas A&M can keep the game close with a lead or small deficit at halftime, the Aggies can eliminate Yale's preferred offensive game plan.
Texas A&M has been a favorite to fall in the first round since Selection Sunday due to Yale's offensive efficiency and Texas A&M's offensive inconsistency and 3-point defense. The key points listed will result in a win or loss for the Maroon & White on Thursday, so the blueprint is much simpler than some may realize.
Texas A&M will face Yale on Thursday, March 20 at 6:45 p.m. CT. The game will air on TBS.
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Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes and opinions. Follow Cameron on X: @CameronOhnysty.
This article originally appeared on Aggies Wire: March Madness upset predictions: Is Texas A&M basketball in trouble?
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However, if the Aggies can get past Yale, they will face either 5-seed Michigan or 12-seed UC San Diego in the second round, and they have a solid chance to return to the Sweet 16 for the first time in nearly a decade.
For those who cover the SEC, Texas A&M has been an underrated team for most of the season, brought up in "what if" scenarios when discussing the NCAA Tournament, as the play of senior guards Wade Taylor IV, Zhuric Phelps, and Manny Obaseki will determine how far the Aggies go. In contrast, the team's deep forward rotation, including junior Pharrel Payne, must thrive in the paint and outrebound each opponent.
Still, Texas A&M's weak 69% free throw average will continue to be the talking point ahead of Thursday's game, knowing that last season's Round of 32 loss to 2-seed Houston resulted in missed free throws that could have resulted in a win in regulation. Looking ahead to Texas A&M vs. Yale, here are two reasons the Aggies made it to the Round of 32 and beyond and two reasons why a loss in the first round is also realistic.
Free throw issues
As I said before, Texas A&M is shooting 69.5% from the stripe, while Wade Taylor IV leads the team at 88.3% and is the only player outside of reserve guard CJ Wilcher who shoots at least 80%. Nearly half of Texas A&M's 10 losses throughout the season were due to missed free throws late in games, including the late-season home loss to Tennessee.
Against Yale, if the Aggies get into the bonus late in a close game, making or missing free throws will more than likely dictate if the Aggies move onto the second round.
3-point defense
Texas A&M's Achilles heel this season, and, if I'm being honest, the biggest problem during head coach Buzz Williams' tenure has been the team's poor 3-point defense, allowing teams to hit nearly 34% of their deep shots. At the same time, a handful of random opposing shooters have shot their way to career highs against A&M's perimeter defense.
Yale, like most Ivy League programs, is an excellent shooting team, averaging nearly 40% from beyond the arc, so, for what would seem like the first time this season, the Aggies need to shut down the perimeter as much as possible and force the Bulldogs to inside.
Offensive rebounds
One of the primary reasons Texas A&M could make it to the Elite 8 for the first time in program history is based on the Aggies' elite rebounding advantage, leading the nation in offensive rebounds and ranked third in second-chance scoring opportunities. Size and strength in the front court are everything, and with Henry Coleman, Andersson Garcia, Solomon Washington, and most importantly, junior big man Pharrel Payne manning the paint, the Aggies hold a stark advantage that hopefully pays off.
Second-half defense
Texas A&M's 7th-ranked defense (KenPom) has been a problem for every team in the country this season outside of the Florida Gators, whose elite offense and impressive defense could result in a third National Title in the last two decades. Still, A&M's blowout loss to Florida was just a six-point game early in the second half due to Buzz Williams' defensive adjustments.
The Aggies' offseason conditioning has prepared them to play man defense at a high level and effortlessly switch to zone when needed. Yale will shoot jumpers and 3-pointers at a high rate, and if Texas A&M can keep the game close with a lead or small deficit at halftime, the Aggies can eliminate Yale's preferred offensive game plan.
Conclusion
Texas A&M has been a favorite to fall in the first round since Selection Sunday due to Yale's offensive efficiency and Texas A&M's offensive inconsistency and 3-point defense. The key points listed will result in a win or loss for the Maroon & White on Thursday, so the blueprint is much simpler than some may realize.
Texas A&M will face Yale on Thursday, March 20 at 6:45 p.m. CT. The game will air on TBS.
Get your Brackets for 2025 NCAA men's basketball tournament
Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes and opinions. Follow Cameron on X: @CameronOhnysty.
This article originally appeared on Aggies Wire: March Madness upset predictions: Is Texas A&M basketball in trouble?
Continue reading...
